The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these analyses, new Colombian scenarios are discussed, taking into account intentionality towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Following the entrepreneurship research, it is suggested that innovative entrepreneurial activity is linked to long-term economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the role of innovative entrepreneurship in Colombian business cycle scenarios using system dynamics (SD) modelling. Here, we approach futures studies, testing dynamic hypotheses concerning development based on societal and socioeconomic integration, in which innovative entrepreneurship is highly relevant. The model, supported by circular flow analysis and Schumpeterian theory, shows how this type of entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable economic growth during the simulation period (2003–2032). To achieve a 6.77% average growth rate (the higher scenario), policies regarding knowledge transfer from specialized foreign individuals, incumbent firms and universities, as well as incentives for entrepreneurial societies and collectivism, are discussed.     

Section 1. Description of the Riskworld project process

This paper describes the Riskworld project design and process in further detail and provides an indication of how the ideas, key themes and questions evolved at each phase.     

Regions and French society: Three scenarios of the future

This paper is a translated version of the résumé, “Territoires et société”, of the report presented to the Budapest UN ECE seminar on long-term perspectives for human settlements development.     

Health scenarios and policy making Lessons from the Netherlands

A decade ago the Dutch government established the Steering Committee on Futures Health Scenarios (STG) to organize and facilitate research and debate on alternative futures in public health. The STG has since carried out dozens of scenario projects on specific health topics, and the resulting reports have played an important role in the decision-making process within the health sector. The researchers, policy makers, and administrators who have been involved with STG activities have also learned a great deal about which methodologies, processes and organizational arrangements are best for this kind of enterprise. Those lessons are shared here for the benefit of other health agencies interested in carrying out similar programmes.     

Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific

The article describes further work to validate and assess a method of futures projection. The full methodology is shown in the context of a projection of plausible future trends for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific. A number of scenarios are developed and it is shown that the future for that region may be fraught with considerable problems. Finally, the methodology is assessed and suggestions for future work are made.     

International CO2 taxation and the dynamics of fossil fuel markets

International CO₂ taxation may have major implications for fossil fuel markets. These effects must be taken into account in calculating the net gain from CO₂ taxation. The paper assumes that buyers have formed an agency that applies a CO₂ tax and sellers are competitive or constitute a resource cartel. When sellers are competitive, buyers' agency may use monopsony power by applying an import tariff. At the resulting time-consistent equilibrium, the sellers lose their resource rent. In contrast, the solution where the sellers' cartel maximizes its profits is time inconsistent. At the time-consistent Nash feedback equilibrium, the seller's monopoly power vanishes asymptotically. The sellers' export fee reduces the buyers' pollution tax. At this equilibrium, the buyers' pollution tax includes an import subsidy, and the tax falls below the present value of the marginal pollution damage. In the Nash feedback equilibrium, higher pollution damage may imply higher initial producer prices, although this effect is always the reverse in the Pareto optimum.     

The future of the motorcar: Alternative scenarios

In contrast to conventional forecasts usually based on constant cost projections, the author considers the future of the motorcar as depending on dynamic changes in the pattern of costs and values related to private car ownership and use. The social, environmental, material and technological factors most influencing the future cost of motoring are analysed, and desirable policies are examined. The results are projected into two scenarios, high and low, of the future conditions for private motoring. The analysis is focused on the Netherlands, but is generally applicable to other Western European countries.