中国城市新兴技术的双元创新路径与发生机制——以生物医药技术为例

以生物医药技术为例，利用专利数据，建立技术共现网络与创新合作网络，分析2000—2018年中国生物医药技术演化特征、双元创新格局及城市间创新联系，利用层次回归模型探究其双元创新发生机制及路径。结果表明，生物医药细分技术间的可达性逐渐提高，2013年以后技术体系化程度显著提高，技术融合呈现出群落特征；城市渐进式创新与突破式创新存在空间正向关联，但两者具有不同发生机制；城市在创新网络中的中心性地位对知识搜索深度和渐进式创新更重要，而其中介性地位对知识搜索宽度和突破式创新更重要；知识搜索深度更利于渐进式创新，而搜索宽度更利于突破式创新；关系强度在渐进式创新过程中起正向调节作用，在突破式创新过程中起负向调节作用；不同类型城市在网络位置、知识搜索、关系强度方面表现出不同演化规律，使城市在创新路径上产生分化。     

颠覆性技术关注方向演化研究

关注颠覆性技术创新方向演变对于构建颠覆性技术“发现—遴选—培养”机制，挖掘重大颠覆性技术选题具有重要意义。利用三螺旋协同性测度模型量化政府、产业、学术界3类主体对颠覆性技术关注方向的协同程度，构建颠覆性技术行动者网络，利用社会网络分析法解析网络结构形式下政、产、学三方关注颠覆性技术创新的耦合方向，探究高度耦合技术方向的演化特点。最后，获得技术关注方向协同性、技术关注耦合方向特征、技术关注方向耦合时间时序特征、技术关注方向耦合机构特征、高度耦合技术方向演化特征5个方面的结论。     

万向集团国际化转型升级中的社会技术创新研究

基于社会技术理论,从商业模式、政策法规和文化整合3个层面研究社会技术创新在万向集团由“嵌入式”向“构建式”转型升级过程中的作用。万向集团在国际化发展过程中形成了以构建全球生产网络模式为代表的商业模式层面上的社会技术创新、以汽车产业促进政策与新能源汽车充电设施发展新规为代表的政策法规层面的社会技术创新和以“合金式”企业文化为代表的文化整合创新。万向集团国际化社会技术创新路径对于我国民营企业走出去具有重要参考价值。     

The improvement trajectory of PCR DNA replication and ERP software as general purpose technologies: an exploratory study of ‘anchor technologies’

As an effort to peek into the black box of large-scale general purpose technologies (GPTs) like biotechnology and information technology, we develop the concept of ‘anchor technologies’. An anchor technology is a core technology of a large-scale GPT (‘mega-GPT’) that opens a new era in the development and diffusion of the mega-GPT. We trace the historical evolution of two process-based, yet otherwise very different, anchor technologies: enterprise resource planning (ERP) software within the mega-GPT of information technology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) DNA replication within the mega-GPT of biotechnology. The case studies reveal the utility of ‘productisation’ as an important means of commercialising innovations in anchor technologies; more generally, the interplay between improvement in process-based technologies and in complementary product-based technologies provides insight into how ERP and PCR were able to sustain a path of continued improvement within their respective mega-GPT.     

技术积累提高了区域创新数量还是创新质量

在创新型国家建设背景下，提高创新质量至关重要。以高技术产业为例，综合采用联立方程模型、面板门槛模型、贝叶斯向量自回归模型，研究技术积累与创新数量、创新质量的关系。研究结果表明：技术积累对创新数量的贡献大于创新质量；创新数量与创新质量间的协调性不高；技术积累对创新数量的贡献中其自身、研发人员、创新质量的门槛效应呈递减趋势；随着创新数量增大，技术积累对创新数量的作用弹性逐步提高；当研发经费处于中等水平时技术积累对创新数量的弹性影响最大，对创新质量具有较强的规模经济效应。     

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects: An Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand in the Commercial Building Sector

It is widely recognized that the adoption of energy saving innovations can induce an increase in the usage of the corresponding technologies and thus can possibly increase energy consumption. Among other concerns is that uncertainties regarding the magnitude of this “rebound effect” can deter policy makers from promoting energy efficiency. This paper analyzes the rebound effects of the adoption of energy efficient technologies in commercial buildings. Based upon a structural model of technology adoption and subsequent energy demand at the building level, the empirical results are that energy efficiency can reduce electricity use by about 35 % and natural gas consumption by about 50 %.     

Trade-mediated biotechnology transfer and its effective absorption: an application to the U.S. forestry sector

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.     

颠覆性技术与商业模式共演过程研究

以浙江绿源电动自行车为案例研究对象，采用纵向案例研究方法，探索了颠覆性技术与商业模式共演过程，归纳了各阶段颠覆性技术与商业模式的渐次演化规律，即颠覆性技术经历了技术集成—技术调整—技术升级的演变，商业模式经历了生存导向—低盈利导向—品牌导向的演变，继而分析了各阶段颠覆性技术与商业模式的静态适配及动态协同演化关系，发现两者动态匹配是实现可持续颠覆性效果的重要模式，对后发企业获取竞争优势具有重要启示。     

Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.     

The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study*

Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.     

Productivity, innovation and R&D: Micro evidence for Italy

By exploiting a rich firm level data-base, this paper presents novel empirical evidence on the effect of process and product innovations on productivity, as well as on the role played by R&D and fixed capital investment in enhancing the likelihood of introducing innovations at the firm level. Our results imply that process innovation has a large impact on productivity. Furthermore, R&D spending is strongly positively associated with the probability of introducing a new product, whereas fixed capital spending increases the likelihood of introducing a process innovation. The latter result might reflect the fact that new technologies are frequently embodied in new capital goods. However, the effect of fixed investment on the probability of introducing a process innovation is magnified by R&D spending internal to the firm. This implies that R&D can affect productivity growth by facilitating the absorption of new technologies.     

Organizing growth

We propose a framework to study the impact of information and communication technology on growth through its impact on organization and innovation. Agents accumulate knowledge to use available technologies and invent new ones. The use of a technology requires the development of organizations to coordinate the work of experts, which takes time. We find that while advances in information technology always increase growth, improvements in communication technology may lead to lower growth and even to stagnation, since the payoff to exploiting available technologies through organizations increases relative to the payoff from developing new innovations.     

Intellectual property rights and innovation in developing countries

This paper studies intellectual property rights (IPRs) and innovation in developing countries. A model is developed to illustrate the trade-off between imitating foreign technologies and encouraging domestic innovation in a developing country's choice of IPRs. It is shown that innovations in a developing country increase in its IPRs, and a country's IPRs can depend on its level of development non-monotonically, first decreasing and then increasing. Empirical analysis, with a panel of data for 64 developing countries, confirms both the positive impact of IPRs on innovations in developing countries and the presence of a U-shaped relationship between IPRs and economic development.     

Competing incremental and breakthrough innovation in a model of product evolution

This paper develops a growth model in which product cycles arise endogenously from investment in incremental and breakthrough innovations. Incumbent firms invest in incremental technology improvements with the aim of reducing production costs. Market entrants develop breakthrough product designs in order to capture the market from vintage product lines. The competing objectives of the two types of innovation generate product cycles within an environment of creative destruction, as new products displace old and are then manufactured using production technologies that are continuously refined. Investigating the relationship between innovation incentives and the average length of product cycles, we characterized three stable patterns of product evolution: incremental innovation alone, breakthrough innovation alone, and product cycles with both types of innovation. Numerical examples suggest that when the market exhibits stable product cycles, subsidies to either type of innovation raise the rate of economic growth and improve welfare.     

企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展探析

文章基于党的十八大提出的大力推进生态文明建设战略,从推进绿色发展加快生态文明建设的思路出发,对企业绿色技术驱动绿色发展问题进行了研究。文章运用宏观与微观相结合、理论和实践相统一的研究方法,在阐明了企业绿色技术创新是推进绿色发展的必然选择的基础上,从宏观和微观两个层面提出了绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的途径和方法。从微观层面指出了企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的基本途径,即企业在生产方式上,要通过开发利用绿色技术,建造绿色企业,发展绿色生产等措施以实现企业绿色技术创新;在技术运用上,要大力开发清洁生产技术和资源化技术,以推进企业绿色技术创新成果转化;从宏观层面给出了企业绿色技术创新驱动绿色发展的对策建议,即在宏观保障上,积极建构有利于企业绿色技术创新的社会舆论、政策制度和市场体系,以保障企业绿色技术驱动绿色发展的实施。     

基于跨案例研究的颠覆性技术演进特征分析

在梳理前人研究成果的基础上，得到颠覆性技术演进的14个特征范畴，从低端颠覆和高端颠覆视角选取电动自行车等4项不同类型颠覆性技术演进特征进行跨案例分析，遵循复制法对特征范畴进行反复修正、补充与融合，分别得到12个低端颠覆性技术演进特征和13个高端颠覆性技术演进特征，并据此构建全过程视角下颠覆性技术特征模型。通过对两种颠覆性技术演进特征进行对比分析，总结出在创造性、异轨性和迭代性上的特征共性，以及在价值主张、价值路线和价值检验上的特征差异。     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

Income inequality and the development of environmental technologies

Within rich countries, a large dispersion in the capacity of generating environmental innovations appears correlated to the level of inequality. Previous works analyze the relationship between inequality and environmental quality in a static setting. This paper builds a dynamic model more suitable to analyze technological externalities driven by the emergence of a new demand for green products. Under fairly general assumptions on technology and preferences, we show that: 1. the relationship between inequality and environmental innovation is highly non-linear and crucially depends on per-capita income; 2. an excessive inequality harms the development of environmental technologies especially in rich countries. Key to our results is the fact that externalities generated by pioneer consumers of green products benefit the entire population only for relatively low income distances. The empirical analysis robustly confirms our theoretical results, that is: whereas for rich countries inequality negatively affects the diffusion of innovations, per-capita income is paramount in poorer ones.     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角,阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰,通过对主路径进行调整,提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中,以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中,以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术,强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用,占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知,通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局,为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

人工智能技术对碳排放的影响

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入推进,人工智能技术在应对气候变化方面扮演重要角色,并赋能“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。利用2006—2019年中国内地省级面板数据,考察人工智能技术对碳排放的影响。研究发现：人工智能技术与碳排放之间呈倒U型关系,即当人工智能技术达到一定阈值后,其碳减排效应逐渐凸显;人工智能技术主要通过提高能源利用效率实现碳减排;在东部和西部地区,人工智能技术与碳排放之间存在显著倒U型关系,而在中部地区,人工智能技术对碳排放发挥持续促进作用。因此,在推进“双碳”目标过程中,需要以绿色低碳发展为目标开发人工智能技术,正确引导人工智能在碳减排领域的研发应用,针对不同区域实际制定差异化发展政策。