制度因素与贸易的边界效应

本文将制度变量纳入McCallum模型,在前人基础上提出规范研究的"贸易制度假说";据此,通过我国2000-2004年进出口数据和国内贸易估算数据,进行FGLS和Tobit回归,基本验证了先前的假说。结果认为我国贸易的边界效应在样本期内出现下降的趋势,制度因素可以解释2000-2004年间我国出口边界效应下降的56.8%。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文介绍了双边贸易和贸易效应引力模型的研究进展,指出本文的创新之处。然后,通过建立两个引力模型进行实证研究得出结论。中国—东盟自由贸易区下中国的静态贸易效应中贸易转移效应远远大于贸易创造效应,而且贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应之间的差额逐年增长。最后,本文对此做出了解释,并建议未来的研究内容可以集中分析某一特定产业的贸易效应。     

Intra-national versus international trade in the European Union: why do national borders matter?

The first objective of this paper is to estimate border effects among European Union countries. In this context, the specification of the gravity equation, together with the choice of the distance measure, are shown to be crucial for assessing the size of the border effect. The second objective is to evaluate the determinants of the cross-commodity variation in national border effects. Contrary to previous findings reported in the literature, we show that trade barriers do provide an explanation. In particular, technical barriers to trade, together with product-specific information costs, increase border effects, whereas non-tariff barriers are not significant. Our results further suggest that these barriers are not the only cause since the spatial clustering of firms is also found to matter.     

外商投资的技术转移、技术外溢及其结构差异--以福建外商直接投资计量模型分析为例

外商投资的技术外溢程度与其技术转移水平呈现倒U型函数关系,只有在一定阀值范围之内,跨国公司所转移技术对东道国的外溢效应才是积极的、正向的,否则就会产生负外溢效应或外溢效应减弱。福建三资企业技术外溢的计量模型分析也表明,由于技术转移阀值的存在,造成来自不同国家或地区外商直接投资的外溢效应具有明显的结构差异性。因此积极调整利用外资结构,提升外资企业的技术转移水平,对于增强外商直接投资的外溢效应具有重要意义。     

Gravity,Borders, and Regionalism: A Canada–US Sub-National Analysis

ABSTRACT

This article examines the extent to which trade costs influence the magnitude and direction of both east-west and north-south trade in Canada and the United States. With the aid of an alternative framework which pays attention to key estimation issues in the gravity literature, we garner further evidence in support of a decline, over time, in the home bias syndrome. Our results uphold the Linder hypothesis but refute the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment proposition. In light of the recently modernized trilateral trade agreement in North America, we conclude with policy lessons on buffering the Canadian economy from asymmetric trade shocks from its southern neighbor.     

安全标准与农产品贸易:中国与主要贸易伙伴的实证研究

国际农产品贸易引起争端的安全标准的大量存在,表明市场自身力量不足以纠正失灵,农产品市场的独有特征构成安全标准广泛实施的理由。文章测算了十年间一项具体农产品安全标准—黄曲霉素最大允许含量标准,对一组发达国家和一组包括中国在内的亚洲发展中国家的水果/坚果类产品的贸易影响程度。政策模拟结果显示,进口国协调采用国际标准将产生更大的贸易促进效果。     

对中国—智利自由贸易区贸易效应的引力模型分析

近年来,区域经济一体化的进程不断加快,这是世界经济发展的必然结果。随着中国与拉丁美洲经贸关系的不断发展,中国已和智利、秘鲁和哥斯达黎加三个拉美国家签订了自由贸易协定,为双方的贸易带来了可观的收益,极大地推动了中国参与区域经济一体化的进程。本文在综述国内外相关文献的基础上,以中国与智利的自由贸易协定为例,采用引力模型,定量研究两国的经济一体化程度以及区域经济一体化所创造的贸易效应。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应研究──基于引力模型“单国模式”的实证分析

本文以中国为视角,运用引力模型的"单国模式"对2002-2006年期间中国和133个贸易伙伴的贸易数据进行分析,考察中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立对中国与东盟国家进出口贸易的影响。实证结果表明,近几年中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立在一定程度上促进了中国同东盟国家的进出口贸易。     

欧盟商品市场一体化的影响因素研究:基于边界效应的视角

本文选用2000-2005年欧盟成员国之间以及欧盟成员国与外部主要贸易伙伴国之间的双边出口贸易额等数据,使用面板数据方法,基于边界效应的视角,分别探讨了欧盟25国和欧盟15国的商品市场一体化影响因素。结果表明:欧盟这样的区域贸易协定对其成员国具有正面影响。地理临近性和文化联系鼓励紧密的贸易伙伴,距离、税率和人口对双边贸易存在负面影响,这与以往的研究结果相同。非关税壁垒成为重要边界可部分解释欧盟25国的内部边界效应高于欧盟15国的研究结果。     

中欧贸易摩擦的趋势预测及其对双边关系的影响——基于引力模型的实证研究

随着中欧贸易的不断发展,中欧间贸易摩擦也在不断加大,对双边贸易关系产生了不小的影响。本文根据中欧贸易摩擦的现状,从时间维度和摩擦程度、摩擦形式、领域和范围、摩擦的性质和摩擦的层面等方面对其未来走向进行预测。利用贸易引力模型实证探讨了动植物检验检疫措施(SPS)、技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)和反倾销这三大主要壁垒对中欧间贸易所产生的影响,结果表明,中欧之间的贸易额与中国和欧盟各国的国内生产总值呈正相关性,与两国之间的距离呈负相关性,SPS、TBT和反倾销,对中欧之间的贸易额有抑制作用。并在此基础上预测中欧之间的双边贸易关系虽受到贸易壁垒的影响,但仍有很大的发展前景。     

一种采用刀切法的单通道信源数估计算法

针对现有信源数估计算法不能直接用于单通道接收模型且抑噪能力较差的问题,提出了一种采用刀切法的单通道信源数估计算法。该算法首先通过间隔抽样实现了单通道接收信号多维数的转换,得到矢量化空间;然后采用刀切法将此组空间重构多个协方差矩阵,经酉变换后结果取平均;最后通过循环迭代得到最优信源数。理论分析和仿真结果表明,该算法在白、色噪声环境下能有效抑制噪声,且在低信噪比及采样点较少时能更准确估计信源数,相较于传统的估计算法,显著提高了检测性能。     

脉冲实时测向算法的改进设计与实现

针对敌我识别（IFF）信号及战术空中导航（TACAN）信号侦察的需求,在传统相关干 涉仪测向模型基础上,改进设计出一种适合IFF和TACAN脉冲的高精度实时测向模型,并使用 甚高速硬件描述语言（VHDL）在FPGA内部实现。该模型可针对不同长度脉冲进行单脉冲快速 实时测向,可在检测到脉冲前沿后的3 μs内得到测向结果。VHDL的优化编程设计实现以及 工程的实际应用表明了该测向模型的实用性和有效性。     

The determinants of Turkey's exports to Islamic countries: The impact of political risks

Using the traditional gravity model, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of Turkish exports to 43 Islamic Development Bank member countries for the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper specifically investigates the effects of 12 political risk measures (bureaucracy quality, corruption, democratic accountability, government stability, internal and external conflict, investment profile, law and order, military in politics, religious and ethnic tensions, and socioeconomic conditions) in the importing countries on the total volume of exports of Turkey. After implementing various robustness checks, the paper finds that the government instability in the importing countries is negatively associated with the Turkish exports.     

基于引力模型的产业内贸易与区域经济一体化研究

产业内贸易和区域经济一体化是当今国际贸易领域关注的重大理论和实践问题,在新贸易理论中,两者在共同因素的作用下被有机地联系起来。本文结合产业内贸易与新区域经济一体化理论,运用贸易引力模型,对两者之间的关系做计量检验,进而为我国区域经济一体化进程和产业内贸易发展提供相关的政策建议。     

The Process of Fit Between the Contingency Factors of the Environment and the Structural Design Parameters

Abstract

This paper, using a sample of 150 Spanish companies of large size, aim to corroborate the postulates determined by the contingency models regarding the relationships between the organisational environment and structural design parameters. Our basic aim is to establish the different relative importance of each of the elements characterising the environment to the design parameters. The results obtained show that the first relation to be clearly observed is that between level of complexity of the environment and the degree of organicity of the structure. However, such an evident relationship is not observed between the degree of dynamism of the environment and the level of organicity. As for the relation between degree of hostility of the environment and the design parameters analysed, the contingent hypotheses that predict that the degree of centralisation of the structure increases with the hostility of the environment are confirmed.     

Integrating partitioned prices via computational estimation

This paper introduces computational estimation to the literature on consumers’ numerical cognition. Computational estimation involves simplifying an arithmetic problem via mathematical procedures to produce an approximate answer. Employing calculation knowledge and approximation together, consumers are likely to use computational estimation as it is relatively accurate while saving cognitive effort compared to calculating values. Three studies applied to partitioned prices in the form of a base price and a percentage discount, demonstrate that when faced with this numeric integration task, the strategy consumers undertake is dependent on the characteristics of the numerals with discounts that are round or close to round being associated with greater use of computational estimation. Further, when employing computational estimation, consumers arrive at more accurate, and lower, price estimates in which they place more confidence than when using alternative an integration strategy. As a result, discounts that are near a round value are preferred to those that are not; a result that is dependent upon the use of computational estimation.     

对外直接投资与贸易的关系:互补或替代

本文运用2000-2004年我国进出口贸易和对外直接投资的数据资料,使用引力模型分析了我国对外直接投资和对外贸易之间的关系。结果表明:在我国,对外直接投资与出口贸易之间存在显著的互补性,即对外直接投资与出口相互促进。本文的研究结论对我国实施"走出去"战略具有重要的政策含义。     

一种新的正弦信号频率和初相估计方法

提出了一种新的正弦信号频率和初相估计方法——频谱遍历法。该方法通过改变理想 正弦信号频谱峰值实现对采样信号频谱峰值的遍历。分析了噪声对信号频谱幅度的影响,并 以此给出了谱线遍历范围的选取准则。先估计频率,采用移频操作达到了良好的频域稳定性 ;再估计相位,避免了相位测量模糊的问题。在信噪比为6 dB、采样点数为1 024 的情况下,频率估计均方根误差约为DFT频率分辨率的0.8%,初相估计均方根误差约为1.5 °。Monte Carlo仿真表明,在达到一定信噪比或采样长度时,该方法的频率估计精度可突 破CR下限,初相估计精度基本达到CR下限。     

中国周期性赤字和结构性赤字的估算

本文在分析比较了消除趋势法和潜在产出法的基础上,估算出我国改革开放以来的周期性赤字和结构性赤字,并依据估算结果对改革开放以来我国财政政策自动稳定功能和财政态势作简要分析.分析表明:(1)我国财政政策的自动稳定功能较弱,现实财政赤字变化主要取决于结构性赤字变化;(2)改革开放以来,我国财政态势经历了三个阶段,即1979-1981年的强紧缩阶段、1982-1997年的弱扩张阶段和1998年以来的强扩张阶段,但最近三年的积极财政政策的扩张力度已有所减弱.     

欧盟反倾销对中国出口的影响——基于动态面板数据的2SLS分析

本文利用1988年至2008年期间欧盟对华反倾销案件的年度数据,构造以欧盟主要成员为横截面单元的动态面板数据模型,应用二阶段广义最小二国乘法分析了欧盟对华反倾销对中国对欧盟总出口的影响。实证结果表明,反倾销调查促使了中国对欧盟出口在第二年增加,反倾销措施导致中国对欧盟出口在第二年下降,而总体来说,反倾销并没影响到中国对欧盟的总出口。