Do good governance provisions shelter investors from contagion?Evidence from the Russian crisis1

This paper studies how the Russian crisis of 1998 affected listed firms in transition economies. The data cover 394 companies that were listed before the Russian crisis, and include financial, industry, ownership and stock market information. Results show that in the short term (within one month of the crisis) good governance did not shelter investors from contagion. On the contrary, stock returns during the crisis period were lower for the largest and most liquid stocks and markets in the region irrespective of their direct exposure to Russia. The paper also documents that in the longer term (one year after the crisis) recovery was faster in firms without direct trade exposure to Russia, as well as in firms with better firm‐level governance as proxied by the presence of a foreign blockholder. The paper presents evidence that both firm‐ and country‐level characteristics are important in overcoming the effects of a crisis. Firm‐specific characteristics, however, play a bigger role for companies operating in countries with weaker corporate governance.     

Relative wages and trade-induced changes in technology

We develop a model where trade liberalization leads to skill-biased technological change, which in turn raises the relative return to skilled labor. When firms get access to a larger market, the relative profitability of different technologies changes in favor of the more skill-intensive technology. As the composition of firms changes to one with predominantly skill-intensive firms, the relative demand for skilled labor increases. This way, we establish a link between trade, technology and relative returns to skilled and unskilled labor.     

The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets

This study investigates the comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets. The sample covers major institutional changes, such as market liberalization and financial crises, so as to examine how the short-term and long-term relations change after such events. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is adopted, which allows us to deal with structural breaks easily, and to handle data that have integrals of different orders. Interest rates and foreign reserves are also included in the analysis to reduce potential omitted variable bias. My empirical results suggest that the comovement between exchange rates and stock prices becomes stronger during crisis periods, consistent with contagion or spillover between asset prices, when compared with tranquil periods. Furthermore, most of the spillovers during crisis periods can be attributed to the channel running from stock price shocks to the exchange rate, suggesting that governments should stimulate economic growth and stock markets to attract capital inflow, thereby preventing a currency crisis. However, the industry causality analysis shows the comovement is not stronger for export-oriented industries for all periods, such as industrials and technology industries, thus implying that comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets is generally driven by capital account balance rather than that of trade.     

Survivorship and the Economic Grim Reaper

The 10-year survival rate for firms trading on the New Yorkand American stock exchanges between 1963 and 1995 is only 61%.This article explores the process by which firms come to bedelisted. We calculate the returns of firms from 10 years beforedelisting to their delisting date and show that, on average,the economic grim reaper kills poorly performing firms. We documenttakeover and distress delisting rates through time, analyzepredelisting equity market returns for both groups, and explorehow firm characteristics and regulations governing corporatetakeovers and bankruptcy affect the friction with which theseprocesses operate. We believe this is the first analysis todocument long-term equity market and operating performance ofdelisting firms. The study builds on research from both financeand industrial organization and is consistent with a Schumpeterianview of economic development.     

Financial crises,debt overhang,and firm growth in transition economies

ABSTRACT

We examine the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the European debt crisis of 2011 on the relationship between capital structure, investments, and performance for Eastern European companies. While the existing literature documents how firms’ investments are sensitive to the availability of internal funds and to debt holdings, we further investigate whether this investment sensitivity also translates in different levels of performance, and document that capital structure indeed has both a direct and an indirect effect, mediated by the capital expenditure channel. We show that firms with higher financial flexibility experience higher investments and returns on capital. Over-levered firms instead suffer from a debt overhang condition, forcing them to curb investments, and consequently experiencing lower performance. Overall, we provide evidence on the importance of capital structure and financial flexibility on investments and performance, showing the real consequences of the debt overhang condition on firm value creation. Firms should therefore aim at maintaining adequate financial flexibility in order to be able to pursue future profitable investment opportunities, and avoid the under-investment problem arising from a debt overhang situation.     

The relation between asset growth and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study examines the effect of firm investment on stock returns by using data on the Chinese stock market. We find that stocks with higher investment experience lower future returns and there is an obvious investment effect in the Chinese stock market. The investment effect is stronger for firms that have higher cash flows, lower debt or for state-owned firms. We further explore the relation between investment and returns over the 3 years around portfolio formation. The results show that the high investment firms earn higher returns than low investment firms before portfolio formation; however the high investment firms earn lower returns than low investment firms after portfolio formation, such evidence is supportive of investor's overreaction explanation. Additionally, the stock returns don't necessarily decrease after investment, and the stock returns don't significantly positively correlate with firm profitability or book-to-market, so the result don't support risk-based explanation. Overall, both our portfolio sort and two-stage cross-sectional regression analysis show that behavioral finance theories are better than risk-based theories in explaining the investment anomaly. Evidence from the Chinese stock market provides a useful perspective to understand the debate on the investment anomaly.     

Do stock markets penalize environment-unfriendly behaviour? Evidence from India

A growing body of research points to the fact that capital markets react to environmental news and thus create incentives for pollution control in both developed and emerging market economies. In this paper, we conduct an event study to examine the impact of environmental rating of large pulp and paper, auto, and chlor alkali firms on their stock prices. We find that the market generally penalizes environmentally unfriendly behaviour in that announcement of weak environmental performance by firms leads to negative abnormal returns of up to 30%. A positive correlation is found between abnormal returns to a firm's stock and the level of its environmental performance. These findings should be viewed as further evidence of the important role that capital markets could play in environmental management, particularly in developing countries where environmental monitoring and enforcement are weak.     

Location of vertically linked industries: agglomeration versus comparative advantage

This paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on the location of manufacturing firms that are vertically linked and differ in factor intensities. I extend the new economic geography literature, by embedding a model with vertical linkages within a Heckscher-Ohlin framework. I show that lower trade costs can lead to an agglomeration of all upstream and downstream firms in one country, even when they differ in factor intensities. These industrial location patterns do not always lead to factor price convergence; and may result in an increase in returns to both factors in the country where the agglomeration locates.     

The market response to corporate scandals involving CEOs

This article examines corporate scandals of both a financial and nonfinancial nature between 1993 and 2011 which is expressly linked to a firm’s CEO. Findings suggest that in the short run, investors react adversely to such events and that recalcitrant CEOs end up costing their shareholders dearly. Such scandals are more likely to occur among large firms, firms with insiders on the board and where the value of options granted to a firm’s managers is substantial. However, firms with more cash flows are less likely to be mired in such scandals, and their stock returns are less likely to be affected. There is an increase in stock price volatility of affected firms in the days following the announcement of the scandal. A point of respite for investors is the damage being confined to the short run. The stock price performance of the firms affected by the scandals matches the performance of control firms in the long run post-announcement. However, the operating performance of the sample firms is better than their matched counterparts in the years after the scandal. We contribute to the extant literature by considering corporate scandal events that are the doings of a firm’s CEO and not necessarily financially motivated.     

Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective

Expenditure reductions played a key role in many small open economies during fiscal consolidation, with large declines in public investment. This led to a reduction in public capital stock and affected the competitiveness of these economies. After the sovereign debt crisis, the governments that consider increasing investment to replenish the public capital stock have limited fiscal space and have to avoid external imbalances. We show that using budget-neutral investment spending can generate long-term benefits of higher public capital stock while at the same time limiting negative consequences for the public finances and the trade balance. The best way of financing government investment, which preserves fiscal and trade balances, and increases welfare, is by reducing other government spending. The second-best is financing investment with value-added tax. Financing with debt worsens fiscal and trade balances, while using distortionary labour taxes reduces labour supply, increases wage costs and worsens the trade deficit in the short run.     

Long-run abnormal performance following convertible preference share and convertible bond issues: New evidence from the United Kingdom

We study the long-run abnormal performance of a sample of U.K. firms following convertible preference share and convertible bond issues over the period 1982–1996. We are the first to study, as far as we are aware, the long-run stock price performance of firms following convertible preference share issues. Furthermore, our data set has been extracted from original sources and thus mitigates to some extent concerns about data-snooping biases. We measure long-run abnormal performances both prior to and following the issuance of convertible bonds and convertible preference shares and by the method of the issue used. Using a range of metrics to assess the robustness of long-run abnormal performance, we find evidence of pre-offer overperformance and post-offer underperformance using buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs). However, post-offer underperformance is statistically significant in the case of convertible preference share issuers. Implementing a calendar-time approach, we again find underperformance for convertible preference share issuers. We do not find any evidence of long-run stock price underperformance for firms following the issuance of convertible bonds.     

The Behaviour of Banking Stocks During the Financial Crisis and Recessions. Evidence from Changes‐in‐Changes Panel Data Estimations

This paper examines the impact of the financial crisis and economic recessions on bank shares compared to the overall stock market index for 18 OECD countries from 1993 to 2015. The empirical methodology utilizes the changes‐in‐changes approach. We compare and contrast the returns of the banking stock price index (treatment group) in each country with their general stock price index (control group), which experiences smaller changes. Our results suggest that bank returns on average perform significantly worse than that of the general stock price index during recessions. In addition, we also find significantly greater volatility in bank share returns.     

Technology-acquiring cross-border M&As by emerging market firms: role of bilateral trade openness

This paper investigates the role of bilateral trade openness in technology-acquiring cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by emerging market firms (EMFs). The cross-border M&A, patents, and financial data from January 2000 to December 2013 have been utilised for empirical analyses. By analysing cumulative abnormal returns of the acquirer EMFs from Brazil, Russia, China, India, and Mexico, the value-creating nature of technology-acquiring cross-border M&As has been confirmed. In addition, the number of the patents owned by the target firms showed a positive and significant effect on the stock performance of cross-border acquirers. Finally, the bilateral trade openness significantly and positively moderated the relation between the innovation capability of the target firms and EMFs’ stock performance.     

Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation

The aim of this article is to investigate the responses of European sector stock markets to oil price changes. We use linear and asymmetric models and study the association of oil and stock prices. Our findings suggest that the strength of this association varies greatly across sectors. Moreover, for some sectors we find strong evidence of asymmetry in the reaction of stock returns to changes in the price of oil.     

Spillover Effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis in Latin America Stock Markets

This paper examines the transmission of the 2008 US financial crisis to four Latin American stock markets using daily stock returns from 2006 to 2010, analyzing before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The empirical evidence presents a financial contagion by showing persistently higher and more volatile pair-wise conditional correlations during the crisis period. This indicates there are structural changes in mean and volatility of the correlation coefficients due to the 2008 financial crisis in Latin American markets. The results here could be useful in international portfolio diversification decision-making in Latin American region. In addition, the predicting the volatility in different markets could be a useful input for reducing financial instability in crisis episodes to policy makers.     

Riding out of a financial crisis: The joint effect of trust and corporate ownership

We study how generalized trust shapes the ability of firms with different ownership forms to obtain trade financing and perform during a financial crisis. Exploiting geographic variations in trust across Italian regions and the occurrence of the 2008-09 financial crisis in a difference-in-differences setting, we show that generalized trust makes family firms less able to obtain trade financing during the crisis. This finding maps into performance results: trust alleviates the negative effect of a crisis for non-family firms, while it aggravates the negative effect for family firms. This latter result depends crucially on a firm's corporate governance: trust does not harm family firms whose board is open to non-family directors. Collectively, our findings illustrate how culture interacts with corporate attributes in shaping a firm's prospects.     

Steel safeguards and the welfare of U.S. steel firms and downstream consumers of steel: a shareholder wealth perspective

Abstract.  This paper analyses the steel safeguards applied during 2001–3. Results reveal that for shareholders of U.S. steel companies safeguards generated positive 'abnormal' returns of approximately 6%. The cancellation of the safeguards resulted in wealth gains of about 5%. Steel shareholders experienced negative abnormal returns of −5% in response to the WTO ruling that the U.S. had violated WTO law. Our results are consistent with the neoclassical view that producers gain at the expense of consumers. Also, findings indicate that downstream-consuming firms that diversify production in NAFTA countries avert some trade policy risk associated with higher steel costs caused by safeguard protection.     

International trade,foreign direct investments,and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper measures the contribution of firms in the financial and non-financial sectors to systemic risk. We quantify systemic risk as possible risk spillovers from individual firms to the economy by taking into account time-varying linkages between the firm and the economy. Based on a novel dataset that combines data on international trade and foreign direct investments with daily stock data for 67 Dutch listed companies from 2006–2015, our results indicate that high systemic risk contributions are not only present in the financial sector, but also occur in other sectors of the economy. We find that firms within the financial sector are more capable than non-financial firms of reverting to their pre-financial crisis level of systemic risk contribution. Having examined the potential role globalization fulfills in determining systemic risk, we find two main opposing effects. First, firms in internationally trade-intensive sectors contribute less to systemic risk than firms in sectors with low trade intensity. Second, systemic risk rises when firms are engaged in foreign direct investment activity, suggesting that international networks and global supply chains contribute to systemic risk propagation. Our empirical results imply that macro-prudential policy aimed at monitoring systemic risk should be extended to non-financial sectors and should take into consideration globalization measures, such as foreign direct investments and global supply chains.     

Oil prices and UK industry-level stock returns

In this article, we study whether the behaviour of oil prices can be used as a reliable predictor for the disaggregated industry-level stock market indices. We find strong evidence for the relevance of changes in oil price as a predictor for the returns of UK industry portfolios, while this relevance is heterogeneous across industries. In an out-of-sample framework, we find that both the contemporaneous and lagged oil price changes do predict UK industry stock market returns. The predictive power is more transient for the latter case, and mostly appearing after allowing for time variation in the relative performance. In addition, we find some evidence of asymmetry in the oil–stock price relationships.     

Chinese overseas M&A performance and the Go Global policy1

It is well known that government plays an important role in the business activities of Chinese firms. Less certain is the effect this influence has on the wealth of those firms’ shareholders. We contribute to the literature by analysing stock market reactions to announcements by Chinese firms of overseas mergers and acquisitions (OMAs). OMAs are of particular interest because there can exist a conflict between the interests of the public sector in acquiring overseas assets, and the interests of the private sector in maximizing shareholder wealth. Our main dataset consists of 213 observations of 157 OMA events that occurred between 1994 and 2009, using share market returns from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and US markets. The aggregation of share price data across multiple markets, and the listing of firms in multiple exchanges, raise econometric issues for the standard event‐study methodology. To address these, we use a new, feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedure developed by Gu and Reed (2012) . On the basis of an analysis using both aggregated and disaggregated samples, and of daily and cumulative abnormal returns, we find consistent evidence that (i) Chinese OMAs have not lowered the wealth of shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms, and (ii) shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms have not fared worse under under China's ‘Go Global’ policy of encouraging outward investment by Chinese firms.