The bases of Soviet power in the Third World

This paper examines the process by which the Soviet Union has attempted to establish, maintain and extend its influence in the various regions of the Third World. The author traces the evolution of these relations through the stage of establishing diplomatic relations during the decolonization period and that of the USSR's attempts to harmonize its approach to trade relations with its own strategy of economic development. However, the USSR's natural economic ties with the South were very weak and it therefore chose to favour military assistance over economic aid – an option which it felt would create stronger links of dependency between the recipient countries of the South and the USSR, and thus would reinforce the bases of Soviet power around the world.     

山东省出口商品结构与贸易发展方式的转变分析

通过数据分析,本文研究了1996～2008年山东省出口商品结构的演进及贸易发展方式的转变,并得出如下结论:在此期间,山东省整体出口贸易高速增长,出口商品结构不断优化,贸易发展方式获得转型;工业制成品的出口增速高于初级产品,机电产品的出口增速高于高新技术产品,机械及运输设备出口增速高于轻纺及其他一般制成品;贸易发展方式上则表现为一般贸易的出口高于加工贸易,呈现一般贸易、加工贸易和其他贸易竞相发展的良好格局。     

The new goods margin in Japanese–Chinese trade

This paper uses the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) to measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Japan and China after China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. The new goods account for 15.9% of Japanese exports to China and 22% of Chinese exports to Japan after trade liberalization. For the case of Chinese exports to Japan, a time series measure shows the growth in new goods coincides with the timing of the trade liberalization.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Skills and changing comparative advantage: The case of Japan

Is the skill gap of net exports widening? This question is nontrivial for many industrial countries because, with the rapid growth of emerging countries, human capital is considered one of the most important sources of comparative advantage. Theoretically, however, the answer is not necessarily obvious because of changing comparative advantage. This paper attempts to answer this question by extending the analysis of Wolff (2003) and by focusing on one of the largest OECD countries, Japan, for the period 1980–2005. The results indicate that the answer to the above question may well be “no.” Although Japan is still a net exporter of skill-intensive goods, the skill gap of net exports has been narrowing since the mid-1990s, mainly as a result of the changes in the composition of trade. This implies that some OECD countries, including Japan, may have been losing their comparative advantage in skill-intensive goods in recent years.     

Egypt's economic relations with the socialist countries

The economic relations between Egypt and the socialist countries (1948-73) are discussed and appraised in the context of the political, economic and historical factors which brought them about and maintained them. It is argued that, because of special circumstances, Egypt had little choice but to develop close economic ties with the Soviet bloc. Bilateral trade has known disadvantages; the USSR, however, links trade with generous credit-an attractive feature for LDCs suffering from chronic balance-of-payments deficits. Other advantages and costs of bilateral trade are also discussed. The paper includes comments on Soviet development assistance. A main theme is that Egypt, considering the restrictions imposed on her options by the polarization of the Arab-Israeli conflict, fared well in the relationship. Export and import prices in bilateral agreements seem to have corresponded to world prices, often with a premium in Egypt's favour. Egypt also benefited from a large inflow of resources and from a significant contribution to domestic capital formation.     

Trade in manufactured goods: patterns of change

This paper looks at the changing pattern of trade in manufactured goods between the developed industrial countries and the developing countries. It first reviews recent changes in this trade and the policies applied. Then it analyses the comparative advantages of the industrial and the developing countries and indicates the commodity composition of this trade. The implications of the results are drawn with reference to the benefits of trade in manufactured goods for the participants.     

Is Japan's trade (still) different?

Does Japanese trade in manufactured goods differ from the rest-of-the world average and from the US? We use a simple industry-level gravity model and 1981–1998 data to answer this question. We construct a measure of normalized imports by dividing bilateral industry-level imports by the importer's aggregate absorption and the exporter's industry output. We find that Japan imports less than other countries, but also exports less than other countries. Relative to the US, Japanese export performance is half as strong today as it was in the mid-1980s. Bilaterally, Japan is more open to imports from the US than the US is to imports from Japan. This means that the US runs a trade surplus with Japan in normalized imports of manufactured goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 507–519.     

中国商品贸易结构升级了吗——基于贸易品类别、技术附加值和质量水平的分析

文章从贸易品类别、技术附加值和质量水平三个角度对中国二十多年来商品贸易结构升级状况进行分析。根据贸易品类别,可以测算出高技术制成品在中国商品出口贸易中的占比不断提高;根据贸易品技术附加值,可以测算出中国出口贸易整体技术水平升级显著;利用质量水平指标,可以测算出中国大部分贸易品已从低质量层级向中高质量层级升级。通过分析中国与五个主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易结构可以看出,虽然中国出口产品的技术水平和质量水平都在升级,但是与进口产品相比总体上处于劣势。     

日本与东盟贸易关系的发展及其问题

近40年来,日本与东盟一直互为重要的贸易伙伴。从上世纪80年代中期至今,双边贸易额剧增,进出口商品结构也发生了显著变化。日本在出口技术密集的高附加值产品的同时,从东盟进口的初级产品比重减少,制成品进口比重迅速增加。但这只是资本全球化、区域经济一体化形势下,部门内非熟练劳动与技术交换的垂直分工形式,并不能说是水平分工。东盟仍是日本重要的资源供应地、生产基地和工业品市场。     

日本对外贸易条件变动相关分析

贸易价格条件是反映国际贸易利益分配的重要指标之一,本文结合日本工业化各个阶段的经济发展状况、产业结构和产业政策分析了1960年以来日本对外贸易价格条件的变动情况。日本对外贸易价格条件大致经历了3个阶段:第一、二个阶段都呈现总体上升,先抑后扬的趋势,而第三个阶段呈现震动下降的趋势。一国对外贸易价格条件与本国所处的经济发展阶段和经济发展环境密切相关,贸易价格条件反映了一国进行国际贸易时所处地位和贸易商品的比较优势。为了维持相对较优的贸易价格条件,需要优化产业结构,促进主导产业升级;加大科技研发,提高商品附加值;开发新型能源,保障国内产业安全和发挥资本作用、提高国际市场话语权等。     

金融发展对江苏省工业制成品比较优势和国际贸易结构的影响

在相关研究的基础上,探讨了金融发展与工业制成品比较优势与贸易结构的内在关系。采用VAR模型与Johanson协整检验,脉冲响应、方差分解,以江苏省数据为例,实证检验了江苏省金融发展的三种不同指标与工业制成品比较优势及江苏省贸易结构的关系,检验结果表明金融发展与工业制成品比较优势存在协整关系;在短期内,金融发展对贸易结构的优化贡献度较小,金融中介的投资储蓄转化率对工业制成品比较优势的影响最大,并在此基础上,根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议。     

National accounts and international comparisons for the former Soviet Union

Abstract

Despite a long-standing experience in national accounting in the former USSR, it is well established that official Soviet estimates of economic growth were substantially overstated. Furthermore. a peculiar fact showing the internal inconsistency in the official national accounts ofthe Soviet Union is that independent estimates of relative levels of USSR and US national income and GNP comparisons suggested much lower growth rates. However, even the former comparative level estimates are now by many regarded as overstated. This paper briefly reviews the history of the official national accounts in both the former Soviet Union and new Russia. then turns to a review of the revisionist estimates ofgrowth; and finally offers a comparative discussion ofthe USSR/USA levels.     

International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

Opinion over the global implications of China's rise is divided between critics and proponents. Critics see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan. Proponents emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing that stem from China's supply of light manufactures, its demand for Western capital and luxury goods and its high saving. The criticism implies Keynesian assumptions while proponents take a neoclassical perspective. In this paper, both are embodied in a global macro-model that emphasises bilateral linkages via trade and investment, with monetary spill-overs represented by globally integrated bond markets. Net gains are suggested for the US and Europe from China's successful export-oriented growth, though there are partially offsetting Keynesian effects. China's recent slower, more consumption focussed, growth appears also to be beneficial in those regions and in Japan notwithstanding terms of trade losses.     

Evolutionary Characteristics of China＇s Intermediate Manufactures

China's economic development is characterized by progressive integration with international production chains as an assembly producer. Japan and South Korea are the major partners providing intermediate products to China. The present paper analyzes the Chinese intermediate sector's present condition and evolutionary characteristics revealed in bilateral trade with Japan and South Korea. The analysis uses the framework of new trade theory represented by “intra‐industry trade”. Trade statistics from 1997 to 2004 are analyzed using the database published by the OECD. Results show that China's inter‐industrial evolution is characterized by its expanding positioning in the manner of the flying geese development paradigm of Asian countries. Furthermore, intra‐industrial evolution is characterized by a concentration on price competitiveness. The framework and results of the industrial analysis presented in this paper assist in the understanding of China's manufacturing evolution and of the policy‐making decisions taken in the process.     

我国贸易多样性的影响因素和生产率增长——基于内延边际与外延边际的考察

依据Feenstra等人的检验方法,本文测算了中国省份层面的初级品和制成品贸易多样性,结果发现,制成品进口多样性的地区区域出现扩散形态,而出口多样性走向区域趋同.在计算样本期我国省份TFP指数基础上,研究进一步考察了贸易多样性与生产率增长的双向关联,结果发现,除了科研投入,贸易多样性成为我国生产率提高的重要因素;就贸易...     

我国发展服务贸易的优势及政策研究——以环渤海地区的天津为例

近年来，全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易。首先，文章从宏观出发，分析了我国服务贸易发展中存在的问题；然后，从国家产业竞争力、天津在环渤海地区的地位、天津服务产业发展三个角度分析了发展天津服务贸易的必要性，并着眼于天津面临的历史机遇、政策支持，以及自身具备的良好经济基础、区位优势和产业优势五个方面指出发展服务贸易的优势。最后，提出建设性对策建议。     

美日技术创新的产业分布及其对贸易竞争优势演变的结构效应

本文借用固定市场份额法,通过实证得出:美日两国从上世纪80年代末开始,技术创新产业选择方向出现了明显的不同,从而产业结构(贸易结构)的转换出现了较大差异,美国结构成功转型,贸易竞争优势得到了明显的提高;而日本产业结构和贸易结构转型一直在摸索阶段,结构升级的缓慢是日本贸易竞争优势有所下降的内在原因。     

日本对外直接投资的贸易效应及其启示

对外直接投资的贸易效应是学界研究的一个重要课题,日本对外直接投资与贸易的密切关系也备受关注。本文将日本的主要贸易伙伴分为四组,实证分析日本对外直接投资的贸易效应发现:日本的对外直接投资是贸易互补型的,其对日本的进出口贸易具有明显的长期促进作用;日本的对外直接投资是引起其贸易顺差的一个重要因素,日本对美国等对日贸易逆差国的直接投资扩大了其与这组国家的贸易顺差;日本对NIEs、中国等的直接投资并不是导致日本产业空心化的主要原因。实证结论在利用对外直接投资带动出口贸易、减少贸易摩擦以及在对外转移产业时避免国内产业空心化等方面为我国的实践提供了借鉴。     

EXPLORING THE SPECTRUM OF EXPORT DESTINATION: THE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF KOREAN EXPORTS,ITS DETERMINANTS,AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Recent research in international trade has explored the stylized facts and causes and effects of export diversification. A simple model in this paper drawing on the work of Melitz suggests that there is an order in which a country spreads its goods to foreign countries. We estimate the order by using a methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported to several countries in our sample (unbalanced panel). We find that Korea exports its new goods first to the United States, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and most recently to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Finally we find that the countries that Korea has exported to first are those with large GDP, low tariff rates, geographic proximity, language familiarity, in-country Korean export promotion offices, and high-quality institutions.