How Does Fiscal Consolidation Impact on Income Inequality?

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on income inequality. Using a panel of 18 industrialized countries from 1978 to 2009, we find that income inequality significantly rises during periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition, while fiscal policy that is driven by spending cuts seems to be detrimental for income distribution, tax hikes seem to have an equalizing effect. We also show that the size of the fiscal consolidation program (in percentage of GDP) has an impact on income inequality. In particular, when consolidation plans represent a small share of GDP, the income gap widens, suggesting that the burden associated with the effort affects disproportionately households at the bottom of the income distribution. Considering the linkages between banking crises and fiscal consolidation, we find that the effect on the income gap is amplified when fiscal adjustments take place after the resolution of such financial turmoil. Similarly, fiscal consolidation programs combined with inflation are likely to increase inequality and the effects of fiscal adjustments on inequality are amplified during periods of relatively low growth. Our results also provide support for a non‐linear relationship between inequality and income and corroborate the idea that trade can promote a more equal distribution of income.     

Tax competition and tax structure in open federal economies: Evidence from OECD countries with implications for the European Union

Tax competition arguments suggest that governments that operate in an open economy (such as local governments) should not and will not rely on non-benefit taxes, such as the income tax. Yet we observe reliance on income taxes by local governments in many countries, and such reliance changes over time. Evidence from a panel data set of 13 OECD countries over the period 1975-1984 suggests that competition between levels of government (resulting in a vertical fiscal externality) and between governments at the same level (resulting in a horizontal fiscal externality) provide some economic rationale for these changes. Moreover, the evidence indicates that the vertical and horizontal fiscal externalities interact. These results have some interesting implications for fiscal policy in the European Union, particularly as the EU continues to evolve. One implication for the EU is that enlargement that increases tax base disparities within the EU (and is not accompanied by an EU-level income tax) will tend to lower national income tax rates, although this must be qualified because it also depends on the mobility of the population. A second implication is that fiscal expansion of the EU to include an EU-level income tax may tend to lower the reliance of national governments on income taxes through the vertical externality, but may also tend to equalize tax bases across countries, and so increase reliance on national income taxes through the horizontal externality.     

Decentralisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper provides empirical evidence for the association between fiscal decentralisation and income distribution for a panel of 11 economies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during 1992–2016. We focus on three research topics: the effect of decentralisation on income inequality; the effects of the structure of subnational government finance on income inequality; and the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis. The main findings from the empirical exercise are as follows: first, we provide firm evidence on the presumed favourable effects of fiscal decentralisation on income distribution in the CEE countries; second, our empirical model suggests that the effects of fiscal decentralisation on income inequality are dependent on the source of finance of subnational governments, i.e. intergovernmental transfers may have a role in income equalisation; third, we cannot confirm the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in CEE countries.     

Fiscal federalism in rentier regions: Evidence from Russia

When does sub-national fiscal autonomy prompt regional growth and recovery and, under what conditions, does it have adverse effects? We argue that unearned income streams, particularly in the form of revenues from natural resource production or from budgetary transfers from the central government, transform regions dependent on these income sources into rentier regions. Governments in these regions can use local control over revenues and expenditures to shelter certain firms, i.e., natural resource producers or loss-making enterprises, from market forces. Using fiscal data from 80 Russian regions from 1996 to 1999, we test this hypothesis in both cross-sectional and panel specifications. Our results indicate that tax retention, which is a proxy for fiscal autonomy, has had a positive effect on regional reform and investment since the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, we also find that this effect decreases as rentable income streams to regions increase. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 814–834.     

The role of fiscal policy in the St. Louis model: Nonparametric estimates for a small open economy

This paper reevaluates the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policies and bidirectional causality between income and each of the policy instruments used in the St. Louis model for aggregate demand using nonparametric (or infinite parametric) spectral methods. We proceed by estimating the strength of the correlations (or partial coherences) between income and each of the policy instruments over various frequencies. Then we obtain the corresponding band regression and Hannan's efficient estimates of both the lead and lag coefficients in the St. Louis model. The analysis is carried out with seasonally adjusted quarterly data and is divided into the flexible, fixed, and managed flexible exchange rate regimes. We find that while estimates from parametric regressions yield the standard conclusions for the St. Louis model, results from the nonparametric analysis are quite different. Specifically, the results of our analysis reveal that (i) both monetary and fiscal instruments are strongly correlated with income over cycles of 10 quarters or longer for the most recent period of the managed flexible exchange rate regime, and (ii) bidirectional causality exists between income and the fiscal policy instrument. These results suggest that both monetary and fiscal policy have a long-lasting effect on aggregate demand and that bidirectional causality exists between income and policy instruments. An explanation for the existence of bidirectional causality might be that the Canadian government generally pursued a purposeful discretionary fiscal policy during the post-World War II period. Furthermore, it appears that discretionary policy action may have been anticipated by rational, farsighted, and forward-looking economic agents. Finally, our results for the flexible exchange rate and fixed rate regimes are in agreement with the Mundell-Fleming view of the role of monetary fiscal policy in an open economy.     

How County-Level Agricultural Loans and Fiscal Expenditure Impact Rural Residents’ Income in China——An Empirical Study of the Hierarchical Effect by Quantile Regression

Using cross-sectional data from 853 counties in 11 western China provinces, we employ quantile regression (QR) and instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to investigate the hierarchical effect of fiscal expenditure and agricultural loan on rural residents’ income. We find: (1) the relationship between agricultural loan and income is consistent with the inverted U-shape (Kuznets curve); (2) the coefficient of quantile regression for rural residents’ loan gradually decreases; particularly, the impact on the high-income group is insignificant (at 0.90 quantile); (3) for 0.10 and 0.50 quantile, the increase of fiscal expenditure would hinder rather than promote income growth; (4) the restraining effect becomes more pronounced for the lower groups; in contrast, there is a significant positive relationship between income and fiscal expenditure for 0.90 quantile’s income group. Implications for government policy formulation are propounded accordingly.     

Economic Risk and Political Risk in Fiscal Unions

A fiscal programme that redistributes income from rich to poor individuals indirectly redistributes tax revenues from regions hit by a favourable shock to regions hit by an unfavourable one. Centralised fiscal redistribution has therefore been advocated as a way to insure individuals against region-specific shocks. In this paper, we argue that a centralised fiscal policy, while reducing the uncertainty on the tax base, may create additional uncertainty on the tax rate. Using a simple model we show that the higher uncertainty on the policy instrument might more than offset the lower uncertainty on the tax base.     

居民收入增长对公共支出的需求变动分析——基于中国1978～2006年数据的实证研究

由于不同收入群体的公共产品偏好不同,因此,随着居民收入的增长,公众对于公共产品的需求会有所改变,由此引致的财政支出规模变化应当是＂民生财政＂建立过程中需要重点考虑的因素。本文试图研究中国改革开放以来居民收入增长对财政支出规模的影响,主要从两个层面展开：首先,在理论层面,将财政支出分为不同性质的三类,并以此为基础分析居民收入与财政支出规模二者之间的逻辑关系;接着,对1978～2008年间中国的经验数据进行了实证研究,用协整检验和ARIMA模型等计量工具,实证分析了居民收入增长对中国公共支出结构变动的影响。研究结果表明：长期看来,随着居民收入增长,基础设施需求以及国防安全的需求趋于稳定;在短期中,居民收入的增长最能引起社会文教支出的扩张,其次为国防支出和行政管理支出,对经济建设支出的影响最弱。     

财政支出结构与城乡收入差距——基于东、中、西部地区省级面板数据的经验分析

本文基于中国三大地区的省级面板数据,构建计量模型,实证考察财政支出结构对城乡收入差距的影响。实证结果表明,政府财政支出结构对城乡收入差距有显著影响,不同财政支出项目的影响方向不同,且财政支出结构对城乡收入差距的影响在中国三大地区存在差异性。因此,研究财政支出结构对城乡收入差距的影响,不能仅就全国范围考察,还需分区域进行。本文最后根据实证结果提出了一些缩小城乡收入差距的政策建议。     

FISCAL STRUCTURAL REFORM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: PUBLIC SPENDING AND PRIVATE EFFORT*

This paper explores governments' and private agents' incentives to implement or postpone fiscal structural reform attempts. Both fiscal consolidation and fiscal reorganization often create spillover effects and thereby induce free‐riding problems. It is thus important to cope with the free‐riding behaviour of interest groups. It is often argued that in order to attain successful outcomes, a good macroeconomic situation is needed, since we expect positive income effects. In this paper, we first explain the dynamic aspects of insufficient fiscal consolidation due to free‐riding problems in the framework of private provision of public goods. Then, using a static model between central and local governments, we examine the sign of income effects for reform attempts to pursue fiscal reorganization. It is shown that good economic circumstances do not necessarily enhance reform of reorganizing fiscal expenditures, although it could enhance fiscal reconstruction.     

转型社会中财政对收入分配的影响——基于我国不同发展阶段的理论实证

财政对收入分配的影响不仅限于再分配更在于初次分配环节。文章借助数理模型分析了我国不同阶段财政对收入分配的作用机制,研究表明:(1)财政制度安排影响要素分配和分配基本格局。初次分配格局确定后,再分配调节作用有限。长期中,财政将通过居民要素结构影响收入分配;(2)我国不同阶段的分配状况是财政体制和发展战略目标的必然结果;(3)构建和谐社会条件下,财政支出结构将有利于人力资本积累、提高收入水平、缩小收入差距。     

Fiscal policy under a minimum‐time objective

In an endogenous growth model, we characterize the fiscal policy driven by a minimum‐time objective of economic development. We find that in equilibrium government should levy the highest possible consumption taxes, reduce public expenditures to the lowest possible level, and keep labor income tax rate and capital income tax rate satisfy a substitution relationship at the balanced budget constraint. We also identify the condition under which income tax rate should be set to zero. We further find that the equilibrium fiscal policy is equivalent to the growth‐maximizing fiscal policy, whereas it generally deviates from the welfare‐maximizing fiscal policy. We hence identify a circumstance where setting the policy goal of reaching an economic‐performance target as soon as possible cannot be justified in the sense of maximizing the welfare of households.     

Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in a small open economy model

We examine dynamic revenue effects of a permanent tax cut on labor and capital income using a small open two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We use a dynamic scoring technique to calculate long-run as well as transitional effects on fiscal revenue when a tax cut is financed by either a lump-sum tax or consumption tax. We show that the revenue loss from an income tax cut becomes substantially smaller when agents can use international financial markets compared to the case of the closed economy. Responses of tradable and nontradable sectors to the capital income tax cut display a stark contrast in both long-run equilibrium and transitional dynamics due to different factor intensities. Capital income tax cut in the tradable sector is the most efficient policy instrument in terms of minimizing fiscal revenue loss. These simulation results suggest that fiscal sustainability issue when implementing a tax cut could be overstated.     

A spatial analysis of provincial corporate income tax responses: evidence from Canada

Abstract.  Using a model of interdependent tax choices, and accounting for equalization entitlements and general transfers, this paper estimates – making use of a spatial econometric framework – corporate income tax-setting functions for all Canadian provincial governments. The results show that there is a statistically significant positive fiscal interaction among a subset of provinces and between all provinces and the federal government. Provincial corporate income taxes are also found to be negatively related to equalization entitlements, general federal transfers, and the federal corporate income tax. A robustness check on the fiscal relationship between Ontario and Quebec verifies the existence of significant bi-directional fiscal interdependencies. The paper also introduces U.S state corporate income taxes as covariates and examines their interaction with Canadian provinces.     

必要增长率与财政政策的理论与实证研究

本文利用我国1992～2003年的年度统计数据,检验了开放经济条件下必要增长率与财政政策关系模型,验证了财政支出水平变化、财政支出结构变化、财政投资结构变化、所得税税率变化及销售税税率的变化对我国国民经济必要增长率的影响,提出了尽量减少必要增长率与民间投资增长率缺口、提高财政支出水平、改善财政支出与投资结构、提高所得税税率与销售税税率、改善所得税结构的政策建议.     

Long‐Run Fiscal Multipliers for Autonomous Prefectures in China

In this paper, we successfully overcome the problems of data availability and investigate the fiscal multipliers for autonomous prefectures in China. We first estimate the long‐run elasticity of gross regional production with respect to fiscal expenditure at the prefecture level using autoregressive distributed lag models. We find that the estimated long‐run elasticity is much less than unity and that the estimated fiscal multipliers for prefectures lie between 0.61 and 4.93, with an average of 1.93. These results indicate that additional fiscal expenditure remains effective in increasing local income and promoting economic growth for most autonomous prefectures.     

政府财政行为对劳动收入占比的影响——基于2004—2011年中国省级面板数据的实证分析

运用广义矩估计法(GMM)并利用2004—2011年中国省级面板数据,考察了中国政府的财政收支行为及其他相关因素对劳动收入占比的影响,并对实证结果进行了稳健性检验。研究结果表明:政府的财政支出行为与劳动收入占比的关系曲线呈显著的倒U型,在样本观察期内两者正相关,引入时间虚拟变量后政策效果更加明显;政府的财政收入行为对劳动收入占比的影响为负;第三产业占比、资本深化、劳动保护等因素对劳动收入占比具有正向影响,人力资本、对外贸易等因素对劳动收入占比具有负向作用。     

Labour participation of Arab women: estimates of the fertility to labour supply link

The standard theoretical framework for analysing households’ intertemporal decisions is the life-cycle/permanent income model. Among its implications, testing the model allows to analyse the response of consumption to fiscal policy. However, the empirical literature with microdata has yielded mixed results. This article examines the sensitivity of the results to the assumption of separability among goods and of homogeneity across households. For that purpose, we test a rational expectations permanent income model with household data drawn from the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey. This survey contains detailed information on total expenditure and the income presents large, exogenous quarterly changes due to an institutional feature. The article shows that assuming separability among commodities biases the test against the model. When separability is not imposed, we show that the rejection of the model depends on heterogeneity across households in terms of their members being unemployed or not. For those households permanently employed, the model cannot be rejected whatever their income status.     

HETEROGENEITY IN A CURRENCY UNION WITH SOCIAL MARKET OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we explore whether heterogeneity among union members could threaten the stability of the European Monetary Union. The types of heterogeneity we consider are (1) asymmetries in the transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, and (2) differences in national preferences for price stability, output growth, and income redistribution. Our results show that the costs of membership can be significant for countries whose transmissions, structure, or preferences deviate from those underlying the common monetary policy. In part, these costs arise because monetary policy imposed by an independent central bank automatically constrains the use of fiscal policy by national governments.