Analyst Forecasting Ability and the Stock Price Reaction to Forecast Revisions

We empirically identifysuperior analysts using their past forecasting track record fora specific firm's earnings and demonstrate that subsequent forecastannouncements by these superior analysts have a greater impacton security prices than do the forecasts of other analysts. Wefind that, in our sample, the price effects of this firm-specificforecasting ability do not spill over to other firms followedby the same analyst. We also demonstrate that an analyst's forecastingability with respect to the earnings of a certain firm is relativelymore important in the period immediately preceding an earningsannouncement by that firm.     

Industry Information Transfers: The Effect of Information Environment

This study extends the information environment theory of Atiase (1985) that suggests an inverse relation between the information available about a firm and the security price reaction to its release of earnings. Non-announcing firms' security price responses are found to be inversely related to their market value but directly related to the number of peer firm articles appearing in the Wall Street Journal and the historical earnings correlations within their industry. The results suggest that information environment affects the security price relevance of a firm's own and its peer firms' earnings.     

The effect of relative performance evaluation on earnings management: a game-theoretic approach

Because investors and creditors often compare the financial statements of similar or competing firms when deciding how to allocate their funds, it is likely that a firm's financial well-being depends on how well it performs relative to its rivals. In this paper, we consider the problem of earnings management as a non-cooperative game among several firms, in which each firm seeks a comparison advantage through its financial statement numbers. Our model indicates that firms may exaggerate their earnings in a world driven by multi-firm-comparisons simply because they expect other firms to do so. Thus, very little may be needed for earnings management to emerge in the Nash equilibrium. Our results hold under the following conditions. First, investors and creditors are not able to unravel the earnings management, thus ensuring that some information asymmetry remains. Second, investors and creditors make inter-firm comparisons when assessing firm value. Third, firms care about their own fundamental value as well as the market's perception about firm value. We also show that the equilibrium amount of earnings management depends on the characteristics of the earnings management technique itself and on the proportion of stockholders who are long-term investors in the firm.     

Bringing the Future Forward: The Effect of Disclosure on the Returns-Earnings Relation

This paper studies how firm disclosure activity affects the relation between current annual stock returns, contemporaneous annual earnings and future earnings. Our results show that firms with relatively more informative disclosures "bring the future forward" so that current returns reflect more future earnings news. We also find that changes in disclosure activity are positively related to changes in the importance of future earnings news for current returns. These results suggest that a firm's disclosure activity reveals credible, relevant information not in current earnings, and that this information is incorporated into the current stock price.     

Why Do Canadian Firms Cross‐list? The Flip Side of the Issue

We investigate the relation between managerial incentives and the decision to cross‐list by comparing Canadian firms cross‐listed on US stock exchanges to industry‐ and size‐matched control firms. After controlling for firm and ownership structure characteristics, we find a positive association between substantial holdings of vested options held by CEOs prior to cross‐listing and the decision to cross‐list. Further, firms managed by CEOs with substantial holdings of vested options exhibit positive announcement returns and negative post‐announcement long‐run returns. CEOs of cross‐listed firms seem to take advantage of the aforementioned market behaviour, because they abnormally exercise vested options and sell the proceeds during the year of listing only when their firms underperform during the subsequent year. In addition, there is a positive relation between substantial holdings of vested options and discretionary accruals during the year of listing, consistent with the view that CEOs manage earnings to keep stock prices at high levels. Overall, these results have significant implications for the cross‐listing literature, suggesting an association between cross‐listing and CEO incentives to maximize CEO private benefits.     

The Determinants and Value Relevance of the Choice of Accounting for Research and Development Expenditures in the United Kingdom

Abstract:  This paper investigates the determinants and value relevance implications of the accounting method choice for development expenditures for firms with research and development (R&D) programs in the United Kingdom (UK). Using a sample of 3,229 UK firm-year observations over the period 1996–2004, I find that the decision to expense versus capitalize development expenditures is influenced by earnings variability, earnings sign, firm size, R&D intensity, leverage, steady-state status of the firm's R&D program, and R&D program success. Additional results indicate that there is little difference in value relevance between reported and adjusted numbers for both the Expensers and the Capitalizers. The evidence in this paper suggests that managers choose the 'correct' method for accounting for R&D in order to best communicate the private information which they hold.     

Bridging the Information Gap: Quarterly Conference Calls as a Medium for Voluntary Disclosure

This paper uses the quarterly conference call as a disclosure metric to examine whether firms with less informative financial statements are more likely to respond by providing additional voluntary disclosure. After controlling for other characteristics of a firm's information environment, I find a significant inverse relation between measures of the informativeness of a firm's financial statements and the likelihood that the firm will use a quarterly conference call. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis in Verrecchia (1990) that the probability of disclosure of management's private information is negatively related to the precision of prior public information on firm value.     

Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices

This paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations, and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium. We document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations, controlling for the information in the current year's earnings. We then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher. We find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not. We find that controlling for these higher future earnings, firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest. We find, however, that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently, controlling for an estimate of the firm's fundamental value.     

Stock market listing status and real earnings management

This study analyzes real earnings management among privately held versus publicly listed firms. Our first finding is that public firms engage in more earnings management through operating activities. When a clear incentive to manage earnings in a specific direction is present we continue to find that public firms manage their earnings more than private firms. We reason that capital market pressure and ownership characteristics drive our results. Additional analyses reveal that public firms employ more real earnings management as a proportion of the total earnings management strategy. Furthermore, we find that mitigating factors of real earnings management have stronger impact in public firms. This study contributes to literature on non-accrual earnings management and to the broader understanding about the private vis-à-vis public firm reporting and operating behavior. Finally, we contribute by identifying an important societal cost of stock market listing, which is the increase in potentially value-destroying real earnings management.     

High-Technology Intangibles and Analysts' Forecasts

This study examines the association between firms' intangible assets and properties of the information contained in analysts' earnings forecasts. We hypothesize that analysts will supplement firms' financial information by placing greater relative emphasis on their own private (or idiosyncratic) information when deriving their earnings forecasts for firms with significant intangible assets. Our evidence is consistent with this hypothesis. We find that the consensus in analysts' forecasts, measured as the correlation in analysts' forecast errors, is negatively associated with a firm's level of intangible assets. This result is robust to controlling for analyst uncertainty about a firm's future earnings, which we also find to be higher for firms with high levels of internally generated (and expensed) intangibles. Given that analyst uncertainty increases and analyst consensus decreases with the level of a firm's intangible assets, we also expect and find that the degree to which the mean forecast aggregates private information and is more accurate than an individual analyst's forecast increases with a firm's intangible assets. Finally, additional analysis reveals that lower levels of analyst consensus are associated with high-technology manufacturing companies, and that this association is explained by the relatively high R&D expenditures made by these firms. Overall, our results are consistent with financial analysts augmenting the financial reporting systems of firms with higher levels of intangible assets (in terms of contributing to more accurate earnings expectations), particularly R&D-driven high-tech manufacturers.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

The effect of management earnings forecast characteristics on cost of equity capital

This study uses a framework presented in Hirst, Koonce, and Venkataraman (2008) to assess how differences in management earnings forecast characteristics influence a firm's cost of equity capital. I find that less specific forecasts, pessimistic forecasts, and forecasts that predict a loss for the period are associated with higher cost of equity capital levels and more timely forecasts and forecasts with more information content are associated with lower cost of equity capital levels. Analysis interacting control variables and forecast antecedents with forecast characteristics indicates that the effects forecast characteristics have on cost of equity capital are either enhanced or moderated depending on firm beta, firm size, firm book-to-market ratios, analyst following, prior forecast bias, and earnings quality. The results highlight the importance of interacting key variables when interpreting the market effect of management earnings forecasts.     

Intra-industry information transfers associated with earnings releases

The impact that a firm's earnings releases have on the stock prices of other firms in its industry is examined. For an identifiable sub-set of firms, the results are consistent with a significant information transfer occurring between the earnings release firm and the other firms in its industry. This subset is identified by examining the impact of the release on the stock price of the announcing firm. The magnitude of this impact is more significant for a sample of firms which have a larger percentage of their revenues in the same line of business as the earnings release firm vis-á-vis a sample with a lower percentage of their revenues from the same line of business. Alternative interpretations of the empirical results are also discussed. The research findings have implications for information content and market efficiency research and for research on policy issues associated with disclosure regulation.     

新会计准则下利润信息的合理使用——合并报表净利润与母公司报表净利润之选择

新会计准则使得合并报表净利润与母公司报表净利润之间的差异骤然扩大,这对上市公司股东和债权人的决策、上市公司股利分配以及企业集团内部的业绩考评等方面都将带来一定程度的影响。本文针对新会计准则实施后上述领域可能面临的问题,就相关决策者应如何合理使用合并报表和母公司报表净利润信息做了评析。本文认为,合并报表净利润为股东和债权人决策提供了基础性盈利信息,而母公司报表净利润则具有补充作用;就上市公司股利分配而言,母公司只有依照合并报表净利润与母公司报表净利润两者孰低原则进行股利分配,才能确保财务稳健;从内部业绩评价的角度看,考评母公司管理层的业绩时,在评价体系中应赋予合并报表和母公司报表净利润以适当的权重,从而既起到有效激励的效果,又有利于财务资源的集中控制。     

The extent of nonstationarity of beta

This paper investigates the extent of nonstationarity of beta across the firm size and the beta magnitude by suggesting the sequential parameter stationarity model and estimating change-points of betas. The high-beta firm has shorter stationary interval, which means that its beta changes more frequently than do the low-beta firm's. The firm size, however, does not have a monotonic relation with the length of stationary interval. The small and large firms have relatively shorter stationary interval than do the mid-sized firms. The average length of stationary interval is estimated about five years (exactly 54.19 months). This fact could support the currently widely-used arbitrary 5-year assumption of beta stationarity. The fluctuation of the large firm's beta is more severe than the small firm's, and the high- and low-beta firms have the relatively greater fluctuating betas than do the mid-beta firms. The frequency of detected change-points is found to be positively related to market returns. When the market return is high, the systematic risk changes more frequently, and vice versa.     

THE INFORMATIONAL VALUE OF LISTING ON THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE

In this paper, the authors test market reaction to the listing of a stock on the New York Stock Exchange independently from other attendant news and test the hypothesis that listing has different informational value for stocks that have performed differently in the prelisting period. Their findings support the argument that listing conveys positive information. Listing is observed to be of most value for firms with ambiguous earnings performance.     

UNIT MANAGEMENT BUYOUTS, STOCKHOLDER WEALTH, AND SELLING FIRMS' CHARACTERISTICS

Previous research on unit management buyouts, UMBs, has shown that selling firms benefit from the selloff transaction. The current research demonstrates that when the selling firm has either poor liquidity or poor earnings, selling firm shareholders do not benefit as much. We hypothesize that the unit managers have knowledge about the selling firm's difficulties so they do not pay as large a premium for the assets. Since the unit managers technically are employed by the selling firm shareholders, their bargaining to achieve a better price is an agency cost. Finally, selloff frequency does not affect seller abnormal returns.     

Differential information and the small firm effect

We examine a model of market equilibrium in which there is less information available about some of the securities in the market than about others. We consider the model as a potential explanation of the well-known small firm anomaly. Using period of listing as a proxy for quantity of information, we find an association between period of listing and security returns that cannot be accounted for by firm size and which is not diminished by an elimination of January returns data from our sample. Thus, we observe a new empirical regularity in the data and refer to the regularity as the ‘period of listing’ effect.     

DETERMINANTS OF GOODWILL AMORTIZATION PERIOD

This study investigates whether economic consequences have an effect on the length of the period over which goodwill is amortized. It finds that there is a significant relationship between the size of the firm and the length of the amortization period. It also finds, when the only firms included in the sample are those reporting debt covenant restrictions dependent in part on goodwill accounting, evidence that the length of the amortization period for goodwill is related to the firm's leverage.     

When does the tone of earnings press releases matter?

The tone of a firm's financial disclosure is increasingly used as a variable in panel data regressions to predict future performance and explain investors' reaction at earnings announcement. We investigate when tone is informative, and argue that the informativeness of tone increases with the information asymmetry between firms and investors. Using a sample of over 50,000 earnings press releases of about 1800 U.S. public firms between 2004 and 2015, we find that firm growth, size, age, complexity and forecast inaccuracy are key drivers of tone informativeness. The effect is economically significant, since, compared to the reference case of a transparent firm, we find that the slope coefficient of tone doubles or even quadruples in panel data regressions when the firm operates in an environment with high information asymmetry.