2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲尔普斯理论评介

本文介绍了2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃德蒙.菲尔普斯的主要理论贡献。他在宏观经济政策跨期权衡分析、“黄金律”与经济增长、宏观经济政策的“短期—长期”分析、“自然率”、构建宏观经济学的微观基础,以及结构性萧条与繁荣等诸多领域进行了开创性的研究。菲尔普斯的理论和主张对西方经济理论和经济政策的研究都有十分重大的影响。     

宏观经济波动的实体性成因——真实经济周期(RBC)理论评析

真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期性波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来自由主义经济学的重大发展。     

从研究范式的转变看当代西方宏观经济学的发展

从微观基础出发研究宏观经济问题,是当代西方宏观经济学的研究范式.从研究范式的转变可以一览当代西方宏观经济学的发展,当代研究范式的确立也预示了当代西方宏观经济学的一体化和综合化趋势.     

经济增长率与物价上涨率之间的实证分析——以武汉宏观经济现实为例

经济增长率与物价上涨率是一个国家地区宏观经济运行状态的两个最主要的指标 ,是现代宏观经济学研究的主要对象。高的经济增长率与稳定的物价在长期内是统一的 ,针对这一点 ,一方面可以从理论上加以推导 ,另一方面可以用武汉宏观经济运行数据加以验证。从中得到一些关于经济发展的政策启示     

宏观经济学的微观基础问题

总体就业水平、总体收入以及宏观经济的活动过程等宏观经济的发展情况是宏观经济学的研究对象。宏观经济学与国家经济管理息息相关。二战后,凯恩斯创立的宏观经济理论受到了很多人的认可,而且在西方国家被广泛实施,但是仍然存在很多问题,其中最重要的问题就是没有将分配理论以及价值的微观基础当作前提。虽然西方经济学以总量生产函数为出发点,想要将凯恩斯经济置于新古典的分配以及价值理论之上,却造成了凯恩斯主义的宏观经济政策没有效用以及在宏观经济学中出现了逻辑矛盾。马克思主义经济学考虑了在宏观经济学中微观基础的问题,在对资本主义性质明确了解的前提之下,提出将社会关系作为基础,对于技术关系价值总量的分配、计量以及总量间的关系这一理论不要过分依赖,而且这个理论表明了社会主义经济当中经济波动以及特有需求之间的问题,因此微观基础问题在宏观经济学中发挥着重要的作用。     

《宏观经济学》书评

由赵德海和和淑萍教授主编的《宏观经济学》教材，对现代宏观经济学进行了全面、准确、有针对性的梳理、介绍了宏观经济学的基本理论，并融合了大量宏观经济案例。以西方主流经济学的理论框架为基础，并紧跟宏观经济学的国际发展趋势，并联系当代经济社会的前沿问题，     

关于宏观经济学微观基础的若干问题

传统宏观经济理论缺乏微观基础,而新古典(New Classical)革命和新凯恩斯(New Keynesian)革命都试图把宏观经济分析建立在稳固的微观基础上,认为宏观经济学应是经济主体在约束条件限制下,根据对宏观经济形势的预期进行最优化行为这一基础上去确定宏观经济总量,但是宏观经济学的微观基础研究的局限性也随之突显出来。因此,从物理经济学的角度,分别讨论宏观经济学的微观基础,旨在探讨研究中所涉及的"代表性个体"、"预期机制"、"计量验证"等分析模式中可能存在的问题。     

经济新常态下高校宏观经济学课程教学探讨

宏观经济学课的设立是为了让学生对国内宏观经济的运行规律加强了解,同时也是让学生对宏观经济学的一些理论和方法进行掌握,现阶段院校开展的宏观经济学课存在诸多的教学问题,无论是宏观经济学课的内容还是形式,都是没有达到理想的状态,在这种局面下院校需要对宏观经济学课的开展进行改革,促进宏观经济学课整体效率的提升,帮学生在宏观经济学课上实现能力上的提升,为将来经济的整体发展做出贡献。     

浅析宏观经济学中微观基础问题的若干问题

从传统的角度看,宏观经济理论往往缺少微观基础,但是新古典革命和新凯恩斯革命都曾尝试在稳定的微观基础之上来进行宏观经济的分析研究。宏观经济学曾被认为是,在有约束条件限制的背景下,经济主体按照分析宏观经济的走向趋势采取最优化的措施,在采取这一措施的前提下确定宏观经济的总量,然而针对微观基础进行的研究也逐渐展现出其局限性。所以,本文以物理经济学为背景,对宏观经济学的微观基础进行分别研究,目的在于讨论分析进行预期机制等模式的研究中可能会出现的问题。     

对我国利率、投资、储蓄和货币供给量的协整与误差修正分析

理清中国的利率、投资、储蓄和货币供给量四个宏观经济指标之间的关系,对我国进行有效的调控具有很重要的意义。对以上四个指标进行协整和误差修正分析,判断它们的长期和短期关系。结果显示:从长期来看,这四个宏观经济变量存在很强的协整关系,且在短期范围内,这种关系对利率短期波动的影响是显著的。     

Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and short-term programs. Results indicate that students perceive more social pressure to engage in short-term programs, and higher barriers limiting participation in long-term programs. All TPB factors significantly predicted students' intentions to study abroad in both short-term and long-term programs with one exception; perceived behavioral control did not significantly predict intentions to participate in short-term programs. These findings can be used to improve marketing of short-term and long-term programs by addressing student concerns specific to each type of program, potentially increasing the number of students choosing to study abroad.     

外商直接投资与对外贸易技术溢出效应比较——基于面板因果关系的研究

开放经济中,最主要的国际经济关系是国际投资和国际贸易,二者都对东道国的产业有技术上的影响。文章运用面板单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型等现代计量经济学方法,考察外资和进出口对中国整体技术水平的影响。结果显示FDI和技术进步互为长期和短期因果关系,对外贸易是技术进步的长期和短期原因,没有证据显示外商直接投资和进出口有长期稳定关系。     

我国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

本文利用2002-2007年省际面板数据研究了我国对外直接投资的短期与长期逆向技术溢出效应。结果表明:短期内我国对外直接投资对总专利、发明和实用新型专利申请有显著的逆向溢出,而长期内只对技术含量较低的外观设计专利申请有显著的逆向溢出。此外,我国对外直接投资的短期、长期逆向技术溢出还存在着地区差异。     

The effect of health,cosmetic and social antismoking information themes on adolescents’ beliefs about smoking

The paper examines the effect of long-term health-related and short-term social and physical antismoking information on adolescents’ beliefs about smoking. Findings from a UK school-based study indicate that antismoking information about the short-term effects of smoking, such as cosmetic (e.g. yellow teeth and fingernails and smelly clothes) and fitness, have a greater impact on beliefs than long-term health-related information. The implications for the design of antismoking campaigns are explored.     

Long- vs. short-term performance perspectives of Western European,Japanese, and U.S. countries: where do they lie?

This paper examines the differences between Eastern and Western companies regarding long- vs. short-term orientations. Utilizing Hofstede’s long-term orientation index, this study scrutinizes both long- and short-term performance measurements for companies from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The findings suggest that Western European companies place an equally higher priority on both long- and short-term measures of performance compared to companies from Japan and the United States. Additionally, Japanese companies were postulated by the literature to employ a long-term orientation toward company performance greater than U.S. companies. However, our results do not support this statement, as U.S. and Japanese companies were not statistically significantly different.     

An Assessment of When,Where and Under What Conditions In-Store Sampling is Most Effective

In-store product sampling is a commonly used promotional technique designed to give prospective consumers an opportunity to experience a product prior to purchase. While prior research has documented a positive relationship between short-term sales and perceptual measures of the customer shopping experience, little is known about the long-term impact of sampling or factors that moderate its success. In this paper, we develop an empirical approach that allows us to study the short-term and long-term effects of in-store sampling on both own and competitive products. We apply our approach to six store-level scanner data sets across four different product categories and show that in-store sampling has both an immediate (short-term) and sustained (long-term) impact on sales. We also show that the impact of sampling on sales is moderated by the characteristics of the store conducting the event, and that repeated sampling for a single product leads to a multiplicative increase in its long-term sales performance. We find that, unlike many types of in-store promotion, sampling results in a category expansion effect as opposed to a pure substitution effect. We contrast the immediate and long-term sales patterns for in-store sampling to those of product displays and discuss managerially relevant differences. Finally, we demonstrate incremental profit implications and store selection scenarios for different incremental costs of conducting the in-store events using constrained optimizations.     

The effects of relational bonds on online customer satisfaction

The purpose of this empirical study is to investigate the effects of relational bonds on online customer satisfaction using gender and time horizon as moderators. The findings are three-fold. First, the financial and structural bonds have positive impacts on online shoppers’ satisfaction; however, the social bond does not. Second, the financial, social, and structural bonds have more positive impacts on female, than male, customer satisfaction. Third, the financial bond is more successful in strengthening customer satisfaction for short-term than for long-term customers; however, the structural bond is more important for long-term than for short-term customers.     

实际经济周期理论述评

由于卢卡斯批评的出现,宏观经济学在最近的20年里,又开始重新重视经济周期问题的研究。芬·基德兰德和爱德华·普雷斯科特开辟了这项问题的研究的一条新路,创立了所谓的“实际经济周期理论”。这一理论特别注意对经济微观主体应对经济环境变化的行为的观察。实际经济周期理论强调技术冲击是经济波劝的主要来源。在过去十多年里,实际经济周期理论的概念和方法已开始进入宏观经济学的主流。     

人民币利率对汇率影响的实证研究：1981—2003

定量分析人民币利率对汇率长期走势与短期波动的影响,对于中国利率市场化与汇率制度选择等问题意义重大.对时间序列变量进行单位根检验、协整检验,以及建立误差修正模型等实证研究表明:无论在长期还是短期,人民币利率对汇率都是反向影响.长期内,利率对人民币汇率存在较强的影响;短期内,利率对人民币汇率影响较弱.我国利率主要还是通过商品市场间接地对汇率产生作用.