Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment

We evaluate whether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued, even though the usual regression point estimates indicate substantial misalignment. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as to the inclusion of control variables. We then update the results using the latest vintage of the data to demonstrate how fragile the results are. We find that whatever misalignment we detected in our previous work disappears in this data set.

The pros and cons of globalization

Analysis suggests that future freer globalized trade will (1) likely benefit both rich and poor regions, (2) probably give measured percentage gains to poor places that exceed those to rich places, (3) possible exacerbate real income inequality between rich and poor, and more certainly (4) bring more lifetime uncertainty along with enlarged material gains. A backlash to freer trade, economic history suggests, will lead to weaker productivity advance, enhanced degree of monopoly, and to aggravated crony-capitalism and plutocratic lobbyist democracy.     

Rural–urban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses

Since 1978, China has experienced a rapid and unprecedented process of urbanization, created by the history's largest flow of rural–urban migration in the world. This article attempts (a) to assess the role of the cityward migration in China's urbanization in 1978–1999 and (b) to empirically investigate factors behind the migration boom with time-series and cross-section data. We find that (a) rural–urban migration made dominant contributions to Chinese urban population growth; (b) while moving together with the Chinese economy, the causal link runs from economic growth to migration, not vice versa; (c) interprovince migrants were encouraged by the rural–urban income gap and discouraged by their geographic distances to destinations; and (d) the amount of intraprovince migrants is positively related to rural–urban income gap and urban population in that province.     

Welfare measures and the composition of the bottom decile: The example of gender and extreme poverty in South Africa

We examine the composition of the bottom decile in South Africa using three alternative measures of socio-economic status (SES): an asset index, household income per capita and household expenditure per capita. We show that the gender composition of the bottom decile is sensitive to the measure used. We discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies, highlighting gender differences in asset ownership and location. This has implications for the use of asset indices for identifying the poorest members of society.     

普惠金融、政府干预对农民收入的影响

政府干预和普惠金融发展在助力农村经济发展中扮演着重要角色.通过选取山东省T市2014—2019年县域面板数据,建立随机效应模型进行实证分析,探究普惠金融、政府干预及其交互作用对农民收入的影响.结果表明:普惠金融与政府干预对农民收入的增加有显著的积极作用,且普惠金融对农民收入的影响会随着政府干预的增强而增强,政府干预对农民收入的影响也会随着普惠金融发展程度的提高而增强.基于以上研究结论,提出相应的对策建议.     

收入分配与人的全面发展关系研究

人的全面发展是人类社会发展的目标。收入分配制度通过影响生产力发展和人们的消费状况,进而影响人的全面发展。我国现阶段收入分配制度中存在的不合理因素,不仅影响了生产力发展,而且还制约了人的全面发展。文章认为,应通过改革和完善收入分配制度,调动人们的生产积极性,促进生产力发展和社会和谐发展,以实现人的全面发展的目标。     

上市公司高管薪酬与普通职工收入及其差距的实证分析

文章利用2007年852家上市公司年报数据,在扣除高管薪酬后计算了普通职工的收入,并采用了假设检验、多组均值比较等分析方法,考察了高管薪酬和普通职工收入及其差距的大小,并对其深层次的原因进行了分析,结果发现：金融保险行业高管薪酬和普通职工的收入都明显高于其他行业;虽然高管薪酬和普通职工的收入差距与行业、地域属性无关,但是远远高于2007年城乡居民收入差距,这说明高管薪酬和普通职工收入差距过大是普遍现象。     

我国电力普遍服务收入补偿机制研究

我国存在着大量的低收入群体,在现行的电价水平下,需要政府对其进行补贴来保证最基本的用电需求。本文针对低收入群体,主要是城镇低收入居民和农村贫困人口,试图构建电力普遍服务的收入补偿模型,为政府提供补贴额度计算的参考依据,并提出政策上的建议。     

最后通牒博弈实验及对我国收入分配的启示

我国收入差距过大已经是不争的事实,而缩小收入差距,实现分配的公平也已成为社会普遍的期盼。文章通过三个最后通牒博弈实验发现,权力失衡是造成博弈各方收入差距扩大、分配不公的主要原因,而且随着分配蛋糕的扩大,收入差距和分配不公会变得更严重。基于对实验结果的考察,文章认为,我国缩小收入差距、提升分配公平性的关键在于“把权力关进笼子里”,提高博弈各方的合作率;并根据实验结果提出了保证回应者拒绝权力、提高权力获得的公平性和创造双向自由选择博弈对象的条件等三方面的建议。     

The development strategy for china's travel service industry after china's WTO entry: Present status and future prospects

China's tourism market is growing in importance since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is likely that China's opening to the world market will lead to the further development of its travel service industry. Even though China will be confronted by some difficulties, its WTO commitment may have positive impacts on the travel service industry such as the development of technologies, introduction of advanced management strategies, improved industrial structure, and increased competition in the sector. This paper aims to explain the WTO‐related factors in China's travel service industry, analyzing and evaluating the sector's development strategy.     

UNION EFFECT ON THE USE OF NON‐REGULAR LABOR IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Our paper aims at analyzing the union effect on the externalization of employment relations, focusing on how labor unions affect management's strategic use of non‐regular labor within the Korean context of industrial relations. Our study presents several interesting implications. Firstly, the unions' motivator role for managerial use of non‐regular labor is more evident than its constrainer role. Secondly, union power exerts a “U‐type” impact on the use of indirect non‐regular labor, while affecting directly employed non‐regular labor in a positive linear way. Thirdly, labor unions in large establishments are more active and influential in representing their members' interests than their counterparts in small establishments with limited financial resources. In particular, the interactive function of the union's power and union leaders' attitudinal inclinations is found to be significant in the negative direction among large establishments.     

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment: evidence from China

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment remains controversial, as documented in the microfinance literature. While some studies claim that microcredit helps women increase their income earning abilities, leading to greater power to overcome cultural asymmetries, others contend that small loans allocated to women are usually controlled by their spouses, which results in more severe subordination of women and leaves them more vulnerable to the patriarchy system within the household and/or at society level. This paper evaluates the empowerment impact of microcredit on rural women in China. Logistic regression is employed for empirical analysis and data are collected through a rural household survey. The results confirm that microcredit has a significant impact on five dimensions of women's empowerment, ranging from economic security to awareness of social/legal issues.     

文化创意产业版权保护的博弈分析

文化创意产业作为国民经济的重要组成部分和第三产业的支柱,对经济发展起到极大的推进作用,而互联网对以版权为核心的文化创意产业带来了巨大冲击。面对版权保护,国内文化创意企业陷入“囚徒困境”,使整个产业受到损失。基于静态博弈模型,以版权保护的视角,对文化创意企业间的关系进行了博弈分析,得出通过加大对盗版的惩罚力度和提高正版企业社会声誉等方式保护版权的结论,最后对文化创意产业的版权保护提供对应的建议。     

我国房地产上市公司负债结构分析

研究了我国房地产上市公司负债结构现状及其成因和影响。通过有关的财务数据分析发现,我国房地产行业负债水平高于大部分行业,国有房企的资产负债率的分布相对于非国有房企更集中。我国房地产上市公司六个主要负债来源中占比最大的是预收账款和长期借款,其次是应付账款和短期借款,最后是应付票据和应付债券,非国有房企依赖银行借款的程度比国有房企大。这种现状与房地产上市公司的资源和偿债能力等公司内部因素和房地产行业的负债融资特点、金融体系等外部因素有关,对公司投资、盈利以及整个市场的金融风险都有影响。     

Social Services and The GATS: Key Issues and Concerns

Concerns have been voiced about liberalizing social service such as health and education under the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and how this may undermine national sovereignty and autonomy in social policy making. This paper indicates that these concerns mainly stem from misunderstandings and lack of information about the GATS. It tries to dispel unwarranted fears by highlighting the GATS framework and commitment structure and explaining how countries can retain their autonomy on policies concerning public services, under the GATS. The paper also points out certain problem areas that are due to ambiguities and weaknesses in the GATS framework. It suggests the need to strengthen the GATS framework and address these problems in the ongoing GATS 2000 negotiations.     

Purchasing power parity: Granger causality tests for the yen–dollar exchange rate

The paper analyses the causality between the Japanese prices and the yen–dollar exchange rate. It explains the long-term appreciation trend of the Japanese yen and why the Japanese yen proved strong even during the economic slump of the 1990s. The paper suggests that the appreciation of the Japanese yen forced the Japanese enterprises into price reductions and productivity increases, which put a floor under the high level of the yen and, thus, initiated rounds of appreciation. This corresponds to the conjecture of a vicious (virtuous) circle of appreciation and price adaptation. Further, there is evidence that the yen-appreciation has been accommodated by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. This corresponds to the conjecture that the recent Japanese deflation is imposed from outside via the exchange rate.     

The Evolution of Australian Monetary Policy in the 1950s

The 1950s in Australia was a decade of major change in both central banking and the financial system. The changes fed upon one another: financial innovation responded to monetary policy; the authorities adapted their strategy in response. The private banks resisted the harnessing of their balance sheets to policy, and a protracted process of conflict and compromise unfolded. Meanwhile, the growth of non‐bank financial institutions undermined bank‐centred policy. Official controls on bank interest rates opened a space for the new intermediaries. The central bank's attempt to restrain their growth contributed to a credit squeeze at the turn of the 1960s.     

健全社会保障制度是解决农村消费需求不足的关键

我国农村消费需求不足与农村社会保障制度建设滞后有密切关系。健全的农村社会保障制度可以促进农村市场经济的发展，为增加农民收入创造根本条件；可以加大对农村居民的转移性支出，增强农民的消费能力；可以推动农村城镇化发展和劳动办转移，为增加农民收入开辟途径；可以促使农民加大人力资本投资，为农民创收提供条件；可以改变农民对未来的收入和支出预期，增强消费信心。必须大力推进农村社会保障制度建设，为解决农村消费需求不足、扩大内需创造条件。