Net Settlement and Counterparty Risk: Evidence from the Formation of the New York Stock Exchange Clearing House in 1892

The securities settlement literature indicates that centralized settlement can reduce monitoring incentives and lead to excessive risk‐taking and inefficient risk‐sharing. This paper examines broker‐failure rates and counterparty losses surrounding the transition from bilateral to multilateral settlement facilitated by the NYSE. Study results provide evidence that net settlement reduced failures without diminishing risk constraining incentives. The study constructs a controlled comparison of broker failures through data collected from the NYSE and the Consolidated Stock Exchange, which traded identical securities settled under different systems. The results suggest that multilateral settlement is advantageous when financial markets are highly stressed.     

关于对证券公司实施宏观审慎监管的思考

此次金融危机之后,宏观审慎监管的重要性得到了国际监管者的普遍认同,并已经在最新的监管规定提案中得到体现。宏观审慎监管目的在于通过一些制度设计控制系统性风险的危害,保持市场稳定发展。根据我国券商目前发展特点和潜在风险,建议:一是借鉴国际先进统计分析方法,加强对系统性风险的度量和监控;二是引入逆周期风险调节机制,增加逆周期资本准备;三是以分类监管制度为基础,提高风险监管制度的灵活性,强化系统内重点证券公司的风险监管。     

基于金融消费者权益保护视角的宏、微观审慎监管模式比较

次贷危机的发生再次引发人们对微观审慎监管模式的反思,由于缺乏统一的监管者,忽略金融控股集团在衍生品市场上共同风险暴露、对顺周期性效应无能为力等原因,使得单纯的微观审慎监管在降低单个金融机构的个体风险的同时提高了系统性风险,难以保证金融体系的稳定。后危机时代加强宏观审慎监管成为改革的主要方向,文章从金融消费者保护视角反思微观审慎监管模式的缺陷,提出必须完善我国宏、微观审慎监管,切实加强对金融消费者权益保护的建议。     

公允价值会计能否放大银行体系的系统性风险

宏观审慎监管框架下公允价值会计被认为是顺周期机制,放大了银行体系的系统性风险而广受诟病。本文尝试从正向冲击和逆向冲击角度研究公允价值是否存在放大作用。研究发现两类冲击下系统性风险均存在;公允价值会计作用不对称,逆向冲击下放大了系统性风险,正向冲击下作用不明显;进一步分析逆向冲击的作用渠道时发现,市场流动性不足是放大作用的显著原因,银行以公允价值计价的风险敞口和资本充足率对放大作用没有显著影响。     

系统性风险监管的跨国比较与经验借鉴

美国次贷危机,逐步演变为席卷全球的金融危机。就其中的系统性风险监管而言,美国系统性风险监管的教训惨痛,其监管理论和做法的缺陷是重要原因。中国系统性风险监管的成功经验在于,力行宏观审慎监管,使金融体系增强风险抵御能力;实施逆周期调控,保证金融体系稳健运行;适时风险警示,提早采取应对措施;政府及时干预,避免危机传染。中国必须坚持有中国特色的监管理念与原则,认真总结系统性风险监管经验,更好地促进国民经济健康发展。     

Market Reactions to the Hong Kong Trading Suspensions: Mandatory versus Voluntary

This paper investigates the market reactions to regulator-initiated (mandatory) suspension and issuer-initiated (voluntary) suspension on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. It is found that there is substantial devaluation of the stocks during either suspension, and both the variance and trading volume are higher in the post-suspension period than in the pre-suspension period. However, the changes in value and variance are sensitive to the reason for the suspension. The evidence shows that mandatory suspensions are more effective than voluntary suspensions in disseminating information, although both suspensions may not effectively ease unusual volatility immediately.     

The performance of stocks that are reverse split

An unusually high number of Nasdaq National Market stocks were reverse split following the decline in Nasdaq prices in the year 2000. We test whether these splits were driven by the overall market decline. We find that the performance of stocks with reverse splits in poor overall stock market conditions is better (less negative) than that in good market conditions, and that the differences in performance appear three to five months after the split. This suggests that the longer-term outcomes of reverse stock splits are associated with the market environment at the time of the split. In view of this, changes that Nasdaq made to relax some of its listing standards are well justified.

Order-to-trade ratios and market liquidity

We study the impact on market liquidity of the introduction of a penalty for high order-to-trade ratios (OTRs), implemented by the Italian Stock Exchange to curtail high-frequency quote submission. We find that the fee is associated with a collapse in the quoted depth of the stocks that make up the bulk of trading in Italian equities and with an increase in price impacts of trading across the treated stocks. Spreads do not change, however. Stocks from a pan-European control sample show no such liquidity changes. Thus, the Italian OTR fee had the effect of making Italian stocks markets more shallow and less resilient. Large stocks are more severely affected than midcaps. We also find evidence of a limited decrease in turnover. Consolidated liquidity, constructed by aggregating across all electronic trading venues for these stocks, decreases just like that on the main exchange. Thus, liquidity was not simply diverted from the main exchange, it was reduced in aggregate.     

宏观审慎政策:选择什么目标,需要什么工具

包括逆周期性资本比率、动态准备金、贷款价值比率、资本管制等在内的现有宏观审慎政策工具,分别有不同的效果及其局限性,而且宏观审慎政策的有效实施需要与货币政策、财政政策协调配合。因此,采取谨慎还是积极的政策框架取决于理论研究和政策试验的结果。     

The ex-dividend day stock price anomaly: evidence from the Greek stock market

This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004. We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.

当前差别存款准备金政策的制约因素及对策

差别准备金动态调控政策是我国建立逆周期宏观审慎管理框架,防范金融机构系统性风险的重要举措。本文围绕宏观审慎管理念和差别化调控思路,结合淄博市法人金融机构的具体情况,分析了2011年差别准备金动态调控中遇到的机制障碍,就如何完善差别准备金动态调控工具提出了政策建议。     

Liquidity Commonality in the London Stock Exchange

Abstract:  A number of events such as the international market crash of October 1987 and the 1997 East Asian crisis show that individual firm liquidity is affected by market-wide factors. However, research in systematic liquidity is still at an embryonic stage and given the gap in the literature, the paper offers first time evidence (to the best of our knowledge) on the presence of systematic liquidity in the UK using FTSE100 and FTSE250 stocks. The unique setting of the London Stock Exchange as regards changes in trading regimes, allows an original answer as to whether changes in the nature of market making from obligatory to non-obligatory, affect commonality in liquidity. Results indicate that commonality is quite strong for FTSE100 stocks at individual and portfolio level, while for the FTSE250 it is strong only at portfolio level. Overall commonality is on average similar across trading regimes, irrespective of the nature of the provision of liquidity.     

系统性风险与宏观审慎监管——基于美国银行业的实证研究

后危机时期,国际金融界开始反思金融监管体制的弊端,加强基于系统性风险的宏观审慎监管,维护金融稳定成为今后改革的方向。以2009年初美联储进行压力测试的美国18家大银行为研究对象,对其风险波动率和系统性风险予以度量。实证研究表明,2007年次贷危机爆发起,美国银行业的系统性风险从低谷走向高峰,至今虽有所缓释,但仍高于危机前的水平。因此,金融监管目标框架应该是:以控制系统性风险为中心,加强宏观审慎监管,保持微观审慎监管,确保金融体系的安全与健康。     

Developing countries converging with developed-country accounting standards: Evidence from South Africa and Mexico

I examine the usefulness (relevance and timeliness) of earnings announcements in two emerging markets, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores Stock Exchange (BMV). A weighted least-squares regression is used to test the association of book values of earnings and equity with firm market value. I find that, on JSE and BMV, earnings and/or book value of equity are value relevant in explaining stock prices. I also find that this association is greater in 2000 as compared to 1998 on the BMV. Regarding timeliness, I find that earnings announcements are accompanied by unusually different returns on JSE, but not on BMV. Market infrastructure, specifically insider-trading rules, may explain BMV results. I suggest that accounting and market infrastructure interact and that such interaction is valuable input to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in their deliberations regarding one set of accounting regulations for all countries.     

Stock prices and the flow of information in the Athens Stock Exchange

The paper investigates the dynamics of price changes and information flow to the market in the Athens Stock Exchange in Greece using daily data over the period 1988 to 1993. A generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model in stock returns is shown to reflect time dependence in the process generating information flow to the market. Using daily trading volume or value as proxies for information flow, we find them to be significant in explaining the variance of daily returns and to reduce GARCH effects substantially. This has implications for the informational efficiency of the market.