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1.
Static tradeoff theories, which do not explicitly treat the impact of transaction costs, do not explain the policy of asymmetry between frequent small debt transactions and infrequent large equity transactions. Nor do these theories explain why the debt ratio is allowed to wander a considerable distance from its alleged static optimum, or how much of a distance should be tolerated. We offer a class of diffusion models that mimic this behaviour in a stochastic-dynamic framework and are designed to optimize a financing strategy using any static tradeoff theory as input. The models developed reveal the determinants of the size and frequency of equity transactions and the range of values over which leverage variations are tolerated in four generic scenarios. They also yield a new formulation of the cost of capital that recognizes stochastic transaction costs and a penalty for deviation from any static-optimal leverage. Our class of models augments the pecking order theory, provides a flexible quantitative framework for its implementation as a decision tool, and facilitates the formulation of additional hypotheses for its empirical validation. Symmetrically, our results show the importance of dynamic factors in designing and interpreting empirical tests of static tradeoff theories. The results presented have important implications for the role played by static tradeoff theories in a stochastic-dynamic framework. One such implication is that the static-optimal leverage has no direct effect on the firm's leverage policy in this setting. The target leverage for refinancing transactions is different from the static-optimal leverage, and the mean leverage is generally different from both. As a consequence, the latter cannot be used to estimate the former. Another implication is that even when the mean leverage equals the static optimum, mean reversion is not an optimal behaviour and therefore not a legitimate test for the existence of a static tradeoff in a dynamic context. Still another implication is that wide variations in leverage ratios cannot be interpreted as evidence of leverage indifference. It follows that the pecking order theory is consistent with static tradeoff theories and does not require the assumption of leverage indifference.  相似文献   

2.
本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示:东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一,但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但宏观经济政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。  相似文献   

3.
The application of a SWARCH model to stock market returns allows one to endogenously determine the regime dependence of the stock market volatility. Comparison of the results from a sample of daily data from five major stock markets shows that the majority of the markets switch regimes simultaneously. This fact is used to investigate the relation between market volatility and the behaviour of the variance—;covariance matrix. It is found that the international variance—;covariance matrix is not stable and that changes in the matrix are dependent on the volatility regime. A high level of variance causes an increase in the average correlation coefficient. The co-movement of the markets is further described by a steady increase in the covariance over the whole sample period. It can be shown that both the time component and the regime dependence of the average correlation have separate and significant explanatory power.  相似文献   

4.
    
Covered Interest Parity (CIP) holds in the 90 and 180 forward market for the AUD/USD spot exchange rate provided fully modified least absolute deviation model (FM-LAD) procedures are applied to daily data for the period from December 2, 1985 to December 29, 2000. CIP fails if corrected ordinary least squares (OLS) and fully modified OLS (FM-OLS) procedures are applied. However, UIP fails in both markets on early data: December 2, 1985 to December 31, 1991, but holds in the 90-day market in a later subperiod: January 2, 1992 to December 29, 2000 FM. UIP is modified (M) to accommodate a potential risk premium. The MUIP model does not provide strong evidence suggesting the presence of a time-varying risk premium (TRP).  相似文献   

5.
美国爆发次贷危机以来,采用了一系列的政策手段,来减少危机对美国经济的影响,其中最主要、使用最频繁的政策手段就是降低利率和注资。本文通过货币金融学的经典理论对这两种政策手段的治理效果进行研究,分析政策传导途径中的问题和关键因素,解释了在短期内政策效果不明显以致危机继续蔓延的原因。  相似文献   

6.
本文在两国模型的DSGE框架下引入宏观审慎政策监管机制,把金融摩擦、国际资本流动和宏观审慎政策纳入同一个一般均衡分析框架。通过国际贸易和国际资本流动机制,考察宏观审慎政策的国际影响机制。基于我国的模拟分析结果表明,第一,对于我国来说,宏观审慎政策的国际合作不仅能够有效地应对国内经济冲击,也有助于抵御外部经济冲击。第二,我国推动构建国际宏观审慎政策长效合作机制,有助于积极应对国际资本流动,促进我国资本市场进一步开放。第三,我国宏观审慎政策存在国际溢出效应,但是对其他国家的影响并不明显。  相似文献   

7.
跨国多元化战略是否对其资本结构产生影响是跨国多元化领域中相对较新的研究领域。本文全面地回顾了跨国多元化经营对资本结构影响的理论和实证成果,分析了相关影响因素的作用机理,在此基础上构建了跨国多元化经营影响资本结构的基本框架。  相似文献   

8.
通过对中国金融运行的实证检验和分析发现,以银行中介和金融市场划分的两种金融结构各有优势,只要能够满足金融资源高效配置的金融结构都符合经济发展的需要,不必对金融结构进行人为的割裂。中国的金融体系存在着转化投资的高效率和资源配置的低效率这样一对突出矛盾,其主要原因是金融资源的配置失当,这是当前中国金融稳定的潜在威胁,解决问题的关键是要对金融体系进行市场化改革并完善基础设施建设。  相似文献   

9.
本文以信息公开中的财务数据为依据,对教育部直属高校的资金结构现状进行分析,并按地域将其区分四个地区进行比较。分析结果表明,我国教育部直属高校资金来源呈现多元化格局,且不同地区间,高校的资金结构差异较为明显。这种差异的背后,隐含着筹资多元化对财务管理提出了新要求、地区间教育质量不均衡日益显著等突出问题。本文针对这些问题,提出应探寻优化高校资金结构的有效途径,树立以多元化筹资为视角的财务管理新观念,以开放的视角拓展筹资渠道,注重绩效,促进教育部直属高校的内涵式发展等一系列建议。  相似文献   

10.
金融发展与企业债务融资   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
江伟  李斌 《中国会计评论》2006,4(2):255-276
本文通过我国各地区金融发展的差距研究了金融发展对公司债务融资决策的影响,研究结果表明:①金融越发展,企业的短期债务比率越高;②金融发展有助于可抵押资产较少的企业获得债务融资;③金融发展有助于规模较小的企业获得债务融资和长期债务融资;④金融发展有助于那些依赖无形资产投资的企业获得债务融资和短期债务融资。这些研究结果不仅可以深化我们对金融发展如何影响公司融资决策的理解,而且可以使我们对金融发展促进经济增长的微观机理有更加深入的了解。  相似文献   

11.
Historical research domestically and internationally suggests that differences in capital structures exist for industry classification, firm size and nationality. However, the data for most of these previous studies are based on book values, include a limited number of countries, are not up-to-date, and specifically do not cover the period of the late 1980s when there were important developments in the globalization of financial markets. In addition, no single study specifically compares all seven of the world's major industrial nations (G7 Nations). Financial theory would suggest that in an efficient global market the capital structure of identical firms in different nations would be the same. If international market imperfections still exist through the 1980s, current capital structures and costs may be different among similar firms in different nations; and business advantages (or disadvantages) may provide profits (or costs) to firms incorporated in different countries. The intent of this research is empirically to update the literature with recent international data on both a book value and market value basis and to include for the first time in a single study all the G7 Nations. The results suggest significant financial structure differences still exist among the G7 countries. Specifically, on a market value basis France, Italy and Germany tend to use a higher proportion of total debt, US, UK, Canada and Japan tend to use less debt, and France, Italy and Canada tend to use a higher proportion of institutional debt (non-spontaneous funds) than the US, UK, Japan and Germany.  相似文献   

12.
县域民间借贷的调查分析及对策建议   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
以个案方式对一个县域民间借贷进行了详细调查,调查发现民间借贷规模扩大,利率偏高、纠纷减少等现象,民间借贷繁荣是有内因和外因共同作用的结果。民间借贷对县域经济既存在积极的影响也存在消极的影响。规范民间借贷活动,要从法规建设、市场环境和金融改革多方面入手。  相似文献   

13.
治理结构与市场结构:一个金融创新的制度视角   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
金融创新是商业银行通过实现规模经济和范围经济,获得超额利润的必由之路,但是只有在健全的法人治理结构(总行与分支机构间信息对称、监督有效)下,商业银行才有创新的动力;即使商业银行存在创新的内部激励,在当前商业银行寡头市场条件下的“资金上存”机制会削弱其创新积极性;商业银行金融创新必须立足于改革内外激励机制,实现可持续发展。  相似文献   

14.
随着金融危机的不断深化,国际金融形势的变化越来越引人注目,金融危机背景下的中国经济也面临着巨大考验。本文从虚拟经济与实体经济的关系、国际短期资本流动、国际间政策协调三个方面对美国历史上两次世界性金融危机的情况进行比较分析,得出相应结论及对我国的启示。  相似文献   

15.
资金密集型企业具有资本有机构成高,单位劳动力占用资金多,产品成本中物化劳动消耗所占比例大等特征。通过对30家电力上市公司2010到2012年的资本结构与公司财务绩效的实证研究发现,资金密集型企业的资产负债率在一定限度内,与其财务绩效正相关,超过这一限度,则与其财务绩效负相关,流动负债比率与其财务绩效正相关,国有股比例与其财务绩效负相关,股权集中度与其财务绩效不存在正相关关系,企业经营规模与其财务绩效正相关。为此,资金密集型企业必须创新融资方式,拓宽融资渠道,保持适度的债务融资比例,适当提高流动负债比例,适当降低国有股比例。只有这样,才能提高企业的财务绩效,促进企业持续稳定发展。  相似文献   

16.
本文通过构建包含金融结构的NK-DSGE模型,分析在不同的金融结构下,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的扩展型货币政策能否更加有效地熨平经济波动.研究表明:(1)相比传统货币政策,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的货币政策不仅能更好地熨平宏观经济波动、缩短波动持续期,还能提升社会福利;(2)在扩展型货币政策框架下,央行需结合不同类型冲击下金融结构与宏观调控变量波动的异质相关性,依据金融结构市场化进程,灵活调整其对各个变量的调控力度;(3)在扩展型货币政策框架下,当经济体系面临非持续性技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击或金融冲击时,金融结构市场化程度越高,社会福利增进效果越好.本文的研究为宏观经济调控政策特别是货币政策决策提供了有益启示,或可为新时期增强宏观经济调控效果、构建兼顾金融稳定和经济稳定的平衡发展路径提供新思路和新抓手.  相似文献   

17.
本文通过检验我国中央银行沟通对金融市场的影响,间接考察了其是否具有货币政策工具的效力。分析结果表明:我国中央银行沟通对短期利率和股票日收益率水平及波动性具有显著的、与预期一致的影响,但对长期利率的影响不明显;书面沟通与口头沟通相比,后者的效力更强一些,并且在口头沟通中,中央银行行长比其他人更能影响金融市场。主要的政策含义是沟通可以作为我国货币政策一种新的工具,与传统的工具配合使用有利于提高货币政策的有效性。  相似文献   

18.
日益活跃的跨境资本流动与金融波动的关系备受学术界关注,"国际风险承担渠道效应"的提出使人们开始重视金融中介在其中发挥的重要作用。本文基于全球79个国家1996-2017年的面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法,考察了跨境资本流动对金融波动的影响,以及"国际风险承担渠道效应"存在与否。研究结果表明:大规模的跨境资本流动会增大金融体系脆弱性,加剧金融波动,对一国金融稳定造成强有力的威胁;跨境资本巨额的流出与流入均无助于金融稳定;跨境资本流动会通过影响金融中介的风险感知来改变其风险承担行为,最终会进一步放大跨境资本流动对金融稳定的负向作用,即存在"国际风险承担渠道效应"。因此,中国应坚持完善跨境资本流动管理体系与健全宏观审慎监管框架,严守资本充足率这一重要风险防线,加强对跨境资本和金融中介行为的监管,维护金融稳定。  相似文献   

19.
In this era of rapid globalization of financial markets there has been a substantial increase in cross-listings of stocks in foreign and regional capital markets. As many as a third to a half of the stocks in some major exchanges are foreign listed. The multiple listings of stocks has major implications for the concept of systematic risk. This paper demonstrates that the estimator for systematic risk and the methodology itself changes when stocks are listed in multiple markets. The paper suggests general procedures, using maximum information from the multiple markets, to obtain the estimator of beta under a variety of assumptions about the error terms of the market models in the different capital markets. The assumptions pertain both to the volatilities of the abnormal returns in each market, and to the relationship between the markets.  相似文献   

20.
基于金融安全的资本流动:理论解读与中国实证   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
基于IS-LM-BP模型阐述了资本流动—经济非均衡的生成机制,揭示了资本流入规模、资本流入结构、外汇储备及经常项目是影响一国资本流动金融安全的主要因素。通过建立资本流动影响金融安全的测算体系,对1996~2005年我国资本流动进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)中国资本流动状况总体较好,状态界定为安全;(2)资本流入规模正常,但期限结构不够合理;(3)现阶段我国资本流动的安全运行有保障。  相似文献   

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