Measuring market distortion: international comparisons,policy and competitiveness

This paper develops a framework to simultaneously estimate production possibility frontiers and measure distortions in factor and product markets. The econometric results, based on a panel of 61 countries over the period 1970 through 1985, reveal very little distortion in factor markets but considerable distortion in product markets. In addition, the distortions tend to vary with the cyclical behaviour of economic activity. Further, the results suggest that in order to improve efficiency, commercial policy should aim at reducing product-market distortions rather than factor-market ones.     

DO SMALL DEPOSITORS EXIT FROM BAD BANKS? EVIDENCE FROM SMALL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN JAPAN*

This paper empirically investigates the issues of depositor discipline by examining deposit shifts among Japan's small banking institutions in the 1990s. We are concerned with two questions: (i) whether depositor discipline has effectively worked since the early 1990s, and (ii) whether changes in the regulatory frameworks, including the deposit insurance scheme, affect depositor discipline. Our findings support the effective role of market discipline by depositors. Riskier institutions attract smaller amounts of deposits and are required to pay higher interest rates. Depositor sensitivity to bank risks has changed over time, in compliance with the historical developments of the deposit insurance system.JEL Classification Numbers: G21, G32.     

The Number of Bank Relationships of SMEs: A Disaggregated Analysis of Changes in the Swiss Loan Market

This paper investigates changes in the number of bank relationships of small and medium-sized enterprises in Switzerland from 1996 to 2002. It differentiates between overall bank relationships and lending relationships and disaggregates the loan market with respect to firm sizes, industries and banking groups. On average, bank lending declined, and the concentration of lending relationships increased. The changes seem to have been driven by demand and supply for medium-sized firms, but only by supply for micro and small firms. Supply-side reductions resulted from a merger and changes in credit risk management by major banks. We find evidence of increasing specialization of larger banks on transaction lending and of smaller and regional banks on relationship lending.     

The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the effects of interest rate and foreign exchange rate changes on Turkish banks' stock returns using the OLS and GARCH estimation models. The results suggest that interest rate and exchange rate changes have a negative and significant impact on the conditional bank stock return. Also, bank stock return sensitivities are found to be stronger for market return than interest rates and exchange rates, implying that market return plays an important role in determining the dynamics of conditional return of bank stocks. The results further indicate that interest rate and exchange rate volatility are the major determinants of the conditional bank stock return volatility.     

Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system

Novel data-driven analyses, appropriate for detecting economic instability in non-stationary time series, are developed using functional principal component analysis (fPCA) and Synchrosqueezing. fPCA is applied in a new way, aggregating multiple financial time series to identify periods of macroeconomic instability. Synchrosqueezing, a technique which generates a time-series’ time-dependent spectral decomposition, is modified to develop a new quantitative measure of local dynamical changes and structural breaks. The merit of this integrated technique is demonstrated by analyzing financial data from 1986 to 2012 that includes equity indices, securities and commodities, and foreign exchange. Both procedures successfully detect key historic periods of instability. Moreover, the results reveal distinctions between periods of long-term gradual change in addition to structural breaks. These tools offer new insights into the analysis of financial instability.     

Are all financial crises created equal? Wholesale funding and two financial crises

We use financial information on banks from Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania to examine the role of wholesale funding on the transmission of financial crises to bank lending, as well as to study the response of financial institutions in different regions during the crises. We consider the role of wholesale funding during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). Our results suggest that during the GFC, wholesale funding dependence had a negative effect on loans growth across regions, but with substantial regional heterogeneity. The growth of loans from financial institutions in Asia and Europe was consistently sensitive to wholesale funding dependence. Although wholesale funding did not play a significant role in the transmission mechanism of the AFC, a subsample of financial institutions in Asia, who depended more heavily on wholesale funding, experienced a faster loan growth and may have been able to better withstand the crisis.     

Profitability of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

This article uses data for 418 banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe between 1993 and 2004 to analyse the impact of the mode of foreign bank entry and of the parent institutions’ characteristics on bank profitability. The results show that foreign banks are affected both less and differently by domestic economic conditions, but do react to the health of the parent banks and the economic situations in their home countries. Their mode of entry is important: profits of banks entering via greenfield investment exhibit a complementary relationship with their parent banks, whereas profits of banks acquiring domestic institutions are negatively related to the opportunity costs in their home markets.     

Financial structure,productivity, and risk of foreign direct investment

This study investigates how heterogeneous firms choose their lenders when they raise external finance for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and how the choice of financing structure affects FDI activities. We establish an asymmetric information model to analyze why certain firms use private bank loans while others use public bonds to finance foreign production. The hidden information is the productivity shock to FDI. Banks are willing to monitor the risk of FDI, while bondholders are not; hence, banks act as a costly middleman that enables firms to avoid excessive risk. We show that firms’ productivity levels, the riskiness of FDI, and the relative costs of bank finance and bond finance are three key determinants of the firm’s financing choice. Countries with higher productivity, higher bank costs, or investment in less risky destinations, use more bond finance than bank finance. These results are supported by evidence from OECD countries.     

IS THE COST OF DEBT CAPITAL HIGHER FOR YOUNGER FIRMS?

Not much is known about the returns to aging (maturing) in the market for small business finance. Using a large panel of closely held micro firms, we document that the cost of debt capital is higher for young firms. The main finding of this paper is that this negative qualitative relation is also obtained when cross‐sectional variation in unobservable creditworthiness of small businesses and within‐firm (i.e., inter‐temporal) variation in their observable creditworthiness are held constant. We control for the former by firm‐specific fixed effects and for the latter by a commercial credit score. We also provide an estimate of the quantitative magnitude of the aging effect, on which both economic theory and earlier empirical research are silent. We find that when a small business ages one year, its cost of debt capital decreases by 1–2 basis points. The effect is neither negligible nor alarmingly large.     

How Do Banks Determine Capital? Evidence from Germany

Abstract. We analyse whether the determinants of capital found in the previous literature hold for the special German banking sector comprising three characteristic banking groups including savings banks, cooperative banks and other banks, which differ regarding their ownership and their access to the capital market. Through the use of accounting data from German banks between 1992 and 2001 we find evidence in accordance with the buffer theory of capital for all German banking groups. Furthermore, we also detect some remarkable differences between the three banking groups regarding their determination of capital due to institutional characteristics.     

BOARD GOVERNANCE: DOES OWNERSHIP MATTER?

Good governance is crucial to achieving an organization's mission. Nevertheless, little is known about how the structure of governance is influenced by the nonprofit (NPO) or for‐profit ownership (FPO) structure of an organization, partly because they tend to be active in different sectors. In this paper we overcome this challenge by using data from a global sample of 392 microfinance institutions. The results show that the average NPO has a larger board, more female directors, and a higher number of board meetings than the average FPO. Moreover, where there are larger boards and more frequent board meetings, this has a positive effect on the financial performance of NPOs. It is thus confirmed that ownership structures influence boards’ characteristics and that some board mechanisms are more efficient in some ownership structures than in others. An effective board design should thus be based on a firm's ownership structure.     

COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY BETWEEN COOPERATIVE,SAVINGS AND COMMERCIAL BANKS IN EUROPE USING THE FRONTIER APPROACH

We test competing hypotheses concerning the comparative behavior of shareholder‐owned commercial banks and stakeholder‐orientated cooperative and savings banks in European banking. One hypothesis is that the risk culture and business models of stakeholder and shareholder‐owned banks have become more alike and so cost efficiency has converged between bank ownership structures. The alternative hypothesis suggests that institutional differences do matter and lead, amongst other things, to variation in network effects and monitoring mechanisms producing differing behaviors and efficiency outcomes. By using a novel panel data set of 521 European banks during 1994–2010, we find: (i) mean inefficiency scores vary by ownership type and are lower for cooperative banks than for commercial and savings banks; (ii) there is a large variation in inefficiency scores among banks within each ownership type but the lower variance for cooperative banks indicates that they are the most homogeneous group; (iii) the inefficiency distribution of savings and commercial banks appear to arise from the same distribution, but this does not hold for cooperative banks. As such our findings are more consistent with the alternative hypothesis. Our first two findings buttress those studies that found significant differences between European banks with differing ownership structures, while our third finding on the significance of the cycle to the distribution of inefficiency is novel.     

中国上市银行股权结构与绩效研究——基于创新指标的实证

从商业银行经营的特殊性出发,通过构造一个反映银行绩效的综合性指标,以及对股权结构和银行绩效关系进行的实证研究表明:第一大股东持股比例与银行绩效之间呈现比较复杂的曲线关系,第一大股东中的国家股性质和国有法人股性质均与银行绩效负相关,但比较而言,国有法人股性质更有利于银行绩效的提高;前五大股东持股比例、前十大股东持股比例、第一大股东的控股能力均与银行绩效负相关;股权结构的设置对银行绩效不存在必然的联系。因此,银行股改上市仅是向完善公司治理结构走出的一小步而已。     

The Perverse Effect of Debt Tax Benefits on Firm Investment Decisions

In this paper we question the idea that the deduction of debt interest is always an effective policy instrument to spur firm investment. We analyse the investment decision in presence of a borrowing constraint on the amount of debt that the firm can raise. We show that if the debt interest rate is decreasing in the firm's capital accumulation and another financial resource more expensive than debt is available (at least for levels of debt lower than the upper bound), then the deduction of the debt interest from taxes on capital income may reduce firm investment. This theoretical result is relevant for economic policy decisions when financial intermediaries are not willing to finance beyond a certain threshold but firms have access to other sources of finance.     

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

Abstract. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000–05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations.     

Seasonality of income and poverty in Bangladesh

Seasonal food deprivation in Bangladesh, locally known as Monga, sometimes rises to the level of famine during the pre-harvest period of aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that income and consumption are lower during Monga than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. Econometric estimates reject the hypothesis of perfect consumption smoothing. In the northwestern region of greater Rangpur, rural households suffer disproportionately from Monga. Seasonal differences in poverty across regions are due mainly to differences in household-specific seasonality of income and consumption. Income diversification explains the lower incidence of income seasonality observed in non-Rangpur regions. To contain seasonal hunger in greater Rangpur, public policies should promote rural income diversification together with seasonal migration. A flexible microfinance scheme that provides both production and consumption loans on flexible repayment terms could help diversify income and reduce seasonality of income and poverty.