Financial integration and consumption risk sharing in East Asia

This paper estimates the degree of consumption risk sharing and analyzes the channels of consumption risk sharing among the 10 East Asian countries. Estimation results show that a bulk of cross-sectional variance of GDP, about 80 percent, is not smoothed within the region which suggests that the degree of consumption risk sharing is far from complete and very low in the region. Capital markets play a minimal role and credit markets provide a positive but limited role. These results imply that the market channels do not function well in smoothing idiosyncratic output shocks. To be consistent, we also found that the potential welfare gains from consumption risk sharing within East Asia are quite large. Compared to the OECD countries, the degree of risk sharing achieved is lower and the potential gains are larger in the East Asian countries, but the degree of risk sharing and the potential gains are similar in relatively more developed East Asian countries.     

A provincial view of consumption risk sharing in Korea:Asset classes as shock absorbers

Using a unique data set on provincial net factor income flows disaggregated across the three asset classes of debt, equity and Foreign Direct Investment reinvested earnings in Korea, we investigated how these asset channels impacted consumption risk sharing during the Global Financial Crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Adopting spatial panel methods, this study found in the main that net factor flows of debt, equity and Foreign Direct Investment retained earnings have all contributed favourably to consumption risk sharing during these episodes, with Foreign Direct Investment retained earnings robust in its positive contribution in buffering shocks to consumption. These results suggest that one of the alleged benefits of financial integration in terms of providing the insurance needed to cushion the economy against adverse shocks is tangible and real at least in the context of Korea. We also obtain evidence that apart from asset channels, the combination of the government's social transfer payments and a certain measure of labour mobility help to contribute in mitigating shocks to consumption.     

Legal frameworks and credit information systems in China,Korea, and Singapore

We analyse the relationship between Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus in East Asia by observing credit information markets, in particular, in China, Singapore, and Korea. Singapore's credit information system consists of only a Credit Bureau. China and Korea have gone in different directions. Public Credit Registries play the role of credit information sharing in China, while Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus coexist in Korea. The results suggest an important relationship between the development of financial markets and credit information systems. The lower the income level and the heavier the government's hand in financial markets, the greater the need for Public Credit Registries; whereas, financial liberalisation and rising incomes encourage Credit Bureaus.     

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.     

The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?

The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of risk sharing between countries.

实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系——基于预期的视角

通过考虑居民预期行为的作用，实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系是一个附带预期的渐进调整过程。在利用东亚9个主要经济体的数据对该关系进行研究后发现：（1）东亚各国居民之间的消费风险分担程度较低，但是从2000年之后，居民消费风险分担程度在逐渐提高；（2）实际汇率变动基本上没有平滑东亚各国（地区）居民的消费变动；（3）持有静态预期行为的居民朝向长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较小，并且该调整速度较慢，同时持有理性预期行为的居民、持有适应性预期行为的居民背离长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较大，并且该调整速度较快，这是造成非完全消费风险分担均衡的重要原因。     

Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies

A decade has passed since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) in 1997, and attention is drawn to the output performance of the crisis-affected economies in East Asia. Using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, this paper examines the growth volatility of GDP, its components and the stock market of five East Asia economies of Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Empirical evidences based on quarterly data show that output volatility for both Singapore and South Korea has increased after the AFC. For the GDP components, trade is a major factor in lowering GDP volatility in Chinese Taipei. The Hong Kong SAR economy has experienced an increase/decrease in the volatility of investment/private consumption. Among the five East Asia economies, government intervention is obvious in Singapore. The stock markets in both Hong Kong SAR and Chinese Taipei showed stronger ability in absorbing shocks.     

The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan

This paper examines the effects of North Korean threats, as measured by the proprietary North Korean Threat Index (NKTI), on financial markets in South Korea and Japan. We examine the effects of the threats on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and overnight interest rates. We consider causality in mean and variance tests to determine any link between the NKTI and financial variables. The causality-in-mean test results indicate the presence of a causal link running from North Korean threats to stock returns and exchange rate returns in both countries, but no significant link to the overnight interest rate in either country. The causality-in-variance test results indicate no significant impact emanating from North Korean threats. Integrating the North Korean economy into the global economy stands to eliminate these threats and thus to contribute to regional financial stability.     

International Risk Sharing and Government Moral Hazard

This paper analyzes incentive problems caused by international risk sharing. They arise because international risk sharing contributes to the insurance of domestic consumption and thus lowers governments’ incentives to increase output. We show that the resulting distortions can lead to substantial efficiency losses. Complete risk sharing is, therefore, undesirable and the optimal degree of risk sharing may be low. Furthermore, we show that households’ risk sharing decisions are socially inefficient and are effectively maximizing government moral hazard. As a result, financial innovation and integration may reduce welfare by increasing households’ risk sharing opportunities.

International financial integration and risk sharing among countries: A production-based approach

This paper develops a production-based model for analyzing a role of asset trade in pooling risks among countries and provides new evidence for the international consumption-output puzzle and risk sharing among countries. Efficient risk sharing rules among countries are the same as the conditions for full financial integration. Input prices and interest rates as well as technology shocks are found to be the driving variables for cross-country output co-movements. The international correlation puzzle reflects an inability to account for production risk sharing among countries in previous studies. The degree of international risk sharing is substantial relative to earlier estimates, which is largely realized from pooling production risks rather than consumption risks among countries.     

Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea

This paper investigates the effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea via structural VARs. The results show that both foreign and domestic policy uncertainty shocks exert negative and significant impacts on South Korea. Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks are found to be more dominant than domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks in influencing the Korean output. The results also indicate that economic policy uncertainty that originates from foreign countries is a significant source of disturbance to the Korean economy, but domestic policy uncertainty plays a rather limited role in explaining Korean business fluctuations.     

International capital mobility: regional versus global perspective

This paper examines the role of regional versus global savings in financing domestic investment to shed light on the role of financial globalization and regionalism in capital markets. Regression results based on six regions with 141 countries reveal that although the role of foreign (global or regional) saving has increased over time, there are regional differences: domestic saving is the major source of investment financing in North America with an increasing role of regional and global savings over time, while regional saving is the main source in Europe. Global saving has been the main source of investment financing in other regions where domestic and regional financial markets are not well developed. However, the role of regional saving has significantly increased in recent years in the Asia-Pacific and in Latin America. Regionalism such as financial and monetary cooperation is likely to have increased the role of regional saving.     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

解决中小企业融资难的国际经验与对策

中小企业融资难是经济发展过程中的一个瓶颈,我国现在处于经济转型升级的发展阶段,中小企业为我国经济的发展带来了动力,提高我国经济发展的质量,有利于我国经济的持续、健康发展,但是中小企业的发展却面临着种种困难,导致我国中小企业陷入发展困境。本文借鉴美国、日本、韩国和德国等发达国家的经验,分析了这些国家在发展中小企业过程的先进经验和对策,特别是有些发达国家和发展中国家的发展情况,与我国既有类似又有差异的特征,本文进一步地结合我国中小企业的发展现状和困难,认为成立政策性金融机构、完善信用担保机制、建立民间金融机构和鼓励资本市场优势等经验都非常有借鉴意义,可以显著的提高我国中小企业的发展动力,解决中小企业融资难的困境。     

Reconsidering Consumption Risk Sharing among OECD Countries: Some Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration

In this paper we provide a characterization of international consumption risk sharing among a sample of OECD countries based on panel cointegration and error-correction techniques. Our results indicate that around 30% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared in the short run. In the long run, however, only about 10% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared internationally. In addition, we find that countries characterized by relatively high foreign asset and liability positions are less exposed to shocks. Moreover, the time it takes until idiosyncratic shocks exert their full impact on consumption crucially depends on the foreign asset and liability position.

Revisiting South Korea's Import Demand Behavior: A Cointegration Analysis*

Using cointegration techniques, the present study re‐examines the long‐run relationships of South Korea's aggregate import demand behavior. The present study considers four domestic activity variables; namely, gross domestic product, gross domestic product minus exports, national cash flow and final expenditure components for aggregate import demand in South Korea. The sample period covers quarterly data from 1970 to 2002. The present study provides empirical evidence of a cointegrating relation in the South Korea's import demand in which it is significant to South Korea's trade policy implication, particularly to improve external balances.     

Corporate Restructuring and Leveraged Buyouts in the Asia Pacific 1980–2010

Leveraged buyout markets in the Asia Pacific have grown substantially since the 1980s and now play an important role in the market for corporate control. This paper undertakes an international comparative analysis of the emergence and growth of leveraged buyout firms in the Asia Pacific and their role in corporate restructuring, with a focus on Australia, Japan and South Korea. Three distinct periods in the development of these markets are identified. The paper highlights the importance of state involvement and changes in domestic economic policy around financial crises, where governments created new rules to facilitate buyouts as an organisational restructuring solution to distressed companies.     

东亚金融一体化的动态及其收益

近年来，东亚一系列区域金融合作引起了学术界对地区金融一体化现状和收益的极大兴趣。文章基于价格和数量的测度考察了东亚地区金融一体化的程度：抛补利差和股权溢价的β收敛结果表明，危机之前东亚金融市场的全球和区域一体化并行，但在近几年，区域一体化趋势更强劲，超过了全球一体化；金融引力模型的结果表明，东亚主要的跨境金融投资者的区域内金融资产持有量比金融引力模型预测的水平更大。此外，面板回归确定了较高的金融一体化作为更广泛的金融发展的关键组成部分，会显著降低东亚国家对发达国家的经常账户失衡，因此，区域层面的金融一体化可以作为加强东亚国家的增长来源和提高经济弹性的重要政策路径。     

广西地方金融机构贷款信用风险及防范

地方金融对解决当前县域金融相对萎缩和中小企业融资困难、促进金融与经济协调发展方面具有深远的意义,但是其信用风险已成为当前影响金融安全、制约经济发展、危及社会稳定的一个全局性、普遍性的大问题。本文结合广西地方金融机构具体情况对其贷款信用风险进行分析,提出防范和减少地方金融机构贷款信用风险的方法。     

我国商业银行金融创新新途径:结构性理财——动因、问题及对策

近年,商业银行从传统以信贷利息为主要收入来源格局逐渐转为非利息收入加快增长态势。结构性理财产品发展迅速,成为理财产品发行的主导产品。结构性理财产品如结构性存款能改善银行负债状况,对于利率风险和信用风险等有自身化解能力。对商业银行的收入构成、风险控制有其独特作用。本文将结构性理财和非结构性理财进行了比较,对典型的结构性理财产品运作模式作了图解分析。最近,由于零收益率产品市场反映强烈,银行迫切需要在投资者教育和自身设计能力方面加大力气。