OPTIMAL DIVIDEND PAYMENTS WHEN CASH RESERVES FOLLOW A JUMP‐DIFFUSION PROCESS

We consider a model in which a firm faces two types of liquidity risks: a Brownian risk and a Poisson risk. The firm chooses a dividend policy to maximize shareholder value. We characterize the optimal firm value and we show that the optimal dividend policy is a barrier strategy: the firm keeps cash inside when the cash reserves level is less than a critical threshold and pays cash in excess of this threshold. We also analyze the problem of insurance against the Poisson risk. We find that it is optimal for the firm to buy full insurance when its cash reserves are above a critical threshold and not to insure otherwise.     

浅析企业资本结构和剩余股利政策的选择

股利分配是指公司制企业向股东分派利润,是企业利润分派的一部分,换一个角度也就是企业的内部筹资决策,所以股利决策并非一项独立的财务管理内容。对于企业筹资来讲,最经济的筹资方式就是利用留存收益。在保持目标资本结构的前提下,尽可能利用留存收益来满足投资所需要的权益资本,这将有助于企业选择资本成本最低的筹资方式,从而实现企业价值最大化的目标。     

Controlling Risk Exposure and Dividends Payout Schemes:Insurance Company Example

The paper represents a model for financial valuation of a firm which has control of the dividend payment stream and its risk as well as potential profit by choosing different business activities among those available to it. This model extends the classical Miller–Modigliani theory of firm valuation to the situation of controllable business activities in a stochastic environment. We associate the value of the company with the expected present value of the net dividend distributions (under the optimal policy). The example we consider is a large corporation, such as an insurance company, whose liquid assets in the absence of control fluctuate as a Brownian motion with a constant positive drift and a constant diffusion coefficient. We interpret the diffusion coefficient as risk exposure, and drift is understood as potential profit. At each moment of time there is an option to reduce risk exposure while simultaneously reducing the potential profit—for example, by using proportional reinsurance with another carrier for an insurance company. Management of a company controls the dividends paid out to the shareholders, and the objective is to find a policy that maximizes the expected total discounted dividends paid out until the time of bankruptcy. Two cases are considered: one in which the rate of dividend payout is bounded by some positive constant M, and one in which there is no restriction on the rate of dividend payout. We use recently developed techniques of mathematical finance to obtain an easy understandable closed form solution. We show that there are two levels u₀ and u₁ with u₀≤u₁. As a function of currently available reserve, the risk exposure monotonically increases on (0,u₀) from 0 to the maximum possible. When the reserve exceeds u₁ the dividends are paid at the maximal rate in the first case and in the second case every excess above u₁ is distributed as dividend. We also show that for M small enough u₀=u₁ and the optimal risk exposure is always less than the maximal.     

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION WITH JUMPS AND UNOBSERVABLE INTENSITY PROCESS

We consider a financial market with one bond and one stock. The dynamics of the stock price process allow jumps which occur according to a Markov-modulated Poisson process. We assume that there is an investor who is only able to observe the stock price process and not the driving Markov chain. The investor's aim is to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth. Using a classical result from filter theory it is possible to reduce this problem with partial observation to one with complete observation. With the help of a generalized Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation where we replace the derivative by Clarke's generalized gradient, we identify an optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, we discuss some special cases of this model and prove several properties of the optimal portfolio strategy. In particular, we derive bounds and discuss the influence of uncertainty on the optimal portfolio strategy.     

终极产权、控制权结构和股利政策

以2004—2007年超过4500家上市公司为研究样本,基于终极产权的视角剖析了终极控制人及其控制权结构对股利政策的影响。实证结果表明,终极产权性质及其对应的控制权结构是目前影响我国上市公司股利政策制定的主要因素,尤其是终极控制人的投票权和现金流量权比例,对股利支付的可能性和水平均有显著正向影响。     

VMI模式下信息共享对违约风险的防范和控制

供应商管理库存（Vender Managed Inventory,VMI）是21世纪前沿的供应链管理模式,VMI对供应链的新形式供应的形成和发展都产生了影响。但由于我国信息化起步晚,使得很多企业在实施VMI模式时仍存在不同程度的风险。为了实现对VMI违约风险防范和控制的有效性,供应链上的各个企业越来越注重供应链成员之间的协调关系,而这就需要以供应链上各个节点的成员企业进行高质量的信息传递和及时完整的信息共享为基础来建立和完善整个VMI系统。研究供应商实施VMI的过程中所面临的违约风险,重点分析VMI模式下信息共享对违约风险防范控制作用,可有效地实现信息共享以降低VMI模式下的违约风险。     

基于股权结构的家族控制与现金股利政策

影响上市公司现金股利政策的因素很多,家族上市公司普遍存在终极控制人,金字塔式的股权结构使其拥有的现金流权与控制权相分离,而且存在从自身利益最大化出发制定现金股利政策的倾向。本文在回顾前人研究文献的基础上进行了相关的理论分析,并选取了2004-2008年1411家A股家族上市公司作为研究样本,分别采用Logistic回归模型和多元线性回归模型,分析终极控制人特征对现金股利分配倾向和分配力度的影响,同时还分析了股权分置改革对所研究内容的影响。     

DEFAULT RISK AND DIVERSIFICATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS

Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of "diversifiable default risk." The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999) . We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.     

股利政策信息结构与股价行为研究

通过构建股利政策信息结构和时空两维股利信息模型,研究中国上市公司不同股利政策的信息结构、信息环境及其对波动性、市场深度和流动性等股价行为的影响。研究发现现金股利政策公告前,没有发现显著的信息性交易行为;股票股利政策公告前后,市场信息结构没有发生显著的变化;不分配利润的企业在公告前,出现了显著的由信息引起的交易行为;公司发布股利政策不仅能够传递公司价值的信息,而且公司价值信息的传递还与市场所处的信息环境密切相关,不同的信息环境、信息结构影响了信息作用于市场变量的变化路径。     

基于投资者保护的股利支付决策迎合效应研究

在投资者保护的分析框架下,借鉴迎合理论的基本思想,本文采用1998-2010年所有沪深A股的年度分配方案,在控制自由现金流、成长性、公司规模、盈利性和资产负债率的条件下,检验了股利溢价对现金股利支付决策的影响。研究结果表明投资者给予的现金股利溢价越高,公司发放股利的可能性越小;在法治水平较差的地区,迎合理论的印证能力更强,说明法治水平越低,利益输送越强。     

试论上市公司适度的股利政策

股利政策是股份制公司确定股利及与股利有关事项所采取的方针和政策。它既影响公司的市场价值,关系到公司股东的经济利益,又影响公司的外部筹资能力与积累能力以及未来发展。公司在制订股利政策时应兼顾公司未来的发展对资金的需要和股东对本期收益的要求,施以适度的股利政策则有利于公司股权结构的稳定,并在公司面临外部接管威胁时提供有效的防御屏障,以利于公司经营的稳定持续发展,实现价值最大化。     

论企业应收账款的风险及防范

在市场经济中,赊销是企业进行促销的重要手段,它给企业带来效益,而产生的应收账款也给企业带来了风险,将直接影响企业营运资金的周转和经济效益。在分析应收账款风险产生原因的基础上,就防范、控制应收账款风险,提高资金使用效率提出了对策。     

股利政策的股东财富效应:来自中国股市的经验证据

Based on the special separated equity management structure of the listed companies in China and using a sample of the listed companies with distributed dividend in 2003 and 2004, this paper tests the shareholder wealth effects of dividend policy in Chinese separated equity market. Results show that shareholders of non-circulating stock get a high return rate by cash dividends, and circulating shareholders obtain a high short-term return rate by stock dividends. Translated from Nankai Guanli Pinglun 南开管理评论 (Nankai Business Review), 2006, 9(2): 4–10     

On Models of Default Risk

We first discuss some mathematical tools used to compute the intensity of a single jump process, in its canonical filtration. In the second part, we try to clarify the meaning of default and the links between the default time, the asset's filtration, and the intensity of the default time. We finally discuss some examples.