浅析转型中的中国经济

从中国目前的经济成就和问题谈起,运用包容性增长和科学发展观的理念和方法来对中国经济发展转型进行考察,并得出与保障中国经济平稳、快速发展相配套的必要措施。     

世界股市低迷及其对我国的影响

世界股市全面退潮2000—2001年，持续走强多年的世界股市大起大落。1999年，全球上市公司总市值超过全球总产值；2000年上半年，各主要股市纷纷攀上历史最高峰，但从下半年开始便急转直下，至今没有根本改观。股市退潮在世界最大资本市场———美国资本市场表现得极为充分。美股牛市几乎纵贯整个90年代，2000年第一季度登峰造极，三大指数的最高纪录都是那时创造的：2000年1月14日，道-琼斯30种工业股票平均价格指数为11722.98点；2000年3月10日，纳斯达克指数为5048.62点；2000年3月24日，标准-普尔500种股票综合指数为1527.46点。2000年4…     

Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective

Expenditure reductions played a key role in many small open economies during fiscal consolidation, with large declines in public investment. This led to a reduction in public capital stock and affected the competitiveness of these economies. After the sovereign debt crisis, the governments that consider increasing investment to replenish the public capital stock have limited fiscal space and have to avoid external imbalances. We show that using budget-neutral investment spending can generate long-term benefits of higher public capital stock while at the same time limiting negative consequences for the public finances and the trade balance. The best way of financing government investment, which preserves fiscal and trade balances, and increases welfare, is by reducing other government spending. The second-best is financing investment with value-added tax. Financing with debt worsens fiscal and trade balances, while using distortionary labour taxes reduces labour supply, increases wage costs and worsens the trade deficit in the short run.     

Structural transformation and its relevance for economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

In this paper, we analyze the role of structural transformation in view of the remarkable growth performance of Sub‐Saharan African countries since the late 1990s. Our analysis covers 41 African countries over the period 1980 to 2014 and accounts for structural transformation by employing the analytical frameworks of (1) growth decomposition and (2) growth regression. Even though the low‐productive agricultural sector continues to employ most of the African workforce, our results reveal that structural transformation has taken place and that it has contributed significantly to African growth in the period 1980‐2014.     

Structural transformation and the oil price

What part of the high oil price can be explained by structural transformation in the developing world? Will continued structural transformation in these countries result in a permanently higher oil price? To address these issues I identify an inverted-U shaped relationship in the data between aggregate oil intensity and the extent of structural transformation: countries in the middle stages of transition spend the highest fraction of their income on oil. I construct and calibrate a multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium growth model that accounts for this fact by generating an endogenously falling aggregate elasticity of substitution between oil and non-oil inputs. The model is used to measure and isolate the impact of changing sectoral composition in the developing world on global oil demand and the oil price in the OECD. I find that structural transformation in non-OECD countries accounts for up to 53% of the oil price increase in the OECD between 1970 and 2010. However, the impact of structural transformation is temporary. Continued structural transformation induces falling oil intensity and an easing of the upward pressure on the oil price. Since a standard one-sector growth model misses this non-linearity, to understand the impact of growth on the oil price, it is necessary to take a more disaggregated view than is standard in macroeconomics.     

The euro: Major policy implications for Europe and the global economy

The paper examines the potential of the euro as an international currency. Owing to a large home base the long‐run potential is substantial. Much depends on whether the European Central Bank will be able to gain the reputation of a tough authority that issues a stable currency. Based on a comparison with the concepts of monetary targeting and inflation targeting, it is argued that the ECB's policy strategy is inferior as regards providing guidance to inflation expectations. The paper also discusses exchange rate policy and concludes that it is unlikely that Europe will join a new international exchange rate system.     

调整、孕育、成长、双赢--论香港经济转型与两地经济关系

面临新一轮转型的历史性转折香港回归后，以应对亚洲金融危机的冲击为契机，开始了经济结构的新一轮转型。1998年亚洲金融危机暴露出香港经济存在的结构性缺陷，很容易受国际经济和金融波动的冲击。进入21世纪初期，香港发展将面临几个方面的巨大挑战：第一，从国际国内分工关系来看，新加坡、台湾等周边经济体都与香港形成了较强的竞争态势，内地经济的崛起以及上海等大城市经济的发展和开放程度日益增大，将在对外贸易、航运物流、国际金融和商业等香港传统优势领域与香港形成既合作又竞争的关系。第二，从产业发展来看，香港原有的劳动密…     

The industrial implications of an optimal reflationary mix for the British economy

This paper derives an optimal reflationary mix for the next decade and comments on the industrial implications of this policy. The discussion is based on simulations of the multisectoral dynamic model of the UK economy developed by members of the Cambridge Growth Project. The results suggest that the concentration on macroeconomic policy alone may be misguided and that instruments which attack the roots of Britain's industrial problems should receive more attention. The paper also demonstrates that the optimal control procedure is a reliable tool for steering an economy towards a desired target trajectory and that this is feasible for very large econometric models.     

Chinese economy in the new era

The “new era”, a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States.     

Size,trend, and policy implications of the underground economy

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues.     

政府干预经济及其在市场经济中角色的确立

不能以"守夜人"来佐证政府干预经济的不合理性;政府干预并非完全基于市场失灵;好政府干预与坏政府干预是不同的;政府干预与市场调节不能完全替代;政府在经济中的角色岂止是干预;当代,政府不仅是宏观经济的调控者,而且是公共产品和公共服务的提供者,国家竞争力的培育者,市场秩序的维护者和社会保障体系的建设者;要处理好市场配置资源与政府行为的关系.     

Towards a cashless economy: Economic and socio-political implications

We construct a simple general equilibrium model to demonstrate how eliminating cash can lead to a misallocation of resources in a naturally segmented economy with observed (official) and non-observed (informal) sectors. The source of inefficiency mirrors the standard arguments explaining why money is essential: a promise backed by a good produced in one sector can not be used in another and so absence of a reliable fiat money reduces the gains from trade. We also point to several additional unintended consequences of cash elimination.     

Macroeconomic spillover effects of the Chinese economy

The slowdown of economy and widening of domestic imbalances in China bothers economists and politicians across the globe. We estimate the influence of a negative output shock in China on a number of different economies. We concentrate on China's neighboring countries. We compare the results from the Global VAR model and from the Bayesian VAR models. Also using Bayesian model averaging we search for determinants of Chinese spillovers for the global economy. We find that spillovers are stronger to economies with less flexible exchange rates, a higher share of manufacturing in gross value added and to economies which are larger.     

中国网络经济发展水平测度

目前,世界各国都在大力发展互联网和互联网经济。发展网络经济首先应明确发展的目标,把握当前的发展状况以及同发展目标的差距,而这些都应基于对网络经济定量的测度和规范的横向比较。本文拟对我国网络经济的发展状况作初步的定量测度,并与美国网络经济发展状况进行比较。一、网络经济测度中存在的理论问题1测度标准和参照体系从整体上讲,网络经济刚刚萌芽,远未成熟,即使网络经济的领头羊---美国也难以准确预测网络经济发展的终极形式和程度。因此,对网络经济的测度缺乏绝对的标准,只有相对的标准。选择美国的指标和数据作为相对的测度标准和对照体系,我认为是合理的。     

生态经济与相关范畴

直在审视和反思现实社会中的问题。仁者见仁，智者见智，众说纷纭，研究结论也大相径庭，但居主导地位的研究结论是：片面追求经济增长必然导致生态环境的崩溃，单纯追求生态目标也处理不了社会经济发展的诸多问题，只有确保自然——经济——社会复合系统持续、稳定、健康运作，才有可能同时实现这两个目标，从而实现人类社会的可持续发展。1987年，世界环境与发展委员会发表的《我们共同的未来》报告中，将可持续发展定义为“既满足当代人的需求又不危及满足后代人需求的发展”。这个概念最为重要之处是将代内公平和代际公平当做人类发展的…     

中国经济在改革发展中呈现效率驱动型特征——二论对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的理论解释

现有文献表明，大多数学者认为改革以来中国经济快速增长属于要素投入驱动型增长．不可能持续。对此，本文在以前结构转换研究的基础上，指出通常使用的索洛增长因素核算方程中隐含的效率提高类型与实际不符，由此可导致严重低估实际的综合效率提高；而由Klenowand Rodriguez—Clare（1997）发展的核算方法才是封中国经济增长因素进行分解的正确方法。然後对以此方法对中国经济增长因素分解测算的结果进行了详细分析，据此得出了三个基本结论：第一、改革以来中国经济实现了效率提高型快速增长，综合效率提高作出了主要贡献，要素投入也有一定的贡献，但比重较小；第二、改革以来中国经济的增长模式不同于改革前，後者的特征被再次证明主要是依靠要素投入；第三、改革以来中国经济的综合效率提高，主要来源于二元结构转换效应和经济体制转轨效应，教育和科研开发的贡献属于成长中的因素。所以，也不同于发达市场经济的常规增长方式。这些就是中国式综合效率提高驱动型经济增长的特征。     

Restructuring for shareholder value and its implications for labour

This paper provides an accounting analysis of the implicationsfor labour of restructuring for shareholder value. It presentsargument and evidence from the UK which suggests that activity-specificlimits on cost recovery constrain returns on capital. Theseconstraints encourage restructuring which aims to improve returnson capital through the reduction of labour costs. If labourloses directly, longer-term outcomes are more complex, as someworkers who retain jobs may gain, and much depends on the macrocontext. Overall, in the context of present-day capitalism,serial restructuring is likely to be a negative process forlabour that generates transitory benefits for capital.     

Entrepreneurial competition and its impact on the aggregate economy

This paper models entrepreneurship as the entrepreneur’s information processing activity in order to predict changes in demand and reallocate resources. The results show that allocative efficiency—and therefore aggregate productivity—increases through intensified competition by entrepreneurs grasping at opportunities. This fierce competition leads to price reductions that result in the improvement of measured aggregate productivity. The price reduction also forces relatively less able entrepreneurs to become workers. As resources are then dealt with only by relatively talented entrepreneurs, this selection effect also increases aggregate productivity. The paper also discusses how the selection effect influences the distribution of firm size.      

A Model of Structural Change and Openness: Applications to the Argentine economy

This paper describes a dynamic, multisectoral model of a less developed economy in which investment and income distribution policies influence structural change and the pattern of trade. That is, the model considers a Keynesian 'socialised investment' function and distributional policies that, by their effect on demand, could be also described as Keynesian. The model is used to analyse the effects of different policy regimes in the Argentine economy. In an environment characterised by enduring stagnation, investment policies aimed at increasing the degree of economic autonomy and self-sufficiency do not succeed in significantly changing output and trade patterns, and in reducing the degree of openness of the economy. From a long term perspective, however, stagnation is not necessarily a permanent condition. A new environment of higher growth could evolve from the consolidation of a new technological paradigm and the emergence of new socioeconomic norms and mechanisms. In an environment of lower uncertainty and higher efficacy of the investment, model simulation shows that investment policy is quite successful in augmenting the degree of autonomy and self-sufficiency of the economy. Also, income redistribution has a positive impact on income and welfare growth.