Does Country Risk Promote the Informal Economy? A Cross-National Panel Data Estimation

This article investigates whether country risk plays an important role in determining the size of the informal economy. Using annualized panel data for a sample of 131 countries and regions covering 1999–2007, and controlling for a set of control variables, we find that country risk is a robust and significant determinant of the informal economy: a 1% increase in the country risk rating (decrease in the country risk) causes a 0.1% fall in the informal economy, and political risk has the largest effect, followed by economic risk. Moreover, the estimation results provide little evidence in support of an inverted-U relationship between urbanization and the share of the informal sector, which shed new light on the urbanization-the informal economy nexus.     

我国上市公司债务结构对业绩影响的实证研究

从公开债务（即公共债务）和非公开债务（即私人债务）的角度,分别研究了上市公司的公共债务资产比例,私人债务资产比例以及资产负债率对公司业绩的影响,发现公共债务在公司治理方面起到了显著的积极作用,而私人债务却由于其对经理人的软约束,并不利于公司整体业绩的提高和长远的发展。     

Indonesia's Debt-for-Development Swaps: Past,Present, and Future

This article systematically reviews recent debt-for-development swaps in Indonesia, the only debtor country where the number of such swaps warrants their being considered as a deliberate government debt-relief policy and development finance strategy. We show that the 11 swaps Indonesia has signed with its bilateral creditors since 2002 have performed rather erratically across four criteria: an increase in resources at the debtor country or government budget level or both; an increase in resources for intended sector purposes; whether, taken together, these swaps ease debt burdens; and the extent of their alignment with government policy and systems. We find little evidence of learning on the Indonesian side. We believe that Indonesia can take a more proactive stance in negotiating the economic terms underlying its debt swaps, and we suggest concrete ways for it to do so.     

Sub-Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

The study investigated public debt sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource-rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed.     

发达国家经济“脱虚向实”发展的战略措施研究

国际金融危机对世界经济造成强烈冲击。为应对危机,欧、美、日等发达国家将发展从虚拟经济转向实体经济,大力扶持实体经济的发展。本文对美国、日本、欧盟在这一调整过程中所提出的国家发展战略进行了总结研究。     

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open economy models. The model is estimated for nine euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. We find that the general specification of our model improves the fit of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve considerably compared to the closed economy specification. The estimates of the structural parameters of the model suggest strong heterogeneity in the degree of price rigidity across euro area counties. Furthermore, we find the degree of price rigidity to be systematically lower in the open economy specification than in the closed economy specification and also lower than in the general specification of our model.

财政压力、支出结构与公共服务质量--基于中国229个地级市面板数据的实证分析

提供优质高效的公共服务以满足辖区居民美好生活需要,是各级地方政府的重要职责之一。财税体制改革给地方政府带来的财政压力,会对其公共服务供给行为产生影响。在测度中国229个地级市公共服务质量与财政压力的基础上,构建系统GMM模型,实证分析地方财政压力对公共服务质量的影响。结果发现:地方财政压力对公共服务质量产生了非线性影响,当地方政府承压超过一定限度时,财政压力将显著降低辖区公共服务质量;实证结果因地区、城市规模不同而呈现异质性;不同种类公共服务间的质量差异,源于财政压力环境下地方政府调整财政支出结构的行为。为此,应将财政压力控制在适度范围内,优化财政支出结构,努力实现地区间公共服务质量相对均衡。     

非市场经济国家地位与对华反倾销

改革开放20多年,我国已经成功地从计划经济转向市场经济.但在国际反倾销中,什么是市场经济国家与非市场经济国家,并没有统一的客观标准.一些国家基于经济和政治利益,把我国视为"非市场经济国家",对我国实行不公平、不合理的贸易待遇和不平等的反倾销规则.这在过去,已经使我国对外贸易遭受了很大损失,在将来一段时间内还会进一步严重影响我国的对外贸易的发展.我国政府和企业必须采取积极的应对措施.     

Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework

We argue that the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF) of the World Bank and IMF is centered on the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) to suit the aid allocation mechanism of the International Development Association (IDA), but fails to deal effectively with the economic vulnerability of low-income countries. Instead, we propose a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework (CDSF), which identifies the sources of vulnerability and compensates for exogenous shock and trend factors. Without giving rise to significant moral hazard implications, the CDSF is thus suitable to effectively shield low-income countries from the main external causes undermining their achievement of debt sustainability.     

发展混合所有制经济的必要性及路径研究

中共十八届三中全会多处提出要"积极发展混合所有制经济",这是很突出的理论创新。混合所有制经济无关所有制问题,是不同国家、不同所有制下的实现方式,混合经济融合了公有经济和非公经济的优势,实现了强强联合的显著效果,走混合经济之路既是历史发展的选择,也是经济发展模式转变的需要,应当把握混合经济有效合作的基础,按市场化要求,更好地发挥政府作用,按照科学合理的对策走混合经济发展之路。     

促进县域基本公共服务均等化

本文讨论了公共服务于县域经济发展的关系,我国县域基本公共服务发展的现状和问题,提出了促进我国县域基本公共服务均等化的对策性建议。县域基本公共服务均等化有利于县域经济社会的健康发展,县域基本公共服务的空间差异既有客观性原因也有制度性原因。应以人为本,以促进县域经济社会健康持续发展为目标,加快相关制度体制改革,促进人口迁移和要素流动,加快市场、区域一体化,快速推进县域基本公共服务的均等化。     

管理人员的综合测评方法研究

随着国债规模的扩大和国债政策市场化、长期化趋势的确立 ,优化国债融资成本的迫切性日益突出。针对我国国债市场的非市场化结构特征 ,我们提出以市场化为核心的优化国债市场结构和筹资成本的思路 ,并通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法探讨优化国债融资成本的较佳途径