Geographic disparities in rural land appreciation in a transforming economy: Chile, 1980 to 2007

This paper reports on a research effort to gather and analyze rural land value data during a period of unprecedented growth in Chilean agriculture. This information is important to understand the geographical distribution of gains associated with the transformation of the rural sector during a period of rapid development, trade liberalization and transition toward a predominant emphasis on export earnings in agriculture. A large set of data of rural land transactions for 1980, 1990, 1997 and 2007 were collected from a sample of land registry offices. Results show notable declines in the physical size of transactions, significant average annual rates of increase in real per-hectare values, and a small-parcel premium for rural land associated with non-farm land use. Overall real land values have increased faster than the average annual growth rates in the agricultural sector’s value added, suggesting that land owners have gained proportionately more than other claimants to sectoral income. Tests show significant geographic disparities in annual rates of land appreciation across regions and municipalities. Consistent with differential net gains due to integration into world markets and the geographic heterogeneity of suitability for different land uses, northern areas, with greater emphasis on export-oriented crops, have experienced the highest average rates of annual real per-hectare value growth, in the order of 7 percent, while southern areas, emphasizing traditional crops and pastures/livestock, have experienced growth rates of half that. Geographic disparities are also explained by proximity to urban population and income centers.     

土地整治促进区域经济协调发展的机制与路径——基于改进的存量—流量模型

土地是影响区域经济协调发展的重要因素之一,随着土地综合整治项目在全国范围内的开展,对于土地整治如何促进区域经济协调发展的探索势必成为一个新的研究领域,特别是十八届三中全会提出了建立城乡统一的建设用地市场,给城乡建设用地的整治带来了新的机遇和挑战。该文立足于统一的城乡建设用地市场,通过改进的土地市场存量——流量模型,研究了土地整治如何对经济发达地区和经济欠发达地区的土地市场产生影响,探索了土地整治促进区域经济可持续发展的作用机制,并详细阐述了土地整治促进区域经济协调发展的实现路径,得出了科学合理的土地整治可有效促进区域经济协调发展的结论。该文最后针对目前土地整治存在的问题,提出了4点建议,分别是:健全土地整治项目的规划机制、创新城乡建设用地增减挂钩制度、与产业结构升级的目标相融合以及积极保护未利用地。     

Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing commodity price risk in many industries. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The US lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2×4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead–lag relationships between the 3-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber, representative spot prices, and lumber futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Results suggest that at least for 2×4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Block Lumber lead both the spot price and futures price, suggesting that this private cash forward market provides some level of price discovery in the lumber markets.     

Costs and benefits of forest conservation: regional and local comparisons in Eastern Finland

In addition to environmental interests vs. timber production, debates on forest conservation have typically dealt with nationwide vs. local and regional interests. While most previous studies have focused on the nationwide perspective, this paper considers the benefits and costs of existing conservation areas from the regional and local point of view. The non-market benefits of conservation are measured by means of contingent valuation. Unlike most discrete-choice CV studies, we allow for zero willingness to pay. The results of our cost-benefit analysis suggest that the aggregate benefits of conservation clearly exceed the total opportunity costs when viewed from a regional (or nationwide) perspective, but at the local level costs exceed the benefits of conservation. Differences were also found in locally vs. regionally relevant benefits and costs.     

Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy

This article's focus is on the time adjustment paths of the exchange rate and prices in response to unanticipated monetary shocks. First, we expand the theoretical specification of the overshooting hypothesis by generalizing Dornbusch's model to include a third sector (i.e., agricultural prices). Second, we employ Johansen's cointegration test along with a vector error correction model to investigate whether agricultural prices overshoot in an open economy. The empirical results indicate that agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to innovations in the money supply, affecting relative prices in the short run, but strict long-run money neutrality does not hold.     

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40% higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, consistent with the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis and its predecessor, Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy‐intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock‐to‐use ratios and, to a lesser extent, ex‐change rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response. The added value of these results lies in that, when examined in tandem and against market fundamentals, they challenge the conclusions from uni‐dimensional approaches that often put disproportionate weight on an individual factor.     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Synergies or Trade-Offs in University Life Sciences Research

Major legislative, legal, and technological changes paved the way for a period of remarkable growth in the patenting of life science research by U.S. universities in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a multiple-output cost framework and two decades of panel data on ninety-six universities, this article examines whether economies of scope and/or scale are present in university production of three major life science research outputs: journal articles, patents, and doctorates. The results show strong evidence of economies of scale in life science research production with mixed evidence of economies of scope between articles and patents.     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

[目的]非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡,进而导致肉类价格大幅波动,不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。[方法]文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区,不含港澳台、西藏）,包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区(1)的区域异质性。[结果]（1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异,在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性;（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。[结论]非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性,亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局,加快形成区域协同发展格局;健全动物疫病防控体系,建立多方协同联动机制;完善市场风险预警调控机制,加快实现产需顺畅匹配,确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。     

当前我国农用地估价实践中亟待解决的问题

从当前农用地估价的实践出发,提出影响估价精度的六大问题,以期农用地估价实践者关注区域农用地地价水平平衡和农用地价与城镇地价在时间与空间的连续与衔接。     

A Regional Analysis of Productivity Change in Canadian Agriculture, with Special Reference to Energy Prices

By using a profit specification for the agricultural sector instead of the conventional value-added production formulation, this paper explains changes to regional productivity in Canada in terms of changes in output prices, material prices, energy prices, capital deepening and technical progress. The results indicate that ignoring variable input and output price increases will generally result in an overstatement of the rate of technical progress. Most notably, in the 1973-79 period, energy price increases caused a reduction in average labor productivity, though increased capital deepening and rising output prices offset price increases for energy and other materials .
C'est en subsliluant une spécification du gain pour le secleur agricole à la formulation classique de la valeur ajoutée de la production, que cette communication explique les changements regionaux de la productivité au Canada en fonction des changements du rendement el des prix des matériaux el de ľénergie, en plus des changements du rapport capital/main-ďoeuvre el du progrès technique. Les résultals indiquent que si on ne tenait aucun compte des augmentations variables des prix ďenlrée el de sortie. ľaccélération du progrès technique serait, en général, exagéré. Pendant les années 1973 à 1979 en particulier, les augmentations des prix de ľénergie onl donné lieu à une réduction de la productivité moyenne de la main-ďoeuvre. Néanmoins, ľaugmentation du rapport capital/main-ďoeuvre el les prix croissants du rendement onl compensé les hausses des prix de ľénergie el ďaulres matériaux .     

饲料价格波动对畜产品价格的时变冲击效应研究

目的 高饲料成本与低畜禽价格的双重挤压导致养殖户利润持续下滑,甚至亏损。研究饲料价格波动对畜产品价格的传导效应及影响程度,有助于为政府、养殖户提供调控策略,确保养殖户利润和产业持续健康发展。方法 文章基于2008年1月至2023年8月中国主要饲料和畜产品价格,运用时变参数向量自回归模型研究饲料与畜产品市场之间的价格波动传导响应机制和传递时效。结果 （1）饲料价格波动冲击并非畜产价格长期波动的主要原因,应对饲料价格波动时,猪肉市场和鸡肉市场的反应相似,羊肉市场和牛肉市场的反应相似;（2）饲料价格波动对猪肉价格存在显著的负向影响效应,玉米、豆粕价格每上涨1%,猪肉价格增长率分别约下降0.003%、0.006%,玉米价格波动冲击对鸡肉价格存在短期为负长期为正的反转效应;（3）饲料价格波动冲击对猪肉市场的影响持续10个月左右,对鸡肉、羊肉、牛肉市场影响持续15个月左右,除鸡肉市场外,玉米价格波动对畜产品市场的冲击作用较豆粕而言更为迅速。结论 基于此,提出鼓励养殖户使用风险管理工具;加强非常规原料替代力度、加强战略性采购;完善价格参数采集体系和采集标准,逐步建立价格保险机制等政策建议。     

Market and Cost Structure in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry: A Plant-Level Analysis

A resurgence of consolidation in the U.S. meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate. Issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns, and the effects on the agricultural sector (cattle producers) from market power. Here, plant level cost and revenue data for U.S. beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost-based model incorporating cattle- and output-market pricing behavior. The robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets, and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies.