收获人口红利 应对老龄化社会

我国面临着劳动力人口众多以及老龄化社会行将到来的双重压力。劳动力人口绝对量大,同时劳动力人口的比例也高,这就意味着目前我国的人口负担轻,正处于人口之窗开启的有利时机。在这个时期,如果能够充分收获人口红利,那么不仅可以缓解劳动力人口众多的压力,同时也就为行将到来的老龄化社会做好了准备     

面向老龄化的产业结构调整:逻辑与思路--以南京为例

人口老龄化是人口发展领域的基本现象,也是一项世界性课题,包括中国在内的世界主要国家大部分已经进入老龄化社会.南京人口老龄化程度虽然总体上优于全国平均水平,但是南京当前的人口年龄结构为老龄化问题的加速恶化埋下了伏笔.人口老龄化既可能从减少劳动力和资本供给、减少消费、减少创新投入等方面对产业结构调整产生消极影响,也可能从增加服务需求、理性消费、激励人力资本投资、降低碳排放等方面对产业结构调整产生积极影响.因此,面对这种“未富先老”的发展背景,应理性分析人口老龄化对于产业结构调整的双向影响,系统探索老龄化背景下产业结构调整的总体思路,特别是要积极扶持发展老龄产业、加强劳动替代性技术创新、以知识技术密集型产业替代劳动密集型产业、注重老年人力资源开发.     

广西经济增长中的人口红利效应研究

广西人口红利期与全国比较,具有开启时间晚、潜在人口红利理论值小、持续时间短的特征。虽然实证分析结果表明广西的人口年龄结构变化确实使经济增长收获了一定的人口红利,但是丰富的劳动力资源所面临的供求失衡问题在相当程度上弱化了经济增长中的人口红利效应。广西还剩下不到30年的人口年龄结构"黄金时期",为充分兑现人口红利,政府应采取积极的政策措施,努力将潜在的人口转变机遇转换为现实的经济增长和财富积累。     

论我国未来人口与可持续发展

本文对我国未来人口与可持续发展的预测研究表明:无论哪种假设方案,前50年人口总量都比较多,对资源环境的压力都要增加;后50年年龄结构进入\"负利\"阶段,人口抚养负担对经济社会发展将产生负面作用;中间40年老年人口数量巨大,老年人口问题最为突出。论文以静止人口模型指标值为标准,精确给出我国人口\"红利\"起止时间,未来人口\"负利\"发生时间,以及老年比偏低和偏高的时间,并对这些人口年龄结构特点进行了深入分析。研究指出,如果前50年维持中方案水平,后50年再将总和生育率逐渐升至更替水平,则劳动年龄人口数量减小幅度不大,总抚养比升高程度可以接受,老年比不至于过高,有利于形成12亿人左右的适度人口规模,因此是一个趋利避害的人口发展方向。未来人口发展存在许多安全隐患,如人口发展加重自然资源过度消耗、生态环境进一步恶化、生育水平长期超低、空巢老人规模过大、农村鳏夫大量增多、农民工过度流动等,都会导致群体安全问题。针对这些问题,论文建议要进一步加大保护资源环境的力度、大力建设节约型社会、高度重视人口安全问题,以及尽早研究制定新人口政策,以促进人口与经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展和可持续发展。     

Challenge Facing China＇s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era

I. Introduction As a result of the strictly implemented one-child policy, China has completed a demographic transition within approximately 20 years, a very short period of time when compared to most developed countries. As a continuation of the first stage of transition from high death rate, high birth rate and low growth rate to low death rate, high birth rate and high growth rate, which was completed in the 1950s, the second stage of transition from low death rate, high birth rate and high …     

China＇s Labor Transition and the Future of China＇s Rural Wages and Employment

This paper contributes to the assessment of China＇s rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one＇s province to destinations closer to home. The present paperfinds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China＇s rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China ＂s rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women （and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs）. Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China＇s growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm.     

劳动力市场的新趋势与养老保险制度的完善

自20世纪90年代末以来,随着经济体制改革的推进和社会的发展变迁,我国劳动力市场出现劳动参与率下降、灵活就业形式越来越普遍的现象,并且人口老龄化日益显现,未来劳动力供给可能减少,劳动力市场的这些新趋势将给养老保险制度带来挑战,本文拟对此进行分析,并在此基础上对养老保险制度的完善提出对策建议。     

劳动力成本上升与企业的发展道路选择

劳动力成本问题是当前企业不可忽视的一个问题,而劳动力成本的增加已经成为企业的一个重要的成本负担,企业如何应对劳动力成本的增加就成为一个值得研究的问题。文章主要从三个方面分析了劳动力成本上升的具体原因,及其给企业带来的影响,然后通过分离了劳动质量和资本质量的含体现技术进步的生产函数模型来分析企业应该如何应对劳动力成本上升的问题。     

中国“人口红利”及其获取对策

中国东、中、西部三大区域和各个省份的人口红利变动趋势有所不同,西部地区人口红利期较东、中部滞后,省与省之间呈现出东部老年赡养负担重,西部少儿抚养负担重的差异格局。应该抓住机遇采取促进就业、加强劳动力合理流动、加大人力资本积累、做实养老保险个人账户和适时推迟退休年龄等对策措施以获取人口红利。     

中国城镇人口年龄结构预测

近年来,由于计划生育政策的实施,我国加速步入了老龄化社会,人口老龄化的快速到来给我国养老保险体系带来了越来越大的挑战,科学准确的对我国城镇人口年龄结构进行预测,有利于及时调整养老保险体系以应对老龄化带来的冲击。本文基于离散灰色系统模型,分别对我国城镇劳动人口和老年人口进行预测,然后计算得到老年抚养比,并针对我国的老龄化现状对我国的养老保险体系的建立提供一些政策性的意见和建议。     

中国刘易斯拐点的异象、人口红利与经济增长

中国经济由二元模式向一元模式转变过程中必然会面临刘易斯拐点问题.文章对中国的刘易斯拐点异象给出了一个理论说明,解释了“民工荒”与农村大量剩余劳动力并存现象的一个重要原因是劳动生产率的人力资本差异.本文还指出中国三十多年来之所以能通过高投资驱动经济增长主要是得益于充裕的人口红利,近几年,“民工荒”使得从表面上看人口红利行将消失,但是实际上农村大量剩余劳动力是潜在的巨额人口红利,应最大限度地加以利用,本文提出了一系列有利于将潜在人口红利转化为现实人口红利的措施,并指出短期内在无法实现经济增长方式根本性转变的条件下,充分利用人口红利的重要意义.     

我国经济稳步发展的要素

从2000年至今,我国经济一直保持着高速增长态势,即便是2008年金融危机以来世界经济形势低迷,也未能阻挡我国经济快速发展的步伐。总结我国经济保持持续增长的发展要素,结合当前的内外部环境,分析未来促进我国经济稳步发展的关键措施。     

Changes in the Distribution of Household Income in Brazil: The Role of Male and Female Earnings

Annual survey data spanning three decades and a non-parametric technique for constructing counterfactual distributions are employed to analyze the relationship between earnings and the distribution of household income in Brazil. Results show that significant changes in the structure of female earnings reflecting rising wages and participation rates had limited equalizing consequences but considerable poverty-reducing effects. These developments counterbalanced poverty-increasing changes in the structure of male earnings. A stable macroeconomic environment was associated with a consistent but a limited fall in inequality and a strong decline in poverty mainly related to rising earnings among women at the lower end of the household income distribution.     

新疆劳动参与率实证研究

本文通过获取历年统计年鉴数据,对新疆和全国劳动参与率的比较得出以下结论：一是与全国劳动参与率相比,新疆地区劳动参与率明显偏低;二是全国劳动参与率处于下降趋势,新疆地区劳动参与率缓慢增加。在此基础上,对此产生的原因作了简要分析。除宏观经济因素外,还与新疆地区特有的文化思维观念有关：人们生活小富则安,缺少竞争观念,以及新疆地区推行特殊的计划生育政策,从而导致高幼儿抚养比。     

The effect of universal pre-kindergarten policy on female labor force participation—A synthetic control approach

This paper examines the effect of universal pre-kindergarten (pre-k) on the labor force participation of mothers with pre-k-aged children in Oklahoma and Georgia. I apply the synthetic control method (SCM) to Current Population Survey (CPS) data to identify the causal relationship between universal pre-k and female labor market outcomes. I find that the universal pre-k policy has a positive impact on the intensive margin of the labor supply of mothers with pre-k-aged children in Georgia, which provides full-day child care services for all pre-k programs. However, Oklahoma's universal pre-k policy has little effect on the labor outcomes of mothers with 4-year-old children. The empirical results also suggest that universal pre-k has heterogeneous impacts on subsamples stratified by education level, marital status, poverty status, and the age structure of children in the household.     

劳动力转移、技术诱导及其实现条件:477个样本

以水稻生产中两种劳动节约技术(品种技术和机械技术)组合为例,利用川渝两地477家农户的调查数据,运用probit模型分析劳动力转移对农户采纳劳动节约技术的诱导效应,同时论证了该效应的实现条件。结果表明:如果不考虑农业要素市场完善程度等实现条件的差异,劳动力转移对农户采纳劳动节约技术没形成诱导,反而产生了负效应。而按照实现条件的满足与否进行分组回归发现:在实现条件满足的前提下,劳动力转移对农户采纳节约劳动技术的诱导效应才得以实现。     

我国农业劳动力供求状况与粮食安全

目前我国农业劳动力的供给为18099万人,需求为17247万人,农业剩余劳动力为852万人,剩余比例为4.71%,可见,目前我国农业已基本无剩余劳动力。进一步调查发现,劳动力的这种供求状况对农业生产影响很大,对粮食安全构成了威胁,主要表现为耕地撂荒、弃粮从经、降低复种指数和粗放经营等。因此,人们对明天"谁来种地"的担忧并非杞人忧天。     

Disability Insurance Denial Rates and the Labor Force Participation of Older Men and Women in Canada

We examine the effect of denial rates from the Canada/Quebec Pension Plan (C/QPP) disability program on the labor force participation of older men and women in Canada. Our study uses data from a period in which there was a change in CPP disability adjudication requirements, which also varied by province, but no change in the QPP disability program requirements. This created variation in the CPP disability program’s denial rates. The estimates from our preferred specifications indicate that denial rates do not have the expected statistically significant negative effect on the participation decisions of older men or women. These findings may be the result of a change in the applicant pool for disability benefits.