“未富先老”与劳动力短缺

计划生育政策的成功执行和社会经济的快速发展,中国在经济发展尚处较低水平的情况下,实现了人口转变过程,过早地迎来了人口老龄化,劳动力供给出现短缺的端倪。“先老”导致的劳动力供给下降与“未富”带来的大量劳动力需求,将可能形成比较优势的真空。这种趋势对现有的经济增长方式以及相应的就业和社会保障政策提出严峻挑战。为应对劳动力短缺的局面,保持中国经济发展的可持续性,应未雨绸缪,包括最大化开发人口红利、加大人力资本积累力度、选择可持续的养老保障模式,清除劳动力流动障碍、转变经济增长方式等。     

East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends

Countries throughout the world are experiencing changes in their population age structure, but they are particularly rapid in East Asia. During the last part of the 20th Century the region benefited from an increased concentration of population in the working ages. Population aging is now the increasing rapidly with potentially adverse economic effects. The evidence presented here shows that population aging can lead to a second demographic dividend because population aging may lead to rapid capital accumulation. This appears to have occurred in East Asia because public support systems for the elderly are smaller and because family support systems are in decline.     

中国刘易斯拐点的异象、人口红利与经济增长

中国经济由二元模式向一元模式转变过程中必然会面临刘易斯拐点问题.文章对中国的刘易斯拐点异象给出了一个理论说明,解释了“民工荒”与农村大量剩余劳动力并存现象的一个重要原因是劳动生产率的人力资本差异.本文还指出中国三十多年来之所以能通过高投资驱动经济增长主要是得益于充裕的人口红利,近几年,“民工荒”使得从表面上看人口红利行将消失,但是实际上农村大量剩余劳动力是潜在的巨额人口红利,应最大限度地加以利用,本文提出了一系列有利于将潜在人口红利转化为现实人口红利的措施,并指出短期内在无法实现经济增长方式根本性转变的条件下,充分利用人口红利的重要意义.     

老龄化中国人口红利实现的可能性与途径探讨

本文首先简要回顾了有关老龄化社会的人口红利效应的相关研究。近而,利用抽样人口数据,本文预测了未来75年我国人口规模与结构的变化趋势,指出在未来的大部分年份里,从第一人口红利的角度看,人口结构很可能将对中国经济增长起负面作用;而解决未来养老问题并实现第二人口红利的关键是：从当前开始即在充分就业的前提下实现持续的、有效的资本积累。一个重要的、可行的资本积累方式就是建立积累制的养老金计划。     

人口红利贡献被高估了吗?——基于人力资本积累视角的研究

人口红利下降被认为是新常态下中国面临的重大挑战,然而劳动投入不仅包含劳动数量,还包含劳动质量,分别对应于人口红利与人力资本。由于在测量上忽视了高速城市化对人力资本积累的积极影响,在机制上忽视了人口红利和人力资本分布趋同的叠加影响,容易造成人口红利贡献高估且人口资本贡献低估。文章从人口迁移视角出发,参考拉姆齐无限期界模型建立人力资本积累方程,将城市化对人力资本积累的积极作用纳入分析,得出转换效应、迁移效应和共振效应,阐明人口红利和人力资本空间分布趋同的微观机制,得到检验人口红利和人力资本对经济增长贡献的一致性框架。以2013-2016年272个样本城市进行计量检验：固定效应回归分析和内生性检验表明人口红利和人力资本的增长弹性排序不确定,中介效应检验表明人力资本的增长贡献超过人口红利,分组检验进一步证实人力资本贡献超过人口红利,且存在相互叠加共同影响城市经济增长的共振效应。结论表明,若充分考虑城市化对人力资本的积极影响,则人口红利的贡献确实被高估,而人力资本的贡献被低估。由此得出政策建议,应持续推进城市化高质量发展,加速人力资本积累,构筑劳动质量替代劳动数量的机制,以更好地应对新常态下人口红利下降的负面冲击。     

后人口红利时代的经济增长

人口红利是指人口转变中的某一阶段出现充足供给劳动力和高储蓄率给经济带来的正面影响。人口红利之后将面临高老年人口比所导致的人口负债。本文在理论层面讨论人口转变与经济增长的关系,认为人口红利期劳动力增长和高储蓄率是经济增长的动力,人口红利期之后必须通过资本积累、技术进步和人力资源开发,才能保持可持续增长。研究了中国充分挖掘人口转变潜在贡献的现实困境,给出后人口红利时代的理性建议。     

人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证研究——基于湖南省面板数据的分析

利用湖南省各年统计年鉴的相关数据,分析了湖南省人口的转变情况,以及由此形成的人口红利期。通过引入相关的计量模型,实证分析了人口变动对储蓄的影响以及人口红利对经济增长的作用,并在面对人口老龄化这一严峻形势下,提出了如何充分发挥人口红利促进经济持续、稳定增长的政策建议。     

Retesting the Separability of China＇s Rural Households

This article retests the separability of China’s rural households in light of growing doubt about the sustainability of high economic growth in China.If a household’s production decisions are "separable "from the household’s consumption decisions,generally this suggests there is no surplus labor.Many scholars aver that China’s surplus rural labor has spurred rapid economic growth,but concerns have arisen as to whether China still has surplus labor available.We investigate this issue using rural household panel data from 1993 to 2009.The regression results confirm that households in rural China have progressed from being non-separable to separable.The estimation results for both the entire country and regions reject the separability hypothesis before 2004 but fail to reject the hypothesis after 2004(with the exception of the central region).These results suggest that China ’s surplus labor supply is dwindling,especially in the eastern and the western regions.The sustainability of China’s high economic growth is questionable in the absence of a large reservoir of surplus rural labor.     

China in Asia

China's surge to become the world's second largest economy and largest trading nation contributes greatly to Asia becoming the world's largest economic system. China is the nexus of intra-Asian trade and direct investment flows. China's rapid growth in the recent decade relied on a state-directed investment model, akin to the state-run Big Push growth model. As in most big push experiences, intermediate term success leads to economic stresses. China's leaders can no longer ignore obvious signs of rising malinvestment, corporate debts, environmental degradation, and social disparity, all amid an aging population and tightening resource constraints. China's economic slowdown also forces economic adjustment upon its neighbors, rendered more difficult by China's policy ambiguity and volatility. Sill, China can be a positive long term influence in Asia, especially as it carries its market reforms to completion.     

What＇s So Special about China＇s Producer Services？ An Input-output Analysis

In the present study, five stylized facts about China ＂s producer services are established through international, intersectoral and intertemporal comparisons based on input --output tables. First, the overall service input ratio is the lowest in all the sample economies. Second, most producer services are supplied by the traditional labor-intensive sectors. Third, manufacturing is the biggest user of producer services, and service industry is the second, while the opposite is true for most of the other sample economies. Fourth, unlike other economies, China ＂s ＂R＆D＂ is characterized more by consumer services than producer services. Fifth, China has fairly lower service input ratios in almost all the industries. The backward and forward linkages coefficients are both smaller for ＂real estate activities＂ and ＂finance and insurance. ＂＂ Policy reform should focus not only on specific producer services but also on reducing obstacles that are inhibiting the balanced development of diverse producer services that will help China to optimize its economic structure.     

Impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption — A case study of energy intake in China

Most existing studies of food demand focus on economic factors, such as income and price. Physical factors which determine human energy intake requirement, given economic conditions, such as gender and age structures of the population as well as occupation, are usually not incorporated. While this is appropriate in the situation of a continuous, stable development of demographic structure, it might lead to biased result if drastic and irregular demographic changes have taken place. This paper provides a case study of China of the impact of demographic dynamics on the change of physical requirement and energy intake demand. The unique population pyramid in China, resulted from the big famine in the early 1960s and then the “One Child” policy” starting from the 1980s, has led to the irregular evolution of age groups and the consequent changes in the proportion of the “big-eaters”. As a result, given food price and income, the very age structure of the population at the time affects the overall weighted energy intake level of the population significantly. Using household survey data ranging from year 1991 to 2009, the index of Adult Male Equivalent Scale (AMES) is constructed to reflect the varying per capita physical requirement resulted from the demographic dynamic over the years in China. The AMES index, together with food price and income, has been applied to the per capita energy intake model. The empirical results show that the AMES index has statically strong impact on per capita energy intake, and the inclusion of the AMES index into the model has improved the model fitness. This finding sheds light on a possible way for improvement in projecting China's food demand in the future by incorporating the country's changing demographic factors.     

中国“人口红利”及其获取对策

中国东、中、西部三大区域和各个省份的人口红利变动趋势有所不同,西部地区人口红利期较东、中部滞后,省与省之间呈现出东部老年赡养负担重,西部少儿抚养负担重的差异格局。应该抓住机遇采取促进就业、加强劳动力合理流动、加大人力资本积累、做实养老保险个人账户和适时推迟退休年龄等对策措施以获取人口红利。     

The caterpillar fungus boom on the Tibetan Plateau: Curse or blessing?

In the last two decades, the Tibetan regions of China have been experiencing a remarkable economic boom fueled by the caterpillar fungus, known in the West as the “Viagra of the Himalayas” or “Tibetan Gold.” This article examines the impacts of the caterpillar fungus boom on Tibetan pastoralists' current-day livelihood and the prospects of their future economic development. Our study is based on a household survey conducted in 2016 covering 58 villages across the Tibetan autonomous land area. Results show that the new stream of cash income from gathering and trading caterpillar fungus has had a strong short-term welfare-improving effect. Household consumption, healthcare spending, and religious charity have risen sharply with caterpillar fungus income. Unfortunately, the fungus boom has not brought about productive investment or human capital accumulation that is conducive to long-term growth. Rather, the resource windfall has created disincentives for school attendance, nonfarm labor participation, and productivity improvements in pastoralism. The resource boom-induced disinvestments, if persistent, will likely further limit the capabilities of rural Tibetans to compete in the urban labor market, reinforcing the emerging trend of socioeconomic marginalization. We contextualize these findings in terms of Tibetans' cultural and economic rationale, pointing out new directions for future research and policymaking.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

老龄化下人均经济增长率变动的实证分析

文章从曼昆、罗默和韦尔的总量生产函数出发,在经济增长模型中加入老龄化因素,据此分析了老龄化所致人口结构变化对于人均经济增长率变动的影响,并对所建构的模型进行了检验,结果表明自1978-2004年老龄化因素下的人均经济增长变动率一直为正,但增长呈现下降趋势.同时对其变动作出了预测分析,结果表明我国在2035年以前处于人均经济增长变动率为正的人口红利期,在2036-2055年则处于人口亏损期.针对分析结论,本文提出了充分利用人口红利期的政策建议和未来研究的方向.     

收获人口红利 应对老龄化社会

我国面临着劳动力人口众多以及老龄化社会行将到来的双重压力。劳动力人口绝对量大,同时劳动力人口的比例也高,这就意味着目前我国的人口负担轻,正处于人口之窗开启的有利时机。在这个时期,如果能够充分收获人口红利,那么不仅可以缓解劳动力人口众多的压力,同时也就为行将到来的老龄化社会做好了准备     

China＇s Economy in 2005： At a New Turning Point and Need to Fix Its Development Problems

I. High Growth, Higher Stakes China’s economy in 2005 experienced another year of surging growth, with its total GDP(based on recent revision) expanding at 9.9 percent to reach 18.23 tn yuan (US$2.26 tn).1 Growth in 2005 was slightly lower than the 10.1 percent in 2004; but it was nonetheless very high. Sustained high growth is accompanied by potential high risks, and it inevitably raises the issue of future sustainability of high growth. Although the Chinese economic policy-makers in 200…     

A theory of heterogeneous city growth

We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 city producing an intermediate “agricultural” good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 city producing an intermediate “industrial” good with capital, labor, and human capital. A type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience, at equilibrium, heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the “industrial” type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the “agricultural” type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two former growth rates. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the “agricultural” city decreases over time. This property allows us to recover the empirical fact that most non‐agricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time, as shown in empirical studies.     

The aging tax on potential growth in Asia

Population aging is becoming a prominent issue in Asia, especially for developing countries where demographic changes have asserted a downward pressure on the rate of growth. This paper refers to such potential unwanted effects as an “aging tax” and analytically examines them from a neoclassical perspective, using a Diamond-type overlapping generations model with endogenous retirement, survival rate, and old-age productivity. Based on this setup, negative impacts exist if too many old workers that are sufficiently unproductive choose to defer retirement under the aging pressure, which drains resources from future generations. Numerical simulations show that an aging tax can reduce the potential per capita growth rate (technology-adjusted) by up to 0.12 percentage points annually for some countries in Asia. Our results highlight that countries with sufficiently large labor shares (due to a high ratio of self-employment or a manual labor-centric production) and inadequate educational attainment are potentially the most sensitive and vulnerable to population aging.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.