人力资本对银行金融科技发展的影响

利用2013—2019年银行数据，通过文本挖掘法构建银行金融科技指数，运用固定效应模型，探究银行所在地人力资本对银行金融科技发展的影响。研究发现，人力资本有助于银行金融科技发展，人力资本水平越高，银行金融科技发展水平越高。机制分析表明人力资本通过直接与间接两条影响路径影响银行金融科技发展。首先，人力资本通过为银行提供服务对银行金融科技发展发挥直接促进作用；其次，人力资本通过促进互联网金融的发展对银行金融科技发展发挥间接促进作用。异质性检验结果表明，人力资本对不同地区、不同类型银行的影响具有差异性。基于研究结论，为加快银行金融科技发展、实现数字化转型提出对策建议。     

The growth of China and India: implications and policy reform options for Malaysia

This study explores the trade‐related impacts of rapid growth of China and India on the Malaysian economy and evaluates policy options to better position Malaysia to take advantage of these changes. Higher growth in China and India is likely to raise Malaysia's national income and to expand Malaysia's natural resource and agricultural exports, while putting downward pressure on exports from some manufacturing and service sectors. Increases in the quality and variety of exports from China and India are likely to increase substantially the overall gains to Malaysia. The expansion of the natural resource sectors and the contraction of manufacturing and services reflect a Dutch‐disease effect that will raise the importance of policies to facilitate adaptation to the changing world economy and improve competitiveness. Most‐favoured‐nation (MFN) liberalisation would increase welfare, and, by increasing competitiveness, raise output and exports of key industries. Preferential liberalisation with India and completely free trade with China would provide greater market access gains than MFN reform, but neither would be as effective in increasing income as MFN liberalisation, and free trade agreements would lead to greater competitive pressure on many of Malaysia's industries than MFN liberalisation. Increased investments in education and infrastructure could boost manufacturing and services sectors in Malaysia, while improving trade logistics would benefit sectors with high transport costs, including the agricultural and resource‐based industries.     

金融科技能否助推民营企业创新发展？——来自中国上市民营企业数据的实证研究

金融科技已经全面融入各行各业。民营企业作为经济高质量发展的重要推动力量,与金融有着天然的互补性,特别是上市民营企业,离不开金融科技的支持,金融科技助力民营企业创新发展已经成为大势所趋。通过对2011—2020年中国A股上市民营企业数据和省级数字普惠金融指数进行实证研究发现,金融科技能够显著提升上市民营企业创新绩效,有效缓解融资约束问题。因此,应持续推进金融科技的发展,充分发挥金融科技对民营企业的创新推动作用。     

Economic Restructuring,Informal Jobs and Pro‐poor Growth in Urban China

Based on household survey datasets and the framework of pro‐poor growth, the present paper discusses how economic growth and inequality affect poverty reduction in urban China. The findings in this paper suggest that the poor benefit from economic growth through the trickle‐down effect, but that the poor benefit disproportionally less than the nonpoor in both periods, from 1988 to 1995 and from 1995 to 2002; however, in the latter period, the pro‐poorness is higher than that of the former period. Using the principle of Shapley decomposition, this paper develops an index of pro‐poor growth for each income component, and finds that the income from informal jobs is the main contributor to the pro‐poorness of growth during the period 1995 to 2002.     

Effects of inclusive public agricultural extension service: Results from a policy reform experiment in western China

The top–down public agricultural extension system in China and its early commercialization reforms during the 1990s have left millions of farmers without access to extension services. A pilot inclusive agricultural extension system was introduced in 2005 to better meet the diverse needs of small-scale farmers. Three key features of the experiment are (1) inclusion of all farmers as target beneficiaries, (2) effective identification of farmers' extension service needs, and (3) an accountability system to provide better agricultural extension services to farmers. This paper describes design of the reform initiative and examines its effect on farmers' access to extension services. Based on farmer supplied data from six counties for the years 2005 to 2007, this paper shows that inclusive reform initiatives significantly improve farmers' access to and actually received of agricultural extension services as well as their adoption of new technologies. Implications for further reforms to the agricultural extension system are also discussed.     

Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Environmental Quality in China

As a developing country with great regional disparities, China's rapid urbanization has had important impacts on environmental quality. In this study, the drivers‐mechanisms‐effects (DME) model is built, which shows how element agglomeration, scale growth, knowledge accumulation and industry evolution drive the environmental system to change during the urbanization process. An econometric regression model using provincial panel data is further constructed to empirically analyze the impacts of urbanization on environmental quality. It is shown that during the process of urbanization in China, element agglomeration and knowledge accumulation help to improve environmental quality but with weak positive effect, while growing urban scale and industrial structure have obvious negative effects on environmental quality. The “inverted‐U shape” (up first and then down) change in the environmental quality during China's urbanization process is obvious. It is critical that China concentrates on the transformations of both city development paths and urbanization models to reduce resource and environmental costs as much as possible.     

我国农村工业化和农村城镇化相互关系的实证分析

本文对1978年以来中国农业发展、农村工业化和农村城镇化三者之间的相互关系进行了Granger因果检验和VAR分析。结果显示：农村工业化对农业发展和农村城镇化产生了积极的推动作用．而农业发展对农村工业化和城镇化起到了负面影响；农村城镇化对农业发展和农村工业化均不具有显著影响。     

Mind the gaps: a political economy of the multiple dimensions of China's rural–urban divide

China's impressive growth has been accompanied by high inequality and a wide rural–urban divide. This paper identifies and examines some of the major dimensions of this divide: income, consumption, education, employment, health care, pensions, access to public services, and the environment. The paper attributes the main causes of the divide to China's urban‐biased development strategies and the resulting lack of social provision of public goods in rural areas. It also highlights the severe and multidimensional constraints on the Chinese peasantry and argues that increased equality and efficiency can now be pursued simultaneously.     

创造与保护:为什么需要更多的再分配

迄今为止,中国在改革开放发展分享方面的经验以及全球性收入分配恶化带来的社会不稳定和政治分化现象都证明了经济学传统观点即坚信经济增长可以自动解决收入分配问题,或者把效率与公平视为非此即彼且不可兼得的取舍关系的失灵。然而,中国改革开放发展分享的任务尚未完成。在迈向高收入阶段的过程中继续保持经济发展的充分分享性需要应对一系列崭新的挑战。这表现在三个方面:首先,进入高质量发展阶段后,提高生产率必然要求创造性破坏机制发挥更大作用,需要同时兼顾企业的优胜劣汰与对劳动者的社会化保护。其次,劳动力市场的初次分配效应呈现递减趋势,需要更好地发挥作用。最后,新科技革命过程中,创新和创业成果的分享面临诸多难点需要克服。这都要求政府在基本公共服务供给中承担更大的支出责任,以更大的政策力度实施再分配政策,包括社会保障、劳动力市场制度、收入分配政策以及其他旨在改善民生的基本公共服务。     

Liberalisation and Financial Sector Competition: A Critical Contribution to the Empirics with an African Assessment

This paper investigates how financial, trade, institutional and political liberalisation policies have affected financial sector competition in Africa using updated data to appraise second‐generation reforms. The “freedom to trade” and “economic freedom” indices are employed. Hitherto, unexplored financial sector concepts of formalisation, semi‐formalisation, informalisation and non‐formalisation are also introduced. The following findings are established. First, relative to money supply, (i) with the exception of the economic freedom mechanism, liberalisation policies have generally decreased the growth of the formal financial sector to the benefit of other financial sectors; (ii) apart from the foreign direct investment and economic freedom channels, liberalisation policies have been fruitful for semi‐formal financial development at the cost of other financial sectors and; (iii) with the exception of economic freedom, both the informal and non‐formal sectors have developed owing to liberalisation to the detriment of the formal financial sector. Second, relative to gross domestic product, the semi‐formal, informal and/or non‐formal financial sectors have also generally improved as a result of liberalisation. Policy implications are discussed.     

新型城镇化进程中农业转移人口市民化公共成本测算及财政对策研究——以温州市“十四五”时期为例

推动新型城镇化发展必须以城镇常住人口基本公共服务全覆盖为路径,提升农业转移人口享受城镇公共产品和服务的水平,促进农业转移人口市民化。新型城镇化过程中农业转移人口市民化的公共成本分为3类：提供基本公共服务所需的经常性支出、提供基本公共服务所需的设施建设支出和其他城镇基础设施建设支出。测算发现,温州市“十四五”期间新型城镇化进程中农业转移人口市民化公共成本的新增需求为449.11亿元,人均公共成本为10.52万元。建议通过有序推进农业转移人口市民化、拓宽基础设施建设和公共服务投融资渠道、提高财政资金使用效率以及财政资金重点向县城及小城镇倾斜来优化温州市新型城镇化建设进程中的财政支出责任。     

数字经济发展、数字鸿沟与城乡居民收入差距

在借鉴测度数字经济的国际权威体系的基础上,文章从六个维度构建了数字经济发展指标,形成2012-2018年省级平衡面板数据,探讨了数字经济发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响。实证研究发现,数字经济发展与城乡居民收入差距之间存在U型关系,即数字经济发展初期会降低城乡收入差距,但数字经济的进一步发展会拉大城乡收入差距,产生数字鸿沟问题。该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验发现,数字经济发展通过影响城镇化和城乡居民相对创业水平来影响城乡居民收入差距,在数字经济发展早期,数字经济发展能够促进城镇化以及更多提升乡村的创业水平,但数字经济发展后期,其会导致"逆城镇化"以及更多提升城市的创业水平。进一步研究发现,农村基础设施建设的推进和农村金融发展水平的提升都可以显著地调节数字经济发展与城乡居民收入差距之间的U型关系,加强数字经济初始发展阶段对于缓解城乡收入差距的积极作用,抑制数字经济发展后期拉大城乡收入差距的消极作用。文章的研究结果表明加大农村基础设施投资力度和加快农村金融发展是确保数字经济发展惠及农村居民的重要保障,由此形成推动我国数字经济包容性发展的政策建言。     

中国保险业发展、城市化与经济增长

本文采用我国1985年-2011年时间序列数据。检验和估计了我国保险业发展、城市化水平与经济增长的关系。结果表明：城市化水平、非寿险业发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,而寿险业与经济增长之间因果关系不显著;城市化水平、非寿险业与经济增长存在正向关系,而寿险业对长期经济增长产生抑制效应;城市化水平对经济增长的贡献大于非寿险业对经济增长的贡献。为此,本文提出政府应加大对保险业发展的政策支持力度。均衡发展寿险业和非寿险业,重点支持县域和农村保险业的发展,拓宽保险业参与国民经济发展的途径;加快城市化建设的进程以促进保险业的发展;在城市化进程中重视非寿险业的发展。     

Measuring Green Productivity Growth for China's Manufacturing Sectors: 1991–2000*

Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8–10 percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non‐marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy‐makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare‐based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non‐desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time‐series input–output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.     

Long‐term trends in economic inequality: lessons from colonial Botswana, 1921–74

This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long‐term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post‐independence diamond‐led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this pathway of rapid resource‐driven growth combined with increasing socio‐economic inequality had already started during the time of the colonial cattle economy, and that this older case is equally relevant for understanding long‐term growth‐inequality trends in Botswana and other natural‐resource‐dependent economies. Six social tables, covering the period 1921 to 1974, are constructed using colonial archives, government statistics, and anthropological records. Based on the social tables, income inequality is estimated in the colonial and early post‐independence eras, capturing both the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The article demonstrates how the creation of a cattle export sector in the 1930s brought new opportunities to access export incomes, and how this led to a polarization in cattle holdings and increasing income inequalities. Further, with the expansion of colonial administration, government wages forged ahead, increasing income inequality and causing a growing income divide between public and private formal employment.     

A cluster analysis of commercialisation of farmers in developing rural areas of South Africa

The purpose of this article is to classify farmers in developing rural areas according to their commercial orientation and to evaluate their distinguishing characteristics. Farmers in these areas use both farm and non‐farm activities to commercialise to some degree. The aim of the commercialisation strategy is to generate income for acquiring other basic goods and services. A cluster analysis of 392 households surveyed in 1987 in the former KaNgwane identified seven groups of farming households: very low commercial households, moderately commercial households, high agricultural commercial households, livestock commercial households, non‐farm income households, non‐farm and agricultural commercial households and highly commercial households. The characteristics of four of these groups were investigated further. The current status of the commercialisation process suggests several policy directions: food security programmes should be aimed at those lacking resources, who may also be threatened by food shortages; emerging farmers with limited resources should be encouraged to diversify their income‐generating activities ‐ they should be given support (including access to land, markets, credit and management) to encourage them to prosper; and the progressive farmers require enhanced programmes to sustain their competitiveness.     

Do Interest Rate Liberalization and Fintech Mix? Impact on Shadow Deposits in China

In this paper we attempt to characterize the stability of shadow deposits in China with interest rate liberalization and fintech developments. We emphasize that shadow banks provide higher but riskier returns and such characteristics affect the stability of shadow deposits. In our setting, the stability of shadow deposits is influenced by two offsetting effects, namely: the patience effect, which makes investors more willing to wait because of the potentially higher returns; and the uncertainty effect, which makes investors more likely to withdraw as a result of higher risk. Under liberalized interest rates, the patience effect will erode and the uncertainty effect will be heightened because the post‐liberalization higher return of traditional banks undermines the importance of the extra return of shadow deposits to depositors, while preserving the importance of the risk aspect. Fintech development is modeled as a reduction in the withdrawal cost that facilitates runs. This affects the stability of shadow deposits because of their wider fintech reliance. Regulators should be cautious in pushing interest rate liberalization and fintech application alongside building a safety net for shadow banking.     

中国实现非农化所面临的投资约束及对策分析

随着我国农业劳动生产率的提高,农业部门现有劳动力出现了大量过剩,再加上每年农村新增劳动力,导致农业劳动力的边际产出一直处于负增长状态。因此,要让农民分享到经济增长的好处,提高农民收入水平,唯一的选择是非农化,即将农业劳动力向非农产业转移,两者之间如何选择也一直是学术界争论的焦点。非农化的实现主要有两种形式：城市化和发展小城镇。文章从城市化的投资约束的角度论述了发展小城镇依然是实现非农化的必由之路,并提出了若干对策与建议。     

SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

Tax Revenue Effects of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Uganda

This paper contributes to a growing strand of literature on the determinants of tax revenue performance in developing countries, particularly in Sub‐Saharan Africa. More specifically we estimate the tax elasticities of sectoral output growth and public expenditure. The unique features of this paper are twofold: First, we develop a simple analytical model for tax revenue performance taking into account some structural features pervasive in most developing countries with large informal sectors. Second, we test the model predictions on Ugandan time series data using ARDL bounds testing techniques. Results indicate that dominance of the agricultural and informal sectors pose the largest impediments to tax revenue performance. In addition development expenditures, trade openness, and industrial sector growth are positively associated with tax revenue performance. We propose policies to support the development of value added linkages between agricultural and industrial sectors while emphasizing the need to unlock the potentially large contributions of the informal sector with a view of widening the tax base.