Spatial patterns of development and the British housing market

The government wants 3m houses built by 2020. Economic theorytells us their locations matter for living standards. Economicscannot tell us the optimal locations, but does show that housesare usually socially more valuable in high land-price areas,because additional workers are more productive in such places.Land-price data and evidence on urban agglomeration economiespoint to a significant rise in the optimal sizes of some UKcities and that optimal locations have moved from industrial-revolutioncities towards the South-east. As a result, significantly expandingLondon, its commuter satellites, and other high-skill placesin the UK, but particularly in the South-east, is likely togenerate substantial rises in wages and living standards. Inthese places the planning system dramatically constrains theeconomy from responding with nineteenth-century dynamism, whennew economic opportunities led some towns to grow dramatically.     

A diagnostic approach to intra-metropolitan spatial targeting: Evidence from Cape Town,South Africa

This article ascribes poor returns from place-based economic policy to prevailing spatial norms and causal assumptions which continue to influence its deployment across South African cities. By elevating the local over the systemic as the cause of and solution to urban problems, spatial targeting in the telescopic mould gives rise to three forms of spatial bias which lock in suboptimal local outcomes and gradually undermine the resilience of the urban system. Place-based policy should instead be guided by a systemic and relational evaluation of local economic potentiality supported by data-driven planning tools. The article introduces one such tool developed by the City of Cape Town, focusing on its theoretical basis, initial findings and implications for intervention. We find that the tool represents a robust platform for policy-makers to make targeting decisions that are more evidence led and hence less arbitrary.     

从国际公共产品到区域性公共产品——区域合作理论的新增长点

区域性公共产品概念是对国际公共产品概念的继承和发展。深化对区域性公共产品的理论建构是当前国际关系学研究的新热点之一。经济学中的公共产品理论与地区主义的五阶段说和功能主义的溢出说相融合,为传统的区域合作理论提供了新的理论分析框架。公共产品消费中非排他性和非竞争性的特征为选取区域合作的内容设定了较为客观的标准。公共产品的成本-收益分析则从经济学的角度较为科学地说明了驱动有关国家开展区域合作的内在动力。此外,公共产品理论中有关外部性的论述还可解决域外大国参与区域合作的难题。     

城市群空间层级的定量分析--一种方法的引入及在长江三角洲城市群中的应用

文章首先介绍了城市群的基本概念和功能,然后指出城市群空间层级对城市存在重大影响;接着引入了一种新的研究方法,从城市地理空间、城市规模、城市功能及城市开放度四个方面来综合考察城市群的空间层级结构,并应用该方法对长三角城市群的空间层级进行了研究分析,在此基础上对     

高新技术产业时空格局演变及影响因素——河南省电子及通信设备制造业的实证分析

基于河南省18个地市电子及通信设备制造业产值、企业数量、从业人员等统计数据,利用空间基尼系数、产业动态集聚指数等指标对河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚度进行测定和分析,并通过构建多元线性回归模型检验网络基础设施、创新支撑条件、制度因素对其空间集聚的影响.结果表明:研究时段内,河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚度呈上升态势;在空间上主要集中于郑州、洛阳、新乡、许昌等中原城市群核心城市;网络基础设施、创新支撑条件、经济制度环境对河南省电子及通信设备制造业的空间集聚有显著影响.     

高铁背景下城市群旅游空间结构转型研究——以环渤海、长三角为例

华北、华东地区旅游空间结构转型进程因京沪高铁的开通而加剧。文章从内在因素与支撑性因素两方面构建起研究的理论框架,分析了京沪高铁、城际快速客运系统开通后环渤海与长三角城市群的旅游空间转型过程与方向。研究结果显示,在新旅游空间格局下,各地旅游空间功能将发生转型,从总体上形成"旅游客源地—区际交通连接—旅游集散地—区内网络交通连接—多个旅游目的地"网状空间格局。     

South Africa's economics of education: A stocktaking and an agenda for the way forward

This paper reviews some of the existing economics of education literature from the perspective of South Africa's education policymaking needs. It also puts forward a suggested research agenda for future work. The review is arranged according to five areas of research: rates of return, production functions, teacher incentives, benefit incidence analysis and cross-country comparisons. Production functions, especially if translated to cost-effectiveness models, can point to important policy solutions. Teacher incentives is a policy area that is in need of a better theoretical and empirical basis. Rates of return are difficult for policymakers to interpret, but suggest a need for a qualification below the Grade 12 level. While benefit incidence analysis can demonstrate large improvements in the equity of public financing, cross-country comparisons reveal that not only is the distribution of schooling outcomes particularly unequal, on average it is well below what the country's level of development would predict.     

Polycentric development in the Cape Town city-region: Empirical assessment and consideration of spatial policy implications

The concept of the ‘polycentric urban region’ has been popularised both as a theoretical concept for understanding regional urban systems in an era of reduced transport and communication costs, and as a normative policy objective in its own right. This paper explores its relevance to the rapidly urbanising Cape Town city-region. First, empirical evidence for the emergence of polycentric regional development patterns was considered. Shifts in relative settlements sizes (morphological polycentrism) over the period 1991–2011 were examined using population data, and patterns of inter-settlement interactions (functional polycentrism) were explored by analysing commuting information. Contrary to expectations, trends toward polycentric development were found to be weak. Second, the paper considers the relevance and value of polycentric development thinking for regional economic and spatial planning policy, concluding that there are insufficient grounds for policy intervention aimed at encouraging polycentric regional development or countering the dominance of Cape Town in the region.     

地方官员变更对企业投资影响的空间范围——基于政企联盟重建的逻辑分析

文章运用政企联盟重建这一理论对政企双方行为进行分析,完整的解释了我国官员变更对企业投资影响所呈现出的区域、层级及所有制特征,利用2003-2012年沪深两市上市企业面板数据进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）官员变更对企业投资的影响呈现区域性、层级性特征。省委书记变更省委书记变更不会对全省的企业投资产生显著影响,但导致省会城市的企业投资明显减少,对省会城市影响高于非省会城市影响;市委书记变更对市区企业投资影响显著高于对县区企业影响。（2）省委书记与国有企业建立的紧密联盟会突破本地性特征,延伸到外地,而省委书记与民营企业建立的默契联盟则具有明显的本地性。文章研究丰富了官员变更对企业投资影响的相关文献。     

Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy

In this paper, we use results of a novel survey covering 1,000 firms from 16 different sectors of the Turkish economy along with a two‐sector dynamic general equilibrium model to measure the extent of informality in these sectors. Moreover, we also evaluate the effects of two different policy tools on informality, namely, income taxes and tax enforcement. Our results show that while both are effective policy tools in dealing with informality, tax enforcement is a relatively more efficient tool and tax becomes quite ineffective at lower levels of informality.     

Measuring Restrictiveness of Bilateral Trade Policies: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries

This paper compares the degree of openness to trade of three developed countries markets—the European Union, Japan, the United States—with that of three middle-income countries, namely Brazil, India, and China. A theoretically consistent protection measure—the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI)—is employed to average tariffs at different levels of aggregation. The computation relies on a comparative static applied general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project—GTAP) featuring imperfect competition as well as on the bilateral applied tariffs included in the most recent version of the GTAP database. Results provide a different picture from what could have been expected given the widely publicized diffusion of preferential schemes supposedly favoring developing countries exports. JEL no.  F17, C68, Q17     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value-Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy-wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi-regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative.     

总体公共政策与发展战略——国际视野下中国案例透视

文章以新的视角来研究国家发展的曲折历程,即区分考察不同的总体公共政策（GPP）及发展战略。在经历了一系列挫折之后,中国确立了以经济建设为中心而在方法（主义）上博采众长的总体公共政策,并在这条中国特色的道路上有了迅猛发展。经济改革导致“经济社会”现象出现的同时削减了政府的经济职能,政策重点最近已向社会经济平衡发展模式转变。中国可从有“发展型福利”新趋向的西方国家汲取经验以免重蹈传统福利国家之覆辙。