Network valuation in financial systems

We introduce a general model for the balance‐sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the same time, it also provides a natural extension of classic structural credit risk models to the case of an interconnected system. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of a valuation that maximizes individual and total equity values for all banks. We apply our model to the assessment of systemic risk and in particular for the case of stress testing. Further, we provide a fixed‐point algorithm to carry out the network valuation and the conditions for its convergence.     

Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests

We propose a systematic algorithmic reverse-stress testing methodology to create “worst case” scenarios for regulatory stress tests by accounting for losses that arise from distressed portfolio liquidations. First, we derive the optimal bank response for any given shock. Then, we introduce an algorithm which systematically generates scenarios that exploit the key vulnerabilities in banks' portfolio holdings and thus maximize contagion despite banks' optimal response to the shock. We apply our methodology to data of the 2016 European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test, and design worst case scenarios for the portfolio holdings of European banks at the time. Using spectral clustering techniques, we group 10,000 worst-case scenarios into twelve geographically concentrated families. Our results show that even though there is a wide range of different scenarios within these 12 families, each cluster tends to affect the same banks. An “Anna Karenina” principle of stress testing emerges: Not all stressful scenarios are alike, but every stressful scenario stresses the same banks. These findings suggest that the precise specification of a scenario is not of primal importance as long as the most vulnerable banks are targeted and sufficiently stressed. Finally, our methodology can be used to uncover the weakest links in the financial system and thereby focus supervisory attention on these, thus building a bridge between macroprudential and microprudential stress tests.     

系统性金融风险的测度方法比较

系统性风险的一般测量方法有矩阵模型、网络模型、违约率强度模型。次贷危机中系统性风险的测量最为重要的是由信用风险导致的系统风险和从综合化经营机构传导的系统风险。对系统性风险的测量不同的方法差别很大,每种方法都有各自的缺陷。我国银行体系的系统性风险主要来源于信贷扩张风险,因而矩阵法与网络法是适合我国现实的,矩阵法已经得以初步应用,但该方法的使用仍需进一步改进。     

COVID-19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets using a copula-based network method. We document a significant increase in the lower and upper tail contagiousness of commodities following the COVID-19 outbreak. Contagion shows an obvious clustering characteristic, that is, there is higher tail risk connectedness between commodities in the same category. Agricultural commodities are significantly less contagious than metals and energy commodities; soft commodities in particular can offer investors significant diversification benefits. There are several hub commodities in the contagion network, chief among them copper, which are good transmitters of shocks and should be treated with caution by investors and regulators. Although tail risk and contagiousness of individual commodities increase together during the pandemic, we find a negative cross-sectional relationship between tail risk and contagiousness, that is, commodities with high tail risk are not necessarily highly contagious and may even be less so.     

Propensity to plan,financial capability,and financial satisfaction

Propensity to plan is an indicator of financial capability that contributes to consumer financial well‐being. Previous research has shown that propensity to plan is positively related to objective financial well‐being but little research was found to examine its association with subjective financial well‐being. Using financial satisfaction to measure subjective financial well‐being, this study addressed this research gap and had three objectives: (1) to explore factors associated with propensity to plan, (2) to examine the association between propensity to plan and financial capability factors, and (3) to examine the association between propensity to plan and financial satisfaction. Using data from the 2015 US National Financial Capability Study, the results showed socioeconomic differences in propensity to plan. The results suggest consumers with more economic resources had higher scores in propensity to plan. In addition, propensity to plan was positively associated with financial capability factors, suggesting financial planning is a desirable financial behavior. Finally, propensity to plan made unique contributions to financial satisfaction after controlling for socioeconomic and other financial capability factors.     

Exchange market pressure,commodity prices,and contagion in Latin America

Over the past two decades, Latin American currencies have faced not only pressure to devalue but also periods of uncomfortable appreciation. Domestic macroeconomic factors, as well as global events and contagion, might bear part of the responsibility. This study constructs a monthly index of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four Latin American countries before using vector autoregressive methods to test the influence of commodity prices, macroeconomic variables, and external factors on each country's index. While inflation is an important determinant of EMP, we conclude that Chile and Peru are more likely than Mexico and Brazil to face pressure when commodity prices fall. This supports the idea that these two countries have “commodity currencies” and that their exchange markets are most vulnerable to international contagion.     

The links between job insecurity,financial well‐being and financial stress: A moderated mediation model

This study proposed a nuanced approach to the association between job insecurity and financial stress by examining whether financial well‐being mediates the established association. In addition, we examined whether the association between the job insecurity and financial stress, through financial well‐being, is moderated by income. For this study, we conducted a path analysis using 1,145 survey respondents. Results revealed a significant relationship between the job insecurity and financial stress and a partial mediation effect of financial well‐being. Moreover, the indirect effect of job insecurity on financial stress through financial well‐being was moderated by income. Although people who have higher financial well‐being were more likely to have lower financial stress, this relationship varied by income such that it was stronger for higher income groups than for lower income groups. Our findings provide insights into the way job insecurity and financial well‐being influence financial stress. This study will help the researchers and practitioners develop more effective and adaptive intervention programmes and resources for individuals and families. Implications for practice and directions for future research are discussed.     

Household characteristics and the change of financial risk tolerance during the financial crisis in the United States

This study examines how household financial risk tolerance is affected during the period of 2007 and 2009, which covered the eve and trough of the financial crisis in the United States and what types of households are associated with the change of risk tolerance. Risk tolerance is measured by two objective indicators, narrowly and broadly defined stock ownership, and a subjective indicator, risk taking attitude. Using panel data from 2007 to 2009 Survey of Consumer Finances, results show that during the financial crisis, the households in general are more risk averse, indicated by withdrawing from stock markets and holding a less risk taking attitude. In addition, Black and Hispanic households are more likely and households with higher education are less likely to withdraw from stock markets. Older households are less likely to change in risk tolerance during the financial crisis, as are richer households. The findings show panel data could generate novel results and contribute to the literature of financial risk tolerance.     

Effect of corporate governance on default risk in financial versus nonfinancial firms: Canadian evidence

This paper investigates the influence of corporate governance variables on default risk of Canadian firms after the 2008 financial crisis. We provide evidence that important governance mechanisms have differential impacts between Canadian financial and nonfinancial firms. Ownership structure, (e.g., institutional ownership and insider ownership), has a significant impact on the default risk of financial firms but not on nonfinancial firms. Nonfinancial firms with more independent boards are associated with lower default risk, while financial firms with larger boards and more independent boards have higher default risk. In addition, although cross‐listing in the US reduces the default risk for Canadian nonfinancial firms, it actually increases the risk for Canadian financial firms during the postcrisis period. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多元化速度与企业风险短期关联研究——基于中国制造业上市公司数据的研究

企业多元化是个持续过程,度量企业多元化还须使用动态维度,多元化速度可以作为度量企业多元化的动态指标。基于沪深两市制造业上市公司的数据资料,构建多元回归模型,考察多元化速度对企业市场风险、财务风险、经营风险以及总风险的影响,得出以下结论:短期内,较快的多元化速度能降低企业市场风险、财务风险和经营风险;当经济总体处于快速发展阶段,企业应重视多元化速度所产生的正面影响,不失时机加快多元化速度,促进企业成长。     

压力测试与反向压力测试在银行风险管理中的运用

压力测试作为一般风险计量工具的重要补充,越来越受到金融监管部门和银行业的重视。文章从压力测试和反向压力测试的原理与方法出发,比较分析压力测试与在险价值(VaR)的特征性与互补性,通过示例阐明压力情景的设置方法和压力测试的操作过程,并探讨压力测试和反向压力测试在银行风险管理中的实务问题。     

中国在全球股市风险传染网络中的角色研究——基于次贷危机和欧债危机时期的样本分析

本文利用Diks和Panchenko(2006)改进的非线性Granger因果检验方法研究了次贷危机和欧债危机期间全球主要股市间的联动性,并基于此探讨了两次危机期间中国股市在全球股市风险传染网络中的角色定位问题。研究结果表明:(1)次贷危机期间,中国股市作为风险接收者,起着风险承担的作用。欧债危机期间,中国股市风险承担作用明显减弱,并存在一定程度的风险溢出。在两次危机的全球股市风险传染网络中,美国股市始终居于主导地位。(2)对比两次金融危机,次贷危机期间全球主要股市间风险传染程度更高。滚动窗口法进一步验证了本文结论的稳健性。     

NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.