欧债危机背景下拓展中国对欧盟投资策略研究

进一步扩大对外直接投资已成为我国经济发展的必然选择。欧盟是我国第四大境外直接投资目的地,但我国对欧盟直接投资金额仅略超过全国境外直接投资总额的3%,尚有很大增长潜力。欧元区主权债务危机的爆发,使国际政治经济格局发生深刻演变,更为我国扩大对欧盟投资提供了新的视野和机遇。     

European versus American Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative

China has started to deploy its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the European Union (EU), and the EU in turn has regional and global interests that intersect with the BRI's scope. Subject to future adjustments of China's BRI strategy, the initiative's potential contribution to the EU requirements for infrastructure development could be significant, even though its modalities in the EU are inevitably different from those in countries that are poorer or have more difficult financial market access. The EU's attitude to the BRI, however, has not yet fully coalesced. Despite superficial similarities in public discourses, the EU has a profoundly distinct perspective from that of the US on the BRI, and more generally on the rise of China and its growing global influence. For the EU, the BRI generates challenges but also potential benefits. The EU should improve its ability to welcome sensible BRI projects, including through the adoption of greater reform of screening frameworks for foreign direct investment. More generally, the EU should enhance its ability to define policies independent of the US on China and the challenges resulting from China's rise. China should also make further efforts to foster a constructive relationship with the EU.     

Earning the “Write to Speak”: Sell‐Side Analysts and Their Struggle to Be Heard

This paper explores the ways in which sell‐side (SS) financial analysts seek to position themselves advantageously within the wider field of investment advice in spite of widespread skepticism over the value that their forecasts and recommendations add to investment decisions. The field of investment advice has been characterized in recent years by a number of regulatory and technological changes that have forced SS analysts to reconstitute the ways in which they influence the investment decisions of buy‐side (BS) actors. Faced with existential threats, SS analysts have responded to the disruptive impact of technology and regulation by struggling hard to ensure that their services are still valued by fund managers. Key to this ongoing process is the recalibration of professional expertise, which previous research has alluded to but not explored in detail. Central to the persistence of SS analysts in processes of investment decision making are activities revolving around the production and use of analyst reports which, our findings indicate, are less valuable for their informational content than their role as “relational devices,” ascribing legitimacy to SS analysts and earning them an entry ticket to more substantive, value‐adding interactions with companies and BS actors. We also show that economic considerations in the area of investment advice are influenced by social ties, the motivations of various actors in the field, and their relative position vis‐à‐vis other actors. More generally, we contribute to the literature on professional projects by showing how professional groups are constantly engaged in attempts to reposition themselves in the social space, but that field‐level changes can restrict the outcomes of these strategies to mitigation rather than advancement for the professionals concerned.     

China＇s Outward Direct and Portfolio Investments

This paper analyzes developments and trends related to China's outward direct and financial investments by examining Chinese firms’overseas acquisitions, China's holdings of US Treasury securities, and the recently formally launched Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor programs. Strategies should be developed to reach optimal decisions for both direct and portfolio investments. We argue that China should have a longer‐term view for both direct and portfolio investments, enabling China to become the leader in Asia while maintaining its sustainable growth objective. China should invest heavily in the development of the Asian bond market and the Asian Currency Fund when making both portfolio and direct investment decisions.     

European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach

European Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. — This paper implements a panel data approach for studying the determinants of and relationships between bilateral economic activities in terms of both trade and foreign direct investment between the EU member states. The familiar equation for testing the determinants of bilateral exports is reformulated to reflect recent theoretical work. It is specified as a dynamic panel data model designed to answer questions about their relationship according to changes in different exogenous determinants. Exports and stocks of outward FDI are found to be substitutes with respect to changes in transport costs and complements with respect to most of the other determinants.     

Market Consequences of Earnings Management in Response to Security Regulations in China*

Under the 1996‐98 security regulations in China, the accounting rate of return on equity (ROE) has to be greater than 10 percent for three "consecutive" years for a firm to qualify for stock rights offers. Despite declining economic conditions during this period, the percentage of firms reporting ROE between 10 and 11 percent is about "three" times that for 1994‐95. This unique regulatory environment provides a natural experimental setting for the empirical assessment of earnings‐management behavior and its consequences. This study examines whether listed Chinese firms manage earnings to meet regulatory benchmarks and whether regulators and investors consider the quality of earnings in their respective regulatory and investment decisions. On the basis of a sample of listed Chinese firms from 1996 to 1998, we observe that managers execute transactions involving below‐the‐line items and use income‐increasing accounting accruals to meet regulatory ROE targets for stock rights offerings. The firms that apply for, but fail to receive, regulatory approval manage earnings more significantly than do firms that receive approval and pair‐matched control firms. Our market study also suggests that investors differentiate the quality of earnings and put less value on earnings suspected of a greater degree of management. Overall, our results imply that the regulatory bodies and investors to some extent make rational adjustments for the quality of earnings.     

货币互换协议、金融市场与中国对外直接投资

基于2003-2018年169个国家的面板数据,文章利用多期双重差分方法探讨了货币互换协议对我国对外直接投资规模与密集度的影响,并通过PSM-DID方法和证伪检验对模型的稳健性进行验证。在此基础上,运用中介效应和调节效应检验方法对货币互换政策的金融市场作用机制进行分析。研究发现,货币互换协议对我国OFDI规模与密集度均有显著积极影响;预期汇率风险是货币互换协议促进我国OFDI的重要影响机制,中介传导而非调节效应是主要影响渠道,而利率市场的影响机制尚未发挥作用。在经济全球化和复杂的国际形势下,这一研究对我国进一步推动国家间金融领域深化合作和推进人民币国际化以畅通国内国际双循环具有重要参考价值。     

我国境外直接投资的现状、问题和建议

我国企业境外直接投资在最近几年得到了较大的发展,一些问题也随之凸现,比如投资目的地过于集中、对境外投资的风险防范不足、人才匮乏等问题。针对这些问题,文章从政府和企业两大方面提了建议。     

中国企业对外直接投资的研究与展望

中国企业对外直接投资快速增长的现象引发了很多研究者的兴趣。本文对现有的有关中国企业对外直接投资的理论进行了回顾,并讨论了中国企业对外直接投资的动机、路径和政府的影响。本文还探寻了中国企业对外直接投资的理论基础,并指出了理论下一步发展的方向。     

Does Fair Value Accounting Contribute to Systemic Risk in the Banking Industry?

I investigate whether fair value accounting can contribute to the banking industry's systemic risk. I focus on the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 115 (SFAS No. 115), which required available‐for‐sale (AFS) securities to be recognized at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in equity through accumulated other comprehensive income. SFAS No. 115 increased banks' regulatory risk because, at the time, calculation of regulatory capital closely conformed with GAAP equity. I find that systemic risk increased following the adoption of SFAS No. 115. Furthermore, following a subsequent regulatory amendment—which excluded unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities from regulatory capital but did not change their GAAP treatment—systemic risk decreased. Taken together, the evidence suggests that fair value accounting has the potential to increase systemic risk through the explicit inclusion of volatile fair value estimates in regulatory bank capital adequacy assessments. I do not, however, find evidence of fair value accounting impacting systemic risk in its information role; that is, by providing information to a bank's external stakeholders about its financial position and performance. I also show that higher fair value volatility of investment securities, lower bank capital, and larger AFS security holdings increase banks' marginal contribution to systemic risk. My findings should interest regulators and policymakers, as recent regulatory changes in light of Basel III recommendations require unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities to be included in regulatory capital for advanced approaches banks.     

US Safeguards on Steel and the Markups of European Producers

This paper is among the first to explore the microeconomic impacts of a trade policy on foreign firms. We empirically investigate the effects of the US safeguard protection of steel imports in 2002 on the markups of EU steel firms. Using a large panel of affected EU steel firms between 1995 and 2005, we find that the protection they faced abroad significantly reduced their markups. Our results indicate smaller adverse effects on multi-product EU firms. Our study has wider implications as it quantifies the cost that trade protection imposes on trading partners, an externality currently not considered in any trade regulation. The US safeguard protection also resulted in some diversion of EU steel especially towards China, aggravating the situation on the Chinese steel market and ultimately resulting in the Chinese trade protection of steel imports. JEL no.  F13, L13, L61     

China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts

For a long time, China's impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based on a discussion of possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, this paper investigates the sustainability of China's investment and export‐driven growth model. Since the turn of the millennium, buoyant capital inflows and low interest rates have been at the root of overinvestment and misallocation of capital, which necessitated export subsidies to clear markets. The overinvestment boom is argued to have ended around 2014. Since then, the overcapacities have weakened China's bargaining position in the US–Chinese trade conflict and have tempted Chinese authorities to postpone the restructuring of the Chinese economy by providing low‐interest credit. The gradual reemergence of quasi‐soft budget constraints is seen to undermine China's long‐term growth potential.     

Does Security of Land Operational Rights Matter for the Improvement of Agricultural Production Efficiency under the Collective Ownership in China?

Under the “separation of three rights” policy, the impact of security of land operational rights on agricultural production efficiency has attracted much attention in recent years. Data envelopment analysis and mediation effect analysis were applied to 888 family farms run by new‐type agricultural operators from Songjiang to identify the mechanism of the effect of land operational rights security on agricultural production efficiency through long‐term investment. The results show that greater security of land operational rights generally increased agricultural production efficiency. Approximately 37.94 percent of the impact could be explained by long‐term investment. The results also indicate that significant heterogeneity exists in the effect of land operational rights security on agricultural production efficiency at various levels of the family farms’ efficiency distributions. It is suggested that government should legalize land operational rights and give them a status equal to those of households’ contractual rights and land ownership rights in China's future land tenure reform.     

潜在的力量——中国对外直接投资中不可忽视的华侨华人力量

随着中国经济的持续快速增长,国家外汇储备大幅度增加、国内企业经济实力不断提升,在此背景下,推动中国对外直接投资尤为迫切。鉴于中国对外直接投资的规模和困境,本文从华侨华人角度进行分析,期望能够为对外直接投资的发展有所帮助。     

Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China,Japan, and the United States

China has received enormous inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, including significant flows from Japan and the US. We examine these investment flows in detail to gain perspectives on their relative importance for the three countries involved. We also analyze the industrial composition of FDI flows over time. American FDI flows to China have been less concentrated in manufacturing than average for investors in China while Japan's FDI flows have been much more concentrated in manufacturing, particularly in transport, electrical and machinery industries in recent years. Using survey data from American and Japanese affiliates, we compare the employment patterns and sales destinations of American and Japanese affiliates in China. We find a much higher degree of export-orientation for Japanese affiliates than American affiliates, with the latter tending to make the vast majority of their sales in the Chinese market. Over time, however, we find a tendency towards convergence in the sales destinations of Japanese and American affiliates.     

Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?

The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the US and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this article we argue that the structure of financial systems is path‐dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the US in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early nineteenth century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast, the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis‐prone US banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks, and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2007–8 was not contained.     

Investigating Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investments： How Can Firm-level Data Help？

The empirical literature on China＇s outward foreign direct investment mainly relies on aggregate data from official statistics, but the reliability of such data is currently a matter of concern because it does not take account of relevant features such as industry breakdown, ownership structure and entry mode. A novel firm-level database, EMENDATA, compiled by matching data from several available sources on various types of cross-border deals and including information on group structure, provides a more accurate picture and enables new empirical analyses of the rapidly increasing presence of Chinese companies abroad. Based on this database, this paper offers a more precise assessment of the geographical and sector specialization patterns of Chinese outward foreign direct investment into Europe and suggests new avenues for future research.     

中国对外直接投资发展阶段的实证研究

伴随着中国经济国际竞争力的不断增强和“走出去”战略的逐步实施,中国已成为新兴的对外直接投资来源地。本文应用最新的经济统计数据,就中国经济发展水平和对外直接投资之间的关系进行实证研究,以此分析判断中国对外直接投资所处的发展阶段及未来趋势。实证结果表明:一方面,中国对外直接投资与邓宁的投资发展周期理论对经济发展与对外投资之间关系的规律性认识相吻合;另一方面,中国现阶段的对外直接投资的实际情况与理论预期还存在较大的差距,对外直接投资的发展阶段滞后于经济整体发展水平。     

Investment facilitation and China's outward foreign direct investment along the belt and road

This study provides a comprehensive and accurate measurement of investment facilitation in 66 countries along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2018. The expanded gravity model analyzes the impact of host country investment facilitation on China's outward foreign direct investment, and the panel threshold model examines the nonlinear relationship between investment facilitation and outward foreign direct investment. The results indicate significant differences in the level of investment facilitation among countries along the Belt and Road. Overall, spatial distribution characteristics are higher in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe compared to other regions. An increase of 1% in the level of investment facilitation provided by the host country can generally promote a 2.173% increase in China's outward foreign direct investment. Market size (GDP) and technological progress rate (Tec) were used as thresholds for dividing countries along the Belt and Road into four economic regions. Countries in the different economic regions have different levels of sensitivity to investment facilitation and first-level indicators. Currently, Chinese outward foreign direct investment is based on market acquisition but will be based on technological upgrading in the future.     

Antidumping and tariff Jumping: Japanese firms’ DFI in the European union and the United States

Antidumping and Tariff Jumping: Japanese Firms’ DFI in the European Union and the United States. — The relationship between EU and US antidumping measures and direct foreign investment (DFI) is examined through a micro-econometrical analysis of Japanese firms’ plant establishments in the electronics industry. After controlling for firm and industry capabilities, market size, transport cost, and product cycle effects, antidumping actions are found to have a substantial positive effect on Japanese DFL EU antidumping is roughly twice as likely to lead to tariffjumping DFI as US antidumping, which is ascribed to marked differences in antidumping procedures. Tariff jumping makes antidumping ineffective in combatting anticompetitive behaviour by foreign firms and may result in increased market concentration.