金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。     

论我国开展利率期货交易的条件

在我国金融创新的步伐加快、股指期货推出在即的气氛渲染下,国内对于利率期货的呼声也日渐高涨。那么我国是否真的就具备了推出利率期货的条件呢？文章认为,面对不可能一蹴而就的诸多限制条件,尚不能贸然推出利率期货。针对这一问题,文章在简略介绍了利率期货及其经济意义后,重点讨论了我国现阶段推出利率期货的诸多现实难点,并对开展利率期货需要重点突破的问题进行了解析,为今后我国发展利率期货提供了有益的参考。     

基于利率决定及影响因素理论的我国利率分析

利率对国民经济发挥着极其重要的作用,许多因素都与利率息息相关。我国利率目前是部分市场化,政府实行利率管制,对稳定物价、调节市场、促进经济发展和社会生产起到了良好作用。     

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.     

利率结构、利率变化和利率政策的有效性

长期以来,人们一直在致力于寻找一套能够完全解释利率结构和变化的理论,但至今仍未能统一人们对利率的认识。基于利率理论演变的简要回顾,重点对中西方利率政策有效性的研究现状进行系统梳理,以期对我国利率政策有效性的理论研究和实践工作提供一些借鉴。     

关于主银行制度和人为低利率政策--日本高速成长时期的金融制度研究

为了实现日本高速成长时期长期、快速、稳定的经济增长,金融制度在两个方面起到了重要的支撑作用.一方面,民间银行依托与企业的长期合作关系向企业提供融资等金融服务,形成了以银行融资为主的企业金融体制;另一方面,该时期实施的人为低利率政策取得了明显的＂租金＂效果.当然,日本在追赶目标实现之后金融体系转型具有滞后性并产生了严重的后果. 关健词：主银行制度;人为低利率政策;金融制度转型具有滞后性并产生了严重的后果.     

The Categorization of Small Open Economies and the Response to Foreign Interest Rate Shocks: Based on Financial Integration and Net External Credit

To analyze precisely effects of foreign interest rate hike shocks, this paper categorizes small open economies into four kinds of types based on the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level. The empirical result shows that responses of macroeconomic variables tend to differ substantially depending on the type of a small open economy. These findings imply that we need to consider the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level of a small open economy when we predict the effect of a foreign interest rate hike shock.     

Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM

Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID.     

利率市场化体系下完善住房公积金利率政策建议

在介绍现行公积金利率政策的基础上,分析其存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议：完善公积金利率定价机制,完善公积金利率管理体系。     

央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据

本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992~2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征,各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段,利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应;但在高通胀阶段,央行首先致力于维护金融稳定,然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征,但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值;文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。     

我国商业银行利率风险管理实证分析

采用利率敏感性缺口模型中的利率敏感性缺口、缺口率、利率敏感性比率和利率敏感性比率偏离度四个指标,对我国14家上市银行2006年和2007年的利率风险管理情况进行分析。结果显示：近年来我国商业银行利用利率敏感性缺口模型对利率风险进行了较有效的管理,但1年以上资产、负债的匹配上失衡现象严重,利率敏感性缺口的调整滞后于利率变化趋势;我国传统国有大型商业银行的利率风险管理,落后于新兴的股份制商业银行。     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

利率市场化及其风险防范

利率市场化是我国经济体制改革的一个重要的组成部分 ,如何防范和化解利率波动的风险是改革成败之关键     

Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from December 1986 to January 2001.     

A Lesson Learned from the Comparison of Bank Interest Rate in US and UK

According to the interest board, the current account interest and the loan interest rate vary from banks to countries. Both the current account interest and loan interest of US banks are lower than those of UK banks. And the spread between the two interest rates is greater in UK than that in US. Why is that？ The central banks base rates are always the reference interest rates for other banks when setting up the interest rates of their own. And the economy situation in that country may be a factor that affects the spread. Moreover, these two aspects link to each other. In this paper, we will look deeply into the economic situation and the pattern of change in the central bank interest rates in US and UK, hopefully we can bum a light to figure out the trend of change in bank interest rates.     

经济均衡视角的人民币利率与汇率联动关系

利率与汇率作为宏观经济调控的重要变量,理论上它们之间存在正反馈的联动关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验与VEC模型发现,人民币利率与人民币汇率之间存在双向因果关系,但通过脉冲响应模型与方差分解分析发现,长期的联动效应要大于短期的联动效应,人民币利率对汇率的影响要大于人民币汇率对利率的影响。     

公司财务治理过程各利益主体的博弈研究

公司财务治理过程中各利益主体的财务目标都是自身利益最大化,由于各利益主体在公司财务治理过程中的参与程度不同,必然导致各利益主体之间的不合作博弈,而不合作博弈的结果是公司总体经济利益受损,各利益主体就无法实现其财务目标。文章旨在利用博弈论理论,探索各利益主体之间合作博弈的途径,最终实现公司总体经济利益最大化。     

商业银行在利率执行中存在的问题及规范

利率作为国家货币金融政策的重要组成部分，是国家宏观金融调控的主要手段之一。利率水平的高低，体现国家宏观经济调控的政策导向。各商业银行必须严格执行国家规定的利率政策，擅自提高、降低存贷款利率，将直接影响国家宏观金融政策的贯彻执行，具有极大的危害性。研究和解决商业银行执行利率政策中存在的问题，建立切实可行的监管措施，将对规范市场经济秩序起到积极的作用。主要应采取强化对金融业的监管，建立商业银行自律机制，规范其经营行为，开展业务创新，全面实现银行业集约化经营等途径来实现。     

我国自然垄断行业价格管制的对策探讨

由于自然垄断行业所具有的独特的技术经济特点,往往需要政府对其进行价格管制。本文分析了我国当前自然垄断行业价格监管体制存在的问题和产品定价规制原理,并结合我国的具体实践,构建了我国自然垄断行业的价格管制模型,进而提出了规范我国价格监管体制的对策。     

利率与公司债务期限结构的实证研究——基于制造业的经验分析

文章选取2005-2012年A股制造业公司的非平衡面板数据,通过固定效应模型和随机效应模型实证检验了利率与企业债务期限结构之间的关系。结果表明,名义利率越高,债务融资成本越大,上市公司会使用更多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;通货膨胀率越高,债务融资的代理成本会越大,上市公司获得长期债务的难度较大,因而会使用较多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;实际利率对债务期限结构的影响方向与名义利率相反:实际利率越高,上市公司使用更多的长期债务,债务期限结构越长。进一步的研究发现,相较于民营企业,国有企业对利率的敏感度更高;无论是国有企业还是民营企业,对名义利率的敏感度均比实际利率高。文章为宏观政策如何影响微观企业债务结构提供了新的经验证据。