Exchange Rate Pass-through,Unemployment and Optimal Implementable Monetary Policy Rule for Emerging Economies

Abstract

This paper develops a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and search-matching frictions to study the implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy in emerging countries. I find that, with complete exchange rate pass-through, the optimal policy rule features unemployment targeting as well as inflation targeting. However, the welfare gain from responding to unemployment fluctuations diminishes as the rate of exchange rate pass-through to import prices decreases. With low exchange rate pass-through, the optimal monetary policy is strict inflation targeting.     

Unemployment and Economic Policy in Denmark in the 1930s

Abstract

The paper examines Danish unemployment and the employment policy in the 1930s. The unemployment data indicate that though the unemployment increased dramatically the rate of unemployment remained low. The official Danish unemployment records definitely underestimated the actual unemployment in the early 1930s, but the discrepancy was hardly as big as some scholars have suggested. The paper furthermore points out that the rather atypical rise in the Danish unemployment from the mid-1930s can be attributed to a rise in the natural rate of unemployment due to an improved unemployment insurance coverage and a more comprehensive registration of the unemployment. The second part of the paper deals with the Danish employment policy. Unemployment remained high on the political agenda, but the employment problem never became the main target for the economic policy. An active employment policy was constrained by the problems of the balance of payments and the political disagreements in parliament. While the macroeconomic policy did help to stabilize the economy and the employment, the number of measures directly targeting the labour market was small, and they seldom gave rise to much job creation.     

Labor market fluctuations in the small and in the large

Shimer's calibrated version of the Mortensen–Pissarides model generates unemployment fluctuates much smaller than the data. Hagedorn and Manovskii present an alternative calibration that yields fluctuations consistent with the data, but this has been challenged by Costain and Reiter, who say it generates unrealistically big differences in unemployment from the differences in policy we see across countries. We argue this concern might be unwarranted, because one cannot assume that elasticities relevant for small changes work for large changes. Models with fixed factors in market or household production can generate large effects from small changes and reasonable effects from large changes. This is reminiscent of attempts to improve the labor market in the Kydland–Prescott model, especially ones incorporating household production, like Benhabib, Rogerson, and Wright.     

Towards a welfare model of trade and multinational firms with oligopolistic competition

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model in a world with two-symmetric countries. It explains welfare gains from international trade and horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the economy with firm heterogeneity and variable markups stemming from oligopolistic competition. My model shows that the pro-competitive effects of trade and horizontal FDI happen because trade openness induces an increase in product market competition that reduces markups and toughens selection, increasing aggregate productivity. The most significant contribution of the paper is that multinational firms, via horizontal FDI, produce the most significant welfare gains through the toughest selection and lowest markups.     

Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data

This paper starts from the stylized fact that firm size and exporting tends to be positively related. Using large sets of establishment panel data for three different industries from official statistics, evidence is presented that the familiar picture of an export/sales ratio that increases (at a decreasing rate) with firm size vanishes if unobserved firm heterogeneity is controlled for in a fixed-effects fractional logit regression model. This finding is well in line with the fact that many small firms are “hidden export champions.” JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

失业持续时间与再就业者收入

失业持续时间对再就业者工资的影响不仅是一个重要的理论问题。还具有重要的政策含义。然而，在理论上，失业者失业持续时间对再就业后工资的影响是不确定的，所以确定失业持续时间对再就业后工资的影响是一个实证问题。本文利用国家统计局2003年的调查数据分析了失业持续时间对中国城镇人口再就业后工资的影响，发现失业持续时间每延长10％，再就业后工资就下降0．46-0．55％。     

我国失业保险制度与就业联动机制研究述评

我国的经济体制改革和发展方式转变,尤其是国际金融危机的发生,对我国就业产生了直接影响,并对存在设计缺陷的失业保险制度形成倒逼机制。国内学者对我国失业保险制度与就业联动方面的研究尚处于感性认识的起步阶段。如何在借鉴国外先进经验基础上,使失业保险制度由保障功能为主转向促进就业和预防失业,建立适合我国国情的失业保险制度与就业联动机制,仍任重而道远。     

Reconciling Output and Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a macroeconomic model that can simultaneously explain output and unemployment multipliers which are consistent with empirical evidence. To this end, this paper has merged and investigated a model with deep habit formation in private and public consumptions and a model with a labour market friction that generates involuntary unemployment stemming from the monopolistic power of differentiated labour services. The model with a baseline calibration seems to produce quantitatively plausible responses of key macroeconomic variables in response to a government expenditure shock.     

新中国60年失业保险发展的历程及思考

新中国成立以来,我国失业保险的发展历程是曲折的,中间经历了新中国成立初期的失业救济、计划经济时期统包统分的传统就业政策,到20世纪80年代中后期的待业保险制度、下岗职工基本生活保障制度以及现行的失业保险制度的演变过程。重新回顾60年来我国失业保险的发展历程,总结其经验、教训,对我们缓解失业风险、促进就业有着积极的意义。     

失业与市场经济

自改革开放以来,伴随着市场经济体制改革的不断深化,我国出现了严重的失业问题。本文对我国失业形成的原因做了系统性的分析,并据此指出解决我国失业问题的对策。     

中、美贸易摩擦分析和对策研究

近年来中美贸易迅速增长,中美之间的摩擦也不断加剧,本文介绍了中美贸易摩擦的现状,分析了中美贸易摩擦的原因,并提出了减少中美贸易摩擦相应的对策。     

中国失业问题的现状及对策

失业是一个较为普遍的国际性问题,中国在建立社会主义市场经济体制和二元经济结构转换过程中,特别是20世纪90年代后期以来,也出现了严峻的就业压力。文章在深入分析我国失业现状的基础上,认为我们应该根据中国国情,制定促进就业的经济发展战略和积极的就业政策,以有力促进我国     

我国失业现象的原因分析及对策建议

近年来,我国失业率持续攀升已是不争的事实。为了对这一问题进行深入研究,文章从现存失业问题分析入手,探讨产生失业问题的根源,即经济体制转轨、经济结构调整和农村剩余劳动力转移等。根据这些原因,文章从失业预防和失业补救两方面提出了解决失业问题的建议。     

公司业绩与财务杠杆

本文从实证角度分析了我国上市公司的财务杠杆对公司业绩的影响。结果表明,往年财务杠杆和当年财务杠杆对当年公司业绩的影响截然相反。财务杠杆对公司的息税后收益和息税前收益均有影响。长期负债率和长期借款率对公司业绩的影响分别比同年的流动负债率和短期借款率对公司业     

Unemployment, Poverty and Income Disparity in Urban China

This paper studies the issues of unemployment and poverty that have been appearing recently in urban China. It estimates the urban unemployment rate, poverty rate and income disparity using a new sample survey data set. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between unemployment and poverty, and the effects of poverty on urban inequality. The main findings are that: (i) the urban unemployment rate reached 11.6% in 1999 and was a major cause of urban poverty; (ii) growing urban poverty is becoming the significant source of worsening urban inequality; and (iii) migrant households have an increasing influence on urban poverty and the pattern of urban income distribution. The paper concludes that urban income distribution has worsened since 1995, and urban unemployment and poverty are the major factors in this worsening.     

Appropriation,firm dynamics,and wage inequality

This paper examines the income distribution and welfare effects of appropriation activities in an economy. In the short run, with a given number of firms, appropriation can narrow wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor when the capital resources accrued by appropriators are not large. However, wage inequality widens when the capital accrued is large. In the long run, with free entry and exit of firms, an increase in appropriation can cause firms to enter when the accrued capital is not large. This gives rise to a win–win outcome by raising the wages of skilled and unskilled labor. However, if accrued capital is large, firms exit and a lose–lose situation may occur in which skilled and unskilled wages are reduced.     

我国目前失业的社会流动阻滞

失业的社会流动阻滞在于社会流动的规模不大、制度约束性太强、方向不太合理和理念滞后。因此。要构建合理的再就业社会流动机制，必须大力发展经济，尽快推进制度改革．积极转变就业观念，尽快建立劳动力自由流动机制。