中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响.在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况.在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测.由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大;加15年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降.     

基于GDP增长条件下的中国劳动力供需差异分析

本研究首先通过建立经济增长长期预测模型,同时结合劳动生产率预测给出了中国2015年-2050年分三次产业的劳动力需求数量;其次,利用反映生育政策变化的人口预测模型预测了中国未来各年劳动力年龄人口的数量和结构,并结合劳动参与率预测,给出了中国2015年-2050年的劳动力供给数量;最后,给出了中国未来的劳动力供求差异以及变化趋势。     

战后美国居民住房消费变化及其发展趋势

自二战结束以来,购置房产不仅成为居民积累财富的重要方式,同时也是拉动美国经济增长的动力之一。受居民收入增长、人口结构变化、信贷扩张及财富效应的影响,美国居民住房消费支出明显上升。本文旨在通过对不同群体的考察,揭示战后以来居民住房消费的变化特征,并对2008年金融危机爆发后美国居民住房消费变化及其发展趋势进行预测分析。     

完善新时代下保障性住房体系:意义、问题与政策措施

<正>目前,我国正处于新型城镇化建设和人口结构变化关键时期,城镇家庭户总数中还有约30%左右应纳入住房保障范围,这表明着我国仍有6000万个家庭急需社会提供保障住房。但截止至2017年底,我国保障性住房也仅解决2200万户家庭的住房所需,住房市场的供需失衡导致我国住房保障缺口至少在3800万套     

城镇居民住房统计指标探讨

<正> 近几年来,随着我国经济实力的增长和人民生活水平的不断提高,住宅建设取得了巨大成就,反映城镇居民住房面积的指标也受到关注。当前城镇居民的住房水平究竟是怎么样的?现有住房统计指标能否全面、准确地反映居民住房水平?是大家十分关心的问题,本文就此作一探讨。 一、人均居住面积反映居民住房情况存在严重缺陷 由于居住面积是住房建筑面积中的重要部分,居住面积的增加,直接关系到居民居住条件的改善。因此,长期以来全国统计系统一直以人均居住面     

林区农户信贷需求影响因素分析——以小王涧国有生态林场为例

通过对小王涧林场辖区农户的问卷调查数据,实证分析了林区农户信贷需求的影响因素。研究结果表明,户主年龄与林区农户信贷需求规模正相关,家庭总收入水平与林区农户信贷需求规模负相关;而户主受教育程度、家庭人口规模、自有林地数量对农户信贷需求没有显著影响。     

城镇住房需求动力因素分析

一般认为,推动房价上涨的主要因素是市场需求的增加。本文利用数学模型分析决定住房需求的因素,计算出了人均最佳住房面积,并提出了按家庭结构比例提供住房的方案。     

商品住宅开发与人口分析

商品住宅开发与人口分析黄晨熹（华东师范大学人口研究所硕士生）商品住宅主要包括普通居民住宅、高级公寓、花园别墅三类，它的需求主体是个人或家庭。由于不同的人口有不同的住房偏好与需求，因而不同的人口状况对商品住宅的选址、投资规模及住房规格与类型的要求与影响...     

基于人均GDP的上海房地需求分析

目前上海市房地产需求处于数量和质量并重的发展阶段，本文以上海市人均GDP为基础，采用上海市1985—2003年的历史数据，建立了上海市人均住房面积与人均GDP的回归模型，利用这一回归模型对上海市2020年前的主要年份住房需求进行了预测。     

北京市的人口迁移与住房需求关系探究

近十几年北京等特大城市的房价一涨再涨,其背后原因错综复杂,其中大量的人口迁移成为关注焦点,但人口迁移不单单引起人口数量变大,更有人口年龄结构年轻化,和迁移人口家庭户规模等变化。这些因素综合起来影响住房需求,从而影响房价波动。     

Gross national accumulation

Low birth rates, longevity, family disintegration, and other factors have reduced the size of the average household. At the same time household size is shrinking, new housing offers twice the floor space per occupant of old housing. Small households are inefficient users of space, utilities, furniture, and equipment. As these factors converge, the result is over consumption of durables and vast stockpiles of possessions just awaiting disposal when the baby boom generation passes on. The rightful heirs to these possessions are themselves accumulators, and will most likely have little use for what is left to them. What does the future hold for consumption, savings, and demand for housing? Booming flea markets, bigger homes as warehouses, a decline in consumption, or an epidemic of display and collection? Public policies have limited leverage on private behavior.     

Residential energy behaviour: does generation matter?

In this study we tested the relevance of the generational hypothesis, that is, whether the era in which household members grew up matters when understanding and predicting their behaviour, on a sample of 600 Swedish households. These households participated in a survey where they answered questions about their own energy‐related residential energy behaviour. The answers were analysed for differences between age groups, between different attitudes to environmental issues, between income levels and between dwelling types. The results showed that age was as good an indicator as the other parameters. In several areas, older households had a more energy‐efficient residential behaviour than younger ones. Examples are laundry practices and indoor heat regulation. According to the generational hypothesis, this finding implies higher energy use in the future. The study also shows that there is a broad scope for improving residential energy behaviour in Swedish society by implementing changes in laundry avoiding practices, dishwashing behaviour and indoor temperature regulation.     

Öffentliche Wohnraumförderung — auf dem richtigen Weg?

In Germany, in times of extreme low interest rates there is a boom in housing construction, housing demand and housing prices. In order to relieve the housing market, the Federal Government is planning to expand the funding for social housing considerably. Affordable housing has been decreasing in German metropolitan areas in recent years, the same applies to social housing. Meanwhile, the demand for dwellings in the lower and middle price segment is rising, partly due to an increased migration rate. This is why a strong social housing promotion needs to be combined with an effective direct subsidy, such as a dynamic housing allowance. However, the targeting of social housing is highly inaccurate. Thus, it would be better to strengthen housing allowances and to help lowincome households to purchase homes in order to reduce living costs. Nowadays, property credits stabilize the banking sector. However, just a small increase in interest rates could result in a new financial crash. Ever since their foundation, housing cooperatives have created affordable private dwellings and a safe living place for their members. They are able to produce not only tenants but owners of the dwellings. Thus public assistance schemes and subsidies should not exclude housing cooperatives.     

Formal Employment and Informal Work in Household Services

This article discusses whether employment increases are likely in household services. The conclusion is that until recently, employment increased due to a shift of service work from households to the formal economy (especially the public sector). The growing number of childless or single parent households means a growing demand for services from the formal economy. Still, it seems likely that the service employment growth will slow down and be substituted by work in the informal economy, due to the cost increases in the formal economy connected with low productivity growth in service activities.     

Analysis of tenure choice and housing expenditure patterns

This study employs a selectivity model to account for the simultaneity existing between determinations of tenure status and level of spending. Important socio-economic characteristics affecting housing tenure were identified. Results indicate that income had a more important effect on the housing expenditures of renters than owners at a lower household income level. The race of the household head had a significant effect on variations in housing expenditures for owners but not for renters, suggesting that race may be a more important factor in owner-occupant than in renter-occupant housing. While household size may be an important factor in a family's decision-making in terms of buying a home, it is suggested that once tenure status is selected family size had no significant impacts on housing expenditures. Similarly, married couples were most likely to own their own homes than were other household types; however, married households did not spend more or less than other types of households on either owned or rented accommodation. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that in assessing empirical results, attention should be given to meaningful interpretation of estimated selectivity effects as well as to testing for occurrence of selectivity bias.     

International comparison of household asset allocation: Micro-evidence from cross-country comparisons

Asset allocation, an important part of household finance, attracts constant attention across countries. Due to the differences between countries, asset allocation presents different characteristics in various countries. This paper compares and analyzes the differences in household asset allocation around the world based on the data of 23 developing and developed countries, such as China, the United States, 20 EU countries, and Australia, at the micro-level. This paper finds that in all of these countries, except for the United States, housing assets often occupy a large proportion of household total assets, which we give the name ‘Valuing Housing’, mainly attributed to the high housing value-to-income ratios (especially in developing countries). Further analysis shows that, with the increase in household income, the proportion of housing assets in most countries presents an inverted ‘U' shape, which first increases and then decreases, and where the inflection point appears in the top 20% of households. Also, with increases in income, China, the United States, and some other countries see an increasing proportion of financial assets. The top 20% of households tend to invest in financial assets. In addition, as the ages of household heads increase, the proportion of housing assets tends to first rise and then level off, and that of financial assets tends to first decrease and then level off. The conclusions of this paper help to better understand the differences in the allocation of household assets across countries and explain the underlying causes.     

Constraints,Domain Conditions,and Well-Being: Evidence from Poland during the Transformation

The relationships among the recent changes in socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the household, domain conditions (objective well-being), and the household members' assessment of their situation (subjective well-being) are assessed with data from 600 households in the province of Lublin, Poland. Four domains are included in the measures of recent change, domain conditions, and well-being: housing, household equipment, food consumption, and transportation. As expected, domain conditions are a function of household constraints; well-being is a function of domain conditions and recent change. Rural residents have significantly poorer domain conditions than urban residents, but report significantly higher levels of well-being.     

Sources of inequality in the Philippines: Insights from stochastic dominance tests for richness and poorness

New stochastic dominance (SD) tests of richness and poorness are applied to income and expenditure distributions in the Philippines to measure relative welfare levels and investigate sources of inequality from 2000 to 2012. We successfully demonstrate that welfare analyses based on ascending and descending SD principles offer a stronger characterisation of changing levels of welfare in a population than what could be obtained using standard SD approach alone. Empirically, our results show that large improvements in relative welfare over time in the Philippines favoured older and female-headed households, mainly in the urban areas. Further, female headship and more years in education promoted higher welfare within and among the population groups. On the other hand, the growth of remittance incomes may have caused the greater imbalance in the distributions found in more recent years. Analysis by age groups meanwhile showed that over time, there are increasing concentrations of poorer households among the youngest cohort (30 and under), at the same time that there are also increasing concentrations of richer households among the over 60s. The combined impact of these factors provides a viable explanation as to why the gap between the rich and the poor has remained high in the Philippines for a very long time now.     

地区竞争、土地供给结构与中国城市住房价格

为了分析地区竞争下地方政府间土地供给结构的策略互动及其对住房价格的影响,本文在归纳梳理中国土地供应法规特征的基础上,构建一个同时考虑居住用地需求和工业用地需求的两城市模型,探讨地方政府干预土地供给结构的动机及其经济后果,并基于2006—2015年城市面板数据对提出的理论假说进行检验。研究发现,在城市建设用地总量受约束的条件下,地方政府有激励以减少居住用地为代价提高工业用地供给,进行招商引资竞争;与市场起主导作用的情形相比,地方政府干预土地供给结构时,工业用地的供应量更高,居住用地的供应量则偏低,工业地价与居住用地的价格差异增大;地方政府对土地供给结构的干预,从供给和需求两方面共同推高了房价。此外,地方政府干预土地供给结构会影响到相邻地区的供地策略。研究对加快推进房地产市场长效机制改革、从供给侧解决高房价问题具有启示意义。     

Spatial behaviour of rural consumer households in highly developed economies. Survey results for Western Germany

This contribution attempts to identify effects of residential location of rural family households on their economic behaviour. Economic behaviour is understood to be reflected in the total spectrum of income and allocation of household resources. A holistic approach must go beyond activity on the labour and consumer markets and include non-market (‘informal’) activities of household members, taking into account domestic production of goods and services, interaction within social networks, the use of public commercial infrastructure, etc. The cost of living depends, among other things, on patterns of consumption, on regional price levels for consumer breadbaskets, as well as on costs involved in reaching public and commercial points of distribution. These factors result themselves from the interplay of economic forces giving rise to identifiable ‘economic territories’ and ‘market areas’ and ultimately to observable consumptive behaviour and ‘activity spaces’ of individual private households. Since data was available only for our rural survey households, comparative analysis of locational aspects was limited to consumption expenditures for which data could be found in administrative statistics for households in urban and periurban areas. The rural survey sample was found to have a higher average level and a different structure of expenditures when compared with their non-rural counterparts. At the same time, a preliminary effort was made in our own rural survey sample to determine the importance of non-market consumption for rural households. This included household consumption of domestic self-services (‘housework’), the utility value of owner-occupied dwellings, do-it-yourself production of substitutes for commercial goods and services, and exchanges within social networks. Results of this initial investigation of non-market elements of the household economy indicated that they were very important for the household's level-of-living and that they had a potential for compensating inequalities due to different degrees of access to market resources. Household strategies for optimizing their resource allocation to both market and non-market consumption were also examined. In general, ‘objective’ criteria and ‘subjective’ assessments by the survey households with respect to living conditions in rural Western Germany were found to give a positive image of rural life; however, differences in resource allocation strategies for market consumption between urban and rural households having been confirmed above, the question remains for future research about possible locational differences in household acquisition and use of non-market resources.