Globalization and imperfect labor market sorting

This paper focuses on the ability of the labor market to efficiently match heterogeneous workers to jobs within a given industry and the role that globalization plays in that process. Using matched worker–firm data from Sweden, we find strong evidence that openness improves the matching between workers and firms in industries with greater comparative advantage. This suggests that there may be significant gains from globalization that have not been identified in the past — globalization may improve the efficiency of the matching process in the labor market. These results remain unchanged after adding controls for technical change at the industry level or measures of domestic anti-competitive regulations and product market competition. Our results are also robust to alternative measures of the degree of matching, openness, and the trade status of an industry.     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.     

The influence of changing trade patterns on displacements of labor

Although there is extensive literature detailing the change in industrial employment resulting from changes in trading patterns, there is no significant literature that translates these changes in labor demand to actual worker hardship. This study provides evidence of the labor market effects of changes in import and export competition throughout the 1980s by focusing on the level of industry displacements, workers involuntarily separated from their industry of employment, rather than changes in the level of industry employment. The results therefore shed light on the number of workers who were measurably injured by changing trade patterns.

The analysis is based on a general equilibrium specification that yields an equation describing the influence of specific industry measures of competitiveness, along with changes in the aggregate environment, on displacements. This equation is subsequently estimated using import and export transactions prices maintained by the U.S. Department of Labor in conjunction with data from a series of Displaced Workers Surveys. Counterfactual analysis provides an estimate of the number of displacements resulting from changes in international competitiveness. These counterfactuals reveal that, overall, changes in the competitive position of the United States reduced the number of workers dislocated throughout the 1980s.     

Wage Effects of Trade Reform with Endogenous Worker Mobility

In this paper, we use a linked employer–employee database from Brazil to evaluate the wage effects of trade reform. With an aggregate (firm-level) analysis of this question, we find that a decline in trade protection is associated with an increase in average wages in exporting firms relative to domestic firms, consistent with earlier studies. However, using disaggregated, employer–employee level data, and allowing for the endogenous assignment of workers to firms due to match-specific productivity, we find that the premium paid to workers at exporting firms is economically and statistically insignificant, as is the differential impact of trade openness on the wages of workers at exporting firms relative to otherwise identical workers at domestic firms. We also find that workforce composition improves systematically in exporting firms, in terms of the combination of worker ability and the quality of worker–firm matches, post-liberalization. These results stand in stark contrast to the findings reported in many earlier studies and underscore the importance of endogenous matching and, more generally, non-random labor market allocation mechanisms, in determining the effects of trade policy changes on wages.     

Persistent real exchange rates

Over the past decades, product market deregulation has typically preceded labor market reforms in OECD countries. This paper incorporates labor market rigidities in a model of footloose capital in order to study how globalization might affect the trade-offs generated by labor market regulation and put pressure on labor market institutions. In this two-sector model, globalization ultimately reduces labor market rigidities through either one of two channels: capital mobility triggers a re-allocation of resources, which trade integration amplifies, away from the high-rent / highly-unionized sector; the threat of costly relocations encourages labor market deregulation. The latter channel is more efficient because it avoids sub-optimal sectoral specialization.     

出口贸易、收入波动与高学历劳动力集聚——基于我国行业面板数据的实证研究

本文采用最终商品分类法,在手工计算获得我国分行业出口贸易额数据的基础上,基于2004-2010年行业收入波动、劳动力受教育程度和就业比重的统计数据,采用面板系统GMM模型研究了出口贸易和收入波动对高学历劳动力集聚的影响。检验结果显示:出口贸易规模的提高和行业收入波动的降低会显著促进高学历劳动力向该行业集聚;劳动力受教育程度越高,行业开放程度和收入的稳定性对其就业选择的影响越大,而当期收入的绝对水平对其就业选择的影响越小。     

农民工就业市场的经济学分析

中国城市劳动力市场分为首属劳动力市场和次属劳动力市场,由于多种原因,农民工不可避免地成为次属、非正规劳动力市场的主体,而且这种现象将长期存在。对劳动力市场各个不同主体和交易环节进行分析,认为看似不合理的经济行为却是各自在其约束条件下的理性选择,因此,在我国建立统一、全面的劳动力市场不是一蹴而就的,而是一个循序渐进的过程,需要对农民工群体因势利导。次属的、非正规劳动力市场虽然存在种种不规范行为,但未来长期的一段时间依然是正规劳动力市场的有益补充。     

Differentiation,labor market and globalization

We consider two countries with initially one firm in each country and the possibility for each firm to invest in the other country or commercialize its products, and for workers to immigrate (Common Labor Market; CLM). Interestingly, when firms compete on the product market with no competition on the labor market (Goods’ Mobility; GM), they do not differentiate their qualities. However, when competition is introduced in both markets (Foreign Investment; FI) firms differentiate their products. We compare the globalization scenarii and prove that they improve the global social welfare relative to autarky and that a cooperative choice by countries of a globalization scenario would lead to GM.     

农业外资区位分布影响因素的实证研究——以江苏省为例

本文以江苏省为例,采用面板数据模型考察了2002-2007年农业外国直接投资区位的分布情况。研究发现,上一年农业外国直接投资存量、农业总产值、城市在岗职工工资、农民纯收入、耕地面积、农业机械总动力、城市外国直接投资总量、上海市的辐射距离以及城市是否沿江沿海对农业外国直接投资的区位选择非常重要,而人均地区总产值、农业从业人员数目、教育、城市交通基础设施及水资源总量等对外国直接投资区位分布的影响都不显著。     

基于全球价值链的产业升级与金融支持问题研究——以我国第二产业为例

以我国第二产业为例,运用各地2000年到2009年的面板数据探讨并实证检验了在全球价值链分工条件下的产业升级和金融支持之间的关系。研究结果表明,资本市场的发展对我国第二产业的升级具有显著的促进作用,而信贷市场的发展和我国第二产业的升级之间仅存在较为微弱的负相关关系。此外,政府引导在我国第二产业的升级进程中发挥了较为重要的作用。     

我国发展国际服务外包的现状分析及对策研究

随着经济全球化和信息技术革命的深入,国际服务外包日益成为企业提高核心竞争力的战略选择,新一轮服务业产业转移在世界范围内推进,不断改变着国际分工格局。我国企业在承接服务外包业务过程中存在着业务水平低、外包市场单一、缺乏质量意识、缺乏服务外包人才等问题。为促进我国服务外包业健康发展,应巩固提高日韩市场,开拓美欧市场,增强外包企业实力,加强服务外包人才的培养。     

FDI对我国高新技术产业技术溢出效应分析

本文借助C-D函数,实证并分析了FDI对我国高新技术产业内资企业产出、自主创新能力、新产品开发的影响。研究表明,外资通过竞争效应、人员流动效应、示范效应以及产业关联效应等带动高新技术内资企业劳动生产率提高,从而促进内资高新技术企业产出总量增加;但较大的内外资企业的技术差距和较弱的技术消化吸收能力抑制了FDI对航空航天器制造业自主创新能力的提升;较高的外资企业市场集中度和市场开放度,不利于电子及通信设备制造业以及电子计算机及办公设备制造业新产品市场开发。文章据此探讨了相应的对策建议,以期为高新技术产业更好地利用外资提供有益的思路。     

产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。     

The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's “Normal Retirement Age”

This paper identifies and analyzes an inherent conflict between some proposed U. S. Social Security reform measures, which would encourage delayed retirement decisions, and the objective of minimizing the economy's unemployment rate. Using recent demographic trends in the age composition of the U.S. labor force, the study suggests that such proposed U.S. Social Security reform measures may actually increase the economy's unemployment rate. It concludes that measures to encourage older workers would relieve labor market pressures (while also helping the Social Security system) if and only if unemployment was persistently near the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). However, in an economy with above NAIRU unemployment, which has been the case most often in recent years, the opposite Social Security policy logic would apply. JEL Classification H557     

能源冲击对中国部门间劳动力市场需求结构的影响

本文在可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的基础上,结合2007年社会核算矩阵(SAM),模拟了国际能源冲击下中国宏观经济活动以及微观劳动力市场的变动情况,同时具体分析了能源冲击对部门间劳动力市场需求结构的影响和传导机制。研究发现,在面对能源冲击时,不同部门的劳动力需求变化也各不相同,制造业、农林牧渔业等劳动力密集型部门倾向于提供更多的劳动岗位,并且这些岗位主要是面向对能源有较强替代性的技术工人,而其余大部分部门则倾向于缩减劳动岗位的供应;在收入方面,随着能源价格上涨,各类工人收入都会出现不同程度的下降,其中以技术工人降幅最大,产业工人次之,而农业工人的收入在能源价格上涨到一定程度后会出现上升。     

Good jobs, bad jobs, and trade liberalization

How do labor markets adjust to trade liberalization? Leading models of intraindustry trade (Krugman (1981), Melitz (2003)) assume homogeneous workers and full employment, and thus predict that all workers win from trade liberalization, a conclusion at odds with the public debate. Our paper develops a new model that merges Melitz (2003) with Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), so also links product market churning to labor market churning. Workers care about their jobs because the model features aggregate unemployment and jobs that pay different wages to identical workers. Simulations show that, for reasonable parameter values, as many as one-fourth of existing “good jobs” (those with above average wage) may be destroyed in a liberalization. This is true even as the model shows minimal impact on aggregate unemployment and quite substantial aggregate gains from trade.     

Globalization and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This article investigates how globalization affects economic growth in developing countries. We use a dynamic growth model with data from 42 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, covering the period from 1980 to 2012. The evidence indicates an inverted U curve type response, robust to changes in globalization measures and to alternative model specifications. Our findings are promising and support the view that the relationship between globalization and economic growth is not linear for SSA. Accordingly, SSA countries have control of trade openness, particularly for the import level of consumption goods to boost their economic growth through international trade.     

Labor market institutions,firm-specific skills,and trade patterns

This paper studies how a country's labor market institutions, by affecting workers' skill acquisition, can shape its export patterns. I develop an open-economy model in which workers undertake non-contractible activities to acquire firm-specific skills on the job. In the model, labor market protection raises workers' incentives to acquire firm-specific skills relative to general skills, turning labor laws into a source of comparative advantage. In particular, the model shows that countries with more protective labor laws export relatively more in firm-specific skill-intensive sectors at both the intensive and extensive margins. To test the theoretical predictions, I construct sector proxies for the firm-specific and industry-specific skill intensity by estimating returns to firm tenure and industry tenure for different U.S. manufacturing sectors during the 1974–1993 period. By estimating sector-level gravity equations for 84 countries using the Helpman–Melitz–Rubinstein (2008) framework, I find evidence supporting the predicted effects of labor market institutions at both margins of exports.     

市场开放度、劳动生产率与我国地区工资差异

以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为基础,实证分析了我国西部大开发以来市场开放度、劳动生产率与地区工资差异之间的关系,结果表明,从全国角度来看,市场开放度和人力资本的增加对工资增长的贡献效应很显著,劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加虽然对工资增长的贡献效应为正,但其效果并不明显;分东、中、西地区来看,市场开放度增加对工资增长的贡献,东部高于中部,更高于西部;人力资本的贡献效应则恰好与之相反;劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加对工资增长的贡献效应在不同地区的差别并不明显。     

Globalization and firm level adjustment with imperfect labor markets

In a model with search generated unemployment and heterogeneity on both sides of the labor market, exporting firms are bigger and pay higher wages than other firms. Moreover, there is imperfect persistence in the decision to export and liberalization increases the wage gap between high- and low-skill workers. Openness can increase aggregate productivity in export-oriented markets while generating within-firm productivity losses for the weakest firms. In contrast, openness can lead to within-firm productivity gains for the weakest firms in import-competing industries.