对提高农行个人金融业务核心竞争力的思考

个人金融业务是农行的主要零售业务,是入世后中外银行竞争的焦点和热点。鉴于我国个人金融业务领域巨大的市场空间,个人金融业务领域已成为入世后外资银行最先进入的抢手领域。作为点多面广最具个人零售业务优势的农业银行如何尽快提高个人金融业务的核心竞争力,是关系当前农行生存与发展的重要课题。一、农行个人金融业务核心竞争力不足的原因解剖(一)体制不顺,制约了农行个人金融业务核心竞争力的发挥。一是机构组织体系缺乏活力,使多级管理行远离市场。虽然近几年农行进行了一些机构改革,但经营管理职能却没有发生根本性的变化,理论上是统一管理、分级经营,逐步建立以二级分行为基本核算单位,将支行建成金融业务分销中心,实际上相对个人金融业务而言,却是四级管理、一级经营,即总行、一级分行、二级分行、支行四级管理,分理     

农业银行个人业务的拓展方略

分析农业银行个人金融业务的发展历程与当今经济金融全球一体化条件下的现代商业银行个人金融业务发展趋势,我们认为,今后几年农业银行个人金融业务发展的基本思路是:因地制宜,采取有效措施,积极落实《中国农业银行个人业务发展行动计划》,以金融创新为动力,以全面营销、引导需求、抢占市场、抢占高价值客户为手段,以提高整体经营效益为目标,大力发展具有农行特色、竞争力强的“消费者银行”业务,不断丰富个人负债业务内涵,努力提高个人资产业务的经营管理水平,积极培育中间业务,有效发展个人综合理财业务,适时转变个人银行业务的经营管理模…     

对农业银行个人业务发展的思考

面对个人金融业务蕴藏的巨大市场能量和潜力,各家商业银行都在竞相发展个人业务。农业银行顺势而为,提出了"把农行办成国内个人业务市场份额最大的商业银行"的战略目标。然而,当前个人业务发展过程中存在一些问题影响和制约农行个人业务快速、健康发展。如果正视这些问题并选择适合农行自身特点的个人业务发展路子,对于做大个人业务至关重要。本文就此谈点粗浅看法。一、当前个人业务发展过程中存在的问题(一)个人业务发展战略选择错位。虽然农业银行提出了"把农行办成国内具人业务市场份额最大的商业银行"的战略     

农行应加快个人金融业务转型

个人金融业务的创新发展是银行业快速繁荣的重要标志。目前,国内银行个人金融业务正沿着世界发达银行个人金融业务发展轨迹,由传统的存贷业务逐步转向综合理财业务。在农业银行正在实施股份制改革,并确立了"面向‘三农’、商业运作"市场定位的新形势下,农行应加快个人金融业务转型,提高个人金融业务的市场竞争力,创造更多的经济价值。     

拓展个人金融精力之研究

个人金融业务以其批量大、风险低、业务范围广、经营收入稳定的特点，日益成为国内商业银行业务创新和业务竞争的热点。面对个人金融业务蕴藏的巨大市场潜力，农业银行如何发挥自身优势，实现总行提出的“把农行办成国内个人金融业务市场份额最大商业银行”的目标，是当前摆在各级行领导面前的突出课题。     

进一步巩固和拓展湖北农行城市金融业务的调研报告

农业银行城市金融业务(本文所指城市金融业务均未包括县及县级市支行业务,县及县级市支行业务将作为农村金融业务进行研究)是近几年在向商业银行转轨过程中逐步探索发展壮大起来的。农业银行城市金融业务的迅速崛起与发展,对改变农行形象,促使农行在区位上实现战略性转移,以及加快改革与发展步伐上发挥了举足轻重的作用。然而,值得注意的是,在农行城市金融业务发展中也隐藏着许多问题。为了客观地评价和分析近几年湖北农行城市金融业务的发展现状,我们于最近组织专门力量对湖北农行近几年城市金融业务的发展状况进行了专题调查,并就如何进一步巩同和拓展湖北农行的城市金融业务提出了看法。一、湖北农行近几年城市金融业务发展的主要成绩、经验和问题     

拓展个人金融业务之研究

个人金融业务以其批量大、风险低、业务范围广、经营收入稳定的特点,日益成为国内商业银行业务创新和业务竞争的热点.面对个人金融业务蕴藏的巨大市场潜力,农业银行如何发挥自身优势,实现总行提出的"把农行办成国内个人金融业务市场份额最大商业银行"的目标,是当前摆在各级行领导面前的突出课题.     

进一步巩固和拓展农行城市金融业务的研究

进一步巩固和拓展农行城市金融业务的研究农业银行湖北省分行课题组农业银行城市金融业务（本文所指城市金融业务均未包括县及县级市支行业务）是近几年在向商业银行转轨过程中逐步探索发展壮大起来的。农业银行城市金融业务的迅速崛起与发展，对改变农行形象，促使农行在...     

如何加快发展个人金融业务

近年来,个人金融业务因其产品丰富、覆盖面广、综合收益较高等特点,越来越受到各商业银行的重视,有的银行提出了"大个金"发展规划,有的银行制定了个人业务优先发展的战略,农业银行自上而下也将发展个人金融业务提到了前所未有的高度。县级农行直接面向市场,服务客户,在发展个人金融业务中起着至关重要     

从县域农行个人贷款结构分析谈个人金融业务的发展措施

随着我国民营个体经济的不断发展,个人金融业务的需求也迅速增长,并已成为商业银行的主要表内业务之一,但在县域农行的部分基层营业网点,对个人业务的发展没有引起足够的重视和关注,在对具体业务的实施中也存在一些问题,本文对县域农行个人贷款业务进行结构性分析,着重探讨个人金融业务的市场定位和发展措施,确保个人金融业务能够持续、稳定、健康的发展.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.