Private property and Mennonites are major drivers of forest cover loss in central Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

The role of land tenure and Mennonites as drivers of deforestation in the Central Yucatan Peninsula has not been empirically assessed. We evaluate different drivers and their relationship to forest cover change between 1986 and 2015 and assess how land tenure and Mennonite communities impact forest cover loss in the Municipality of Hopelchen, Campeche, Mexico. This study shows that forest cover loss has increased in the last decade (2005–2015), and that land tenure regime type is associated with this loss. Throughout the study period, statistical comparisons show rates of forest cover loss were significantly higher in private and federal property compared to forests in ejidos (communal property). Forest cover loss in Mennonite private property was also significantly higher than in non-Mennonite owned private property. The role of land tenure and the expansion of the agroindustrial production model as major drivers of forest cover loss in the region provide important insight into developing municipal land use plans and conservation strategies to reduce deforestation. Programs, incentives and policy directed towards forest conservation in the region that typically target ejido communities, will need to consider the growing trend of private property expansion within federal lands and work more closely with private property owners including Mennonite communities if deforestation reduction programs are to be successful.     

Identifying deforestation attractors and patterns of fragmentation for seasonally dry tropical forest in central Veracruz,Mexico

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are exposed to numerous threats stemming from human activity and are considered a high conservation priority globally. Nevertheless, planning the conservation, management, and restoration of forests requires a detailed regional understanding of current forest distribution, and patterns and attractors of deforestation. We explored SDTF cover in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, where little is known about this type of forest since it was erroneously considered to have been eliminated and thus has not be included in recent conservation planning in Mexico. A time-series of land use and land cover (LULC) maps, based on Landsat imagery from 1973 (MSS), 1990 (TM), and 2000 (ETM+), was used to analyze historical patterns of deforestation and fragmentation of SDTF in a priority watershed in central Veracruz. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main attractors of forest loss. Maps based on higher resolution SPOT imagery (2007–2008) were used to determine the current extent of SDTF. Results from our LULC analysis revealed landscapes that were consistently dominated (>50%) by some combination of intensified land use including cattle pastures, rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands, with closed SDTF cover fluctuating from 11.3 to 9.26% during the study period (1973–2007). Annualized rates of forest loss between Landsat images (1973 vs. 2000; −2.02%) and between Landsat and SPOT images (1973 vs. 2007; −0.59), were moderate to low, with historical records suggesting that most deforestation occurred more than a century ago before the Mexican revolution. Nevertheless, rates of forest loss varied considerable between different time periods, with slight reforestation initially (1.55%; 1973–1990), followed by a marked decline (−8.08%; 1990–2000), and finally a noticeable increases in forest cover (4.92%; 2000–2007) that corresponds with changes in public policy and trends in population migration. The number of forest patches tripled between 1973 and 2000 and the mean forest patch area decreased almost 80% over the same time period. Logistic regression analysis (1973–2000) indicated that the main attractors of closed forest transformation were proximity to gentle slopes, cattle pastures, and the hydraulic infrastructure needed for crop irrigation. Although SDTF is highly fragmented and perturbed, important remnants of this diverse native forest still persists in the region. Our findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and restoration efforts.     

Land tenure, population pressure, and deforestation in Haiti: The case of Forêt des Pins Reserve

Haiti, with a forest cover estimated at 3% of all land area, has experienced severe degradation of its natural resources and a significant change in its land cover. While deforestation in Haiti is obviously multifaceted, one issue emerges from previous empirical analysis in explaining deforestation: land tenure. This study focuses on the causes of deforestation in Haiti, particularly in Forêt des Pins Reserve, using the annual average area of cleared forest per household as the dependent variable. Data were collected with the use of a survey instrument administered to 243 farm households in 15 villages inside the Reserve. Tobit Regression results reveal that household size, education of head of the household, land tenure regime, and farm labor are important factors affecting land clearing.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Underlying and proximate driving causes of land use change in district Swat,Pakistan

Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, and land use and land cover changes have accelerated destructive processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The paper aims to (1) find proximate and underlying causes of land use and land cover changes; (2) analyse the drivers of change; and (3) reflect on the role of governance and policy.We used land use maps for the years 1968 and 2007 to highlight the extent and type of land use changes, and household surveys and expert interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data for detecting and analysing the drivers of change.Results of household surveys and expert interviews show that technological and environmental factors, accessibility and proximity to local markets, immense use of firewood, conflicting property rights and other institutional weaknesses, and over-grazing of alpine pastures were the main driving forces for agriculture expansion and deforestation.Given the present governance structure of forest management in Pakistan a multi-sectoral and multi-scale framework is required to conserve the Swat's natural landscape and associated ecosystem services. A carefully crafted reform programme is required to clarify and assign unambiguous property rights, provisions for communal management and market-based incentives, depending on the social, economic, and ecological characteristics of the different zones under consideration. Only with such policies in place can the current rapid rate of deforestation be avoided and sustainable natural resources use be ensured.     

Examining the relationship between migration and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010

This project examines the relationship between migration, population, and economic processes, and forest cover change in Mexico from 2001 to 2010. Using multiple regression analyses with remotely-sensed, significant (p < 0.10) change in woody vegetation from 2001 to 2010 as our dependent variable, we explore how environmental, migration, demographic, and economic indicators at the national and sub-national biome scales are associated with forest cover change. Results highlight the importance of international migration in forest cover change, demonstrating that international (and internal) migration processes should also be included in LU/CC research and deforestation policy.     

Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region—A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change

Humans have altered land cover for centuries, and land-cover change is a main component of global change. Land use transition trajectories, such as the forest transition theory (i.e. switch from deforestation to stable or increasing forest cover), relate long term changes in land use to gradual changes in underlying drivers, such as economic development, demographic change, and urbanization. However, because only few studies examined land change over centuries, it is not clear how land cover changes during very long time-periods which are punctuated by shifts in socio-economics and policies, such as wars. Our goal here was to examine broad land change patterns and processes, and their main driving forces in Central and Eastern Europe during distinct periods of the past 250 years. We conducted a meta-analysis of 66 publications describing 102 case study locations and quantified the main forest and agricultural changes in the Carpathian region since the 18th century. These studies captured gradual changes since the peak of the Austro-Hungarian Empire up to the accession to the European Union of most of the formerly socialist countries in the study region. Agricultural land-use increased during the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 70% of the case studies, but dropped sharply during and especially after the collapse of the Socialism (over 70% of the cases). The highest rates of abandonment occurred between 1990 and 2000. The Carpathian region experienced forest transition during the Interwar period (93% of the cases), and the forest expansion trend persisted after the collapse of Socialism (70% of the cases). In terms of the drivers, institutional and economic factors were most influential in shaping deforestation and agricultural expansion, while socio-demographics and institutional shifts were the key drivers of land abandonment. Our study highlights the drastic effects that socio-economic and institutional changes can have on land-use and land-cover change, and the value of longitudinal studies of land change to uncover these effects.     

Afforestation in India: Policy and strategy reforms

Although satellite pictures of forest cover in India have shown the severity of deforestation, little has been done to stop the problem. An analysis of the existing situation and possible policy interventions indicates that deforestation will continue if only marginal changes are introduced. Unless comprehensive policy and strategy reforms are implemented, farming capability and soil systems will be irreversibly degraded. There is a need for both drastic structural change and organizational reform in land use mangement for existing land, and a package of measures to recover degraded land and reduce land use conflicts.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Socio-environmental drivers of forest change in rural Uganda

Tropical deforestation and forest degradation are among the top global threats to biodiversity, carbon storage and rural livelihoods, but the social processes underlying these changes remain difficult to observe across large spatial scales and in data-poor contexts such as tropical Africa. We link longitudinal survey data from agricultural households in rural Uganda to high-resolution satellite data on forest cover change, and use this linked dataset to investigate processes at two scales: tree planting and harvesting at the parcel scale, and deforestation and reforestation at the community scale. This multi-scale analysis reveals that tree planting is more common on parcels with secure tenure, by educated heads and in isolated communities. Deforestation is highest in land-rich, agrarian communities with low population density and high baseline forest cover. These results provide explicit evidence that the social drivers of forest change in Uganda vary across scales, indicating a need for additional multi-scale studies.     

Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil's plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO₂ emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon.     

Policy lessons from spatiotemporal enrollment patterns of payment for ecosystem service programs in Argentina

Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km². Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.     

Is Portugal’s forest transition going up in smoke?

The turnarounds from decrease to expansion in forest areas that took place during the last century have been examined through the lens of forest transition theory (FTT). Among temperate and Mediterranean European countries that have seen an expansion of forest cover, Portugal stands out as the only case in which this trend has recently been reverted. In this study, we explicitly map and document the forest transition (FT) in the country over the period 1907–2006, and investigate when and where forest transition happened de facto, and which were the land use transition pathways that resulted from the shrublands, agriculture, and forest interplay dynamics. After thematic and geometric harmonization of land cover maps from 1907, 1955, 1970, 1990, and 2006, a cluster analysis established four typologies, and a transition matrix was constructed to assess land cover dynamics. We found that up to 1955, FT occurred simultaneously with agricultural expansion, as shrubland areas diminished. Afterwards, with the retraction of agricultural area and the consequential decoupling of forest management from local actors, FT gained momentum and expanded up to the 1990s. While during the first half of the 20th century, forest expansion followed the “Scarcity” and “State Policy” pathways fostered by local socio-ecological feedback loops, throughout the second half of the century forest transition was driven by exogenous socio-economic forces, following “Economic Development” and “Globalization” pathways. We show how, despite these forces, FT can be derailed by endogenous factors such as wildfires, which limited and in some areas even reverted the afforestation process, initiating a deforestation phase. Since the necessary conditions for FT (technology shift, urbanization, agriculture retraction and public afforestation programs) were available in mainland Portugal, we advance the hypothesis that critical wildfire risk governance deficits may have been responsible for arresting FT. Considering the critical role of forests and other wooded areas in supporting climate change mitigation and sustainable development, our work provides useful evidence and insights for public decision makers on previously unaddressed dimensions of FTT.     

Drug trafficking,cattle ranching and Land use and Land cover change in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve

Drug trafficking organizations are driving deforestation in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve. Drug traffickers deforest the protected area in order to illegally ranch cattle, which serves as a mechanism of money laundering, drug smuggling, and territory control. Journalists and ethnographers have analyzed “narco-cattle ranching” activities in the reserve and resulting “narco-deforestation,” yet land use change scientists have yet to quantify the contribution of illegal cattle ranching to forest loss. This article uses remote sensing and GIS analysis to distinguish the relative contribution of cattle ranching, farming, and land speculation to reserve deforestation and other forms of land use and land cover change. We also use ethnographic methods to provide evidentiary links between illegal cattle ranching and drug trafficking activities that suggest a large part, but not all, of illegal cattle ranching is narco-capitalized. Our research finds that illegal cattle ranching is responsible for the majority of reserve deforestation, ranging from 59 to 87% of photographs on deforested lands in three sampled areas. We also found illegal cattle ranching activities are the highest in the reserve’s western national parks, which should be strictly protected from land use change. Contrary to popular debate, these findings suggest drug traffickers in the context of the US-led War on Drugs are to blame for forest loss, not subsistence farmers illegally living in the reserve.     

Twenty-three years of forest cover change in protected areas under different governance strategies: A case study from Ethiopia’s southern highlands

Tropical deforestation has heightened the need for effective governance of protected areas aimed at conserving natural resources, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. The southern highlands of Ethiopia hold some of the largest expanses of contiguous tropical forest in Ethiopia. This area also is undergoing rapid land conversion. Multiple protected areas with different management strategies and objectives have been established, in part, to conserve forests and the ecosystem services they provide. We examined four types of protected areas; a national park, a state-run forest enterprise, two occupied privately leased hunting concessions, and two unoccupied hunting concessions, to evaluate their effectiveness at protecting forest cover. We used 1509 field plots with medium-resolution Landsat imagery from 1987 to 2015 to develop models of forest cover at approximately five-year time intervals. We found protected areas that were actively managed for timber production or hunting were more effective at conserving forest cover than the national park and the unoccupied hunting concessions. Over the study period, net forest cover change was −7.8% for the national park, 12.9% for the state-run forest enterprise, −0.2% and 13.3% for the occupied hunting concessions and −14.0% and −13.0% for the unoccupied hunting concessions. We also discuss how the change in forest cover relates to historic political events. In places like Ethiopia where the federal resources needed to conserve forests are limited, promoting a network that includes both federally and non-federally managed protected areas can result in more area and forests under protection.     

“一带一路”典型区土地利用变化热点区判别与其影响因素

目的 土地利用与覆盖变化是监测区域变化的重要方法,而发生剧烈变化的热点区域更是研究的重要部分,有效识别热点区并分析其影响因素可以为保护土地生态环境、有效利用土地资源提供科学支撑。方法 文章利用欧洲航天局（ESA）气候变化倡议的长期时间序列土地覆盖数据集（CCI-LC）对“一带一路”典型区土地利用与覆盖变化进行分析,根据变化面积、相对变化速率及其聚集程度建立了热点区域的识别方法,并分析了影响因素。结果 （1）根据土地覆盖变化结果表明,1992—2020年“一带一路”典型区内总共有5.46%的面积发生了变化,建设用地净增加面积最多,为24.61万km²,相对变化速率在2000—2010年最高,为76.94%。（2）热点识别结果表明,2000—2010年土地覆盖变化最剧烈,不同时期的热点区域内主要的转型特征不同,1992—2000年主要表现为耕地的增加,2000—2010年主要表现为林地和建设用地面积扩张,2010—2020年主要表现为建设用地面积增多和林地的砍伐与恢复。（3）热点区域集中分布在0~200m的海拔范围内,热点区域内的像元数量随海拔升高不断减少。（4）热带多雨气候区域内热点占比最大,而其他气候类型对热点区域内的像元数量的影响较小。（5）社会经济因素对于热点区域内的像元数量有着显著的影响,其中城市人口数量和国内生产总值最重要,两者结合可以解释全部热点的86.46%。结论 研究探明的热点区域和影响因素可以为“一带一路”典型区土地利用格局演变、区域土地利用规划和土地资源可持续利用提供决策支持。     

黄土高原土地利用变化特征及其环境效应

研究目的:基于黄土高原近30余年来土地利用/植被覆盖变化(LUCC),分析该地区LUCC及其环境效应,为区域生态环境与社会经济的可持续发展政策提供科学依据。研究方法:地统计和趋势分析等。研究结果:(1)黄土高原土地利用结构整体上未发生变化,仍以草地、耕地和林地为主,但植被覆盖度提升显著;(2)黄土高原LUCC受气候变化和人类活动共同影响,影响程度存在区域性差异,其中黄土高原中部丘陵沟壑区主要由人类活动导致;(3)黄土高原LUCC对地表径流、土壤侵蚀、土壤水分及碳循环等生态环境过程将产生长期的影响,植被恢复在发挥生态效益的同时对区域生态环境产生消极的作用。研究结论:黄土高原植被生产力已接近水资源承载力阈值,提升人工植被稳定性、促进水资源平衡仍为现阶段促进黄土高原可持续发展的主要课题。     

Knowing but not knowing: Systematic conservation planning and community conservation in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca,Mexico

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) seeks to propose new reserves through a scientifically rigorous process using databases and research selection algorithims. However, SCP exercises have been criticized for “knowing but not doing”, i.e. not implementing the proposed reserve. But there is an additional problem that can be called “knowing but not knowing”, knowing things from databases, but not knowing crucial contextual information about community-based social processes that have supported the high forest cover and biodiversity detected. Examined here is how a common property region of the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico has maintained high forest cover in the absence of public protected areas, while multiple SCP exercises have advocated for the creation of public protected areas in communal tropical montane cloud forests and pine forests as strategies for biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate change. Methods included archival research, review of community documents, focus group interviews, semi-structured interviews, participant observation, land use transects, and GIS analysis and remote sensing. Conservation in the region originally occurred because of low population densities, steep slopes and a lack of agricultural subsidies, supported by locally adapted agricultural practices. In the 1990s, a transition from passive to active conservation took place with land use zoning plans, community conservation rules, community forestry enterprises and payments for environmental service programs that consolidated a trend towards high, unthreatened forest cover. Today, the study communities have an average of 88.3% forest cover, with 61% of that in informal conservation based on community land use zoning and rules and another 14% governed by forest management plans approved by the Mexican government. We argue that truly systematic conservation plans would seek to understand how communities in the region are already managing forests for conservation. It is pointless and uninformed to advocate for top-down conservation interventions of forests that are already robustly conserved and resilient to climate change due to community action.     

The role of land use conversion in shaping the land cover of the Central American Dry Corridor

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a trans-border region characterized by climatic and ecological continuities. It is expected to experience rising aridity and severe hydro-climatic events due to climate change. Subsistence agriculture and other rural livelihoods to which land cover is central are widely practiced in this impoverished territory of approximately eleven million people.The CADC’s land cover was profiled to determine: a) how it differs from Non-CADC areas, and b) the role of land use in shaping these differences. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using satellite data showed that forest cover is a third less prevalent in the CADC than in the Non-CADC while the share of mosaic vegetation and mosaic cropland is nearly double. A naturally prevalent cover type in the CADC, tropical dry forest (TDF), has been largely eliminated.The significantly lesser proportion of forest and greater percentage of coverage consistent with agriculture and ranching implicate land use conversion, specifically deforestation for agricultural expansion and cattle ranching, in shaping CADC land coverage. The process began in the mid-1800s when small-scale agriculturalists migrated to the region followed by large-scale export crop and beef production, primarily for international markets. Deforestation peaked after WWII, concluding by the 1990s with the conversion of most woodlands. Similar patterns now threaten forests along the Caribbean coast.Traditional land use practices cannot sustain local communities or preserve the resource base, thereby contributing to rural outmigration. Adopting sustainable practices and promoting livelihoods strategies leading to forest regeneration will be fundamental for CC adaptation in the CADC.     

Deforestation dynamics and policy changes in Bolivia's post-neoliberal era

This work compares the effects of neoliberal and post-neoliberal land-use policies on forest cover along the Corredor Bioceánico of southeastern Bolivia to determine if rates of agriculturally driven forest clearance have changed since the Morales’ administration came to office in 2005. Satellite image analysis, supported by semi-structured interviews with farmers and representatives of key institutions, shows that deforestation for commercial agriculture in Santa Cruz continues and has increased in certain “hotspots”. Previous research has shown that the environmental effects of neoliberalism on forest cover are varied, but more broadly, reduced state intervention has meant less environmental regulation and greater deforestation, while strong government is better able to curtail deforestation. Although neoliberal policies triggered an unprecedented level of forest clearing in Bolivia, rates have generally continued to increase and can be indirectly linked to the administration's new agrarian reform and pro-environmental regulations. This trend is counterintuitive and stems from unanticipated responses such as deforestation through fire to prove productive use under the reform's socio-economic function requirements. Given increased regulation and enforcement of forest clearing and burning under Morales, in contrast to the neoliberal era, our analyses suggest that rates will continue to increase under the current political climate, which has further polarized the opposition in Santa Cruz.