OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

Economic policy making in evolutionary perspective

Economic policy making is discussed from three different angles: the political economy of actual policy making (“what policy does do”), the analysis of policy instruments for given ends (“what policy could do”), and the debate on policy goals and their legitimization (“what policy ought to do”). Center stage in the evolutionary perspective is new, positive and normative knowledge which is unfolding during the policy making process and in its aftermath. It is argued that this implies regularities and constraints which extend and modify the comparative-static interpretations of public choice theory, economic policy making theory, and social philosophy. RID="*" ID="*" The author should like to thank three anonymous referees of this journal and the editor for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

The Five-Year Outlook as a policy document: Historical and comparative perspectives

The article reflects on the role played by policy analysis in the development of national science policies. Its thesis is that science policy, for coherence as a policy function and its impact on policy making, depends on analysis of goals, strategies, issues, and programs; policy crystallizes, to the extent it does, through the medium of policy analysis. First, a number of United States science policy reports prepared between 1945 and 1980 are reviewed. Next, recent science policy reports from predominantly western countries are examined. Taken together, these historical and comparative perspectives make it possible to appreciate the policy potential of future Five-Year Outlook reports.     

Why Economists should Choose their Inheritance: Physics and Path-independence in Economic Systems

Abstract

This paper considers the possibility of using fiscal rather than monetary policy as the instrument of stabilization policy in a new consensus framework. Describing the conduct of fiscal policy in terms of a ‘pseudo Taylor rule’, it is shown that fiscal policy is as, if not more, effective than monetary policy as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. The conclusion reached is that the comparative neglect of fiscal policy as an instrument of stabilization policy in new consensus macroeconomics is unwarranted.     

中国科技政策良好体现环境保护的影响因素研究

随着绿色发展上升为事关国家发展理念的全局性政策需求,环境保护因素如何良好地体现在中国公共政策体系尤其是非环境保护类公共政策体系中已成为一个全局性、战略性和跨部门的重大政策问题。然而,现有研究对中国科技政策体现和推动环境保护的作用及其背后影响因素和规律的探索却较少。从公共科技政策对环境保护具有系统重要性的视角切入,通过对1949-2015年全时段、全样本量的中国体现环境保护因素的科技政策变迁进行结构化或半结构化政策文本分析,回答“哪些因素影响着环境友好型公共科技政策的形成”这一研究问题。研究结论是中国科技政策体现环境保护的政策安排具有阶段性特征,“多”并不必然等于“好”。进一步指出,当前环境友好型公共科技政策需要具备政策制定高度、清晰的高层次全局动员治理手段、高效的多部门政策协同和充分的各级资源配置4个方面。力图在理论层面拓展非环境保护类公共政策体现及推动环境保护的政策体系框架,并首次在实践层面就改进中国科技政策对环境保护的体现给出了相应定量值,以测度什么样的“多”才会等同于“好”,不仅将加强对环境保护与科技政策之间关系的认知,还将为环境友好型公共科技政策的制定提供参考。     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

Innovating SMEs and Regions: The Need for Policy Intelligence and Interactive Policies

Based on the empirical findings achieved through comparative research involving 40 innovation policy instruments from 11 European regions, this paper proposes a shift in rationale and in the broad orientations of innovation policy to focus on addressing SMEs in their regional context. The main role for innovation policy, which aims to increase the capacity of a region and the capabilities of its SMEs to innovate, is to foster interactive learning within the firms and within the region. This calls for an interactive mode of policy intervention. The paper deals also with the question of how to build a coherent portfolio of policy instruments, taking into account both regional situations and specific SMEs needs in terms of innovation. The key message is that there is no 'one-size-fits-all' policy portfolio. Regional differences in innovation capabilities call for a tailored mix of policy instruments. One salient element of the conclusion is the need for more 'policy intelligence' in this complex field.     

产业政策如何影响企业绩效：不同政策与作用路径是否存在影响差异?

文章将产业政策分成供给型、需求型与环境型,依托中国战略性新兴产业分析了不同政策通过政策资源的直接配置以及企业间配置两种作用路径对企业(产业)绩效的影响。研究发现：与供给型政策相结合的补贴行为通过以上两个路径抑制了企业绩效提升;产业政策对不同大小企业的影响存在差异,供给型政策资源的配置在小企业间并未呈现显著的集中特征,但在大企业间政策资源更为集中;供给型政策主要通过政策资源在企业间的配置路径降低大企业绩效,而通过补贴直接配置路径抑制小企业绩效提升;整体看环境型政策对投资、补贴等行为没有显著影响,但对大企业而言,其对政策资源在企业间的分散配置具有负向作用,而这一影响在小企业中则为促进作用。研究还发现,需求型政策有利于资源再配置,供给型政策则尚未显示出积极的资源再配置作用。     

政策工具及其组合与海上风电技术创新和扩散:来自德国的考察

发展低碳经济的核心在于低碳技术创新和扩散,低碳技术创新和扩散受政策工具及其组合的直接影响。总结归纳政策工具类型、设计要点及其组合特征,分析德国海上风电技术政策工具及其组合特征,并定性研究政策工具、组合特征及相应组织对德国海上风电技术创新和扩散的具体影响。结果表明,各政策工具对海上风电技术创新和扩散具有正向影响;全面性政策工具组合能够克服海上风电技术创新和扩散面临的市场失灵、制度失灵和其它瓶颈;政策工具组合特征在单个政策工具对海上风电技术创新和扩散的影响中起调节作用;政策工具组合全面性、可靠性、一致性程度与海上风电技术创新和扩散正相关;政策工具组合可靠性与全面性、一致性之间在对海上风电技术创新影响中存在互补关系。     

1978—2018年我国科技政策体系对新材料领域的政策资源投入研究

通过对1978-2018年间科技政策、科技中长期规划、科技计划的政策文本分析,理清了我国科技政策体系对新材料领域的政策资源投入。研究结论是:我国科技政策体系对新材料领域的政策资源投入越来越多,2001-2018年间我国对新材料领域的国拨经费总额为251.8亿元,并从科技规划和科技政策两个层面都得到我国科技界对新材料的重要性排序上升起始点为2004年,并在2013年达到了其第一个峰值年。政策建议是:基于我国科技政策体系对新材料领域的政策资源投入越来越多,新材料作为技术领域影响力日渐上升,是否有必要将其作为一个单独的技术领域,已需要开展进一步的研究。     

Policy Bias Equivalence under Common Agency

This paper studies interest group influence on policy making. Lobbying occurs in a first price auction where an interest group wins with certainty, if her bid exceeds the loser’s bid by the policy maker’s valuation for the socially best policy. Otherwise the latter implements the privately known best policy. In equilibrium the size of the policy maker’s valuation does not matter for the size of the policy bias. The idea is to construct a “reference game” and to shift the support of the equilibrium mixed strategies into the original game, without altering the structure of the densities.     

The choice of innovation policy instruments

The purpose of this article is to discuss the different types of instruments of innovation policy, to examine how governments and public agencies in different countries and different times have used these instruments differently, to explore the political nature of instrument choice and design (and associated issues), and to elaborate a set of criteria for the selection and design of the instruments in relation to the formulation of innovation policy. The article argues that innovation policy instruments must be designed and combined into mixes in ways that address the problems of the innovation system. These mixes are often called “policy mix”. The problem-oriented nature of the design of instrument mixes is what makes innovation policy instruments ‘systemic’.     

Is debt conservatism the solution to financial constraints? An empirical analysis of Japanese firms

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates why firms choose the conservative financing strategy known as non-positive net debt policy, which is a more recent prevalent trend among Japanese firms. The analysis reveals that Japanese firms are more likely to be financially conservative if they are smaller, older and more profitable and have fewer growth opportunities and tangibility. The survival analysis further investigates the duration of conservative debt policy and ordinary debt policy. The evidence shows that firms adopt/abandon the conservative policy with different motivations and preferences over debt conservatism. In particular, we argue that the more financially constrained firms abandon the conservative debt policy sooner than their counterparts, while less financially constrained firms abandon the ordinary (less conservative) debt policy sooner than their counterparts. The results suggest that a firm uses a conservative debt policy in terms of net leverage as a temporary buffer to mitigate financial constraints.     

Does the Reserve Bank of Australia follow a forward-looking nonlinear monetary policy rule?

ABSTRACT

The conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate, inflation rate and output gap. An important extension to this rule is to incorporate the forward-looking behaviour of central banks, where it is assumed that they target an expected level of inflation instead of its current realised value. Using quarterly observations for the period 1993:1-2018:2, this paper investigates whether the conduct of monetary policy in Australia can be described by a forward-looking linear monetary policy rule, or by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule. In particular, the nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule is analysed in a regime-switching framework using a smooth logistic transition regression model. While the results show that the conventional forward-looking linear monetary policy rule describes the application of monetary policy in Australia reasonably well, the interest rate setting behaviour of the RBA is best described by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule.     

Transparent US monetary policy: theory and tests

In 1994, the Federal Reserve System moved to a more transparent reporting of monetary policy. This article assesses the impact of monetary policy transparency on uncertainty about future monetary policy using T-bill rate forecast dispersions and ex post forecast errors from the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a proxy for monetary policy uncertainty. The empirical findings confirm that Federal Reserve transparency has reduced the uncertainty about future monetary policy.     

The implicit objective function of Italian macroeconomic policy: 1963:1–1980:4

Econometric estimates of policy makers' preferences can be an important source of information for ex post macroeconomic policy analysis. This paper first discusses the econometric methodology to obtain consistent estimates of the policy maker's objective function. Properties of the estimation process are derived by appropriately solving an inverse control problem. Then, Italian macroeconomic data are used to estimate the policy maker's preferences under different specifications of his objective function. The major finding is that the balance of payments equilibrium was the main target of Italian macroeconomic policy.     

财政政策:遵守规则还是相机抉择

2004年10月,诺贝尔经济学奖的颁发,又一次引发了人们对财政政策时间一致性的关注,遵守规则的政策主张似乎又一次回归主流。通过比较英、美等发达市场经济国家财政政策的变迁以及通过分析政策规则与相机抉择不同的理论假设,我认为在制定财政政策时必须两者兼顾。我国现行的稳健(中性)财政政策恰恰体现了这种思想的内涵与本质。     

“全面二孩”政策实施能有效破解城镇职工养老保险基金支付危机吗*——基于不同人口政策效果情景的分析

本文运用人口预测模型和养老金收支缺口模型,在分析“全面二孩”政策实施对城镇出生人口短期和长期影响的基础上,测算了“全面二孩”政策不同实施效果情景下城镇职工养老保险基金收支平衡的变化。实证结果表明：（1）“全面二孩”政策实施将推迟城镇总人口峰值出现的时间,同时会增加人口峰值的规模。（2）政策效果在悲观和折中情境下,“全面二孩”政策实施只是推迟了养老保险参保职工人口下降拐点出现的时间,改变不了参保职工人口下降的总体趋势;在乐观情景下,可以保持参保职工人口的基本稳定。（3）“全面二孩”政策实施有利于城镇职工养老保险的收支平衡,政策效果从2037年开始显现,三种政策效果情境下弥补当年养老金缺口的比例分别为36%,52%,68%。影响效果从2040年开始逐年减弱,到2050年弥补养老金缺口的比例分别下降至11%,27%和50%,不能改变养老金缺口不断扩大的趋势。     

NON‐UNIFORM STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY AND AGGREGATE PROFIT CREATION EFFECT

This paper illustrates a new theoretical case for a strategic R&D policy in a two‐country third‐market international oligopoly model. Asymmetric treatment of domestic firms through a non‐uniform R&D policy can create aggregate profits without a foreign retaliation concern and further improve national welfare in addition to what a uniform policy accomplishes. This effect occurs when the conventional Brander–Spencer incentive is entirely absent as well as when the uniformly optimal R&D policy initially prevailed. The superiority of non‐uniform policy to uniform‐policy is not guaranteed, however, when the number of firms becomes endogenous.     

Competition policy: ten lessons learnt from the financial crisis

The financial crisis brought great challenges also for competition policy. The aim of this paper is to summarize the most important insights for competition policy that could be derived from the turbulent period 2008–2010. The financial crisis is seen as project that demanded sound management from competition policy and enforcement. The insights will be presented in the instructive form of ‘lessons learnt’ which represents a common approved project management technique. We come to the result that the financial crisis is not the result of ‘too much competition’, but of regulatory failure and that the main answers to the financial crisis have to come from ‘smart regulation’. The relaxation of competition policy would be the wrong policy response in troubled times since competition policy can play an important role in bringing the crisis economy back on track. In contrast to banking we see no economic rationale for rescue packages for other economic sectors by referring to systemic risk. The renaissance of industrial policy is viewed with great skepticism since empirical evidence shows that the effort of picking ‘winners’ all too often results in saving ‘losers’.