Tariff Liberalization and Trade Integration of Emerging Countries

This paper investigates how tariff liberalization has affected exporting at the product‐destination level in emerging countries. We use a highly disaggregated (six‐digit level of the harmonized system—HS—classification) bilateral measure of market access to compare tariffs applied in 1996 and 2006, which includes the timing of the Uruguay Round and episodes of bilateral liberalization. Our econometric estimations consider impacts of tariff cuts on three components of the trade margins: extensive margin of entry (new trade relationships at the product‐destination level), extensive margin of exit (disappearance of existing relationships) and intensive margin of trade (deepening existing relationships). Our main estimates indicate that a reduction of bilateral applied tariffs of 1 percentage point increases the extensive margin of entry by 0.1% and the intensive one by 2.09%, while it reduces the extensive margin of exit by 0.25%.     

国际贸易中的两国关税博弈--兼论加入WTO后我国的关税对策

本文主要利用博弈论中纳什均衡的原理讨论在完全信息情况下，两国在国际贸易中的关税对策问题，并给出了关税对策的最优解。根据最优解讨论了关税增减对两国关税收入的影响，通过案例分析说明了我国加入WTO以后应采取的关税对策。     

Gradualism in Trade Agreements with Asymmetric Countries

This paper uses recursive methods to characterize the payoff frontier of self–enforcing trade agreements between countries of asymmetric size. We show that at points on the frontier where only one country&'s incentive constraint binds, the efficient agreement will be a non–stationary one that starts with a positive trade distortion but eventually reaches free trade. Our analysis illustrates how (i) relative country size, (ii) consumption smoothing incentives, and (iii) sunk investments affect the form of efficient trade agreements. In contrast to previous work on gradualism, our results are obtained from a model in which the economic environment is stationary.     

从降低关税到构建自由贸易区的有关问题研究

通过承诺逐年降低关税，中国已经顺利加入WTO。实践证明，降税后中国的经济贸易正继续保持增长的势头。一般的关税经济效应分析指出，降低关税必然降低本国对相关产业的保护程度，这也是人们密切关注的市场冲击问题。本文通过理论和实践分析认为：只要指导和监控得当，降低关税可以产生反向激励效应，利用技术变化关系经过多层次转化，进而使进口冲击转变为出口优势。如果继续降低关税，直至与周边的有关国家和地区建立自由贸易区，由此产生的静态和动态效应，将会进一步推动我国经济的高速增长。     

International Duopoly, Tariff Policy and the Superiority of Free Trade

This paper addresses the effectiveness of tariff policy in the long-run production framework in which decisions must be made about plant size and the level of output to be produced by foreign duopolists competing with each other in the importing country's market. We consider two types of tariff regime, discriminatory and uniform, and show that the importing country's welfare is unambiguously higher in the uniform tariff case. We consider free trade in the same production framework and show that, as the long-run capacity decision becomes increasingly relevant relative to the short-run quantity decision, free trade dominates tariffs in welfare rankings.
JEL Classification Number: F1.     

南北型自由贸易区的原产地规则对其成员国的差异性影响

作者在3×3×2的模型中分析了南北型自由贸易区对其成员国的非对称性影响.在目前南北型自由贸易区的典型贸易模式下,严格的原产地规则主要通过影响成员国之间的贸易条件,增加发达成员的福利,而减少发展中成员的福利.严格的原产地规则还会抑制发展中成员国的出口,增加发达成员国的关税收入,或者减少发展中国家的关税收入.     

Networks of Free Trade Agreements among Heterogeneous Countries

The paper examines the formation of free trade agreements as a network formation game. We consider an n‐country model in which international trade occurs between economies with imperfectly competitive product markets. In each country, the labor market is either unionized or non‐unionized. We show that, if all countries are non‐unionized, the global free trade network is both the unique pairwise stable network and the unique efficient network. If all countries are unionized, the global free trade network is pairwise stable and the unique efficient network among the class of symmetric networks. If some countries are unionized while others are non‐unionized, other networks apart from the global free trade network may be pairwise stable. However, the efficient network is still the global free trade network. Thus, a conflict between stability and efficiency may occur. Moreover, starting from the network in which no country has signed a free trade agreement, all sequences of networks due to continuously profitable deviations do not lead (in most cases) to the global free trade network, even when global free trade is stable.     

建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势。按照《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成。本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国一东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力。     

建立中国——东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析

在当今世界经济的发展中,区域经济一体化是战后世界经济发展的重要特征,也是当前世界经济发展的客观必然趋势.按照<中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议>时间框架,中国-东盟自由贸易区于2010年1月1日全面建成.本文首先介绍了中国-东盟自由贸易区的发展状况;然后采用定性分析法,通过对建立中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应分析,可以看出中国东盟的经济还有很大的发展空间,只要将贸易区内存在的问题处理妥当,中国-东盟自由贸易区在建成后将能发挥更大的潜力.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易发展的思考

服务贸易是中国—东盟自由贸易区发展的一项重要内容,中国和东盟各国应在加快服务贸易合作的基础上,通过保障服务贸易良好发展的一系列协议,采取不同策略逐步发展服务贸易,消除服务贸易中产生的摩擦,以实现中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易的快速发展。     

Trade Taxes and Welfare: The Case of Export Incentives in South-East Asian Countries

It is now widely recognised that the distortions common in many developing countries lead to a bias against exporting. In consequence many governments have begun to provide export incentives aimed at compensating for this bias. This article begins by examining the range of such incentives offered in South-East Asian countires. It then goes on to use the standard theory of the second-best to develop a simple framework within which these policies can be assessed. The difficulties encountered in constructing a system of export incentives that will not introduce distortions of their own are highlighted. The constraints imposed by GATT obligations are also noted.     

Why Do Poor democracies Collect a Lot of Tariff Revenue?

Governments in developing countries typically collect a significantly higher proportion of their revenue in the form of trade taxes, than their developed country counterparts. This paper provides a political–economic explanation for this phenomenon. A model of trade in vertically differentiated products is used in order to determine the preferences of the households among different ways of raising government revenue. It is shown that the majority of households in poor countries will consume low-quality, domestically produced varieties of differentiated products and would thus register a preference for the government to rely more on tariff rather than income tax revenue in order to finance its operations.     

中国东盟自由贸易区建设与我国经济安全

在经济全球化时代,经济安全不仅成为整个国家安全的重要组成部分,而且成为整个国家安全的基础.我们要实现党的十六届六中全会提出的构建社会主义和谐社会的宏伟目标,就必须确保我国的经济安全,就必须努力营造一个和谐宽松的国际环境.加强中国东盟自由贸易区建设,就是我国主动塑造外部环境的重要战略举措.对于确保我国经济安全和构建社会主义和谐社会宏伟目标的实现,具有重大的战略意义.     

Tariff Revenue, Government Expenditure and Growth in a Small Open Economy

I develop a small open endogenous growth model with domestic and foreign intermediate goods. The Marshallian external economies in the domestic intermediate goods sector work as the engine of sustained growth. The model offers two arguments. First, imposing a trade distortion is growth- and welfare-improving if the government uses the tariff revenue for correcting the domestic distortion. Second, comparing the tariff with a lump-sum tax as a financing device, the former is certainly worse than the latter with respect to both growth and welfare if the two intermediate goods are substitutes.
JEL Classification Numbers: F43, H20.     

中澳农产品贸易不对称竞争压力分析

中澳自由贸易协定谈判已进行十一轮,农业问题是双方关注的焦点.现有的研究表明中澳农产品贸易具有强互补性,但农业问题成为双方关注的焦点,一部分原因在于强互补性背后存在的不对称竞争压力.本文借助贸易特化指数和竞争压力指数,在中澳农产品国际竞争力和竞争性分析的基础上,探析了两国农产品贸易的不对称竞争压力.结果表明:中澳农产品在双边贸易和全球市场上存在趋势不同的竞争性和程度、方向不一致的不对称竞争压力.     

Cooperation and Competition in Climate Change Policies: Mitigation and Climate Engineering when Countries are Asymmetric

We study a dynamic game of climate policy design in terms of emissions and solar radiation management (SRM) involving two heterogeneous countries or group of countries. Countries emit greenhouse gasses (GHGs), and can block incoming radiation by unilateral SRM activities, thus reducing global temperature. Heterogeneity is modelled in terms of the social cost of SRM, the environmental damages due to global warming, the productivity of emissions in terms of generating private benefits, the rate of impatience, and the private cost of geoengineering. We determine the impact of asymmetry on mitigation and SRM activities, concentration of GHGs, and global temperature, and we examine whether a tradeoff actually emerges between mitigation and SRM. Our results could provide some insights into a currently emerging debate regarding mitigation and SRM methods to control climate change, especially since asymmetries seem to play an important role in affecting incentives for cooperation or unilateral actions.     

转轨国家的竞争政策与立法研究——以俄罗斯为例

竞争法作为市场经济国家维护竞争自由的基本法,在一些西方国家里被誉为"经济宪法".自20世纪90年代以来,随着经济转轨进程的深化,转轨国家普遍认识到,要增强经济实力,实现经济的持续增长,必须建立必要的法律和制度等基础设施,而竞争政策便是其中的一个主要方面.俄罗斯作为主要的转轨国家,它制定的《反垄断法》是一部广义上的竞争法,其内容既涉及反不正当竞争,又涉及反垄断.随着经济全球化的发展,转轨国家不断与世界其他国家开展反垄断领域的协调与合作.     

日韩双边自由贸易区与日韩中三边自由贸易区:孰优孰劣?

本文在地区经济合作的框架下考查计划中的日韩双边自由贸易区可能的收益。首先分析东北亚经济一体化的背景，动机和目标，接着讨论日韩双边自由贸易区的收益和可能存在的问题，最后提出另一种更好的促进区域经济一体化的想法－－日韩中三边自由贸易区。