论中国外贸转型的合理取向及政策建议

中国正处于货物贸易粗放型增长模式不可持续而服务贸易又缺乏竞争力的两难境地,但目前出于就业压力及比较优势尚存的原因,中国不能放弃劳动密集型产品的出口,服务贸易的发展又势在必行.所以,外贸转型的合理取向应该是加快实现从有形的货物贸易为主向有形的货物贸易与无形的服务贸易并重的方式转变,使服务贸易成为推动中国贸易增长的重要力量.     

我国对外贸易新常态的表现与转型发展的路径选择

目前,我国对外贸易进入新常态发展阶段,外贸发展步入中低速增长时期,全要素成本优势逐步弱化,国际经贸制度环境愈加复杂。对外贸易新常态的到来对其转型升级提出更加迫切的要求,为实现对外贸易"稳增长、调结构、促平衡"的发展目标,应从以下四个路径着手:企业应通过积极的业务模式创新和新市场的开拓,确保短期内稳定增长;积极培育企业竞争新优势,推动全要素成本优势向全要素质量优势转变;通过深化服务业市场开放,促进服务贸易与货物贸易平衡发展;提升进口水平,发挥进口对国内产业结构和国际经贸话语权的双提升作用。     

中国服务贸易发展的回顾与展望——基于1982—2008年数据的经验分析

随着乌拉圭回合《服务贸易总协定》的达成,各国在服务贸易领域方面的保护性措施逐步削减,市场开放力度和范围不断扩大,全球对外贸易竞争的焦点也逐步由货物贸易转向服务贸易。本文首先回顾国内外服务贸易研究的相关文献,并结合中国改革开放30年来服务贸易发展的客观实际,指出当前中国服务贸易发展尚存在总体规模不足、结构失衡、竞争优势较弱、服务贸易开放水平低等问题,并在此基础上提出大力发展生产者服务以及促进服务外包发展从而实现服务贸易增长方式创新等建议,旨在为新世纪中国服务贸易又好又快发展提供参考。     

从出口扩张到对外贸易“换挡”:基于贸易结构转型的贸易与研发政策选择

在国内要素成本不断上涨和发达国家"再工业化"的背景下,我国对外贸易将从高速扩张,"换挡"到中高速增长的"新常态",对外贸易结构能否相应地实现转型升级、贸易与研发政策如何制定,值得深入研究。本文在纵向关联市场框架下构建理论模型,探讨在核心技术水平落后于发达国家的前提下,实现贸易结构转变的方式和条件,以及贸易结构转变前后的贸易和研发政策选择。本文发现,在进口中间产品的贸易格局下,我国实施研发补贴和出口补贴政策,可以实现贸易质、量增长的平衡;而在出口中间产品的贸易新格局下,我国仍然可以通过实施研发补贴和出口补贴政策,实现贸易质、量达成新的平衡。本文还发现,创新驱动发展是在贸易增速"换挡"的"新常态"下,实现出口结构转型升级和出口数量稳定增长的关键。     

贸易理论的发展与我国对外贸易竞争力的培养

文章通过追溯国际贸易理论的发展历程 ,提出传统的以比较优势为指导的产业间贸易已不适合经济发展 ,应逐渐转向实行以竞争优势为指导的产业内贸易 ,来提升我国的对外贸易竞争力 ,并结合我国情况 ,就这种转变提出了几点建议。     

中国产业竞争优势分析——基于东盟与中、日双边贸易的比较

东盟与中国、日本双边贸易具有不同特点,为进一步突出中国在东盟的产业竞争优势,应从全球战略大局出发,调整贸易政策,建立适宜的贸易机制,推动双边贸易的稳定健康增长;对内要不断提高对外开放水平,加快转变外贸增长方式,实现对外贸易由数量增加为主向质量提高为主转变.     

中国对外贸易新型竞争力发展战略研究

经过改革开放30多年的发展,在以要素禀赋为基础的传统竞争优势支撑下,中国已成为名副其实的贸易大国。如今,贸易大国向贸易强国发展和转变成为中国对外贸易发展的关键。但贸易强国发展的内在要求是高质量的发展模式,中国传统的以量取胜的竞争优势无法继续支撑贸易强国的发展。因此,贸易强国的目标要求中国必须构建对外贸易新型竞争力。本文以要素质量为核心,构建中国对外贸易新型竞争力理论,并以此为基础从驱动要素、实现途径以及制度安排三方面建立完善的中国对外贸易新型竞争力发展战略。     

WTO法与中国对外贸易的可持续发展

党的十六届三中全会确立的以人为本,全面协调可持续发展的经济发展战略非常正确和及时,对未来中国对外贸易发展有重要的指导意义。本文阐述了可持续发展在WTO法中的意义和重要地位,说明中国参与WTO活动以及执行WTO法的根本目的是实现对外贸易的可持续发展。一、WTO法的根本目标是实现各成员对外贸易可持续发展世界贸易组织(WTO)是在组织上取代关贸总协定,协调和约束各成员贸易政策、法规和措施的政府间国际组织,WTO建立了一整套调整各成员货物贸易、服务贸易、与贸易有关知识产权保护的条约法体系,提供了解决各成员贸易争端的法律机…     

中国吸收服务业FDI有效性的实证分析

全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易，转移重心开始由制造业向服务业转移，重点领域为金融、保险、旅游和咨询等服务业以及信息、电子产业等资本技术密集型产业。     

新形势下山东加快转变外贸发展方式的路径选择

山东是中国的经济大省,也是对外贸易大省,在中国对外贸易发展中居于举足轻重地位。改革开放以来,山东高度重视发展对外贸易,紧紧把握各种难得机遇,积极应对各种挑战,对外贸易取得了较大成就,为促进国民经济平稳较快发展做出了重要贡献。目前,山东对外贸易还存在不均衡、不协调、不可持续的问题,迫切需要转变对外贸易发展方式,努力实现对外贸易从规模扩张向质量和效益提高转变,从主要依靠低成本优势向增强综合竞争优势转变,从贸易大省向贸易强省转变。     

考虑港口收费管制的进出口贸易竞争研究

考虑港口的收费管制因素,建立了进出口贸易竞争模型。该模型由一个出口国和两个进口国组成,且各国都拥有一个港口,位于出口国的两家公司均向两个进口国销售商品,并在各个进口国展开市场竞争（古诺竞争或伯川德竞争）,各贸易国的港口根据其是否存在价格管制确定港口收费。针对进出口公司的每种竞争模式,得到了不同的港口收费管制组合下各贸易国的港口收费、港口利润和社会福利,并将竞争均衡结果进行了比较。研究发现： （1）在进出口公司古诺竞争模式下,若三个贸易国的港口都无收费管制（有收费管制）且进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,各贸易国的社会福利和港口利润均更高; （2）在进出口公司伯川德竞争模式下,若进出口产品的差异较大 （小）,则出口国的港口利润主要取决于港口收费 （贸易量）,而进口国恰好相反; （3）当进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,进出口公司在古诺 （伯川德）竞争模式下各贸易国的社会福利、港口利润以及港口使用费都更高。     

Investment in trade facilitating infrastructure: A political-economy analysis

This paper analyzes public investment in infrastructure that facilitates international trade. It considers a world consisting of small open economies that face transport costs for exporting or importing a particular good. Transport costs can be lowered by an improvement in transport infrastructure. National governments non-cooperatively decide about their respective country's investment level. Governments' preferences are assumed to be biased in favor of producers' interests with consequences for equilibrium investments: Exporting countries, whose producers benefit from a transport cost reduction, spend more for infrastructure than importing countries, whose producers are protected by transport costs from foreign competition. This outcome is inefficient, and governments have an incentive to cooperate internationally. The paper also incorporates bilateral trade with two goods that benefit from infrastructure improvements as well as trade that results from offshoring.     

Intra-Industry specialization: A cross-country analysis

This paper tests various hypotheses as to the determinants of intra-industry trade in thirty-eight developed and developing countries exporting manufactured goods. The econometric estimates for the entire group of countries show that the extent of intra-industry trade increases with the level of economic development (GNP per head), the size of domestic markets (GNP), and the openness of national economies. The existence of trading partners with common borders and geographical proximity further contributes to intra-industry trade.These hypotheses have also been confirmed for the developing country group. And while similarities in regard to trade orientation and the existence of border trade, as well as intercorrelation between the gross national product and per capita GNP, have reduced the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for these variables for the developed country group, this equation also has a high explanatory power.     

Does international openness affect the productivity of local firms?

This paper examines how international openness can change firm productivity in south‐eastern Europe (SEE), a crucial question for middle‐income countries. Using firm‐level data for six transition economies over the 1995–2002 period, we identify whether foreign ownership and propensity to trade with more advanced countries can bring about higher learning effects. We find that: (i) foreign ownership has helped restructure and enhance the productivity of local firms in four out of six countries; (ii) exporting to advanced markets has a larger impact on productivity growth in four countries, especially when the firm's absorptive capacity is taken into account; (iii) in contrast, exporting to the less competitive markets of the former Yugoslavia seems to negatively affect productivity growth in three countries; and (iv) learning effects from importing are similar to those from exporting. Our results suggest that trade liberalization is not uniformly beneficial. Regional composition of trade flows and absorptive capacity of local firms matter. Thus, trade liberalization within the SEE region may not provide a substitute for a general trade liberalization which includes access to the more competitive markets of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development.     

Competing-destinations gravity model applied to trade in intermediate goods

The competing-destinations formulation of the gravity model ensues from the fact that unlike the classic version, this approach explicitly acknowledges the interdependence of the flows between a set of alternative countries. This article applies the competing-destinations gravity model to the analysis of trade in intermediate goods. The results of the model were then tested empirically with an international input–output data set and using the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator. The empirical results suggest that the analytical model can explain trade in intermediate goods. Indeed, as predicted, import of intermediate goods is increasing in the importing country’s demand for inputs, in the competitiveness of the exporting country, and decreasing in distance and competition posed by alternative countries.     

国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布

对国际贸易结构的理论与经验研究已经充分揭示了技术在贸易中的重要作用。但是,对于如何识别贸易品的技术差异,如何分析贸易品的技术分布状况,进而如何从技术分布来分析贸易结构等,目前还没有非常成熟的方法。本文试图通过完善关志雄(2002)在这方面的努力来提供基于贸易品技术分布的贸易结构分析法。本文用显示技术附加值赋值原理作为识别贸易品技术附加值高低的理论基础,然后根据这一原理提供了具体的赋值方法,并提出了四种基于贸易品技术分布的贸易结构分析方法,分别是:竞争互补指数、竞争压力指数、技术高度曲线和贸易品高低技术分类分析法。最后,本文用上述方法分析了中国的对外贸易结构。     

Should Small Countries Fear Deindustrialization?

Will small countries deindustrialize when opening up to trade with large countries? Donald Davis (1998 ) shows that for the home market effect to lead to deindustrialization of small countries, trade costs for homogeneous goods must be sufficiently smaller than trade costs in differentiated goods, a condition which is not supported by empirical evidence. We show that if differentiated goods production uses tradable inputs small countries can become deindustrialized when trading with a sufficiently large country and if trade costs are low.     

The core periphery model with asymmetric inter-regional and intra-regional trade costs

We generalize the model of Krugman (J Polit Econ 99(3):483–499, 1991) to allow for asymmetric trade costs between regions and for (asymmetric) trade costs that are internal to the regions. We find that industrial activity, in a region, is enhanced by higher costs of importing and lower costs of exporting (more precisely, by a higher ratio between the two trade costs). This suggests that countries may impose tariffs on imported goods and seek to remove the import tariffs in other countries (unilateral protectionism) in order to foster industrial activity. Industrial activity is also promoted by lower domestic internal trade costs and higher foreign internal trade costs (more precisely, by a lower ratio between the two trade costs).     

生产分工视角的中国对美国货物出口竞争力验证

考虑生产分工对中美间经贸联系程度、贸易规模和结构的影响,基于生产分工下价值链视角,构建出口竞争力测度指标体系,验证中国对美国货物出口竞争力。结果显示:2016年及之前,中国仅在杂项制品大类上,对美国显示出较强出口竞争力,机械和运输设备、动物和植物油、油脂和蜡我国具有比较优势,化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品双方竞争性较强,其余大类上,中国对美国出口竞争力不具优势。引入其他国家作对比的分析结果表明:中国对对比国家均无显著出口竞争力,而且对美国出口具有单价优势的资本技术密集型产品,对这些国家出口多缺乏单价优势,而2017年以来对美国和对比国家的贸易变化,进一步勾画出中国对美国货物出口竞争力不足。在生产分工主导全球产业发展背景下,提升我国在全球生产分工中的参与地位,宜强化自主技术研发、提升外资质量和技术外溢、加快"走出去"学习先进技术。     

AUSTRALIAN COMMODITY EXPORT PASS-THROUGH AND FEEDBACK CAUSALITY FROM COMMODITY PRICES TO THE EXCHANGE RATE

Commodity export pass-through is examined for Australia in an attempt to determine whether Australia is a price-taker in its commodity export trade. This is undertaken for seven categories of Australia's main commodity good exports. We also determine if there is feedback causality from particular world commodity prices back to the exchange rate as is often hypothesised for commodity good intensive exporting countries. It is found that Australian commodity good export pass-through is complete for the goods which are relatively less important in its export trade but is incomplete (although high) for the goods which are most important in its export trade. There is significant feedback causality to the exchange rate from the world price of coal and wheat, two of Australia's most important commodity good exports over the 1980s and early 1990s.