高管职位特征、机构投资者治理与企业研发投入

以沪深A股非金融类上市公司为样本，检验高管职位特征（任期、薪酬）以及机构投资者治理对企业研发投入的影响。结果发现：高管职位特征对企业研发投入有显著正向影响，高管任期越长、货币薪酬越高，企业研发动力越强、研发投入越大。然而，在机构投资者有效监督的环境下，当高管任期越长、短期货币薪酬越高时，出于研发失败风险导致未来职业声誉受损和被替换风险的考虑，高管会倾向于规避风险，反而不利于企业研发。政策意义在于：董事会和股东应当将长短任期和薪酬机制有效结合，当研发失败导致业绩下滑时审慎地对高管作出处罚，解除高管层的后顾之忧，增强高管加大研发投入的动力。     

外部选择权增加一定会刺激专用性投资吗*——基于云南烟草合同的微观证据

学术界对于外部选择权和专用性投资的关系一直存有争论。产权理论（主要是GHM模型）认为当事人外部选择权增加会提高谈判力,从而提高参与人的专用性投资激励,这是产权成为最重要激励工具的基本逻辑。然而,另一些学者则认为,当参与人外部选择权是紧的时候,外部选择权增加反而会降低参与人的投资激励。这意味着,产权不一定能够提高激励。本文在梳理已有文献争论的基础上,构建理论模型重新定义了外部选择权的范围,并在非合作博弈的框架下,得到与后一部分学者一致的结论：外部选择权的增加反而会降低参与人专用性投资的激励。同时,笔者使用云南烟草合同的微观数据,实证分析了外部选择权和专用性投资之间的关系,发现两者呈负相关关系,这进一步支持了该结论。本文的发现与主流的产权理论有所不同,具有一定的理论贡献和现实意义。     

我国国际资本流动：直接投资 与非直接投资影响因素的比较研究

本文基于向量误差修正模型对1982-2010年期间我国直接投资类、间接投资类（含其他投资）、错误与遗漏及投资收益类三种类型国际资本流动的影响因素进行了实证研究。实证检验结果表明：在长期,我国三类国际资本流动与人民币对美元的实际汇率升贴水年率之间为负向变动关系,与中美利差、中美通胀之差、我国实际经济增长及人民币对美元的实际汇率预期之间为正向变动关系;在短期,三类国际资本流动与上述影响因素之间关系并非一致;实际经济增长是我国直接投资类国际资本流动的主要原因,人民币对美元的实际汇率预期是我国非直接投资国际资本流动的主要原因。     

Strategic Investment in Climate Friendly Technologies: The Impact of Global Emissions Trading

Our point of departure is that a group of industrialized countries invest in research and development (R&D) of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technologies. R&D investments influence the future GHG abatement choices of both industrialized and developing countries. We distinguish between investments that reduce industrialized countries’ abatement costs and investments that reduce developing countries’ abatement costs. Unlike earlier contributions, we include global trading in emission permits. This changes the nature of the game. With global permit trading, industrialized countries should in many cases invest strategically in technologies that only reduce abatement costs at home. This comes in addition to investments abroad. Second, we show that R&D investments always decrease total emissions. Finally, we find that the developing region receiving investments always benefits.     

Time is not money

In an ultimatum bargaining experiment, we study how subjects bargain over the returns to their investments of money and time. The most notable finding is that a third of the subjects demand no compensation for their time investments, whereas almost all subjects demand compensation for equally costly monetary investments.     

基础设施投资的经济增长效应

基础设施总投资、交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资以及电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出具有较大、持久的正影响,时滞也相对较短;电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出的正影响更大,并且对交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资也具有较大的正影响。我国基础设施投资效应的这些重要特征,对于我国宏观经济政策的制定、实施时机和基础设施投资领域的选择都具有重要意义。     

Financial liberalization,private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets

Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term fixed investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy. The empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments.     

民营经济投融资基本数量分析

无论是从绝对量上看,还是从相对量上看,民营经济的投资份额都呈上升趋势,投资行业基本覆盖国民经济的主要领域。未来10年,民营经济投资将以年均10%的速度增长,投资比重将由38%上升到44%,占据全社会投资的半壁江山。     

Voluntary Environmental Investment and Responsive Regulation

Instances of corporate voluntary environmental investments have been rising in recent years. Motivations for such activities include corporate image building, regulatory preemption, and production cost savings. While some of these investments arise from industry attempts to set environmental standards where none currently exist, many investments seem to be aimed at reducing the costs of complying with existing regulations. Using a simple game-theoretic model, we investigate firm motivations for, and welfare consequences of, these types of voluntary investments by focusing on the role regulatory enforcement might play. We find that such investments unambiguously increase when an enforcement regulator acts as a Stackelberg follower (a regulatory structure we refer to as responsive regulation) in setting its monitoring and enforcement strategy. These additional investments may be socially undesirable, necessitating a restructuring of non-compliance penalties.     

林业引资与林产品贸易的可持续发展

林业引进外资不仅关系到林业产业的发展前景，也关系到林产品贸易的可持续发展问题。实证研究表明，林业引进外资与林产品贸易呈正相关关系．对林产品的出口有着极大的推动作用。因此，加大林业引资对于今后改善我国林业进出口的不平衡，缓减林产品贸易进口依存度过高的问题都将有深远的影响。     

Politically connected managers,government ownership and corporate socially responsible investments: evidence from China

We investigated the effects of politically connected managers on the corporate socially responsible investments of firms with different types of ownership. The results show that SOEs with politically connected managers are more likely to invest in corporate socially responsible investments compared to SOEs without such managers. However, private firms with politically connected managers are less likely to invest in corporate socially responsible investments than private firms without such managers.     

Behavioral rules in the distribution of sectoral investments in Hungary, 1951–1980

An attempt is made to determine empirically the basic criteria for the distribution of the available investment funds among claimants, i.e., among firms or sectors of the Hungarian economy. Time series of investments in the 1951–1980 period and behavioral equations show that investments were determined by two simple rules that were applied at the same time in virtually all sectors: (a) investments were adjusted instantaneously and unconditionally to macroeconomic tensions; (b) the sectoral distribution of investments remained relatively stable.     

货币政策、商业信用与科技创新投资

实证检验了商业信用对企业科技创新投资的影响与作用机制，以及在不同货币政策期的异同。研究发现：总体上，商业信用能够缓解创新融资约束，促进企业科技创新投资；在货币紧缩期，商业信用对创新融资约束有显著缓解作用，对创新投资的促进作用较之货币宽松期更为明显。进一步研究表明，国有企业能利用商业信用促进创新投资，且在货币紧缩期通过对商业信用的利用，缓解创新融资约束、促进创新投资；该现象在民营企业中不存在，可能与国有企业对商业信用有更强的获取及控制能力有关。研究成果丰富了商业信用的经济后果内涵，为解决企业创新融资问题提供了新思路。     

Stock market-driven investment: new evidence on information,financing and agency effects

This study provides a theoretical model and empirical analysis to jointly examine the information, financing and agency effects, the three channels through which the stock market can actively influence corporate investment decisions and firm performance. First, stock market affects corporate investments, and such impact varies with different market valuation measures, types of investments and firm characteristics. Second, stock market valuation affects investments through the channel of corporate financing, supporting the financing hypothesis. Third, stock market-driven investments have differential impacts on the future operating performance of firms. Investments driven by market valuation of firm-specific information have a positive effect on future performance. In contrast, investments driven by market-wide sentiment have a negative effect on future performance. Fourth, consistent with the information hypothesis, market-driven investments are value-enhancing for firms with better external monitoring by analysts and institutional investors. Lastly, consistent with the agency hypothesis, market-driven investments are value-destroying when firms lack external monitoring, proper managerial incentives and independent board of directors.     

On the spillover effect of China's outward FDI in Germany

The outward foreign direct investments of China have been steadily decreasing since the 21st century up to a point where the country has begun to passively accept direct investments from outsiders and holding off its active investments in expansion. Such trend has motivated scholars to examine the effects of countering investment. In line with these efforts, this study uses German firm-level data from the Academus database to examine the investment of China in Germany as its research object. Using the new investment review system as a quasi-natural experimental event construction instrument variable, an empirical analysis of how the investments of China in Germany can produce spillover effects on the productivity of German firms highlights the significant and robust effects of such investments as well as their negative horizontal and backward vertical spillover. Such negative spillover effect is particularly salient among German industries with low product heterogeneity, import and export intensities, and R&D levels of China.     

Endogenous growth with a limited fossil fuel extraction capacity

Campbell (1980) and following authors have discussed a limited resource extraction capacity as an augmentation of the well‐known Hotelling model. We integrate a limited extraction capacity and related investments in the endogenous growth model of Tsur and Zemel (2005) to study its effect on economic development. The capacity constraint gives rise to three effects. On the one hand, higher energy costs and the reallocation of production towards capacity investments decrease production available for consumption, research and/or capital investments (energy costs and reallocation effect). On the other hand, research investments may increase, which boosts available production (research effect). Depending on the capital endowment and the strength of the effects, long‐run consumption may be boosted or depressed. In particular, the capacity constraint may render everlasting consumption growth non‐optimal in a resource‐rich economy. Furthermore, we find that capacity investments may be postponed to later points in time if the capital endowment is high.     

台湾对中国大陆直接投资的技术溢出效应——基于扩展的CH模型

运用2000—2008年中国省际面板数据,通过建立扩展的CH模型,分析了台湾对中国大陆直接投资的技术外溢效应。结果表明,台资总体上对大陆具有显著的技术溢出效应,但因不同地区经济发展水平和地理位置的差异而表现出不同的特征。对于大陆整体而言,台资具有显著的技术溢出效应,但影响力度较小;对于不同经济发展水平的地区,台资的技术溢出效应随着地区经济发展水平的提高而增强;对于不同地理分布的地区,台资在大陆东部与中部地区具有明显的技术溢出效应,且东部大于中部,但在西部地区没有明显的技术溢出效应。     

On representative social capital

This paper analyzes the behavior of subjects randomly drawn from the Dutch population who reveal their capacity to provide and sustain social capital by their propensity to invest and reward investments in an economic experiment. We find that heterogeneity in behavior is characterized by several asymmetries—men, the young and elderly, and low educated individuals invest relatively less, but reward significantly more investments. The age effects are found to corroborate existing findings, whereas those of gender and education do not. Higher expected levels of investments by others are found to have a positive and significant effect on own investments. Finally, a laboratory experiment with student subjects is found to provide a lower bound of the population level of social capital.     

Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets

Traditional methods of evaluating transmission expansions focus on the social impact of the investments based on the current generation stock which may include firm generation expansion plans. In this paper, we evaluate the social welfare implications of transmission investments based on equilibrium models characterizing the competitive interaction among generation firms whose decisions in generation capacity investments and production are affected by both the transmission investments and the congestion management protocols of the transmission system operator. Our analysis shows that both the magnitude of the welfare gains associated with transmission investments and the location of the best transmission expansions may change when the generation expansion response is taken into consideration. We illustrate our results using a 30-bus network example. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Investments and uncertainty revisited: the case of the US economy

This article examines the relationship between investments and uncertainty for the US economy, as the latter is approximated by consumer sentiment, purchasing managers’ prospects and economic policy uncertainty. Contrary to the existing literature, we provide evidence that this relationship is time varying. The time variation is attributed to the observed temporal replacement effect between private and public investments. Furthermore, we show that there are two distinct correlation regimes in this relationship and unless we concentrate on them, we cannot fully unravel the real link between uncertainty and investments. Finally, we examine whether the use of the two correlation regimes provides better forecasts for investments compared to the use of the uncertainty indices alone. The forecasting exercise reveals that the use of correlation regimes provides statistically superior out-of-sample forecasts.