重庆市税收收入与经济增长的实证分析——基于1996—2011年的时间序列数据

采用1996—2011年的时间序列数据,利用误差修正模型(ECM)对重庆市GDP和税收收入之间的相互关系进行了相关性检验。结果表明:重庆市的GDP与税收收入具有长期的协整关系,并且GDP的增长是税收收入增长的格兰杰原因,当重庆市生产总值增加1%时,重庆市的税收收入增加1.403038%。     

上海市税收超GDP增长的研究——基于产业结构视角下VAR模型的实证分析

分税制改革以来,我国出现了税收收入超GDP增长的现象,税收增长率远超生产总值增长率,且税收收入弹性一直保持在较高水平。本文在产业结构视角下,以上海市为例,用VAR模型研究三大产业对税收收入的影响程度,发现GDP增长是税收收入增长的主要原因,且三大产业中对税收收入影响程度最大的为第三产业,其次是第二产业,第一产业影响程度不大。这对我国推进产业结构升级和新的税制改革具有比较重要的解释意义。     

黑龙江省金融危机后宏观税收负担研究

宏观税收负担与经济增长密切相关,文章通过对2008年金融危机以来黑龙江省相关经济指标进行分析,试图揭示黑龙江省税收负担与经济增长二者之间的关系。结果显示该省税收收入随着地区GDP的增加而增加,地区GDP增长率随税收收入增长率的增长也呈正相关关系。为此黑龙江省需要促进经济发展,进一步规范税收征管,优化宏观税负水平。     

我国西南地区支线机场旅客吞吐量与地区GDP的关系分析

基于协整理论中的平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型,利用1998-2018年的相关数据,从长期弹性和短期弹性的视角,分析西南地区支线机场旅客吞吐量与西南地区GDP的关系。结果表明,西南地区支线机场旅客吞吐量和地区GDP之间呈现长期均衡和协同发展关系,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,会通过反馈机制调整至均衡状态,并且支线机场旅客吞吐量和地区GDP的长期相关性比短期相关性更为明显。     

上海入境旅游与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文定量分析上海入境旅游与经济增长的关系,通过协整方程建立了上海入境旅游收入与GDP的长期均衡关系,通过Granger因果检验分析上海入境旅游收入与GDP之间的因果关系,通过VAR模型的冲击响应函数研究上海入境旅游收入与GDP的短期关系.     

天津固定资产投资对经济增长影响的实证研究

本文首先运用1978-2012年天津市的全社会固定资产投资和地区生产总值(GDP)数据,对天津市经济发展现状作出分析。其次,通过协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法对天津市固定资产投资和经济增长之间的关系做出实证分析。结果表明天津市固定资产投资和经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系、短期动态均衡机制以及双向格兰杰因果关系。最后,结合实际情况对天津市的经济发展提出合理性建议,以利于天津市经济健康快速发展。     

税收弹性与税收增长--1927-1936年中国税收增长的相关分析

税收弹性是税收对经济增长的反应程度.富有弹性的税收制度可以使税收收入以快于国民经济增长的速度增长,从而能保证满足政府财政支出的需要.税收收入的变化与国民生产总值、税率和税收制度之间都有关系,受这些因素的影响,税收弹性可分为税收的收入弹性、利率弹性和税制弹性.本文以实证分析的方法分析了1927-1936年中国的税收弹性,并指出政府不断进行的整顿税基、调整税率的税制改革是这一时期的税制结构富有弹性的原因.     

天津市北辰区经济与税收分析调研报告

地区生产总值和税收都是反映地区经济发展的重要宏观总量指标．经常被并列引用和相互比较。本文从2004—2012年的地区生产总值（考核口径）、税收收入数据着手,通过分析天津市北辰区地区生产总值税负率、税收弹性等指标,阐述生产总值与税收的关系。并与环城其他区及武清区相关指标进行横向对比,分析北辰区经济增长速度与税收增长速度不协调,税负较低,经济和税收结构欠合理等问题,提出优化工业结构、增强市场竞争力,大力发展现代服务业等相应的对策和解决办法．     

北京市税收收入影响因素分析

本文以1994-2020年北京市数据为基础,运用 var模型对经济增长、进出口总额和固定资产投资与税收收入增长的动态影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,无论短期还是长期,经济增长和进出口总额都能够显著促进北京市税收收入增长,但长期影响效果逐步减弱,固定资产投资短期内能够拉动北京市税收收入增加,长期内影响不显著。为此,需要提高科技创新能力,培育新技术、新业态,助推北京市经济高质量发展,同时多种举措鼓励消费,推动税收增长。     

贸易自由化对我国地区收入不平等的影响:来自中国的经验证据

文章基于协整的VAR模型从实证的角度研究了我国地区收入不平等与贸易自由化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）地区收入不平等、贸易自由化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,贸易自由化和经济增长对于关注参数而言是弱外生变量;（2）贸易自由化在长期内减缓了我国地区收入不平等程度,但在短期内却导致了我国地区收入不平等程度的上升;（3）经济增长长期内趋于提高了我国地区收入不平等程度,但短期的影响方向不确定;（4）地区收入不平等是一个随机游走过程,不是一个含有结构突变的趋势平稳过程。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.