On the linear statistical relationship

The fitting of lines to data, when the relative precision of the measured data is a known constant, is a problem which is of some interest, for example in comparison of measurement procedures. We examine some ways of treating this problem with a view to clarifying the relationship of solutions with the Maximum Likelihood Estimate. Acknowledgement. I am grateful to Hans Schneeweiss for suggesting a strengthened form of the definition of f in Section 4.     

On the statistical identification of DSGE models

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are now considered attractive by the profession not only from the theoretical perspective but also from an empirical standpoint. As a consequence of this development, methods for diagnosing the fit of these models are being proposed and implemented. In this article we illustrate how the concept of statistical identification, that was introduced and used by Spanos [Spanos, Aris, 1990. The simultaneous-equations model revisited: Statistical adequacy and identification. Journal of Econometrics 44, 87–105] to criticize traditional evaluation methods of Cowles Commission models, could be relevant for DSGE models. We conclude that the recently proposed model evaluation method, based on the DSGE–VAR(λ)$\left(\lambda \right)$, might not satisfy the condition for statistical identification. However, our application also shows that the adoption of a FAVAR as a statistically identified benchmark leaves unaltered the support of the data for the DSGE model and that a DSGE–FAVAR can be an optimal forecasting model.     

国外生态城市的开发模式

生态城市是一个国家实现可持续发展的必然选择,通过介绍国外主要生态城市实践的案例,深入分析并探究了国外生态城市的主要开发模式及其成功经验。     

On statistical inference in concentration measurement

Summary The asymptotic distribution for a certain class of functionals of distribution functions is derived. This result is used to give distribution free asymptotic confidence intervals for these functionals; for this purpose, a strongly consistent estimate for the asymptotic variance is constructed. These results are applied to the Lorenz-curve and the Gini-measure as special cases of the abovementioned class of functionals.     

浅谈绩效考核

绩效考评是实现企业目标的重要手段,在实施中应制订完善的绩效考评管理规定,从人力资源系统管理的整体角度看待绩效考评,合理使用三种类型的考评并保证考评方案的顺畅实施。     

On the statistical differences between binary forecasts and real-world payoffs

We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and “beliefs” (expressed as a specific “event” will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits/harm from an event) and show the effect of their conflation and mischaracterization in the decision-science literature. We also examine the differences under thin and fat tails. The effects: [A] Spuriousness of many psychological results, particularly those documenting that humans overestimate tail probabilities. We quantify such conflations. [B] Being a “good forecaster” in binary space doesn’t lead to having a good actual performance, and vice versa, especially under nonlinearities. A binary forecasting record is likely to be a reverse indicator under some classes of distributions or deeper uncertainty. [C] Machine Learning: Some nonlinear payoff functions, while not lending themselves to verbalistic expressions, are well captured by ML or expressed in option contracts. Fattailedness: The difference is exacerbated in the power law classes of probability distributions.     

On measuring patterns of neighbourly relationships

This paper focuses on certain geographical aspects of social interaction and in particular on the problems of measuring patterns of social relationships between people. First the relevant characteristics of neighbourly interactions are examined, and the distinction drawn between studies at individual and aggregate levels respectively. The concern subsequently is primarily with the measurement problems at the aggregate or group level, and a technique for analysing patterns of social relations is described called the standard deviational ellipse. Drawing upon research which has recently been carried out in selected neighbourhoods of the City of Cardiff, the paper discusses the utility of this method for analysing the eommunality in patterns of neighbourly interaction as a basis for generalisation, and argues the case for further social-geographical research in this field.     

A general statistical model for characterizing the growth patterns and projecting the level of performance of family planning clinics

A statistical model for characterizing the growth patterns and projecting the level of performance has been developed for family planning clinics. The model developed is y = β (1 ? e^?αt where y is the number of continuing contraceptive patients at time t, and α and β are parameters to be estimated. Results of a typical application of the model are presented and discussed.     

On the evaluation of poly-t density functions

Poly-t densities are defined by the property that their kernel is a product, or a ratio of products, of multivariate t-density kernels. As discussed in Drèze (1977), these densities arise as Bayesian posterior densities for regression coefficients under a variety of specifications for the prior density and the data generating process. We have therefore developed methods and computer algorithms to evaluate integrating constants and other characteristics of poly-t densities with no more than a single quadratic form in the numerator (section 2). As a by-product of our analysis we have also derived an algorithm for the computation of moments of positive definite quadratic forms in Normal variables (section 3). In section 4 we discuss inference on the sampling variances associated with the models discussed in Drèze (1977).     

On the economic evaluation of future manufacturing systems

This paper stresses the need for technological competitiveness in order to maintain strength in domestic and foreign markets, reviews bases for developing and evaluating technological advances and suggests that computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) will prove significant advances in the years ahead.     

论人力资源管理中的人员测评

人员测评是一门融现代心理学、测量学、社会学、统计学、行为科学及计算机技术于一体的综合性科学。文章介绍了人员测评的主要技术,为企业人才测评提出了建设性的意见。     

生态城市规划方案的综合评价

在确定生态城市规划方案影响因素的前提下,采取层次分析与模糊综合评价相结合的方法,对生态城市规划方案作出评价,以此增强生态城市规划方案评价的科学性,提高方案评价的可靠度,探索使生态城市规划达到最佳效果的新途径.     

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of the upward or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework for assessing the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success measures) are properly formulated to account for the realized signs and realized magnitudes of directional movements. We discuss a general approach to (directional) forecast evaluation which is based on the loss function proposed by Granger, Pesaran and Skouras. It is simple to implement and provides an economically interpretable loss/success functional framework. We show that, in addition, this loss function is more robust to outlying forecasts than traditional loss functions. As such, the measure of the directional forecast value is a readily available complement to the commonly used squared error loss criterion.     

我国高校学生资助体系的思考与评价

本文通过对我国高校学生资助体系的分析,得出结论:在我国,不同的高校学生资助体系模式在资助项目、资助对象、资助资金来源和资助资金作用范围等方面均有所不同.     

管理期望——如果得不到上层的支持,质量将跌至最低水平

鲁塞尔·韦斯特考特是美国质量学会的特别会员、注册质量审核员、注册质量及组织卓越经理。他是《注册质量及组织卓越经理手册》（第三版）的编辑、《质量改进手册》的合作编辑,以及《精编质量专业人员项目管理》和《创立ISO9004：2000》的作者。