中东欧经济转型的成就与挑战

文章对中东欧经济转型进行了回顾,指出了中东欧经济转型的特点。在此基础上,文章分析了中东欧经济转型的成就,强调中东欧国家在建立市场经济体制和经济发展上取得了重大进展。与此同时,目前遭受全球金融危机冲击的中东欧国家也面临着许多挑战,需要推动许多领域,特别是社会领域的改革。     

How Much Will It Cost to Join the Club? The Extra Costs of Approximating Lithuanian Environmental Laws with Those of the European Union

This paper presents estimates of costsassociated with approximating Lithuanianenvironmental protection legislation with thatof the European Union (EU). Lithuania is oneof twelve EU associate members in Central andEastern Europe that is currently preparing foraccession by approximating their legislationwith that of the EU. The costs of fifteen EUdirectives are considered and details are givenon four directives. Necessary investments maytotal Euro 1500 million by 2015 and the presentvalue of all annualized costs is expected to beabout Euro 2200 million. In 2015, annualized costsare estimated to be approximately Euro 500 million,but these costs are only part of the totalcosts of approximation. Non-environmentalcosts are not considered. Assuming a modestlyambitious average annual growth of GDP of 2.0%per year implies that approximation with thefifteen directives analyzed will cost roughly3.5% of GDP in 2015. This level of additional commitment to environmentalprotection is itself much higher than the 2.0%of GDP being spent on average by OECD countriesand suggests the possibility of a substantialeconomic burden on the Lithuanian economy. Public budgets and households are expected tocarry a substantial portion of this cost,because many directives are the responsibilityof national and local governments. Making theright choices that are expected to be part ofapproximation with the environmental acquis is likely to benefit from carefulcomparisons of costs and willingness to pay forthe environmental benefits of approximation.     

Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries

In spite of the rapidly growing research on fiscal multipliers over recent years, little evidence has been so far accumulated in developing and emerging economies. This paper investigates the nature and the size of fiscal multipliers in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Unlike most of the existing literature, we draw upon a panel vector error correction model, which appropriately captures the common long-term path of CEE countries, while allowing for different short-run dynamics, in an integrated setup. Our main results show that the spending multiplier is positive, but low on average. Moreover, its sign, significance and magnitude vary across CEE. Finally, both impulse and cumulative fiscal multipliers are sensitive to a wide range of CEE characteristics, including the exchange rate regime, the level of economic development, the fiscal stance and the openness degree.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the European Union (EU)'s economic membership criteria for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Cyprus (the Candidate Countries) are fulfilled. To this end, I examine the actual and potential levels of trade between the Candidate Countries and the EU countries using the gravity model. The results show a high degree of trade integration between all Candidate Countries and the EU, indicating that the Candidate Countries would not face any serious difficulties in coping with the competitive pressure and market forces within the Union in the medium term. The European Commission, however, suggested the contrary for some of the Candidate Countries in its opinions of 1997.     

The impact of the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies

The paper examines the significance of what is called the Soviet trade shock on central and East European economies. The analysis involves two steps: first, the terms-of-trade effect of replacing the CMEA trading rules by market rules is estimated, and second, the impact of the loss of export markets in the former Soviet Union is assessed. The results of estimating the terms-of-trade effect for Hungary and Poland show that the income losses in 1990–1991 have not been as substantial as commonly believed (3.5 percent of GDP and 1.0 percent of GDP, respectively). The decomposition of the fall of total Soviet imports in 1991 into three categories, reflecting the impact of domestic recession, reduction of trade with ex-CMEA, and diversion of imports from ex-CMEA to western countries allowed us to estimate the CMEA-induced part of the trade collapse at 36 to 49 percent of the total fall of exports to the Soviet Union by the CEECs (except Romania), with the impact of domestic recession being in all cases stronger than the CMEA dissolution effect. An attempt has also been made to estimate the impact of the Soviet trade shock on GDP levels in CEECs. The results obtained indicate that the collapse of exports to the Soviet Union in 1991 may have been responsible for about one third of the officially reported GDP fall in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and for more than half of the GDP fall in Bulgaria and Hungary, but the impact of the CMEA-induced export fall was much smaller. The impact of the Soviet trade shock on Romania was negligible. The results obtained suggest a smaller impact of the Soviet trade shock on Hungary and Poland, as compared with some other studies. The conclusions should, however, be treated with caution, because of many untested assumptions underlying the analysis.I would like to acknowledge helpful comments received on earlier drafts of the paper by Daniel Gross, Dieter Hesse, Gabor Oblath, and Mica Panic. The views expressed in the paper are, however, my own responsibility.     

The Coevolution of Finance and Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies

The transition from communism to capitalism was necessarily accompanied by a sudden and abrupt increase in the financialization of society. This increase occurred in an environment that, even now, still has little experience with or expertise in financialization. Given that financialization occurred simultaneously with the growth and evolution of other political and economic institutions, the question arises: What was the effect on these other nascent institutions like property rights? This article empirically analyzes the relationship between financialization and property rights in transition countries. Using a unique monthly database of twenty transition countries over a period from 1989 to 2012, this article finds that the influence of financialization depends on which definition of “financialization” is used. In particular, increases in basic financial intermediation improved property rights. However, higher-order “financialization,” proxied here by the size of capital markets and the wages in the financial sector, appeared to have a negative impact on the development of broad-based property rights in transition.     

Between European integration and regional autonomy: the case of Italy from an economic perspective

Italy has experienced a double political phenomenon over the last few decades: a transfer of powers to a supranational entity (the EU) and a move towards regional autonomy. This paper aims to evaluate how policy competences are attributed to and exercised by the European, national and regional institutions. It develops a set of quantitative indicators analysing the legislative production of the EU, the Italian parliament and the Italian regions in various policy areas. The main findings indicate a certain substitutability between European and national legislation and that different levels of government share competences in a larger number of sectors than suggested by the economic theory.

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns

This paper investigates the determinants of European Union FDI in the CEECs at sectoral level. The aim is to understand whether and to what extent FDI undertaken in different sectors reacts to the characteristics of the host countries. The analysis is based on a dataset created specifically for this purpose. It concentrates on the manufacturing sectors, classified according to the Pavitt taxonomy. Firstly, data summarizing the recent trend of FDI in the CEECs is presented and then empirical evidence given to account for differences between sectors. The estimated model is a generalization of a three-way fixed effect model incorporating 'classic' variables, such as labour costs as well as country-specific variables, i.e., the stage reached in the transition process. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneity at sector level.     

Understanding the Transaction Costs of Transition: it's the Culture,Stupid

The process of transition in Central and Eastern Europe from socialism to capitalism is a cultural issue rather than a mere technical one. To support this proposition, economic analysis must explain why and how informal rules affect the results of transition.     

The role of innovation in venture capital: empirical evidence from European Union and EFTA countries

This article investigates the effects of innovation attempts on the venture capital and investment activity in the cases of the selected European Union plus European Free Trade Agreement countries using annual panel data and by controlling for real income growth and business sophistication. Our findings suggest that innovation has positively significant effects on venture capital in the cases without opt-out countries (United Kingdom and Denmark); however, these effects become negative in the cases with opt-out countries. Policy implications are provided in the conclusion section of this study.     

Unemployment and the dynamics of political support for economic reforms

I analyze the dynamics of political support for economic reforms using a version of Rodrik's (1995) two-sector model of the transition economy. The key role is played by the pattern of flows between the state and private sectors and unemployment. It is shown that while the workers in the private sector always support rapid reforms, the workers in the state sector and the unemployed will support rapid reforms only at the outset of the transition. Later, state-sector workers and unemployed vote for a reduction in the speed of reforms.     

Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies

According to the traditional optimum currency area approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate in the past. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may also signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is analyzed, revealing that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly lowers employment growth. Hence, eliminating exchange rate volatility could be considered a substitute for removing employment protection legislation.     

A Nested logit approach to modelling the location of foreign direct investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper applies the Nested logit model to a three-level dataset in order to examine the factors explaining foreign investment location decisions into 13 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over an eleven-year period between 1997 and 2007. The three-level dataset allows firm, industry and country factors to simultaneously determine the firm-level investment location decisions. The Nested logit model partially relaxes the assumption of the independence from irrelevant alternatives and tests if national boundaries affect the choice of investment location of multinational enterprises in the CEECs. In addition, the Heteroskedastic Extreme Value model is used to help identify an appropriate nesting structure. Empirical results show that the responsiveness of the firms' decision regarding where to locate capital in the CEECs to country-level variables differs both across sectors and across firms of different sizes and profitability.     

Alternative standards and instruments for air pollution control in Poland

Like other Central European countries, Poland faces the twin challenges of improving environmental quality while also fostering sustainable economic development. In this study we examine the costs of different standards for air pollution control, and the cost savings from using incentive-based policy instruments in lieu of more rigid command-and-control policies. The comparisons are based on the results of a simulation model of energy use and air pollution control for the Polish economy over 1990–2015. The model simulates least-cost energy supply decisions under different environmental policy assumptions, the corresponding emissions, and the cost of achieving the specified policy objectives. The model results suggest that incentive-based policies will have efficiency gains over command policies that are at least worthy of consideration and may be quite substantial. The size of the gains in practice depends in part on how much flexibility is built into the command approach, e.g., capacity for intrafirm trading as well as alack of technology-specific requirements. To achieve these gains, an increase in the current levels of emissions fees is desirable both to strengthen abatement incentives and to improve the capacity of the Polish government to overcome past environmental damages. However, it seems highly unlikely in practice that fees could be raised to the levels necessary to meet current Polish emissions standards. To make further headway, an evolutionary approach to emissions trading patterned after (and profiting from the experience with) emissions trading in the U.S. seems useful. The program could start out relatively modestly and increase in ambitiousness as the Polish economic transition proceeds.     

Poland's Accession to the European Union: Demand for Protection of Selected Sensitive Products

This paper analyses the expected changes in external tariffs and imports in Poland after accession to the European Union. We find that around 14% of all manufacturing commodity groups in the Harmonised System will experience tariff reductions of over 10 percentage points, while for agricultural goods tariff comparisons are complicated by very different tariff systems and may be overrated, since applied tariffs are often lower than those legislated. Based on gravity estimates we also find onlly few relatively narrowly defined commodities will experience import growth rates of above 20%. More widely defined sensitive commodities are subject to much smaller but still important import growth     

The political economy of land reform choices in Central and Eastern Europe

In all Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) land reform has been a key part of the overall agrarian reforms and land reform procedures differ significantly among CEECs. This paper, by focusing on distributional effects and political economy implications, explains why thirteen CEEC governments chose particular reform procedures. Key factors in their choices are the history of the land ownership, including the post-collectivization ownership status, length of Communist rule, the ethnicity of pre-collectivization owners, and the equality of pre-collectivization asset distribution. These factors influence the distributional consequences of the land reform, including the (potential) conflicts between efficiency, social equity, and historical justice, and thus the political economy equilibrium.     

The ERM and monetary integration in the European Union: an investigation of long-run relationships

This paper investigates the integration of EU money supplies for the ERM period 1979Q1-93Q4. An estimating equation is derived from a simple equilibrium model of the EU money markets. Estimation is undertaken using the Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration procedure. The results show that those EU members with relatively low exchange rate premia against the DM are those whose variations in the money supply have been most sensitive to those of Germany.     

A note on productivity change in European cooperative banks: the Luenberger indicator approach

The Luenberger productivity indicator is employed to estimate and decompose productivity change in a sample of cooperative banks operating in 10 EU member states. An average annualised productivity growth of 2.59% is reported between 1996 and 2003, though there is heterogeneity in growth rates across countries. Generally speaking, productivity growth is driven by technological change. However, cooperative banks in southern European banking markets benefit as much from efficiency growth or catching‐up with industry best practice. The results suggest that technology sharing arrangements and greater competition arising from deregulation are positive contributors towards productivity change.     

Bridging the gap in creative economy and ICT research: a regional analysis in Europe

ABSTRACT

Following Florida’s seminal work on the ‘creative class’ there is a great deal of interest concerning whether creativity, as an input, is important for regional growth. Answering this question requires developing a production framework that can distinguish creativity from other inputs. With data from Europe, this paper integrates the concept of information and communications technology (ICT) and the creative class into a theoretical production function. Findings reveal that not only is there a positive and interactive relationship between creative workers and ICT, but the combination of creative workers and ICT leads to higher levels of GVA growth. Moreover, creative workers were found to have a larger impact on growth in comparison with traditional human capital measures (i.e. graduates). Thus, findings from this research suggest that the creative class should not only pay attention to socio-economic preferences of individuals, but it must include wider social resources, such as ICT.