共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Fabio Milani 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(7):2065-2082
Monetary DGSE models under rational expectations typically require large degrees of features as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation to match the inertia of macroeconomic variables.This paper presents an estimated model that departs from rational expectations and nests learning by economic agents, habits, and indexation. Bayesian methods facilitate the joint estimation of the learning gain coefficient together with the ‘deep’ parameters of the economy.The empirical results show that when learning replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop closer to zero, suggesting that persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. 相似文献
2.
External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Bartosz Ma?kowiak 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(8):2512-2520
Estimated structural VARs show that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market quickly and strongly. The price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to U.S. monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the U.S. itself. These findings are consistent with the idea that “when the U.S. sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold.” At the same time, U.S. monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks. 相似文献
3.
We introduce a neoclassical growth economy with idiosyncratic production risk and incomplete markets. Each agent is an entrepreneur operating her own technology with her own capital stock. The general equilibrium is characterized by a closed-form recursion in the CARA-normal case. Incomplete markets introduce a risk premium on private equity, which reduces the demand for investment. As compared to complete markets, the steady state can thus have both a lower capital stock due to investment risk, and a lower interest rate due to precautionary savings. Furthermore, the anticipation of high real interest rates in the future feeds back into high risk premia and low investment in the present, thus slowing down convergence to the steady state. Our results highlight the importance of private risk premia for capital accumulation and business cycles. 相似文献
4.
Pedro P. Álvarez-Lois 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2006,53(8):2213-2237
This paper presents a monetary dynamic general equilibrium model featuring a strong internal propagation mechanism. Limited short-run factor substitutability and idiosyncratic demand uncertainty play a prominent role in the results. Firms are ex post heterogeneous and a well defined distribution of capacity utilization rates characterizes the equilibrium of the model. The economy responds gradually to aggregate shocks since firms with excess capacity can raise production without experiencing large increases in their marginal costs. The modeling framework presented in this paper offers a plausible microeconomic interpretation for reduced form mark-up shocks typically considered in the “new Keynesian” literature. 相似文献
5.
This paper analyzes the effect of terror on the economy. Terror endangers life such that the value of the future relative to the present is reduced. Hence, due to a rise in terror activity, investment goes down, and in the long run income and consumption go down as well. Governments can offset terror by putting tax revenues into the production of security. Facing a tide in terror, a government that acts optimally increases the proportion of output spent on defense, but does not fully offset the tide. Thus, when terror peaks the long run equilibrium with an optimizing government is of lower output and welfare. Next, we show that this theory of terror and the economy, helps to understand changes in trend and business cycle of the Israeli economy. The estimates show that terror has a large impact on the aggregate economy. Continued terror, at the level of the death toll by about the same size as due to car accidents, is expected to decrease annual consumption per capita by about 5% in 2004. Had Israel not suffered from terror during the last 3 years, we estimate that the output per capita would have been 10% higher than it is today. 相似文献
6.
Inflation and inequality 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Stefania Albanesi 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(4):1088-1114
Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households. 相似文献
7.
Jeffrey M Lacker 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2004,51(5):935-965
The monetary and payment system consequences of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the Federal Reserve's response are reviewed. Interbank payment disruptions appear to be a central feature of many US banking crises, and interbank payment disruptions seem likely to recur. Federal Reserve credit extension following September 11 succeeded in massively increasing the supply of banks’ balances to satisfy the disruption-induced increase in demand and thereby ameliorate the effects of the shock. Relatively benign banking conditions helped make Fed credit policy manageable. An interbank payment disruption that coincided with less-favorable banking conditions could be more difficult to manage, given current daylight credit policies. Paying interest on reserves would facilitate improvements in daylight credit policy. 相似文献
8.
This paper contributes to the established literature on fiscal consolidations by investigating the distinct behaviour of central and sub‐central tiers of government during general government consolidation attempts. In the light of different degrees of decentralisation across OECD countries, and the different responsibilities devolved to sub‐central tiers, we believe that this approach offers an illuminating insight into the analysis of fiscal consolidations and their success. We show that the involvement of the sub‐central tiers of government is crucial to achieving cuts in expenditure, particularly in relation to the overall size of the government wage bill. In addition, central governments appear to exert a strong influence on the expenditure of sub‐central tiers through their grant allocations, and control of these allocations appears to have a considerable impact upon the overall success of consolidation attempts. Finally, we demonstrate that there is a skewness in cuts towards sub‐central capital expenditure both when central governments cut grant allocations and when sub‐central governments engage in lone consolidation attempts. 相似文献
9.
FLORIN O. BILBIIE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2009,41(2-3):443-450
Nonseparable preferences over consumption and leisure can generate an increase in private consumption in response to government spending, as found in the data, in a frictionless business cycle model. However, the conditions on preferences required for these result to obtain hold if and only if the consumption good is inferior. Similarly, positive co-movement of consumption and hours worked occurs if and only if either consumption or leisure is inferior. 相似文献
10.
We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report that the contribution of real-time macroeconomic data to ex ante stock return predictability is similar to that of revised macroeconomic data. Moreover, the performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been similar to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data. 相似文献
11.
This note provides a method to convert the dynamic models in Cysne [Cysne, Rubens P., 2006. A note on the non-convexity problem in some shopping-time and human-capital models. Journal of Banking and Finance 30 (10), 2737–2745] and in Cysne [Cysne, Rubens P., 2008. A note on “inflation and welfare”. Journal of Banking and Finance 32 (9), 1984–1987] to concave optimization problems. We do this by introducing new control and state variables in the models. Cysne (2006, 2008) restrict attention to continuous time models and derive parametric conditions to use Arrow’s sufficiency theorem. When the sufficient conditions presented in Cysne (2006) are satisfied (but not under the sharper sufficient conditions presented in Cysne (2008)) we can rewrite these models as concave optimization problems even if time is discrete. 相似文献
12.
Fabio Milani 《Journal of International Money and Finance》2011,30(1):111-129
With the increased international financial integration in recent years, bilateral financial linkages between countries may have a growing influence on their real economies. This paper employs a structural two-country New Keynesian model, which incorporates a cross-border wealth channel, to estimate the effect that foreign stock market fluctuations may have on macroeconomic variables in open economy countries.The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on a sample of open economies that can potentially be affected by changes in a larger foreign stock market: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands. The estimation allows for deviations from rational expectations and for learning by economic agents.The empirical results indicate important cross-country wealth effects for Ireland and Austria, from fluctuations in the U.S. and U.K. and in the U.S. and German stock markets, respectively; the wealth effect is largest in Ireland. The data favor, instead, specifications with no significant wealth effect for the remaining countries. Foreign stock price fluctuations, however, still play a role by affecting domestic expectations about future output gaps in all countries in the sample. 相似文献
13.
Importing technology 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We look at disaggregated imports of various types of equipment to make inferences on cross-country differences in the composition of equipment investment. We make three contributions. First, we document strikingly large differences in investment composition. Second, we explain the differences as being based on each equipment type's degree of complementarity with other factors whose abundance differs across countries. Third, we show that the composition of capital has the potential to account for some of the large observed differences in TFP across countries. 相似文献
14.
António Antunes 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2008,55(2):278-297
A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents (with respect to wealth and ability) shows that differences across countries in intermediation costs and enforcement generate differences in occupational choice, firm size, credit, output and income inequality. Counterfactual experiments are performed for Latin American, European, transition and high growth Asian countries, with empirical estimates of each country's financial frictions and United States values for all other parameters. The results isolate the quantitative effect of these financial frictions in explaining the performance gap between each country and the United States, and depend critically on whether a general equilibrium factor price effect is operative. 相似文献
15.
I examine how transparency and interdealer trading affects prices investors pay in municipal bond offerings. Real-time trade reporting for municipal bonds started January 31, 2005. The dispersion of purchase prices fell sharply at that time. There was little impact on average markups for most trades, but they increased for purchases of more than $100,000. Bonds often pass through a series of dealers before being placed with a buy-and-hold investor. As the interdealer trades progress, trade sizes decline and trade prices rise. Markups on investor purchases increase with the amount of interdealer trading before the trade. 相似文献
16.
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has experienced an unprecedented deterioration in the level of trust. This raises the question as to what factors determine trust in central banking. We use a unique cross‐country data set that includes a rich set of socioeconomic characteristics and supplement it with variables meant to reflect a country's macroeconomic condition. We find that besides individual socioeconomic characteristics, macroeconomic conditions play a crucial role in the trust‐building process. Our results suggest that agents are boundedly rational in the trust‐building process and that current ECB market operations may even be beneficial for trust in the ECB in the long run. 相似文献
17.
We investigate the effect of patent disclosures on corporate innovation. Using the American Inventor's Protection Act (AIPA) as a shock that increased patent disclosures, we find an increase in innovation for firms whose rivals reveal more information after the AIPA and a decrease in innovation for firms whose own disclosures are divulged to competitors as a result of the law. These findings suggest patent disclosures generate both spillover benefits and proprietary costs. Our findings provide justification for patent disclosure requirements by demonstrating positive externalities: rivals' disclosures facilitate a firm's innovation. However, we also highlight that mandatory patent disclosures can impose proprietary costs on firms. These results broadly contribute to our understanding of the real effects of disclosure, such that forcing firms to share proprietary information can be privately costly but beneficial to other firms. 相似文献
18.
REBECCA HELLERSTEIN 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2007,39(6):1411-1427
Using new data that chronicle the Fed's internal forecast of the output gap from 1973 to 1998, this paper tests for an electoral cycle in the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The paper provides evidence of a dead spot in the committee's decisions before presidential elections. For given values of these internal forecasts, the FOMC is less likely to decide to tighten monetary policy in the year preceding a presidential election than at other times. 相似文献
19.
CHARLES L. WEISE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2008,40(2-3):449-462
I examine the extent to which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are correlated with the expressed wishes of private sector lobbying groups. I update and extend work by Havrilesky (1990, 1993) regarding the effect of signals from the banking industry through the Federal Advisory Council (FAC). I also construct a new database containing statements from non-financial interest groups. I find that monetary policy actions are correlated with signals from non-financial groups before 1979 but not after, and are correlated with signals from the FAC after 1979 but not before. I also find that the Fed's policy stance more closely matches the preferred stance of the banking industry after 1979. 相似文献
20.
In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries. 相似文献