Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading. A commentary paper

The paper focuses on the problem of predictability of stock market returns with disequilibrium trading. It is shown that the predictability of returns may be the consequence of quantity constraints appearing in the markets due to the imposition of administrative restrictions on trade. A relevant test of predictability for the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) based on information referring to disequilibrium states occurrence is proposed. The empirical results of its application to the WSE on a sample containing session-to-session observations from the period January 1995 to December 1999 strongly support the hypothesis of predictability.     

Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices

We examined downside and upside risk spillovers from exchange rates to stock prices and vice versa for a set of emerging economies. We characterized the dependence structure between currency and stock returns using copulas and computed downside and upside value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. We documented a positive relationship between stock prices and currency values in emerging economies with respect to the US dollar and the euro, with downside and upside spillover risk effects transmitted both ways. Finally, we also documented asymmetries in upside and downside risk spillovers and asymmetric differences in the size of risk spillovers when the domestic currency values against the US dollar and the euro. Our results, consistent with flight-to-quality phenomena, have implications for downside and upside risk management of international investor portfolios in emerging markets.     

Herding behavior in the Pakistan stock exchange: Some new insights

This study attempts to examine the presence of herding behavior in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The novel contribution of this paper is that it investigates the herding phenomenon from a large number of facets such as herding of firms towards market, herding of firms towards industry portfolios, herding of industry portfolios towards market, herding in mostly traded stocks and in large and small stocks, and herding in the crisis period. For this purpose, we use the herding behavior model of Christie and Huang (1995) on the daily closing prices data of 609 firms listed on the PSX from January 2004 to December 2013. Results show that individual firms do not herd towards market index, except when the market experiences a negative return of 5%. However, when we sort firms into small and large groups based on median market capitalization, results indicate that large firms show herding behavior in extreme market movements. Further, we find that firms in several industries herd towards their industry portfolios. However, we find weak evidence of industry portfolios herding towards the market. We also segregate the impact of financial crisis of 2008 from normal times. These findings support results of our baseline estimation.     

Modelling the nonlinear relationship between oil prices,stock markets,and exchange rates in oil-exporting and oil-importing countries

This article investigates the multivariate dependence between oil prices, equity markets, and exchange rates in certain oil-importing and oil-exporting countries by applying the vine copulas approach which offers a greater flexibility and permits the modelling of complex dependency patterns for high-dimensional distributions. Our results show that the dependence between oil and exchange rates is significantly negative during different periods of analysis, except for the British Pound and Japanese Yen exchange rates. This result indicates that oil may serve as a weak hedge against exchanges rates.     

A comparison of value relevance of accounting information in different segments of the Chinese stock market

This paper investigates the difference in the value relevance between the accounting information prepared and audited under the Chinese GAAP for A-share investors and under the international accounting standards (IAS) for B-share investors in the Chinese stock market. The study reports three primary findings. First, accounting information influences the pricing process in both the A-share market and the B-share market. Second, the accounting information in the B-share market is more value relevant than that in the A-share market, as expected. Finally, the value relevance level of accounting information in the A-share market was low in earlier years, peaked in 1996, and then decreased due to changes in the disclosure environment. However, the value-relevance level of accounting information in the B-share market had no substantial changes. Using a constant sample, control variables on firm features, and measures of traders' behavior, we obtain robust results. These findings have implications for policymakers on recent moves toward replacing local GAAP with the IAS.     

Trading profitability from learning and adaptation on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

This study proposes unexamined technical trading rules, which are dynamically switching strategies among filter, moving average and trading-range breakout rules. The dynamically switching strategy is formulated based on a discrete choice theory consistent with the concept of myopic utility maximization. We utilize the transaction data of the individual stocks listed on the Nikkei 225 from September 1, 2005 to August 31, 2007. We demonstrate that switching strategies produce positive returns and their performance is better than those from the buy-and-hold and non-switching strategies over our sample periods. We also demonstrate equivalent performance for switching with different learning horizons, implying that behavioural heterogeneity of stock investors arises from the coexistence of different strategies with varying degrees of learning horizons. Our result supports several research assumptions and results on agent-based theoretical models that successfully replicate empirical features in financial markets, such as fat tails of return distributions and volatility clustering. However, upon considering the effects of data-snooping bias superior performance disappears.     

Abnormal trading volume,news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange

This paper investigates market efficiency of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE). Together, weak and semi-strong form efficiency claim that historical and newly released public information do not predict future stock price movement. We test both forms of market efficiency by analyzing stock price behavior during times of abnormal trading volume and around the release dates of earnings information. Abnormal trading volume may be driven by liquidity demand or reflect new or private information flow to the market. Using JSE data over the period 2000 to 2021, we find price dynamics consistent with price pressure as firms experience negative abnormal returns on the day of abnormal trading activity but offsetting positive abnormal stock returns on the following day. Further findings show post earnings announcement drift on the JSE. Taken as a whole, the evidence suggests violations of market efficiency and has implications for capital allocation in this emerging market.     

The ex-dividend day stock price anomaly: evidence from the Greek stock market

This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004. We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.

Information-based trade in the Shanghai stock market

We show that the probability of information-based trade (PIN) played a significant role in explaining monthly returns on Shanghai A shares over the period 2001 to 2006. In particular, PIN, as approximated by order imbalance as a proportion of total transactions, appears to explain returns even after controlling for risk in the much-cited Fama and French [Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, XLVII, 427–465.] three-factor model. However, we also find that some of the PIN effect appears to be indistinguishable from a turnover effect.     

Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia

This study examines the potential profit of ten Variable Length Moving Average (VMA) technical trading rules in ten emerging equity markets in Latin America and Asia from January 1982 through April 1995. The average difference in buy − sell returns after trading costs for each rule and country are compared to a buy and hold strategy. Taiwan, Thailand and Mexico emerge as markets where technical trading strategies may be profitable. We find no strong evidence of profitability for the other markets. However, we find that 82 out of the 100 country–trading rule combinations tested in ten emerging markets, disregarding their statistical significance, correctly predict the direction of changes in the return series. These findings may provide investors with important asset allocation information.     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the hypotheses that the recently established Mexican stock index futures market effectively serves the price discovery function, and that the introduction of futures trading has provoked volatility in the underlying spot market. We test both hypotheses simultaneously with daily data from Mexico in the context of a modified EGARCH model that also incorporates possible cointegration between the futures and spot markets. The evidence supports both hypotheses, suggesting that the futures market in Mexico is a useful price discovery vehicle, although futures trading has also been a source of instability for the spot market. Several managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the effect of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme on German stock returns. We find that, during the first few years of the scheme, firms that received free carbon emission allowances on average significantly outperformed firms that did not. This suggests the presence of a large and statistically significant “carbon premium,” which is mainly explained by the higher cash flows due to the free allocation of carbon emission allowances. A carbon risk factor can also explain part of the cross-sectional variation of stock returns as firms with high carbon emissions have higher exposure to carbon risk and exhibit higher expected returns.     

Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets

Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns is examined under different levels of central bank transparency under an asset pricing context. Using a large set of emerging countries in a panel data framework, we provide evidence for a negative link between stock returns and interest rate differences. However, this negative effect is reduced significantly under a transparent central bank, underlying a non-linear impact on stock returns. Our study is focused on a period from 1998 to 2008 where fundamental changes in the level of central banks’ transparency were occurred. Our findings imply that restrictive monetary policies under high levels of transparency lead to smoother reductions on stock returns with significant benefits for financial stability.     

Changes in the value relevance of accounting information over time: Evidence from the emerging market of China

We investigate the changes in the value relevance of accounting information among Chinese firms over the past two decades, during which accounting reforms are launched to provide decision makers with increased disclosure and higher quality financial information. We also investigate the factors that differentiate firms showing significant value relevance improvement from firms showing little improvement. We find increases in the value relevance of some financial variables and decreases in others, which suggests that accounting numbers help to explain the pricing process of stock shares although at different levels. In addition, we find that value relevance improvements are more pronounced for smaller firms, firms with lower growth rates, and those with greater asset tangibility. We also document that value relevance improvements are generally lower in an exuberant stock market. These results have implications for a variety of information users and policy makers in emerging countries which are reforming their accounting systems.     

Microstructures,financial reforms and informational efficiency in an emerging market

This paper investigates the effects of microstructures and financial reforms on time-varying informational efficiency in an emerging equity market setting. Our data comprises of firm level data from the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange, over the period 1990–2013. Using a dynamic panel regression framework while controlling for firm size, we find that microstructures, specifically liquidity, volatility, automation and the number of shareholders have an important role in influencing the time-varying efficiency of this emerging market. The financial reforms, namely liberalisation and regulation are not found to have a notable influence. We also consider heterogeneity at the firm level, finding that the microstructures of the banking firms listed in this market have a greater impact on market efficiency, in relation to the other listed firms.     

The impact of listing Latin American ADRs on the risks and returns of the underlying shares

This paper examines the risks and returns of Latin American stocks following American depository receipt (ADR) listings in U.S. equity markets and finds no systematic change in their volatility. This finding differs from previous results for ADR introduction on European and Asian stocks, although it is consistent with several prior findings on international stock listings. Importantly, it supports the predictions of Domowitz, Glen, and Madhavan's 1998 model of international cross-listings. This model predicts that the effects of such listings will differ across stocks because the net effect is indicative of the specific trade-off for each individual stock between benefits of enhanced intermarket competition and costs stemming from the diversion of information-linked orders out of the domestic market.     

The Real and Accrual-based Earnings Management Behaviors: Evidence from the Split Share Structure Reform in China

This paper investigates the earnings management activities in Chinese listed firms and the impact of the split share structure reform (SSSREF). We demonstrate that Chinese listed firms exhibited a long-term positive relationship between real and accrual-based earnings management activities over the 2002–2011 period. This reflects the environment of weak investor protection and lack of effective corporate governance in China. Our results also indicate that the SSSREF in China has not fundamentally improved firms' quality of financial information. This may be because ownership concentration remains high. However, it is of interest that the reform has created an incentive alignment effect exogenously. We find that firms' use of discretionary accruals was constrained, and they have consequently shifted to less detectable and under-scrutinized real earnings activities after the reform. This shift is similar to that seen with the direct regulatory changes in accounting reporting rules on firms' earnings behaviors in developed countries where the investor protection environment is strong. We suggest that firms' shifting between the accrual and real-based earnings methods is an overlooked area for investors to consider in the emerging market context, and may require the attention of regulators.     

Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling

The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized selloff during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for EM, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies yield no conclusive result, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds show that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.     

Liquidity and stock returns in pure order-driven markets: evidence from the Australian stock market

This paper examines the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the pure order-driven stock market of Australia. The bid-ask spread, turnover rate, and amortized spread are used as proxies for liquidity. In addition to liquidity, other factors that have been found to influence stock returns, such as beta and size, are also considered. Seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the cross-sectionally correlated timewise autoregressive (CSCTA) model form the methodological basis for this research. A small liquidity premium is found in the Australian market, which persists for the entire year. There is also strong evidence of a negative size effect.     

An investigation of the benefits of portfolio investment in Central and Eastern European stock markets

This paper: (i) examines the potential benefits from diversifying into eight stock markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE); and (ii) quantifies the importance of country, industry and time factors in CEE equity returns. The findings suggest that substantial benefits exist from investing in CEE stock markets and that they accrue more from the geographical spread than from the industrial mix of the equities included in the portfolio. However, the returns earned by CEE equities vary dramatically over time. This variability may hamper the efforts of investors attempting to exploit the diversification “free lunch”.