HOW DO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN JAPAN COMPETE FOR REGULAR,FULL‐TIME JOBS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED UPON AN INTERNET SURVEY OF THE YOUTH*

We use a survey of Japanese youth within 10 years after high school graduation to investigate impacts of academic and social skills on their success in the job market. We find three major factors account for the job market outcome immediately after school: school characteristics and job‐placement services, academic performance, and social skills, including negative impacts of problematic behaviors at school. Second, when we run a probit regression on whether or not the surveyed individuals hold regular, full‐time jobs, we find the persistent but declining (over age) impact of the job placement immediately after school. Moreover, we find that the impact of variables pertaining to social skills remain significant even after controlling for the job‐placement outcome after school, whereas other variables, such as grade point average or attributes of high schools, are largely irrelevant to the current employment status.     

WHY DO CHILDREN TAKE CARE OF THEIR ELDERLY PARENTS? ARE THE JAPANESE ANY DIFFERENT?

We conduct a theoretical and empirical analysis of why children live with (or near) their parents and provide care and assistance to them using microdata from a Japanese household survey, the Osaka University Preference Parameter Study. We find that the Japanese are more likely to live with (or near) their elderly parents and/or to provide care and attention to them if they expect to receive a bequest from them, which constitutes strong support for the strategic bequest motive, but that their caregiving behavior is also heavily influenced by the strength of their altruism toward their parents and social norms.     

“WHY NOT SETTLE DOWN ALREADY?” A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DELAY IN MARRIAGE

A striking change in American society in the last 40 years has been the decline and delay in marriage. The fraction of young adults who have never been married increased significantly between 1970 and 2000. Idiosyncratic labor income volatility also rose. We establish a quantitatively important link between these facts. If marriage involves consumption commitments, then a rise in income volatility delays marriage. We quantitatively assess this hypothesis vis‐à‐vis others in the literature. Increased volatility accounts for about 20% of the observed delay in marriage and is strong relative to other mechanisms.     

GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT THROUGH COLLECTIVE PARTICIPATION: WHY SOME INSTITUTIONS SUCCEED AND OTHERS FAIL?

In response to prolonged drought situations, water collectives have been promoted and exist in most water scarce farming regions to help them sustainably manage groundwater resources. However, the sustainability of the collectives itself is prone to groundwater depletion and to the risk of its irreversible future loss. The role of groundwater loss risk in determining the success or failure of groundwater collectives is inadequately understood. In this paper, a stylized dynamic optimization model of institutional participation is developed and results are analyzed for several cases of collective and non‐collective farming behaviour. Results indicate that risk of groundwater loss may increase the tendency to free ride and exacerbate its depletion. This tendency may increase with a larger collective size when there are no deterrence mechanisms in place. However, when staying out threatens institutional stability, it is optimal for the profit maximizing farmer to join the collective and help with groundwater conservation.     

HOW GREEN IS YOUR CAMPUS? AN ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT DRIVE UNIVERSITIES TO EMBRACE SUSTAINABILITY

I examine the factors that influence the adoption of sustainable practices by institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States. Using data from the Sustainable Endowments Institute, I conduct an ordered probit analysis on 180 IHEs. The results show that size and wealth are significant factors in the adoption of sustainable practices and that stakeholders such as faculty, alumni, and the surrounding community also play an important role. I find no evidence that institutions adopt sustainability to attract students. Also, in contrast to the findings of similar studies on for‐profit entities, there is no evidence that regulatory pressures encourage campus sustainability. I also examine the factors that affect the institutions' decision to sign the Presidents Climate Commitment (PCC), a largely symbolic gesture. The results for the PCC are quite different than those for overall sustainability. Most importantly, neither wealth nor size are significant factors in that decision. (JEL Q2, L3)     

HOW DO SPATIAL SPILLOVERS DIFFUSE IN SCIENCE–INDUSTRY INTERACTIONS? THE CASE OF FRENCH BIOTECH SECTOR

The objective of this article is to study the interactions that exist between public research and private research in the French biotechnology sector. These interactions are observable at a double level. On the one hand, public research can influence private research, and conversely. Researchers of these two spheres develop important relations of cooperation. We then seek to identify these mutual influences and to measure their spatial dimension. Using asymptotic least squares method, we show that spillovers can diffuse through cooperation in upstream and downstream phases of the innovation process. On the other hand, spillovers resulting from public or private research, when measured by an external stock of knowledge, would be located, in so far as they exist.     

WASTIN’ AWAY IN MARGARITAVILLE? NEW EVIDENCE ON THE ACADEMIC EFFECTS OF TEENAGE BINGE DRINKING

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study examines the relationship between teenage binge drinking and three measures of academic performance: grade point average, out-of-school suspensions, and unexcused absences from school. While ordinary least square estimates show that binge drinking is associated with diminished academic performance, individual fixed-effects estimates suggest that much of this relationship can be explained by unmeasured heterogeneity. After controlling for individual fixed effects and for changes in drug use, psychological well-being, and time preference, binge drinking has a much smaller and often statistically insignificant effect on school performance. ( JEL I10, I21, I18)     

DO INSTITUTIONS MITIGATE THE RISK OF NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS?

The resource curse, as manifested by an increased likelihood of conflict over rents, can be mitigated by institutions. Lei and Michaels find that discoveries of “giant” oil fields increase the likelihood of violent conflict, but they find no evidence that democratic institutions mitigate this risk. We test whether institutions mitigate the resource curse by reducing the risk of natural resource conflicts. Our results indicate that high quality economic institutions reduce the likelihood of territorial (separatist) conflicts following natural resource rent windfalls. Highly autocratic and highly democratic institutions also reduce the likelihood of territorial conflict after natural resource rent windfalls. (JEL Q34, O13, P48, D74)     

DO PERMANENT SHOCKS EXPLAIN INCOME LEVELS? A COMMON CYCLE–COMMON TREND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL INCOME LEVELS FOR CHINA

Abstract. In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.     

GOVERNMENT DECENTRALIZATION AS A DISINCENTIVE FOR TRANSNATIONAL TERROR? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

Using panel data for a maximum of 109 countries over the years 1976–2000, we empirically analyze the impact of decentralization on the occurrence of transnational terror. Our results show that expenditure decentralization reduces the number of transnational terror events in a country, while political decentralization has no impact. These results are robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation.     

GROWTH AND VARIABILITY OF SCHOOL DISTRICT INCOME TAX REVENUES: IS TAX BASE DIVERSIFICATION A GOOD IDEA FOR SCHOOL FINANCING?

School districts in Ohio have the option of diversifying their revenue base by adopting income taxes. Using a panel of Ohio school districts that adopted a local income tax from 1990 to 2008, we find that revenues are procyclical and fluctuate only mildly. The estimated short‐ and long‐run income elasticity of school district income tax revenues is 1.05 and 1.04, respectively. We also find that the school district tax base fully adjusts to its long‐run equilibrium within 2 years. Finally, we show that school district income tax adoption does not provide more stability to total school district tax revenues in the short or the long run. (JEL H71, H75)     

SOCIAL INVESTMENT IN SPAIN: HOW DO SOLIDARITY MUTUAL FUNDS DECIDE THE ALLOCATION OF SOLIDARITY FUNDING BETWEEN SOCIAL ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS?

Solidarity mutual funds (SMFs) are a financial product oriented toward funding social economy organizations (SEOs). The main characteristic of these mutual funds, known in other countries as social investment, is that part of their management fees is allocated to support SEOs. In Spain, the criteria used in the allocation process of these funds have not been studied. The aim of this paper is to analyze the decision model of SMFs. To this end, we developed a logit regression model. The obtained results show that the decision model of SMFs promotes the development of commercial activity and favors a specific ideology and values and an exclusive relationship with the main funders.     

MONEY TALKS? AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF CHEAP TALK AND BURNED MONEY

We experimentally study the strategic transmission of information in a setting where both cheap talk and money can be used. Theoretically, many equilibria exist side by side, in which senders use either costless messages, money, or both. We find that senders prefer to communicate through costless messages. Only when the interest disalignment between sender and receiver increases does cheap talk tend to break down and high sender types start burning money to enhance the credibility of their costless messages. A behavioral model assuming that sellers bear a cost of lying fits the data best.     

DO SOCCER ASSOCIATIONS REALLY SPEND ON A GOOD THING? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HETEROGENEITY IN THE CONSUMER RESPONSE TO MATCH UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOME

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether previous results describing the effect of uncertainty of outcome on match attendance in team sports have been driven by heterogeneity in fan demand. We apply censored quantile regression methods and place particular emphasis on the relationship between match uncertainty and attendance demand, as previous results are highly ambiguous. This is more surprising, as each season association and league officials continue to spend millions on enhancing this uncertainty. We also control for season ticket holders, who are unlikely to be influenced by match specificities. Based on data from German soccer, our results indicate that fan demand shows heterogeneity across quantiles and that increasing match uncertainty of outcome exclusively benefits teams who already face strong attendance demand. ( JEL D12, C14, C24, L83)     

WHAT DO VARS TELL US ABOUT THE IMPACT OF A CREDIT SUPPLY SHOCK?

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, a variety of structural vector autoregression (VAR) models have been proposed to identify credit supply shocks. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, we show that the performance of these models can vary substantially, with some identification schemes producing particularly misleading results. When applied to U.S. data, the estimates from the best performing VAR models indicate, on average, that credit supply shocks that raise spreads by 10 basis points reduce GDP growth and inflation by 1% after one year. These shocks were important during the Great Recession, accounting for about half the decline in GDP growth.     

HOW BIASED ARE MEASURES OF CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY AND HOURS?

The movement of hours worked over the business cycle is an important input into the estimation of many key parameters in macroeconomics. Unfortunately, the available data on hours do not correspond precisely to the concept required for accurate inference. We study one source of mismeasurement—that the most commonly used source data measure hours paid instead of hours worked. In particular, we focus our attention on salaried workers, a group for whom the gap between hours paid and hours worked is likely to be large. We show that the measurement gap varies significantly and positively with changes in labor demand. As a result, we estimate that the standard deviations of the workweek and of total hours worked are 27 and 5 percent larger, respectively, than published measures of hours suggest. We also find that this measurement gap is unlikely to be the source of the acceleration in published measures of productivity in the early 2000s.     

DOES DISAGGREGATION AFFECT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE AND GDP? AN ANALYSIS USING REGIME SHIFTS*

This paper investigates the impact of policy shifts on disaggregated health expenditure‐GDP relationship in Australia. In contrast to previous studies the disaggregation is at the level of type of service delivered and not at the level of source of expenditure. Our results show that the subcomponents of health expenditure exhibit different patterns of behaviour at both cointegration and unit root stages once policy shifts or structural breaks are allowed in the empirical analysis. When the possibility of structural break is allowed we find a significant long‐run relationship between subcomponents of aggregate health expenditure and GDP that is not observed when break is not allowed. The underlying reasons for the occurrence of breaks and policy lessons are discussed subsequently.     

More than just oil and gas CALGARY'S DIVERSE ECONOMY MAKES IT ONE OF THE BEST PLACES IN THE WORLD TO DO BUSINESS

WhenpeoplethinkofCalgary seconomicstrength,theythinkofoilandgas.But,studiesshowthattherearenumerousreasons,otherthanthesuccessoftheresourcesector,thatCalgaryhasbecomeoneofthebestplacesintheworldforanybusinesstothrive.AccordingtoaKPMGstudycomparingbusiness…     

HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.
This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.     

TO LIST OR TO MERGE? ENDOGENOUS CHOICE OF PRIVATIZATION METHODS IN A MIXED MARKET

When and how to privatize a public firm? This paper suggests that a welfare‐enhancing privatization may be triggered by a negative demand shock. When the shock is relatively mild, it is optimal to privatize a public firm by means of stock market listings; when the shock is sufficiently large, a public–private‐firm merger becomes optimal. This paper also considers a government that cares about privatization revenues and about social welfare. It characterizes how the weight attached to privatization revenues and the improvement in production efficiency of the privatized public firm through a stock market listing may affect the government's choices concerning privatization.