东亚区域化进程新进展研究

<正>目前来看,东亚区域合作还比较复杂,多种发展形式会产生不同的结果。可以从东盟、中国、日本和韩国等4个方面来把握东亚区域化进程,即10+3机制的发展。由于东盟自由贸易区的发展和“中国和东盟自由贸易区”已经进入实质发展阶段,东亚区域化是以东盟为主导而进一步发展的,其他发展形式还有待于进一步观察。     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the relationship between trade intensities and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia and Europe (EU-15). It extends the work of Shin and Wang, 2004, Shin and Wang, 2005 by providing a comparative perspective between East Asia and Europe. The paper finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in both regions. The paper also supports the hypothesis that the relationship between trade intensity and output co-movement is stronger in East Asia than in Europe. The major policy implication of this finding is that East Asia needs to further strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination within the region.     

Productivity and economic growth in East Asia: innovation, efficiency and accumulation

This paper uses a varying coefficients frontier production function model to examine the sources of growth between 1987 and 1993 in four East Asian economies—Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Using data for 20 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit SIC level, this study provides the first comprehensive examination of sources of growth that allows one to decompose total factor productivity growth, separating out technical efficiency changes (TECs) from technological progress (TP). We find that while there is ample evidence of the importance of increasing inputs in growth, and there is some support for technical efficiency change, or catching up to the frontier over this period, there is weak or even negative evidence for the role of technological progress, measured as a shift in the estimated production frontier.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange rate stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to asymmetric real shocks and increases the probability of speculative capital inflows and overheating. In contrast, exchange rate stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively as transactions costs for international trade decline, uncertainty for international capital flows is less and macroeconomic stability is enhanced. Cross country panel estimations provide evidence for a negative impact of the exchange rate volatility on growth in both Emerging Europe and East Asia. Parts of this negative growth effect can be associated with exchange rate volatility caused by macroeconomic instability.     

International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues

This paper examines emerging patterns of labour migration in East Asia and related policy issues from the perspective of labour-importing countries. Following a survey of the characteristics of labour flows stemming from, but more importantly occurring within, the region, it probes inter-country differences, both in the timing of the entry of migrant workers and the degree of dependency on migrant labour in the context of rapid economic growth and labour market change. There is clear evidence that labour migration is now a structural feature of the economic landscape in these countries. The policy challenge is to design market-based systems for making the new reliance on labour inflows consistent with changing domestic labour market conditions and the priorities of national development policy, while minimising social resentment and adverse implications for political relations with neighbouring labour-sending countries.     

大国地缘战略与东亚经济合作

影响东亚合作的因素是多方面的，地区内及区域外国家的不同地缘战略诉求是决定该地区经济合作道路和前景的重要因素。不同战略力量的演化和地区战略的矛盾与冲突影响了地区经济合作的深度和未来走向。探索并构建适合地区经济发展的模式是摆在东亚各国面前的严峻课题。     

欧洲一体化历程对东亚经济一体化的启示

在探讨东亚经济一体化这一问题上,回顾欧洲一体化所走过的道路无疑会给我们带来诸多的启示。对于欧洲一体化历程的经验总结可以粗略地归结为以下几点:合作理念的确定、轴心国家的确立、利益切合点的适时选择、政策工具的有效实施以及有效的制度约束。针对东亚经济合作目前所呈现出来的多元化模式,我们不难看出东亚经济一体化的发展瓶颈在于中日韩的合作和地区利益分配中竞争和互补关系的有效协调。总之,从欧洲一体化的历程看东亚经济一体化,更应该注重确立合作的理念,捐弃前嫌。同时,东亚经济一体化也可以借鉴欧盟的经验,用具有约束力的条约机制去巩固每一个一体化的成果。对东亚各国而言,重要的是认识到一体化需要的是妥协﹐而不是对立。     

经济增长速度放慢 金融领域危机四伏—当前东亚地区经济与金融形势

目前,在全球经济增长减缓的情势下,东亚地区经济和金融形势不容乐观。本文立足全球,从政治,经济等方面切入,分析了影响亚东地区经济和金融的主要因素,提出了未来一段时期东亚有关国家的经济发展出路。     

The relationship between monetary policy and economic development in modern Europe: Problems and possible solutions

The author analyzes the risks of dismantling of the European Union posed by the current monetary policy, under which the single currency of the European Union not only retarded economic growth, but also led to economic contraction and high unemployment. Analyzing the widely debated idea of federalization as a way to tackle the challenge of Euroscepticism in major European countries and estimating the net transfers that are necessary for the proper functioning of the recipient country, the author concludes that federalization can only be considered a real action provided the current policy pursued by Germany as the hegemon of the European Union is to change. In the conclusion, the article reviews the problem of monetary independence as a necessary condition for the implementation of a national industrial policy based on the experience of France.     

Savings: the policy debate in Europe

Three issues dominate the public policy debate over savingsin Continental Europe. First, can private savings substitutefor public pensions in the provision of retirement income, giventhat the current generosity of pay-as-you-go financed pensionsis hardly sustainable in the light of population ageing? Andif so, which policy steps have to be taken to alleviate thistransition? Second, does the evolution of a 'new financial landscape'in Europe necessitate policy response in terms of taxation andregulation, specifically considering the increase in pensionfunds? And third, closely related to the other two issues, isthere too much or too little saving in an ageing Europe? Willpension reform and the new financial landscape increase or decreaseoverall saving? Do we need to subsidize saving more or lessthan we currently do? The paper reviews economic theory andempirical evidence on these intertwined issues. Most importantly,it identifies many gaps in our theoretical and empirical knowledgethat caution us against overly strong policy recommendations.     

The strategies and limits of gentlemanly capitalism: the London East India agency houses, provincial commercial interests, and the evolution of British economic policy in South and South East Asia 1800–50

This article explores the development of the London East India agency houses during the first half of the nineteenth century, and their evolving commercial and political relationships with merchants and manufacturers in the British provinces. It outlines the emergence of pressure groups in Britain concerned with influencing British economic policy in India and the Far East, and their role in shaping policy as the East India Company receded in importance following the Charter Acts of 1813 and 1833. What emerges is a complex picture of collaboration between interest groups in London and the provinces. This challenges and refines aspects of the gentlemanly capitalism thesis of Cain and Hopkins, which emphasizes both the supremacy of London-based financial and mercantile interests in the formation of British policy towards the empire, and the separateness of City-based 'gentlemanly capitalists' from provincial mercantile and industrial interests.     

"东亚的外国直接投资:经验与启示"国际研讨会综述

由世界银行研究所和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所共同主办的“东亚的外国直接投资--经验与启示”国际学术研讨会近期在北京召开。来自日本、中国香港、中国、新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南等10多个国家和地区该领域的资深专家学者与会。研讨会的议题包括三个部分:一、东亚FDI的总体情况;二、东亚FDI来源国的案例分析;三、东亚FDI接受国的案例分析。来自新加坡国际问题研究所的谢陈秀瑜博士做了《外国直接投资与经济发展:东亚的经验与启示》的主题报告。投资来源地选取了日本(世界银行顾问TsutomuShibata做报告,评论人为国务院发展研究中心对外经济部部长赵晋平)和中国香港(香港岭南大学的陈坤耀博士,评论人为中山大学岭南学院院长许罗丹)作为案例;投资接受国的案例为中国(中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长余永定博士,评论人为南开大学泰达学院院长冼国明)、菲律宾(菲律宾的MyrnaS.Austria博士,评论人为南京大学的沈坤荣教授)和越南(日本早稻田大学的陈文寿教授,评论人为北京师范大学的贺立平教授)。这里刊登部分与会中国学者对主要报告的观点介绍及其评论。     

Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses

The goal of this paper is to provide stylized facts on recovery from economic downturns and to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in promoting recovery. In particular, we examine gross domestic product (GDP) recessions and financial downturns (credit contractions and stock price declines) using data from 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies and 21 developing Asian economies. We find, in general, recovery from a GDP recession in the Asian economies is somewhat slower than in the OECD economies. However, recovery from a financial downturn is not much different between Asia and the OECD. We also find the OECD economies have been more active and effective in using counter-cyclical policies than the Asian economies in the face of GDP recessions and financial downturns. Recent evidence, however, suggests the Asian economies may have better success in the current global crisis.     

东亚货币合作的阶段确定与形态选择

东亚金融危机表明东亚进行货和由合作迫在眉睫,而欧洲货币一体化的成功为东亚货币合作提供了范例。在东亚货币合作的诸多问题中,关键的问题是确定目前货币合作的阶段和形态。本文就若干货币合作的条件指标,对东来地区目前的水平与西欧国家1979年的水平进行了比较,结论是,东亚货币合作目前只能在第一个阶段－准备阶段运作,建立真正的、有制度框架保障的、以汇率目标区为主体的货币合作体系的基本条件尚不具备。然后,文章就当前阶段货币合作的形态选择进行了深入的研究,指出,在货币合作初期,对称性的贷币合作比较合适。