The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro area and the world economy. Specifically, we simulate a permanent reduction in labor tax rates in the euro area. The effects on real activity are expansionary in both the short run and long run. Implementing reforms simultaneously across regions would produce extra benefits and make the macroeconomic performance in the euro area more even.     

How Important are Financial Frictions in the United States and the Euro Area?

This paper aims to evaluate whether frictions in credit markets are important for business cycles in the United States and the euro area. I modify the DSGE financial accelerator model developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) by adding such frictions as price indexation to past inflation, sticky wages, consumption habits and variable capital utilization. When estimating the model using Bayesian methods, I find that financial frictions are relevant in both areas. According to the posterior odds ratio, the data clearly favor the model with financial frictions, both in the United States and the euro area. Moreover, financial frictions are larger in the euro area.     

Price Shocks in General Equilibrium: Alternative Specifications

Smets and Wouters (2003) find that at short- and medium-termhorizons stochastic variations in the goods market mark-up arethe most important source of inflation variability in the euroarea. This article shows that an empirically plausible alternativeinterpretation is that the estimated price mark-up shocks representrelative price (e.g. productivity) shocks in a flexible-pricesector. Such an interpretation is consistent with recent microfindings that prices are very flexible in some sectors suchas the food and energy sector, while they are very sticky inother sectors such as services. (JEL codes: E1, E2, E3)     

Business cycle fluctuations in Taiwan — A Bayesian DSGE analysis

This paper examines the Taiwanese economy in a small open economy DSGE model using Bayesian estimation. The model consists of two countries and 12 exogenous shocks with stochastic volatility to capture the fluctuations in the business cycle. The main results are: (1) shock innovations with stochastic volatility increase the model fit, (2) shocks originated from outside the country are important sources of fluctuations in the Taiwanese business cycle.     

Feldstein–Horioka puzzles

The high correlation between national saving and investment rates in advanced economies—the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle—has been referred to as the “mother of all puzzles.” Perhaps more puzzling is that for emerging economies saving–investment correlations tend to be significantly lower, though still positive. This deepens the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle because the mobility of capital is generally believed to be much lower in emerging economies than in advanced economies, and a country with less mobile capital should have a tighter relationship between local saving and investment rates. This paper develops a DSGE model that, without resorting to any real or financial friction, simultaneously explains these two aspects of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: positive saving–investment correlations in both advanced and emerging economies and significantly lower saving–investment correlations in emerging economies than in advanced economies. The main features of the model include long-run risk, an endogenous world interest rate, and cross-correlations of national and global shocks. The findings hold for both quarterly time series and long-run averages.     

Is neo-Walrasian macroeconom(etr)ics a dead end? An assessment of recent criticisms of DSGE models

After the 2008 “new Great Crisis,” it is widely recognized that mainstream macroeconom(etr)ics—the last result of Lucas’s anti-Keynesian revolution of the 1980s, which tried to give macroeconomics sound neo‐Walrasian microeconomic bases —has failed to anticipate and then appraise the crisis. Has this crisis revealed a failure of this macroeconom(etr)ics as a scientific theory? Mainstream macroeconomists defend their models on the basis of their alleged superiority in terms of clarity and coherence. The thesis of this article is that this claim about superiority is false. The study argues that the reasons for the failure of mainstream macroeconom(etr)ics—in particular its poor predictive performance and interpretative weakness—reside in the implications of the neo-Walrasian legacy and the problems connected with the implementation of that program.     

When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account

In a three-region New Keynesian life-cycle model calibrated to Germany, the Euro area (without Germany) and the rest of the world, we analyze the impact of population ageing on net foreign asset and current account developments. Using unsynchronized demographic trends by taking those of Germany as given and assuming constant population everywhere else, we are able to generate German current account surpluses of up to 15% of GDP during the first half of this century. However, projected demographic trends from 2000 to 2080 in OECD countries (and China in an additional analysis) are much more synchronized. Feeding these into our model suggests that the average annual German current account surplus from 2000 to 2018 that should be attributed to ageing reduces to around 2.83% (1.23%) of GDP, with a maximum at 4.3% (2.7%) in 2006 (when taking into account China), turning negative around 2035.