Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging biofuel industry

This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stage interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results. First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of ‘forward engineering’, led by Chinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experience of other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences the development of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for other technology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology uncertainty in a transitional society.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

数字赋能制造企业技术创新的实现机制——基于数据生命周期理论的研究

数字技术与数据要素成为我国制造企业实现技术创新的重要手段,需从数据要素视角深入分析数字赋能制造企业技术创新的全过程机制。基于数据生命周期理论,采用探索性案例研究方法,构建了数字赋能制造企业技术创新实现机制的理论模型。研究发现,制造企业价值链上主要模块基于不同功能和目标采用不同的数字技术,形成生产流程、研发模块和营销体系全联通,在联通过程中以数据生命周期管理实现赋能,主要体现为：生产流程中,基于物联网和智能制造系统形成全流程动态反馈赋能机制,以数据的采集、传输和监控促进工艺创新;营销体系中,基于大数据技术形成全面需求双维度反向赋能机制,以数据的采集、分析和可视化促进产品创新;研发模块中,基于自身数字化升级和数字平台形成全联通赋能机制,以数据的搜寻、分享和整合促进联动创新。     

基于局部异常因子分析和多维技术创新地图的技术机会识别

以专利数据分析为基础,首先提取出待创新系统的技术创新要素,形成专利技术创新要素形态矩阵,进而通过局部异常因子分析筛选出某时间段内较为活跃的专利,并以其包含的技术创新要素为基础,构建多维技术创新地图进行技术机会识别.以煤层气开采技术创新机会识别为例,系统阐述了该方法体系的应用过程,并提出了多个煤层气开采技术创新方案.应用结果表明,该方法体系提高了技术机会识别的客观性,从技术创新本质规律层面指导技术创新活动的开展,有助于企业较好地利用当前的技术积累挖掘符合自身发展的技术机会,预判出领域及行业的技术发展趋势.     

上海市专利技术产业化发展的瓶颈问题与政策建议

专利技术产业化是指通过创新扩散、专利技术与传统技术的相互渗透,使与专利技术有关的系列产品达到一定市场容量和生产规模并形成产业的过程。本文基于对上海市专利与专利产业化现状的分析,指出了影响上海市专利技术及其产业化发展的瓶颈问题,从专利申请动机、专利审核制度、产学研合作模式重塑、失效专利的利用、专利技术产业化基地建设、创新专利与标准的协同等方面提出了政策建议。     

Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology’s progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology’s progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.     

From less promising to green? Technological opportunities and their role in (green) ICT innovation

This article aims to shed light on the role of technological opportunities for green innovation by studying the case of Green ICT innovation. We test whether firms active in low-opportunity technological areas are less likely to be innovative and whether they are more likely to change their direction of technical change. To do so, we construct a firm-level panel data set for the years 1992–2009 combining patent data from the European Patent Office with firm-level data from the German Innovation Panel (Mannheim Innovation Panel). The results are based on dynamic count data estimation models applying General Methods of Moments estimators. Our results support our hypotheses: firms active in low-opportunity technological areas are less innovative but are more likely to switch from pure ICT innovation to Green ICT innovation.     

Two-way relationship between innovation and market structure: evidence from Indian high and medium technology firms

ABSTRACT

This study analyses a two-way relationship between innovation and market structure in Indian high and medium technology firms. We perform an empirical analysis based on a simultaneous equation model on data for 991 high and medium technology firms during 2000–2015. Patent applications and patent grants capture innovation activity of the firms. We find that the market structure has an insignificant impact on innovation. A separate analysis of neck-and-neck firms also suggests that market structure has no impact on innovation. On the other hand, patenting has a positive and significant impact on market structure in both high and medium technology firms. The study concludes that in-house technology creation is a vital source of market dominance in Indian high and medium technology firms.     

Tracking the technological composition of industries with algorithmic patent concordances

ABSTRACT

Patents are a useful proxy for innovation, technological change, and diffusion. However, fully exploiting patent data for economic analyses requires linking patents to measures of economic activity, which has proven to be difficult. We construct probabilistic linkages between the U.S. Patent Classification (USPC) system and Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) system and industry and product classifications including the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), Harmonized System (HS) and Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). We use these concordances to evaluate the persistence of technology-industry relationships over time by generating linkages over different years of patent data. We find strong persistence in technology usage within industries and, until recently, relatively little change in the technology composition of industries over time. As the technology composition of industries becomes more stable, we find evidence of increased specialization. Finally, we show that industries that exhibit changing technology composition also show shifting occupational composition.     

Knowledge technological proximity: evidence from US and European patents

The purpose of this paper is to explore the correlation between the technological proximity measures in three areas: USA, Japan and the Europe. In each economic area, we use information from two international patent systems to construct the technological proximity for 240 large international firms. In particular, we select firms’ patents from United States Patent and Trademarks Office data and European Patent Office data. In order to compute the technological proximity, we follow the methodology developed by Jaffe [1986. “Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms’ Patents, Profits and Market Value.” American Economic Review 76 (5): 984–1001], where a technological vector is based on the distribution of patents of each firm across technology classes. Since the Jaffe distance assumes that spillovers only occur within the same technology class, but rules out spillovers between different classes, we develop also a distance measure which exploits the Mahalanobis norm to identify the distance between different technology classes based on the frequency that patents are taken out in different classes by the same firm. The contribution to the existing literature is to investigate the robustness of the technological proximity measure and the extent to which it may be affected by patent system features.     

东盟五国农特产品加工业技术创新能力研究——基于专利信息分析的视角

通过检索新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国及越南这东盟五国在国际专利分类号为C13(糖类产品制备技术)、A23F(茶叶产品制备技术)、A22(畜禽产品制备技术)和A01G(果蔬等栽培及设施技术)这4个农特产品加工技术领域的专利数据,统计其专利申请总量、领域分布、国别申请情况及年度变化趋势。在此基础上,对五国农特产品加工业的技术创新能力进行研究和评价。最后提出我国农特产品加工业在对东盟贸易中的技术创新目标及相应的专利战略。     

基于创新主体视角的专利交易差异与区域网络研究

专利交易是创新主体回收研发成本、形成创新良性循环的重要途径。基于创新主体视角深入探讨专利交易差异及区域网络有利于不同创新主体制定差异化专利交易政策，从而加快实现创新引领经济高质量发展。采用统计分析法和社会网络分析法，以2018年中国专利许可与转让数据为研究对象，探讨各类创新主体专利交易差异与专利区域流动网络。研究发现:①不同类型创新主体专利交易特征不同，创新主体类型不同，相关专利特征也不同；②不同类型创新主体对区域经济的影响作用不同，高等院校和科研机构主要对当地经济发展产生积极影响，企业和个人则对多地甚至全国技术发展具有积极影响。因此，不同类型创新主体应整合内外部资源，通过合作研发扩大专利交易范围；政府应建立完善的专利交易评价体系和专利服务体系，推动科技成果转化与应用。研究结论有利于促进不同类型创新主体科技成果转化，为加快创新型国家建设提供参考。     

Multivariate multiple regression modelling for technology analysis

Technology analysis is important for technology management areas such as research and development strategy and new product development. So many studies on technology analysis have been used across a diverse array of fields. Most of these were based on patent analysis, which analyses patent documents using text mining and statistics. The studies on conventional patent analyses constructed models consisting of various independent variables (technologies) and one dependent variable. But in reality, we have to consider a model that includes several dependent variables at the same time, because most technologies influence each other. In this paper, we propose a methodology for patent analysis that reflects the various response technologies simultaneously. We perform multivariate multiple regression modelling in order to efficiently conduct our technology analysis. To show how our modelling can be applied to realistic context, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to three-dimensional printing technology.     

The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study*

Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.     

技术融合对现代制造企业创新绩效的影响：知识基的中介效用

新兴产业普遍呈现出技术融合的趋势,融合创新已经成为把握产业未来发展先机的重要方式,提升响应技术融合的能力是现代制造业企业持续创新亟需考虑的问题。基于技术融合的专利网络特征归结出实践中的三类技术融合形式,应用负二项回归模型对我国汽车制造业上市公司财报和专利数据进行实证分析,探索技术融合对企业创新绩效的影响。研究发现,制造企业实施中介、接近、聚类三类技术融合均有助于提升创新绩效。同时,影响过程伴随着企业知识基的显著中介效用。特别是,中介效用中知识基的宽度对聚类技术融合的影响和知识基的深度对接近技术融合的影响更为强烈。为优化技术融合策略和提升创新绩效提供了企业管理层面的有益参考。     

中国跨越中等收入陷阱潜力研究

当前，中国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期，国家创新能力不足将导致经济增速停滞或倒退，即陷入中等收入陷阱。为研究跨越陷阱路径，在Keun Lee理论的基础上，通过分析中日韩等国家及地区近30年来在美国专利商标局申请专利的技术循环周期后发现，中国已跨越短技术循环周期拐点，正迈向长技术循环周期，表明中国已具备跨越中等收入陷阱的能力。引入人均GDP、全球创新指数、全要素生产率等指标进一步验证得出一致结论。最后，提出提升和永续保障中国创新能力的建议。     

The impact of old technologies on innovation: the case of the US biotechnology industry

This paper investigates the implications of a technology sourcing strategy maintaining a focus on the rediscovery of old technologies. Specifically, we study the different impact exerted by old technological solutions, distinguished on the basis of their organisational and industrial origins, on the innovation value. We develop a set of hypotheses about the impact exerted by four distinct types of old technological solutions (firm core technological heritage, firm lateral technological heritage, competitors’ technological heritage and others’ technological heritage) and test them on a sample of 1189 biotechnology patents registered at the US Patent and Trademark Office from 1979 to 2002. Results strongly support our hypotheses, revealing that: (1) using both firm core technological heritage and others’ technological heritage has an inverted U-shaped effect on innovation value; (2) employing firm lateral technological heritage is positively related to innovation value; (3) a negative relationship occurs between competitors’ core technological heritage and the value of subsequent innovations.     

专利战略情境下企业技术知识基础多元度对创新绩效的影响效应

在当今竞争格局中,专利是技术创新的重要载体,专利战略必然成为企业参与全球竞争的重要手段。通过建立专利战略情境、技术知识基础多元度及知识整合能力对创新绩效的影响效应模型,采用负二项回归法进行实证检验。研究结果显示：企业技术知识基础多元度通过知识整合能力影响创新绩效,而专利申请动机在上述过程中存在显著调节作用。具体为：(1)国际市场开拓、谈判筹码以及声誉动机均负向调节技术知识基础相关多元度与创新绩效关系;(2)阻挡动机、国际市场开拓、谈判筹码以及声誉动机对企业技术知识基础非相关多元度与技术创新绩效关系具有显著负向调节作用;(3)阻挡动机强化了企业技术知识基础相关多元度与技术创新绩效之间的正向关系。     

Valuation of patents in emerging economies: a renewal model-based study of Indian patents

ABSTRACT

This study uses patent renewal information to estimate the private value of patents. Patent value refers to the economic reward that the inventor extracts from commercialising the patented invention. Our empirical analysis comprises 555 patents with applications filed between 1999 and 2002. The term of these patents either ended in 2018 or lapsed due to non-payment of the renewal fee. We model the renewal decision of patentee as ordered probit where patent renewal fee increases with the age of the patent. Variables, such as patent family size, technological scope, number of inventors and grant lag, are used as explanatory variables in the corresponding regression. Hence, this paper combines the patentee’s renewal decision along with patents’ characteristics and renewal cost schedule to estimate the initial rent distribution. We find that a large number of patents expire at an early stage leaving few patents with high value corroborating the results of studies using European, American and Chinese data. As expected, patents from certain technology class enjoy high valuation.     

基于因子分析法的地区专利发展水平比较研究

专利是一个国家或地区科技资产的核心,专利综合实力是衡量一个国家或地区综合实力以及区域创新能力的重要标志。通过对2008年我国发明、实用新型和外观设计三种专利申请总量排名前20位地区的分析,运用因子分析法评价了其专利发展状况,然后通过分析评价结果指出了各地区的优势与劣势。这对于提升各地区的专利综合实力具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义,也为各相关部门的政策制定提供了理论决策依据。