An Application of an Integrated Transport Network– Multiregional CGE Model: a Framework for the Economic Analysis of Highway Projects

This paper develops a framework for the economic analysis of highway projects that is then used to estimate the dynamic economic effects of a highway project on the economic growth and the regional disparity in Korea. The framework is composed of a transport model and a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The transport model measures a change in interregional shortest distances and the accessibility due to the highway project. The CGE model estimates the spatial economic effects of the project on GDP, the price, exports, and the regional distribution of wages and population. The simulation allows policy makers to determine which highway development deserves the priority for investment, based on consideration of economic growth and regional economic equity in the long run. The simulation found that all the highway projects have positive effects on GDP and export growth as well as regional equity in terms of wage and population.     

On the need to compensate the compensating variation in CGE modeling

The message of this research is that in the standard calibrated setting of Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) models, the welfare measures typically used to compare benchmark with counterfactuals are numéraire dependent. This evaluation bias affects the compensating variation and the Konüs index of cost of living. We show that the equivalent variation is neutral regarding the choice of value units in calibrated models but would be affected as well in uncalibrated CGE models. We illustrate with a simple example and propose an even simpler theoretical solution to overcome these biases; all that is required to have correct welfare estimates is to compensate normalizing with a suitable price index. This type of correction is necessary to overcome the sometimes blind implementation of welfare measures in numerical general equilibrium analysis. We show that the induced quantitative errors may be substantial providing biased welfare estimates and misleading results.     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

Technical efficiency and region The U.S. manufacturing sector 1972–1977

In this paper we estimate the extent of technological bias in an interregional context for U.S. manufacturing during the period 1972–1977 using a factor augmenting production function approach. We present estimates of the elasticity of factor substitution for each of the 48 states in the sample using a variable elasticity of substitution production function. Next, we use these estimates to generate estimates of the rates of change in the efficiencies of capital and labor inputs and compare these estimates across states and census regions. We also examine and compare estimates of total factor productivity across states and regions. We ,find that the average annual rates of growth of capital efficiency during the period are 5.5 percent in the Northeast, 5.3 percent in the Northcentral, 5.6 percent in the West and 3.1 percent in the South. The rates of change of the efficiencies of labor are found to be negative across all regions except the South. The rates of change of total factor productivity are found to be 1.7 percent in the Northeast, 2.3 percent in the Northcentral, 2.4 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the South. We also find that between 33 percent and 56 percent of the growth of output across regions is due to technical progress.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

Quantile-regression estimates of cigarette demand elasticities for the United States

Using a simple model and state-level cross-section U.S. data from 1993 to 1999, quantile-regression estimates of price elasticity and income elasticity for cigarette demand are obtained. It is noted that price elasticity shows a sizable variation across the high and low quantity-quartiles. There is a similar variability in the income elasticity, but most of these estimates lack statistical significance. Besides providing an indication of the variation in the price (and income) elasticity for different consumption levels, the exercise suggests some interpretative caution in regard to estimates from constant-elasticity models.     

我国三大经济地带就业弹性的比较--基于面板数据模型(Panel-data model)的实证研究

本文利用面板数据模型（Panel-datamodel）的计量方法，对我国东中西三大经济地带1978～2003年的经济总体就业弹性和非农就业弹性进行估计，揭示了这三个区域经济增长率与就业增长率之间关系的差异，论证了东部地区就业弹性均明显高于中西部地区，并对它们差异的形成原因进行了简要分析。     

Economic consequences of intifada

In 2003 the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published estimates of macro-economic indicators for 2002 of the economy of Palestine. The WB used a micro-founded recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Palestine, to which shocks were applied, whereas the IMF based its estimates on a macro-founded income-expenditure model relying on more recent data. It turned out that there were substantial differences: the estimate by the WB of the real gross national income (at 1998 prices) was 25% less than the corresponding figure calculated by the IMF. This huge difference is not only relevant for a full understanding of the economic consequences of the intifada, but also for the size of the international community intervention. In this paper we propose our own evaluation with the help of a static CGE model, based on the 1998 SAM and the so-called intifada shock derived from data of the WB that we constructed for the analysis of some forms of emergency assistance in a previous article. It turns out that our estimates, based on an entirely different methodology, are remarkably close to those of the IMF.     

人民币升值对中国制造业影响的动态CGE研究

本文设计四种不同的汇率升值情景,利用一个中国经济的动态CGE模型—MCHUGE模拟分析了人民币升值对我国制造业的影响。研究结果表明:在人民币汇率升值的过程中,各行业进出口量的增长具有缩小效应,且人民币汇率升值依然会使制造业各行业产值有所上升;在相同的进口替代弹性下,出口商品数量的减少与国内商品转换弹性正相关;当人民币汇率升值,食品、纺织、化工、金属、机械行业的国内商品价格增幅随进口替代弹性的增大而降低。     

Production Technology Estimates and Balanced Growth

Capital‐labour substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of many economic models. Such models typically embody a balanced growth path. This often leads researchers to estimate models imposing stringent prior choices on technical change. We demonstrate that estimation of the substitution elasticity and TFP growth can be substantially biased if technical progress is thereby mis‐specified. We obtain analytical and simulation results in the context of a model consistent with balanced and near‐balanced growth (i.e. departures from balanced growth but broadly stable factor shares). Given this evidence, a constant elasticity of substitution production function system is then estimated for the US economy. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor‐augmenting specification (well below one). We are also able to reject conventional neutrality forms in favour of general factor augmentation with a non‐negligible capital‐augmenting component. Our work thus provides insights into production and supply‐side estimation in balanced‐growth frameworks.     

Foreign remedies for local difficulties: the case of three Scottish manufacturing firms

Literature on Japanese transplant manufacturing firms in the automotive sector often emphasise the importance placed on attitude as opposed to skills in the hiring decisions for line workers. In this paper, a case study of one second-tier components supplier for a major Japanese automotive assembler in the Midwestern United States provides the opinions of senior managers and human resource associates regarding recruitment and selection practices. In-depth interviews, carried out over a two-week period in August 2000, are used to develop an understanding of the recruitment and selection process for line workers as well as to investigate the desired skills and value of previous Japanese experience. Results of the case study analysis are compared with two models from the literature: (1) a model of recruitment and selection at Japanese automotive-related firms in Japan and (2) a model of recruitment and selection at Japanese transplant automotive-related firms abroad. Deviations from the two models point not to a new paradigm of ‘second-generation’ Japanese transplants – those that have moved into regions quite familiar with Japanese firms and related management and production methods – but rather to overall weaknesses in the stereotypical models. Managerial opinions within the case study firm place limited value on familiarity with a Japanese environment, considering such experience secondary to attitudes and work ethics that are in line with the philosophy of the case study firm.     

世界连接CGE模型方法、研制与应用

随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展,系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡模型,科学揭示各经济体的运行特征,为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架：一方面在模型的理论框架中,分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征;另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析,检验链接模式和国家间经济联系,以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。     

A bayesian approach to time-varying cross-sectional regression models

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regression models with time-varying parameters, or state vector models. Unlike most previous research in this field the model allows for multiple observations for each time period. Bayesian estimators and their properties are developed for the general case where the regression parameters follow an ARMA(s,q) process over time. This methodology is applied to the estimation of time-varying price elasticity for a consumer product, using biweekly sales data for eleven domestic markets. The parameter estimates and forecasting performance of the model are compared with various alternative approaches.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL WAGE CURVES IN JAPAN 1981–2001

There is evidence in many countries of an inverse relationship between the real wages paid to workers and the unemployment rate in their local labor market, a so-called wage curve. However, the evidence to date for Japan has been rather limited. In this paper, we estimate wage curves for Japan using pooled cross-section time-series data from 1981 until 2001. The presence of a wage curve is confirmed. The wage curve has become slightly more elastic after the bubble economy of the 1980s than it was in the pre-bubble and mid-bubble period. The unemployment elasticity of pay is greater for males than for females. We also estimate regional wage curves using time-series data. The male wage curve elasticity is larger in the northern regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku and the western region of Shikoku, while it is smaller in the central regions of Hokuriku, Tokai and Kinki.     

Double serial correlation for multilevel growth curve models

Multilevel growth curve models for repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and stand as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcome variables. In addition, these models allow the estimation of school effects on students’ outcomes though making strong assumptions about the serial independence of level-1 residuals. This paper introduces a method which takes into account the serial correlation of level-1 residuals and also introduces such serial correlation at level-2 in a complex double serial correlation (DSC) multilevel growth curve model. The results of this study from both real and simulated data show a great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those that have previously been found using multilevel growth curve models without correcting for DSC for both the students’ status and growth criteria.     

区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响

本文利用一个30区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,根据中国实际劳动力流动规模,并考虑了汇款、外地与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,定量分析了区域间劳动力迁移的经济影响。结果显示,区域间劳动力迁移可以有效改善配置效率,提高经济增速缩小地区间生活水平差距,但由于在一国内部资本流动性很强,存在"资本追逐劳动"现象,因此并不能缩小人均GDP的地区差距。虽然劳动力迁移显著提高了输出的人均收入和消费水平,但单纯的劳动力输出并不能缩小同发达地区人均产出的差距。     

MULTIPLE LABOR GROUPS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON SMALL CITY AND TOWN SAMS AND CGE MODELS

This paper extends Schwarm and Cutler (2003) by incorporating three labor groups while using their methods to source data and provide an organizational framework that allows effective and straightforward creation of social accounting matrices (SAMs) and regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. While CGE models typically describe relatively large geographical areas and are therefore not able to capture the uniqueness of individual cities or towns within the region, our model allows simulations of small cities and towns that highlight regional similarities or differences. The differing effects of both an increase in manufacturing and a change in the sales tax are examined to demonstrate the insights and regional characteristics that such methods allow a researcher to obtain.     

Public capital and regional output : Another look at some Japanese and American data

Japanese and American data are used to recover estimates of regional production functions that include government capital as an input. Estimated parameters are used to simulate allocations of government capital which would have resulted in equal per employee outputs across states and regions. Base case estimates indicate that complete equalization would have increased aggregate output by about 8 percent in 1954 but reduced it by 14 percent in 1963, in Japan, and reduced aggregate output by about 25 percent in the U.S. in 1972. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are not affected much by small changes in the parameters.