Substituting Distribution for Growth: The Political Logic of Intergovernmental Transfers in the Russian Federation

Given limited resources and economic realities, how do politicians distribute monetary transfers in order to retain office? Previous work has largely focused on two models – a core model of rewarding loyal supporters and a swing model of purchasing the support of easily swayed voters. Empirical results have proven mixed, however. In this article, we argue that these mixed results are due to economic factors, which condition politicians' distributive strategies. In our model, we consider that politician and voters are involved in a repeated game, where past expectations condition future strategy. Current (core) supporters who receive few benefits and perceive themselves worse off than other, less loyal, groups are likely to be less loyal themselves tomorrow. In our model, politicians avoid this by providing their supporters consumption benefits directly, in the form of transfers, or indirectly, via strong economic growth. Where economic growth is good, politicians can distribute less to core supporters, who benefit from the rising economy. Where economic growth is weak, however, politicians make transfers to their core supporters to ensure future loyalty. We test our theory using data on federal transfers from the Russian Federal government to 78 Russian Regions from 2000–2008.     

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

Managing wetlands: an ecological economic analysis of the Hong Kong Wetland Park

This paper addresses the question of whether the Hang Kong government made a rational economic decision when it decided to set aside land to develop a Wetland Park, or whether it should have used the land for alternative commercial developments. Different analytical methods are used to estimate the economic value of the environmental benefits of the Wetland Park： the Value Transfer Method is used to estimate the economic value oJ the ecological services provided by the Park. the Direct Market Price analysis for the economic value of the goods purchased in the Wetland Park, the Hedonic Housing Price Analysis for the value of the Park to those residing in its proximity, the Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Method for the value of the Park to the visitors, and the Contingent Valuation for the Passive （Nonuse） Values of the Park. These benefits are compared to the opportunity cost of the land and the cost of running the Wetland Park. The article concludes that if a rate of 5% or less is used to discount fiture costs and benefits, we would find that the government＇s decision to set aside land for a Wetland Park was economically sound while using a discount rate of 6% or more shows that it was not.     

An Integrated System for Management and Policy Analysis

This paper develops an analytical framework to simulate management- and policy-driven environmental changes in Swedish mountain environments. The framework is based on a dynamic model that includes economic connections between timber and reindeer. Economic benefits are obtained in the timber sector and the reindeer sector, by harvesting forest and reindeer stocks and selling the harvests in markets. Unharvested forest and reindeer stocks provide benefits outside of markets. Reindeer stocks provide benefits by supporting the reindeer husbandry lifestyle for members of the indigenous Saami population. The paper analyzes decisions made by a hypothetical planner of a geographical area corresponding to a Swedish sameby (Saami village). Decision outcomes are measured using the present value of net benefits measured in economic terms, and are obtained both inside and outside of economic markets. The final section gives examples of management and policy decisions that might be simulated for Swedish mountain environments, such as market-based policies to increase the economic welfare derived from private timber and reindeer harvests.     

Economic/ecological tradeoffs among ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation

An integrated economic/ecological model is built to address tradeoffs between biodiversity conservation and two marketable rangeland ecosystem services: cattle grazing and elk hunting. The ecology is represented by an eleven species food web in which individual optimizing plants and animals engage in competitive and predator/prey relationships. The ecological model defines a steady-state set of sustainable grazing and hunting options, and for each option, biodiversity is measured using an index defined over the eleven species. In linking the ecology to the economics, social welfare depends on grazing profits and hunter net benefits. The problem can be stated as maximizing economic welfare over two ecosystem services, subject to their sustainable use and subject to a target level of biodiversity. A numerical application with economic and biological data from the Western United States is used to determine sustainable grazing and hunting options for alternative biodiversity levels, and to select the option that maximizes welfare.     

Classifying and valuing ecosystem services for urban planning

While technological progress has fostered the conception of an urban society that is increasingly decoupled from ecosystems, demands on natural capital and ecosystem services keep increasing steadily in our urbanized planet. Decoupling of cities from ecological systems can only occur locally and partially, thanks to the appropriation of vast areas of ecosystem services provision beyond the city boundaries. Conserving and restoring ecosystem services in urban areas can reduce the ecological footprints and the ecological debts of cities while enhancing resilience, health, and quality of life for their inhabitants. In this paper we synthesize knowledge and methods to classify and value ecosystem services for urban planning. First, we categorize important ecosystem services and disservices in urban areas. Second, we describe valuation languages (economic costs, socio‐cultural values, resilience) that capture distinct value dimensions of urban ecosystem services. Third, we identify analytical challenges for valuation to inform urban planning in the face of high heterogeneity and fragmentation characterizing urban ecosystems. The paper discusses various ways through which urban ecosystems services can enhance resilience and quality of life in cities and identifies a range of economic costs and socio‐cultural impacts that can derive from their loss. We conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and challenges for the research agenda on ecosystem services provided in urban areas.     

More than total economic value: How to combine economic valuation of biodiversity with ecological resilience

The assessment of total economic value has become a pragmatic and popular approach in nature valuation, yet criticisms have been raised. One major point of critique is that total economic value bases the monetary value of ecosystems purely on the flow of human benefits of services of ecosystems and consequently ignores questions of sustainable use of natural capital per se. This paper explains why total economic value by itself is in principle an inadequate concept to guide sustainable use of ecosystems and gives an overview of essential ecological theory that needs to be taken into account in addition to total economic value to fully include ecosystem sustainability. The paper concludes with a framework for combining ecological theory with economic valuation. The key elements here are theoretical ecological insights about ecosystem resilience and portfolio theory which offers an economic perspective on investment in biodiversity. Portfolio theory puts total economic value in a framework where investment in biodiversity is expanded to cover functional diversity and mobile link species in order to maintain ecosystem resilience and so fosters sustainable use of ecosystems.     

Preference for Landings’ Smoothing and Risk of Collapse in Optimal Fishery Policies: The Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Several world fish stocks are being explored at unsustainable levels and require management plans to rebuild stock abundance. Defining a management plan is, however, a complex task that entails multidisciplinary work. In fact, while it requires solid scientific knowledge of fish stocks, the inclusion of economic and social objectives is crucial to a successful management implementation. In this paper we develop an age-structured bioeconomic model where the objective function is modified to accommodate preferences from different stakeholders. In particular, we consider important characteristics that a management plan should take into account: profit maximization, fishermen’s preference for reducing landings’ fluctuations and risk of fishery collapse. Modeling preferences for reducing landings’ fluctuations is accomplished by defining a utility function with aversion to intertemporal income fluctuations. Building upon biology literature, we model precautionary concerns by incorporating a probability of collapse that depends on current spawning biomass. We illustrate how this framework is able to assist in the analysis and design of harvest control rules applying it to the Ibero-Atlantic sardine stock.     

The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors

Every day, people make economic decisions based on the weather, affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors. In many cases, the impact of weather on sales is not constant from one season to the next. Yet, the existing research to estimate the influence of temperature on annual sales has not analysed the relationship per season, resulting in potential washout effects and underestimated weather impacts. Drawing upon French economic sectors for empirical evidence, we break down the analysis of the relationship between weather and monthly sales by season. Our methodology provides the cumulative annual contribution of weather to sales and allows deriving the maximum potential annual impact of adverse weather. With our results, analysts and risk managers can better understand the exposure to abnormal weather and consider the potential benefits of mitigating weather risk using the weather parameters we identify to structure bespoke index-based financial instruments.     

生态型土地整理实证分析——以日本家根合地区为例

在土地整理中重视生态环境是社会发展要求之一,日本生态型土地整理在达到经济性的同时兼顾了生态环境的保护,对于我国土地整理工作有一定借鉴意义。本文在综述生态型土地整理相关理论的基础上,总结了日本生态型土地整理的内涵、目标和效果,并以日本家根合地区土地整理为例,分析其生态水系建设以及与生态型土地整理相关的公众参与活动,认为要做好生态型土地整理,可以借鉴日本经验,在开展相关理论研究的同时,加强公众参与,提高全民生态保护意识是最重要的。     

基于生态系统服务价值的区域土地整理生态效益评价——以南京市为例

以Costanza等提出的生态系统服务价值理论为基础,建立了区域土地整理生态效益经济评价模型,并以南京市土地整理为例,评价了南京市土地整理项目实施取得的生态系统服务价值。结果显示:土地整理引起了土地利用结构变化,也必然引起区域土地生态服务价值的变化,而这种变化可能是正向的,也可能是逆向的。合理开发利用各类土地资源,适当增加和保护生态服务价值高的地类,补充一定生态用地,应成为当前土地整理过程中重要的内容。     

THE STOCK PROBLEM IN HUNGARY

In The Present Paper The Author Reviews The Results Of An Investigation Aimed At Estimating The relative level of stocks in Hungary in terms of international comparisons. Though international comparison was limited by scarcity of data, it has still become evident that stocks as a whole, compared to production and sales, seem to be unnecessarily high. The investigation has been carried out in relation both to the level of stocks and their rate of increase. The global volume and building of stocks, however, did not give a satisfactory explanation, and the investigation had to be extended to the individual groups of stocks separately. In order to facilitate the comparison, stocks were classified into the following groups: agricultural stocks, goods in process, industrial finished goods and manufactures held by users, and retail stocks. The classification was based on the different function of the individual groups. This classification of stocks could be compared only with the data of the U.S A. The international comparison revealed that both the volume and the rate of increase of stocks in Hungary is unreasonably high. They are high even if we consider that the growth rate of the economy in Hungary was greater than in any of the countries examined. The author refers to the fact that the stock problem was one of the starting issues in the economic research process which led to the reform of the Hungarian economic management system introduced on 1st January 1968.     

Heterogeneous capital stocks and the optimal timing for CO2 abatement

Some recent research suggests benefits to a delayed CO₂ emission reduction strategy. If the target level of atmospheric CO₂ concentration can be achieved in spite of delay, several factors suggest economic benefits to a delay strategy. However, the analyses that lead to these conclusions typically ignore or underestimate the significant heterogeneity in the turnover rate of society's capital stock. This research explores the relationship between the turnover rate of capital stocks and the delay decision using a model and empirically estimated abatement costs. The results suggest that under many different assumptions, an early start at CO₂ abatement for long-lived capital stocks would be economically optimal.     

Ecological economic benefit in sustainable development

From the concept of ecological economic benefit, I put forward the general formula for the benefit of ecological economy and the appraisal methods of the ecological economy. Theory on ecological benefit and economic benefit is the base of the benefits of ecological economy To some extent the development of ecological economy, theory and practice on eco-agriculture are both the production made from opposition and unify of ecological benefit and economic benefit. This paper discusses the ＂T＂ type saucture, which will give the theoretical bases for enhancing the ecological and economical benefits.     

Drivers of Forest Ecosystem Change in Purnapani Area: Empirical Evidence and Policy Suggestions

Purnapani area of Sundargarh district of Indian state of Odisha was primarily dominated by tribal people with natural forest ecosystems. The local tribal people were mostly depending upon forest and agriculture for their livelihood. During 1958 Purnapani Limestone and Dolomite Quarry (PL&DQ) started mining of lime stone and dolomite in the area. The total land contributed by Purnapani villagers for mining, township and railway line construction was 569.64 acres. In 2003, the mines were closed and about 2000 mine workers lost their livelihood. During the last 50–60 years, unsustainable mining activities and then their abandonment have degraded the forest ecosystem and livelihood resource base of local communities in the Purnapani area. Thus in order to identify the major drivers of degraded forest ecosystems we have conducted primary surveys in Purnapani area. Using regression analyses we find that both mining activities and passenger transport services are the drivers of population growth in Purnapani area. Livelihood of local tribal people is being positively impacted by mining activity and passenger transport services operating from Purnapani area. Fuel wood consumption increases over time due to population growth which put great pressure on forest ecosystems to change. Both mineral production and population size have impacted human well-being negatively by positively impacting health expenditure. The amount of decline of community welfare in terms of net present value derived by the communities from extraction of forest resources is due to mine spoiled degraded forest ecosystem services. From our analysis we recommend that large-scale ecological restoration is necessary to protect the environment and to restore the resilience of ecosystem services in this area.

     

Ecological discounting

Which rates should we use to discount costs and benefits of different natures at different time horizons? We answer this question by considering a representative agent consuming two goods whose availability evolves over time in a stochastic way. We extend the Ramsey rule by taking into account the degree of substitutability between the two goods and of the uncertainty surrounding the economic and environmental growths. The rate at which environmental impacts should be discounted is in general different from the one at which monetary benefits should be discounted. We provide arguments in favor of an ecological discount rate smaller than the economic discount rate. In particular, we show that, under certainty and Cobb-Douglas preferences, the difference between the economic and the ecological discount rates equals the difference between the economic and the ecological growth rates. Using data about the link between biodiversity and economic development, I estimate that the rate at which changes in biodiversity should be discounted is 1.5%, whereas changes in consumption should be discounted at 3.2%.     

Trade policy and ecology

Trade sanctions on product exports are often used as measures for conservation of stocks of living resources. Two opposing approaches are investigated. The harvest approach argues that sanctions reduce the harvest, and thus protects the stock. It is shown that this does not consider the long run effects nor the effects of sanctions on the management system. The investment approach argues that increased price protects the stock, making the species a profitable investment. It is shown that this approach does not consider the asset effects of price changes, and that the sanctions usually increase the stock in an one species analysis. If the wildlife competes for land the conclusions may be different, but still sanctions usually works. If the manager has a joint management of several species, the stock effects of sanctions are ambiguous, depending on both the species interaction, and the profitability of the harvesting from each of them. In this case it is not possible to use intuitive reasoning, sanctions give distortions to all stocks simultaneously. The threat of extinction depends crucially on the unit cost in harvesting of depleted stocks. The paper concludes that trade policy is a too general measure for the management of living resources, and may implicate important economic distortions to the ecological system.This study is partially funded by the Research Council of Norway (Environment and Development). I thank Derek Clark, Tore Thonstad, Frode Steen and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Accounting for the ecosystem services of migratory species: Quantifying migration support and spatial subsidies

Migratory species support ecosystem process and function in multiple areas, establishing ecological linkages between their different habitats. As they travel, migratory species also provide ecosystem services to people in many different locations. Previous research suggests there may be spatial mismatches between locations where humans use services and the ecosystems that produce them. This occurs with migratory species, between the areas that most support the species' population viability - and hence their long-term ability to provide services - and the locations where species provide the most ecosystem services. This paper presents a conceptual framework for estimating how much a particular location supports the provision of ecosystem services in other locations, and for estimating the extent to which local benefits are dependent upon other locations. We also describe a method for estimating the net payment, or subsidy, owed by or to a location that balances benefits received and support provided by locations throughout the migratory range of multiple species. The ability to quantify these spatial subsidies could provide a foundation for the establishment of markets that incentivize cross-jurisdictional cooperative management of migratory species. It could also provide a mechanism for resolving conflicts over the sustainable and equitable allocation of exploited migratory species.     

Ecological-economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty

Strong sustainability, according to the common definition, requires that different natural and economic capital stocks be maintained as physical quantities separately. Yet, in a world of uncertainty this cannot be guaranteed. To therefore define strong sustainability under uncertainty in an operational manner we propose to use the concept of viability. Viability means that the different components and functions of a dynamic, stochastic system at any time remain in a domain where the future existence of these components and functions is guaranteed with sufficiently high probability. We develop a unifying and general ecological-economic concept of viability that encompasses the traditional ecological and economic notions of viability as special cases. It provides an operational criterion of strong sustainability under a mild form of uncertainty and for medium spatial and temporal scales. We illustrate this concept and demonstrate its usefulness by applying it to livestock grazing management in semi-arid rangelands.     

An Index of Economic Well–Being for Selected OECD Countries

Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is a poor indicator of economic well–being. It measures effective consumption poorly (ignoring the value of leisure and of longer life spans) and it also ignores the value of accumulation for the benefit of future generations. Since incomes are uncertain and unequally distributed, the average also does not indicate the likelihood that any particular individual will share in prosperity or the degree of anxiety and insecurity with which individuals contemplate their futures. We argue that a better index of economic well–being should consider: current effective per capita consumption flows; net societal accumulation of stocks of productive resources; income distribution; and economic security. The paper develops such an index of economic well–being for the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, Norway and Sweden for the period 1980 to 1999. It compares trends in economic well–being to trends in GDP per person. In every case, growth in economic well–being was less than growth in GDP per capita, although to different degrees in different countries.