A dynamic approach to PES pricing and finance for interlinked ecosystem services: Watershed conservation and groundwater management

A theory of payment for ecosystem services (PES) pricing consistent with dynamic efficiency and sustainable income requires optimized shadow prices. Since ecosystem services are generally interdependent, this requires joint optimization across multiple resource stocks. We develop such a theory in the context of watershed conservation and groundwater extraction. The optimal program can be implemented with a decentralized system of ecosystem payments to private watershed landowners, financed by efficiency prices of groundwater set by a public utility. The theory is extended to cases where land is publicly owned, conservation instruments exhibit non-convexities on private land, or the size of a conservation project is exogenous. In these cases, conservation investment can be financed from benefit taxation of groundwater consumers. While volumetric conservation surcharges induce inefficient water use, a dynamic lump-sum tax finances investment without distorting incentives. Since the optimal level of conservation is generated as long as payments are correct at the margin, any surplus can be returned to consumers through appropriate block pricing. The present value gain in consumer surplus generated by the conservation-induced reduction in groundwater scarcity serves as a lower bound to the benefits of conservation without explicit measurement of other benefits such as recreation, biodiversity, and cultural values.     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.     

Why do ICDPs fail?: The relationship between agriculture,hunting and ecotourism in wildlife conservation

We analyze why integrated conservation and development projects (ICDPs) fail to achieve their conservation goals. We develop a bio-economic model of open access habitat and wildlife exploitation, which is consistent with farming and hunting societies living in close proximity to forest reserves in developing countries. We show that the ICDP creates incentives to conserve habitat and wildlife, but socially optimal levels of conservation cannot be achieved, because of externalities among the local communities. We show how a social planner can achieve the socially optimal levels of habitat and wildlife by a more encompassing tax/subsidy regime.     

Integrating ecosystem services into conservation assessments: A review

A call has been made for conservation planners to include ecosystem services into their assessments of conservation priority areas. The need to develop an integrated approach to meeting different conservation objectives and a shift in focus towards human wellbeing are some of the motivations behind this call. There is currently no widely accepted approach to planning for ecosystem services. This study contributes towards the development of this approach through a review of conservation assessments and the extent to which they include ecosystem services. Of the 476 conservation assessments identified by a set of search terms on the Web of Science, 100 were randomly selected for this review. Of these only seven had included ecosystem services, while another 13 had referred to ecosystem services as a rationale for conservation without including them in the assessment. The majority of assessments were based on biodiversity pattern data while 19 used data on ecological processes. A total of 11 of these 19 assessments used processes, which could be linked to services. Ecosystem services have witnessed an increase in attention received in conservation assessments since the year 2000, however trends were not apparent beyond this date. In order to assess which types of ecosystem services and how they have been accounted for in conservation assessments, we extended our review to include an additional nine conservation assessments which included ecosystem services. The majority included cultural ecosystem services, followed by regulatory, provisioning and supporting services respectively. We conclude with an analysis of the constraints and opportunities for the integration of ecosystem services into conservation assessments and highlight the urgent need for an appropriate framework for planning for ecosystem services.     

HABITAT–FISHERY LINKAGES AND MANGROVE LOSS IN THAILAND

The article develops a dynamic model of habitat–fishery linkage in which the habitat is being converted. The basic model is applied to a case study of the impacts of mangrove deforestation on the artisanal marine demersal and shellfish fisheries in Thailand. The comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on the long-run equilibrium level of effort and fish stocks, as well as on the resulting market harvesting supply of the fishery, are determined. By estimating parameters through pooled timE-series and cross-sectional data over the 1983–96 period for the five coastal zones along the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, the welfare impacts of mangrove deforestation are estimated. Mangrove conversion is expected to be a function of the return to shrimp farming and the input costs to farming shrimp, plus exogenous economic factors. The resulting aggregate reduced-form level of mangrove clearing by all farmers in coastal areas is empirically estimated across the five coastal zones in Thailand over 1983–96. The policy implications of the findings are discussed with respect to Thailand and the modeling of habitat–fishery linkages.     

成长型资源城市绿色转型研究

资源型城市必须走绿色转型之路。绿色转型是以生态优先、绿色发展为导向的经济转型,其路径选择是一个摆脱传统发展模式向清洁、循环、低碳发展的递进过程,关键是选择在成长期主动转型,核心是优化资源型城市资源型产业发展路径。运用线性规划(linear programming)方法对成长型资源城市鄂尔多斯市的资源型产业发展路径优化分析得出,煤炭产业绿色转型不能只追求项目规模和经济增速,发展煤电及现代煤化工是煤炭产业绿色转型的最优路径,煤制气和煤制油是现代煤化工行业的最优路径。     

The Dynamic Process of Economic Takeoff and Industrial Transformation

This paper studies the patterns and key determinants of staged economic development. We construct a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model populated with one-period lived non-overlapping generations, featuring endogenous enhancement in modern technology and endogenous accumulation of labor skills and capital funds. We consider preference biases toward the traditional sector of necessities, capital barriers to the modern sector, and imperfect substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. By calibrating the model to fit historic U.S. development, we find that modern technologies, saving incentives and capital scales/barriers are the most important determinants of the takeoff time. By evaluating the process of economic development, we identify that what shapes saving incentives is most crucial for the speed of modernization after taking off. We further establish that labor, capital and output are most responsive to the initial state of modern technologies, but least responsive to skill endowments, along the dynamic transition path     

Conserving biodiversity with tradable permits under changing conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags

Tradable permits are a common environmental policy instrument that has recently been applied also to the conservation of biodiversity. Biodiversity conservation differs in many respects to the classical applications of tradable permits like emissions control. One particularity is that, even if the permit system maintains a constant total amount of species habitat, habitat turnover (the destruction of a habitat and restoration elsewhere) affects the ecosystem. Another particularity is that the restoration of habitats often takes much time, leading to time lags between the initiation of restoration activities and the time when restored habitat is available for trading. We use an agent-based model of a tradable permit market to study the influence of heterogeneous and dynamic conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags on key variables of the market, such as the costs incurred to the market participants and the amount of habitat turnover. Our results show that there may be trade-offs between these key variables. We also find that restoration time lags can lead to fluctuations in permit prices that reduce the efficiency of the permit market. We conclude that temporal lags deserve a careful analysis when implementing tradable permit systems for the preservation of natural habitats and biodiversity.     

Optimal Dynamic Control of Visitors and Endangered Species in a National Park

To enable visitors to enjoy nature while protecting endangered species is the key challenge for national parks around the world. In our optimal dynamic control model, a park management maximizes tourism revenues and conservation benefits net of control costs by choosing optimal dynamic levels of conservation and visitor management. The optimization is constrained by an extended food chain model representing species-habitat-visitor interactions. We illustrate for a game bird in an Alpine national park that ecotourism can indeed lead to ecosystem degradation when the park management is more concerned about increasing tourism revenues than about achieving the conservation target and if the endangered species is unknown to most visitors. If, however, the park management is well aware of the potentially negative consequences of ecotourism and hence cares for species conservation, limited ecotourism can provide funding for species conservation which ensures population levels above the uncontrolled steady state.     

Integrating the valuation of ecosystem services into the Input-Output economics of an Alpine region

Traditional economic accounting mostly ignores the benefits provided by nature, and thus falls short in giving incentives for improving the way the economy uses natural resources. In this study, we develop a general framework for integrating the value of ecosystem services into an Input-Output Table. In particular, we integrate regionally valued ecosystem services on the supply side of an Input-Output Table to quantify what natural resources offer to economic development. Using several different indicators, we show the benefits of the ecosystem services under the status quo and a scenario for regional development. Our results suggest that economic activities should be encouraged to use the ecosystem services more intensively, while landscape development should aim at providing the required services. We conclude that such an approach can provide a platform for decision-makers to learn quantitatively about the dependency of the regional economy on natural services.     

Institutional incentives for managing the landscape: Inducing cooperation for the production of ecosystem services

Agricultural landscapes hold tremendous potential for producing a diverse stream of ecosystem services. Yet, because the spatial configuration of particular ecosystems is critical to the supply of many services, realizing this potential requires that farms be managed in a coordinated way across landscapes rather than as independent units. Under existing incentive programs, this level of coordination is typically neither required nor encouraged.Here we explore how to achieve such coordination from an institutional perspective using voluntary incentives rather than regulation. We focus on three services operating at contrasting scales, from local to global: pollination, hydrologic services, and carbon sequestration. First, we briefly illustrate how agricultural practices can diminish or enhance their provision. Next, we show how all three services require coordinated, landscape-scale management because provision depends upon particular spatial configurations, of which we provide several stylized examples. Finally, based on these stylized configurations, we evaluate the relative merits of three incentive designs-the “cooperation bonus,” the “entrepreneur,” and the “ecosystem service district”-to promote cross-farm cooperation to enhance service provision.All three incentive systems rely on rational self-interest, have cooperative configurations to promote ecosystem services across different scales, use tiered reward systems, and have a major voluntary element. They are distinct in certain key features. The cooperation bonus system rewards conservation even without cooperation but adds a bonus for cooperation. In the entrepreneur incentive, all tiers of reward are contingent upon cooperation. The ecosystem service district scheme is only partially voluntary and forces cooperation of all landowners once the district is formed. Our analysis of these heuristic alternatives integrates biophysical, economic, and institutional factors with the aim of addressing the suite of institutional barriers for landscape-scale management.     

A model of the socialist firm in transition to a market economy

This paper models the dynamic adjustment path of a socialist firm in transition to a market economy by a price shock that renders old capital obsolete. The firm can adjust with investment in more productive capital equipments. The optimal time paths of investment, output, and employment are analyzed and the impact of fiscal incentives like investment subsidies and a reduced corporate income tax rate are studied. Like output, the aggregate capital stock follows a J-curve. The conditions for viability of firms and the impact of variables such as wage increases on the value of the firm are discussed.     

Valuation of ecosystem services from rural landscapes using agricultural land prices

Agricultural lands, primarily managed for crops and livestock production, provide various ecosystem services (ES) to people. In theory, the economic value of the service flows that can be captured privately is capitalized into land prices. This study proposes an integrative framework to characterize the ecosystem services associated with agricultural lands. Using that framework, we demonstrate how hedonic analysis of agricultural land prices can be used to estimate the private values of land-based ES. The model is estimated with data from southwestern Michigan, USA. Results suggest that ES values are associated with lakes, rivers, wetlands, forests and conservation lands in rural landscapes. Ecosystem services that support direct use values, such as recreational and aesthetic services, are likely to be perceived by land owners and capitalized in land prices. Some regulating services that provide indirect use values may be partially capitalized in a land parcel's relationship to natural resources and landscapes. Other ES from the land parcel and its surroundings are unlikely to be capitalized due to lack of private incentives, unawareness, or small perceived value. The private ES values measured in this study highlight opportunities to design cost-effective public policies that factor in the value of private benefits from agricultural lands.     

生态系统服务的价格估计方法及真实增长测度

以国际统计规范中生态系统服务价值的估价方法为基础,利用市场价值法、替代成本法、影子工程法等方法,构建生态系统服务核算的动态价格体系,对京津冀地区的生态系统服务价值进行合理测度。实证结果发现,以往采用的价格体系低估了生态系统服务价值,根据构建的动态价格体系得出,2016年北京市、天津市和河北省的生态系统服务价值总量分别为27706.27亿元、5836.21亿元和104407.23亿元,分别是各地区GDP的1.08倍、0.326倍和3.26倍;2016—2017年京津冀地区生态系统服务价值增量分别为502.63亿元、628.12亿元和-1713.33亿元;三个地区中价格因素对北京市生态系统服务价值年度变化的影响最大,而天津市和河北省受到价格因素的影响较小,剔除价格因素影响后京津冀地区生态系统服务价值的真实增长率分别为-0.15%、13.11%和-1.7%。     

The conservation against development paradigm in protected areas: Valuation of ecosystem services in the Doñana social-ecological system (southwestern Spain)

The ecosystems of the Doñana social-ecological system (southwestern Spain) provide numerous ecosystem services to society. We valued the most important ecosystem services through a market-based approach, revealed-preference and stated-preference methods to assess the conservation effectiveness of the Doñana Protected Area, with consideration of existing human activities in surrounding lands. We also analysed the spatial distribution of the ecosystem services beneficiaries and the scale of their related markets. We found a clear trade-off between the local and global market values of ecosystem services because landscape management outside of the Doñana Protected Area promotes the provision of ecosystem services associated with international markets. Our results suggest that a conservation against development model occurs in the Doñana social-ecological system, in which land use intensification takes place outside of the Protected Area borders as a result of promoting marketed ecosystem services, while biodiversity conservation is the main activity inside the Protected Area. We conclude that protected areas should be part of a larger-scale, adaptive landscape management strategy in which conservation planning should be the focal element in coordinating sectoral policies in the context of social-ecological systems.     

Fishing in a Shallow Lake: Exploring a Classic Fishery Model in a Habitat with Shallow Lake Dynamics

Renewable resources such as fish exist within habitats. Harvesting activities may directly impact the habitat, beyond the influence caused by changing the balance between species. When harvesting activities impact stock size and habitat health in different ways, both states must be explicitly considered. A classic fisheries model is embedded in a habitat that exhibits shallow lake dynamics, where carrying capacity depends on habitat health and fishing effort damages the habitat. Hysteresis in the habitat dynamics can manifest itself as multiple steady states for both the dynamic and open access solutions. Numerical explorations of the model suggest that a new fishery in such a setting should often be managed to protect the health of the habitat, while it may not be optimal to restore a fishery in an already degraded habitat. Conventional policy tools applied in their classic form are unlikely to be effective.     

Energy Transition Under Irreversibility: A Two-Sector Approach

This paper analyses the optimal energy transition of a two-sector economy (energy and final goods) under irreversible environmental catastrophe. First, it proposes a general appraisal of optimal switching problems related to energy transition showing: (1) the possibility of a catastrophe due to accumulation of pollution; and (2) technological regimes with the adoption of renewable energy. Second, it numerically shows that for given baseline parameter values, the most profitable energy transition path may correspond to the one in which the economy starts using both resources, crosses the pollution threshold by losing a part of its capital, and never adopts only clean energy. Third, it extends the model to allow for additional investment in energy saving technologies. We then find that this additional investment favours full transition to the sole use of renewable energy. It is then profitable to take advantage of these synergies by jointly promoting deployment of clean energy and providing incentives for investment in energy saving technologies.     

Ecosystem services, agriculture, and rural poverty in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon: Interrelationships and policy prescriptions

Policymakers seeking to modify financial incentives to increase the flows of ecosystem services in and around tropical moist forests must consider where to focus their attention and what collection of incentives can effectively achieve policy objectives. In most cases, policymakers focus on extensively forested areas where the flows of ecosystem services between agriculture and the environment is generally characterized by massive flows of carbon and soil nutrients from forests to agriculture. In these forest margin areas the stock of primary forest is eventually exhausted and the cheap ingredients provided by nature to agriculture become increasingly scarce. At this point, policy interest generally wanes, and agriculture and the environment begin slow declines in ecosystem service exchange, often with negative consequences for rural poverty. How does one promote increased flows of ecosystem services from agricultural lands without increasing poverty when forests and soils have been depleted? Can the standard instruments, e.g., payments for ecosystem services, be effective in such situations, and if so, do the costs to society of securing these services increase? Here we focus on the flows of ecosystem services at the end of the cycle of converting primary forest to agriculture. Primary data from the Bragantina area in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon, an area cleared of primary forest decades ago, are used to characterize smallholder production systems, to describe the flows of ecosystem services into and from these systems, and to develop a bioeconomic model of smallholder agriculture capable of predicting the effects of several types of policy action on ecosystem services provided by and to agriculture, and on-farm household incomes and food self-reliance. Of particular interest is the Proambiente Pilot Program in Brazil, which uses smallholder payment schemes to induce farmers to manage land and forest resources in ways that generate more ecosystem services. Baseline results suggest that smallholder agriculture leads to a gradual loss of ecosystem services (mainly above-ground and root carbon) provided by secondary forest fallows, and that reduction in fallow age leads to reductions in plant diversity. Intensifying agricultural activities accelerates this process, but considerably increases smallholder incomes. Paying farmers for ecosystem services linked to the retention of secondary forests and the Proambiente program both increase area in forest fallow, but the latter substantially reduces farm income because of input use restrictions. In general, programs aiming to promote the production of ecosystem services should not limit farmers' choices of ways to provide them. Employment and food self-reliance issues associated with policy options for increasing on-farm stocks of carbon and plant biodiversity are also explored.     

Modelling economy-ecology linkages in mangroves: Economic evidence for promoting conservation in Bintuni Bay, Indonesia

Woodchip exports pose a potential threat to a 300 000-ha mangrove ecosystem in the Bintuni Bay area of Irian Jaya, Indonesia. The bay supports an important shrimp export industry, and coastal areas support 3000 households. Traditional non-commercial uses of mangroves have an estimated value of Rp20 billion/yr (US$10 million/yr); commercial fisheries are valued at Rp70 billion/yr (US$35 million/yr) and selective commercial mangrove cutting schemes have a maximum value of Rp40 billion/yr (US$20 million/yr).Forest management options, ranging from clear cutting to a cutting ban, are evaluated in a cost–benefit analysis incorporating linkages among mangrove conversion, offshore fishery productivity, traditional uses, and benefits of erosion control and biodiversity maintenance functions. “Linkage scenarios” are developed that reflect potential ecosystem component interactions in Bintuni Bay. Clear cutting is optimal only if linkages are ignored. A cutting ban is optimal if linear and immediate linkages between ecosystem components exist. Under a scenario with linear but delayed linkages of 5 years, selective cutting of 25% of the harvestable mangrove is the optimal strategy; it has a present value of Rp70 billion (US$35 million) greater than the clear cutting option, and more extensive cutting would yield no additional net benefits.Strong economic arguments exist for conservative mangrove clearing. Where strong ecological linkages occur, severe restrictions on clearing activities will be economically optimal. Where ecosystem dynamics are uncertain, programs reducing linkage effects – such as greenbelts, replanting, or selective cutting – will minimise potential economic losses.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.