The Value of Housing Characteristics: A Meta Analysis

This paper provides a meta regression analysis of the nine housing characteristics that are appear most often in hedonic pricing models for single-family housing: square footage, lot size, age, bedrooms, bathrooms, garage, swimming pool, fireplace, and air conditioning. Meta regression analysis is useful for comparing the estimated regression coefficients from different studies. The goal in this study is to determine if the estimated coefficients vary by geographical location, time, type of data, and model specification. The results show that the estimated coefficients for some characteristics vary significantly by geographical location. These include square footage, lot size, age, bathrooms, swimming pool, and air conditioning. Controlling for time shows that the effects of these housing characteristics on house price have not changed over time. Controlling for type of data produces differences in coefficients for bathrooms. Controlling for wealth as measured by median household income has no significant impact on the coefficients for the housing characteristics. If the study controlled for square footage, the coefficients for lot size decrease. Controlling for the size of the hedonic model affects the coefficient for square footage.     

Evidence of Information Asymmetries in the Market for Residential Condominiums

Previous research (Rutherford et al. 2005; Levitt and Syverson 2005) identify and quantify agency problems in the brokerage of single-family houses. Real estate agents are found to receive a premium when selling their own houses in comparison to similar client-owned houses. Given the homogeneity of the condominium market in comparison to the single-family house market, we use a large sample of condominium transactions to examine if agency problems exist in the condominium market. Controlling for sample selection and endogeneity bias of the data, we find evidence for a similar price premium for agent-owned condominiums. In contrast to the results for single-family houses in the same geographic market, we find that agent-owned condominiums must stay on the market longer to receive a higher price.

Time Varying Market Leverage, the Market Risk Premium and the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that, when as usual the market portfolio is proxied by a share portfolio, then the conventional Ibbotson (1999) estimator of the market risk premium violates Miller–Modigliani (1958 and 1963) propositions II and III. A new estimator of the market risk premium is proposed which is free of these defects. In addition, across the range of market leverages experienced in the US in the period 1952–1997, it generates estimates of the market risk premium that differ from those generated by the Ibbotson methodology by up to 2.5 percentage points, and weighted average costs of capital for firms that differ by up to 2.6 percentage points.     

Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin (2004), and Lin and Vandell (2001, 2005), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions.      

A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis*

By splitting the spatial effects into building and neighborhood effects, this paper develops a two order spatio-temporal autoregressive model to deal with both the spatio-temporal autocorrelations and the heteroscedasticity problem arising from the nature of multi-unit residential real estate data. The empirical results based on 54,282 condominium transactions in Singapore between 1990 and 1999 show that in the multi-unit residential market, a two order spatio-temporal autoregressive model incorporates more spatial information into the model, thus outperforming the models originally developed in the market for single-family homes. This implies that the specification of a spatio-temporal model should consider the physical market structure as it affects the spatial process. It is found that the Bayesian estimation method can produce more robust coefficients by efficiently detecting and correcting heteroscedasticity, indicating that the Bayesian estimation method is more suitable for estimating a real estate hedonic model than the conventional OLS estimation. It is also found that there is a trade off between the heteroscedastic robustness and the incorporation of spatial information into the model estimation. The model is then used to construct building-specific price indices. The results show that the price indices for different condominiums and the buildings within a condominium do behave differently, especially when compared with the aggregate market indices.This paper was presented at the Singapore–Hong Kong International Real Estate Research Symposium, organized by the Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, from 18 to 19 July, 2003.     

Adjustment of the Stamp Duty on Stock Transactions and Its Effect on the Chinese Stock Market

This paper studies how the last three adjustments of the stamp duty on stock transactions (SDST) have affected trading behavior on the Chinese stock market. To exclude other shocks from our event study, we focus only on the SDST's short-term effects. Based on an interval autoregressive (IAR) model, we find that the SDST's effects on interval return are trivial; moreover, its ability to influence market volatility and trading volume is cast into doubt. Our empirical evidence lends support to the view that in China the SDST is not an effective policy tool.     

债券市场与股票市场的动态相关性研究

本文使用非对称动态条件相关系数(ADCC)模型,研究债券市场与股票市场的相关系数随时间变化的情况。发现由于经济运行情况和宏观政策等外部的不确定因素的影响,两个市场的相关关系存在结构性变化,同时两个市场对冲击的反应程度也不尽相同。本文还揭示出对股市-债市联动来说,其相关系数受到联合负冲击的影响要大于联合正冲击的影响;而对股市-股市联动来说,联合正冲击的影响要大于联合负冲击的影响。本研究对投资组合的构建、金融市场监管和风险控制有重要价值。     

Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm

This paper contains an empirical study of the rental term structure in a property market that included a dramatic boom and bust cycle. The study is applied to office leases in commercial properties located in Stockholm CBD, Sweden. The time period under study is 1977–1991. The number of observations (lease contracts) that we were able to make full use of in the regression analyses is n=861. For seven out of fifteen years studied, a significant term structure was observed. The estimated hedonic rent equation was also used to construct an office rental index.     

浅析我国资本市场中股市与债市的失衡问题--兼论股票市场与债券市场对金融市场发展的影响

我国的资本市场目前存在着比较严重的结构失衡问题 ,这将制约资本市场发挥其应有的作用。本文主要对我国资本市场中存在的股市与债市的失衡问题进行了分析 ,并从资本市场与金融市场的相关关系角度 ,论述“只有保持资本市场中股市与债市的共存与协调比例发展 ,才会有助于资本市场或金融市场对于一国经济发展产生积极影响”这一观点     

住房市场过度投资效应检验

为了验证对住房投资是否存在过度投资,通过对我国2001年第一季度至2011年第四季度的住房投资、非住房投资和总产出的协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型的估计,和两部门模型的建立、经验数据的模拟,其结果表明：（1）从长期协整关系看,中国经济增长受住房投资增长影响强烈,并且住房投资对非住房投资存在明显的＂挤出效应＂;（2）房地产部门资本边际收益率平均约为其他部门资本边际收益率的20%,房地产过度投资明显。回顾宏观经济的运行,认为住房投资推动通货膨胀增长的机制仍然存在,建议提高房地产保有成本,从而降低房地产需求,结合金融市场改革,国内经济结构调整才能实现。     

The Impact of Small Brownfields and Greenspaces on Residential Property Values

Using a hedonic pricing model, this paper investigates the responsiveness of residential property values in a well-defined inner-city neighborhood of Kenosha, Wisconsin, to the presence of two small former industrial sites contaminated by various environmental pollutants, or brownfields, and a local neighborhood park, or greenspace. Using readily available data on sales and assessments for residential property in close proximity to the brownfields and the greenspace, we estimate well-behaved and statistically significant property value gradients with respect to the park, the environmental amenity, and the brownfields, the environmental disamenities. These functions are then used to estimate the possible impact that brownfield remediation may have on total property value. We estimate that remediation and redevelopment of the brownfields into greenspaces would increase property values for the 890 neighborhood residences between $2.40 and $7.01 million. These results suggest that small brownfields have a measurable impact on property values and that readily accessible data can be used to help local policymakers make decisions on remediation issues.     

个贷违约率与宏观经济指标相关性研究

本文将个人住房抵押贷款违约率作为因变量,选择可能对其有影响的主要宏观经济指标作为自变量,建立自变量与因变量之间的多元线性回归模型,运用1994～2009年第一季度间美国有关季度数据分阶段对该假设模型进行实证比较分析和检验,得出在不同宏观经济环境下各指标变量与个人住房抵押贷款违约率的影响关系,并尝试对与常理相矛盾的实证结果进行分析与解释。本研究对个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的管理及相关研究判断具有实证价值和现实意义。     

我国银行间债券市场属性研究

银行间债券市场是传导货币政策的重要环节,2009年成为应对国际金融危机的适度宽松货币政策的重要微调传导渠道。对其属性的正确判断,直接影响到货币当局选择政策工具的准确性和分析政策效果的可靠性。理论分析表明,银行间债券市场具有资本市场属性并且不断加强,是金融体系为适应经济发展要求而进行金融功能自我强化的必然结果;实证结果表明:我国银行间债券市场属性正处于一个在保持原有货币市场属性的基础上,资本市场属性不断加强的阶段。银行间债券市场资本市场属性的增强容易造成货币流通速度不稳定,可能会削弱原有货币政策工具作用效力,影响货币政策的有效性,这将为今后货币政策的制定和实施带来新的挑战。     

A Comparative Analysis of the Market Model and the Multiple-Factor Market Model

This study uses the framework of Patell (1979) to determine whether a multiple-factor market model or a traditional market model is more effective for information content studies of multinational firms. The multiple-factor market model is found to be superior to the traditional market model. Researchers wishing to test for information content for events with long event windows should consider using multiple factor models rather than the traditional market model, as it will increase the power of the test.     

浅析我国场外交易市场的发展

场外交易市场在完善的多层次的资本市场体系中不可或缺,在现代资本市场体系中发挥着不可替代的作用。借鉴其他国家或地区的成功经验,发展适合我国国情的不同层次的场外交易市场必须提上日程。     

Understanding Housing Market Volatility

The Campbell–Shiller present value formula implies a factor structure for the price–rent ratio of housing market. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose the price–rent ratios of 23 major housing markets into a national factor and independent local factors, and we link these factors to the economic fundamentals of the housing markets. We find that a large fraction of housing market volatility is local and that the national factor has become more important than local factors in driving housing market volatility since 1999, consistent with the findings in Del Negro and Otrok (2007). The local volatilities mostly are due to time variations of idiosyncratic housing market risk premia, not local growth. At the aggregate level, the growth and interest rate factors jointly account for less than half of the total variation in the price–rent ratio. The rest is due to the aggregate housing market risk premium and a pricing error. We find evidence that the pricing error is related to money illusion, especially at the onset of the recent housing market bubble. The rapid rise in housing prices prior to the 2008 financial crisis was accompanied by both a large increase in the pricing error and a large decrease in the housing market risk premium.     

Dynamics of Urban Residential Property Prices— A Case Study of the Manhattan Market

In a multivariate vector autoregression framework, this paper investigates the weak efficiency of the urban residential real estate market and the cause of weak efficiency. An error correction model is used to estimate long-term relationships among apartment prices and adjustment speed from disequilibrium to equilibrium. Based on a unique dataset of the Manhattan market, the efficiency of this market, seasonal stationarity of property prices, and the weak exogeneity of leading sub-markets are studied. Our results indicate that, in a market of less heterogeneity and higher transaction volumes, the weak efficiency hypothesis is rejected as in previous studies. This result implies that heterogeneity and lack of transaction information may not be the direct source of market inefficiency. Meanwhile, it is found that there are stable long-term relations among prices of different sub-markets. Interestingly, the price of one-bedroom co-operatives (co-op) is weakly exogenous. This implies that the starting co-op for most home buyers in urban areas is a leading indicator of the entire market, which contradicts the claim that high-end luxury co-op leads the market.     

基于时间序列模型的中国GDP增长预测分析

作为度量一个国家或地区所有常住单位在一定时期之内所生产和所提供的最终产品或服务的重要总量指标,如果能够对GDP做出正确的预测,必然可以有效引导宏观经济健康发展,为高层管理部门提供决策依据.选用适合短期预测的ARIMA模型对中国1952～2010年的GDP进行计量建模分析,预测结果认为未来五年中国的经济增长仍将处于一个水平较高的上升通道.     

我国公司债券市场发展模式探讨

本文选择美国债券市场作为我国债券市场的参照,通过对美国债券市场以及国内其他类型债券市场的相关制度和规定的总结、思考,认为我国公司债券市场应该由证监会统一监管,采取核准制发行并逐步向注册制发行过渡,在面向机构投资者的银行间场外交易市场交易;应该充分发挥自律组织对监管的补充作用,鼓励私募发行以发挥其对公开发行的补充作用,完善做市商制度以引导其对场外交易市场的积极作用.     

Environmental Conditions,Reservation Prices,and Time on the Market for Housing

A general analytical model to describe the impact of environmental disamenities on duration of sales is derived. A statistical technique to recover a sellers reservation price is proposed. An econometric procedure that consistently estimates market duration and a sellers reservation price is described. An application to the impact of highway noise on property values and market duration is presented. The estimation results show that, while highway noise has a significant negative impact on forming reservation prices and predicting sale prices, the noise effect on duration of sales is not statistically significant. Empirical evidence also shows a negative impact of market duration on reservation prices, which indicates an updating process for reservation prices over time.