Bank capital and lending: Evidence of nonlinearity from Indonesia

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. Using bank data for the period 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q4, we estimate dynamic panel data models of bank lending. We find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth. Specifically, the response of weakly capitalized banks to changes in their capital positions is larger than that of strongly capitalized banks. This non-linearity implies that not only the level of capital but also its distribution across banks in the system affects the transmission of shocks to aggregate lending. Likewise, the effects of bank recapitalization on loan growth depend on banks’ starting capital positions and the size and distribution of capital injections.     

The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S.

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the United States’ bank recapitalization program, the centerpiece of the United States’ $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), on bank portfolios. Through superior empirical analysis and correct model specification, our findings overturn much of the existing literature on the effectiveness of capital injections into the banking sector in Japan and the United States. We show that the TARP program did not achieve the stated policy objective of stimulating bank lending. On the contrary, we find evidence that recipient banks grew assets significantly slower, particularly heavily risk-weighted assets such as loans. These findings are robust to various empirical specifications, including two-stage least squares estimation using instrumental variables, difference-in-difference techniques and generalized method of moments. These techniques control for pre-existing trends in loan growth while addressing potential endogeneity bias.     

The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan

This study examines the effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan. Based on a reading of the “business revitalization plan” submitted by banks requesting government funds, we identify four primary goals for the capital injection plan in Japan: (1) to increase the bank capital ratios; (2) to increase write-offs of non-performing loans; (3) to increase lending, in particular to small and medium enterprises, in order to avoid a “credit crunch”; (4) to encourage restructuring. Using a panel of individual bank data, we empirically estimate the effectiveness of the Japanese government policy of public fund injection in achieving the first three of these stated goals. Our empirical analysis reveals that, in general, the capital injections into the large internationally active banks were more effective than those into the smaller domestic banks in Japan. In addition, the second round capital injection, administered in 1998, was more effective than the first round, administered in 1997. The first capital injection in 1997 mostly served as a stop-gap measure to help the large international banks clear the 8% capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) required under the Basel Accord and did not make much contribution to the other policy objectives. The second round of capital injections in 1998 were more effective, boosting capital adequacy ratios for the domestic as well as international banks and supporting other policy objectives as well by stimulating banks to write off bad loans and increase domestic lending, in particular to small and medium enterprises.     

How does capital buffer affect bank risk-taking? New evidence from China using quantile regression

We present evidence of nonlinearity and heterogeneity relation between capital buffer and risk-taking for the Chinese banking system. We use quantile regression methods on a data set of 135 Chinese banks during 2004–2017. Our results suggest that bank capital buffer has a robust U-shaped association with bank risk-taking. This effect is more significant for banks that at the upper tail of risk-taking distribution. Moreover, we demonstrate for the first time that the turning point of capital buffer decreases throughout the risk-taking distribution. These findings offer important policy implications that continuously increasing bank capital requirement does not continuously lead to lower risk-taking, instead, requiring banks to build up too much capital buffer is more likely to result in greater risk-taking for high-risk banks.     

Does a large loss of bank capital cause Evergreening? Evidence from Japan

Using the real estate lending share of the bank’s loan portfolio at the peak of the land-price bubble as an instrument for bank capital, we identify the impact of capital adequacy on the allocation of bank lending under the Basel regulatory framework. We find that, in Japan, a large loss of bank capital caused by the regulator’s excessively tough stance towards banks not only induced the contraction of the bank lending supply but also the banks’ reallocation of their lending portfolios to financially unhealthy industries with a higher concentration of non-performing loans.     

Commercial banking in the United States: Japanese Commercial banks' presence

Presence of foreign commercial banks, especially the Japanese Commercial banks, in the United States has become the subject of much attention. As of December 1990, assets owned by branches of foreign banks amount to $626.4 billion of which Japanese bank branches hold a 59.4 percent share and of the $154.5 billion worth of assets held by subsidiaries of foreign banks, the share held by Japanese-owned subsidiaries is 41.2 percent. This paper presents an economic analysis of the situation drawing upon the comparative behavior patterns with respect to direct foreign investment of Japanese and U.S. commercial banks.     

How does Bank Capital Affect Bank Profitability and Risk? Evidence from China's WTO Accession

This paper examines how bank capital affects bank profitability and risk in China, and how its impact differed before and after the nation entered the WTO. Our study uses the dynamic generalized method of moments approach with a panel database containing 171 Chinese commercial banks. We find that bank capital has significant influence on bank profitability and risk, but its impact has declined since China joined the WTO in 2001. For different sized groups, the impact of capital on profitability exhibits a distinct trend. The effects of capital on bank risk are different for large and small banks depending on the risk variables used for the Chinese banking industry.     

资管新规下理财子公司对商业银行经营稳定性的影响

资管新规的出台拉开了资产管理领域改革的序幕,其中商业银行理财业务受到强烈冲击,理财子公司应运而生。由于商业银行与其对应的理财子公司之间联系紧密,因此银行理财业务转型可能会带来潜在风险。研究覆盖2017年第二季度至2022年第二季度的银行理财市场,借助Z指标对资管新规背景下银行理财业务转型程度对商业银行经营稳定性影响展开实证研究,发现两者存在负相关关系。由此,对中国资管行业和银行理财市场展开积极展望并提出建议。     

Bank profitability and the bank lending channel: Evidence from China

This paper uses bank-level data to investigate whether the impact of monetary policy on bank lending depends on the characteristics of Chinese banks during the period 1985–2007. We find that the impact of monetary policy on lending is weaker for larger banks and banks with lower levels of liquidity, and that banks’ responses to monetary policy do not necessarily vary according to their capital. Further, to identify the bank lending channel more clearly, we test whether the impact of monetary policy varies according to profitability. The results show that profitable banks tend to be less sensitive to monetary policy, because when tight monetary policy leads to a fall in deposits, less profitable banks face a higher cost of capital.     

Bank risk taking,efficiency, and law enforcement: Evidence from Chinese city commercial banks

We investigate bank risk taking, efficiency and their relation to law enforcement using a unique sample of 133 Chinese city commercial banks across 31 regions for the 1999–2008 period. We find that stronger law enforcement tends to promote greater bank risk taking in the region. Furthermore, employing a stochastic distance function approach, our analysis shows that the performance of Chinese city commercial banks, as measured by bank efficiency, is heavily influenced by the effectiveness of law enforcement in the region. Better legal environment, higher efficiency in the legal system, and stronger protection of intellectual property right are associated with a higher level of efficiency among these banks.     

Capital Structure and Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence from Ghana

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of capital structure on profitability of commercial banks in Ghana. The study used a sample of 21 commercial banks over the period 2000–2014 using panel corrected standard errors and two‐stage least‐squares estimation approaches. The results show that bank capital structure measured as capital‐to‐asset ratio is a robust and positive driver of bank performance (profitability) measures (return on assets and net interest margin). Additionally, the results further indicate that share of customer demand deposit positively affects bank profitability. The positive relationship between the capital‐to‐asset ratio and performance provides support for the bank capitalization policy implemented by the Bank of Ghana. Also, the findings provide evidence in support of the recent upsurge in bank short‐term deposit mobilization strategies and promotions by commercial banks in the country to enhance their deposit base.     

资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响研究——来自新兴经济体的经验证据

资本账户开放对一国宏观经济至关重要。文章总结了资本账户开放影响商业银行风险的财富与估值效应、周期效应、道德风险效应和竞争效应,利用2011-2017年期间22个新兴经济体111家商业银行的微观数据,构建动态面板广义矩估计（GMM）模型实证检验了资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响,并且进行了异质性检验。实证结果显示：（1）资本账户开放与商业银行风险呈正U型关系。（2）资本越雄厚、规模越大的商业银行抵抗资本账户开放影响的能力越强。为避免银行体系风险的过度积累,政府应考虑银行业资本充足情况与宏观经济情况,不断探索宏观审慎工具,合理安排资本账户开放程度。     

The new main bank system

We develop a main bank model where the main bank decides whether or not to raise additional funds from the capital market to continue to invest in a borrowing firm when nonmain banks withdraw funds. We show that the threat of withdrawal of nonmain banks is more likely to force the main bank to perform efficiently in handling troubled loans, thereby preventing problems with zombie firms, if the potential cash flow (liquidation value) of the firm decreases (increases) relative to the amount funded by nonmain banks. The theoretical results provide both efficiency evaluations for the renewal of the main bank relation in Japan after the end of the 1990s and empirical implications for the renewed main bank system.     

我国次级债券市场约束的实证研究

随着我国商业银行次级债券发行的频率加快,次级债券除了作为资本金的补充外,我们应该看到其市场约束作用。文章以2003年以来商业银行发行次级债券的数据为基础,把样本分为两组,一组是以前没有发行过次级债券的,一组是以前有过发行的来进行比较研究,得到结论,次级债券的市场约束作用确实存在,且对已经发行过次级债券的银行要明显显著于未发行过的银行;接着,文章利用Heckman两阶段法用所有数据估计了次级债券的市场约束作用,从而我们可以得到现阶段总体而言,次级债券在我国市场约束作用尽管不强,但已经出现,进行得到一些政策含义,政府要搭建一个次级债券市场约束作用发挥的平台,即实行强制的次级债券制度。     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

资本充足率、存款准备金率与货币政策银行信贷传导——基于银行业市场结构的分析

基于垄断竞争的银行业市场结构,研究银行在受到资本充足率和存款准备金率双重约束条件下,在面对货币政策冲击的情况下所做出的最优信贷决策行为。通过构造贷款市场总体均衡模型,得出以下结论:当银行满足资本充足率和存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道表现出有效性;而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道则表现出无效性。     

Loan Loss Provisions,Earnings, Capital Management and Signalling: Evidence from Indian Banks1

Abstract

The debate on bank capital regulation has in recent years devoted specific attention to the role that bank loan loss provisions play as a part of the overall minimum capital regulatory framework. The paper examines this issue in the Indian context, exploring the available evidence about bank loan loss provisioning in the Indian context. Using data on Indian banks for 1997–2005, evidence is found in favour of both earnings and capital management by Indian banks.     

跨国银行监管理论的新进展

金融市场的统一趋势及其监管范围的不断扩展,引发了银行监管的国际协调问题。跨国银行主要以分行或子行的形式开展国际业务,组织结构的差异同时带来了银行监管方面的差异。本文探讨了跨国银行监管与组织结构的关系,并对国际上关于跨国银行监管理论的最新研究成果进行了综述。随着我国银行业的全面对外开放,跨国银行监管会越来越凸显其重要的现实意义。     

Inferring Accounting Information from Corporate Financing Choices: An Examination of Security Issuances in the Banking Industry*

This study examines the impact of regulatory capital and several of its determinants (i.e., earnings, loan loss provisions, charge‐offs and growth) on bank managers' financing decisions and investors' interpretations of those decisions. The analysis is related to two streams of research. We add to the corporate finance literature that seeks to explain the market's reaction to security issuances by developing and testing a refined set of predictions of the demand for debt and equity capital using a sample of capital‐regulated firms (banks). We extend the accounting literature that links regulatory capital‐management decisions with bank performance by examining whether investors infer that performance. We find that bank managers' financing choices reflect their private information regarding the levels of regulatory capital, earnings, and charge‐offs in the issuance year. We document a negative market reaction to capital‐increasing issuances and a positive reaction to capital‐decreasing issuances. A cross‐sectional analysis of that market reaction indicates that investors infer managers' expectations of earnings in the issuance year.     

Can Chinese banks compete after accession to WTO?

Our answer is no, not at least without fundamental changes on the roles of Chinese banks and on the current unfavourable bank regulations towards domestic banks. As a result of China's accession to World Trade Organization (WTO), foreign banks could compete directly with Chinese banks with little barriers from December 2006. We argue that foreign banks’ expertise and experience in modern banking activities coupled with their interests and regulatory advantages in the traditional Renminbi (RMB) business will lead to a loss of RMB deposits and loans from local banks. Given that Chinese banks are currently ridden with large non-performing loans and low capital adequacy, the foreign bank entry will exert further pressure on the banks’ profitability and solvency. It is likely that the health of Chinese banks will deteriorate further in the post-WTO era.