The state of foresight in food and agriculture: Challenges for impact and participation

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Problems of world food and agriculture: Projections,models and possible approaches

This article is concerned with the global implications of recent work in food and nutrition planning. It is based on the realisation that the world food situation is critical. Two distinct explanatory/ action paradigms that have been adopted by food/nutrition planners and other professional writers are identified and discussed. These approaches are then assessed in the light of forecasting techniques used to explore the future world food situation and more appropriate techniques are proposed.     

Accounting, post-productivism and corporate power in UK food and agriculture

‘In modern capitalism purchase and sale of manufactured foods is as fundamental to social existence as the exchange of a whole gamut of other commodities’ [Giddens, A. The constitution of society. US: University of California Press; 1984, p. 259]. Behind the production of food are networks of people, transactions and accounting that have rarely been examined by accounting researchers. The ‘agri-food’ sector is conflict-ridden and affects all but a very few of the world's population. This paper examines one segment of the industry – the UK – and explores certain elements that impact on the accounting environment of that industry. These are the move towards so-called post-productivist approaches by agricultural businesses and the considerable, yet not always obvious, influence of large agri-food corporations. The shifting asymmetries of power in the sector, which covers farmers, Government and an extensive service sector as well as corporations, are explored using aspects of domination in structuration theory, to elucidate the difficulties faced by farmers that force them to engage with accounting.     

Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

Data and Dogma: The Great Indian Poverty Debate

What happened to poverty in India in the 1990s has been fiercelydebated, both politically and statistically. The debate hasrun parallel to the wider debate about globalization and povertyin the 1990s and is also an important part of that debate. Theeconomic reforms of the early 1990s in India were followed byrates of economic growth that were high by historical standards.The effects on poverty remain controversial, however. The officialnumbers published by the government of India, showing an accelerationin the rate of poverty reduction from 36 percent of the populationin 1993/94 to 26 percent in 1999/2000, have been challengedfor showing both too little and too much poverty reduction.The various claims have often been frankly political, but thereare also many important statistical issues. The debate, reviewedin this article, provides an excellent example of how politicsand statistics interact in an important, largely domestic debate.Although there is no consensus on what happened to poverty inIndia in the 1990s, there is good evidence both that povertyfell and that the official estimates of poverty reduction aretoo optimistic, particularly for rural India. The issues coveredin this article, although concerned with the measurement ofpoverty in India, have wide international relevance—discrepanciesbetween surveys and national accounts, the effects of questionnairedesign, reporting periods, survey nonresponse, repair of imperfectdata, choice of poverty lines, and interplay between statisticsand politics.      

Mandatory Corporate Social Responsibility: The Indian experience

The question we raise is what to do when companies fail to keep pace with societal expectations with respect to their corporate social responsibility (CSR). The response of the Indian government was to make it mandatory for large corporations to spend funds on CSR activities. In this paper, we investigate the success of this legislation both for the companies and the intended beneficiaries. We find that the impact of the legislation has fallen short of expectations both in terms of the volume of CSR expenditure generated and the activities to which it has been directed. In particular, we find that the legislation has had a negative corporate profitability which can impact on the willingness of companies to spend in this area. We conclude that greater care must be taken when implementing mandatory CSR if it is to be effective.     

VAT and agriculture: lessons from Europe

Little has been written about the treatment of agriculture under the value added tax (VAT). This article attempts to fill the void by surveying and evaluating the situation in the Member States of the European Union (EU) and some other countries. Farmers are often exempted from VAT for administrative and political reasons. But this means that the VAT on their inputs cannot be ‘washed out’ through the tax deduction/credit mechanism. It then has to be borne by the farmers themselves or becomes an indeterminate and capricious element in consumer prices. To compensate farmers for the uncompensated VAT on inputs, the EU has devised a flat-rate scheme that permits them to charge a presumptive rate (approximately equal to the effective VAT rate on sector-wide inputs) on their sales to taxable agro-processing firms which, in turn, are permitted to take a deduction for this flat-rate addition from the VAT on their sales. Obviously, the flat-rate scheme is an arbitrary way of trying to achieve equal treatment between exempt and taxable farmers and between exempt farm products and other taxable goods and services. Full taxation, subject to the general threshold, appears to be the preferred choice.     

The future of tourism and globalization: Some critical remarks

Present-day generalizations on the future of tourism see it as a key force in the process of globalization. This paper challenges this notion by pointing out that our knowledge of the real shape of world travel and tourism is still quite limited and that the sketchy evidence we can gather with present-day tools thus presents a much more modest picture confronting the claim that tourism has reached a high level of globalization. While it is an activity practiced all over the world, it is scarcely global. In this sense, the perception that tourism is wholeheartedly global and that it mainly connects the richer parts of the world with the poorest pleasure peripheries is but a figment of the post-romantic collective imagination that dominates much tourism research.     

The future of health futures : Another perspective

A good ‘market’ for health futures and easy access to relevant information are among the reasons that health futures is currently centred in the wealthy nations. Interest in health futures is growing in the less developed countries, however, in part because of efforts by WHO and its regional office. Many benefits can be expected if the field becomes more international, including an influx of fresh ideas about health futures study designs and about innovative approaches to health care. A shift to a more global orientation is also imperative simply because health futures deals with the well-being of human beings, and most human beings live in the less developed countries of the world.     

The future of leadership: reframing the unknown

Accepting the arguments of Donald Michael's article, this essay focuses on the need to understand patterns of denial and affirmation as they affect efforts at consensus formation. Leadership is presented as an interface role, orchestrating the exposure to light and shadow, between that which can be communicated (to followers) and that which cannot. The challenge for leadership is portrayed as one of navigating through shifting patterns of affirmation and denial. This challenge is represented in terms of four zones ranging from simple consensus, through situations undermined by unwritten rules, to a zone in which neither assertion nor denial is relevant. The latter is seen as more typical of Eastern approaches to governance. It is argued that complementary patterns of affirmation and denial are essential to the processes of sustainable communities.     

The world food supply : Physical limitations

The article reviews the present inputs—land, water, light, chemicals—and their possible or likely development. Consideration of the losses inherent in the food-supply chain, eg crop fractionation or conversion, will often lead to a recommendation for a change of policy—if the goal is to maximise food supply from the available resources.     

创新和资本互动:"兴农"的浪漫选择?——记2006中国ZPARK国际融资论坛

今年11月16日,由中国进出口银行和本刊联合主办的2006中国ZPARK国际融资论坛(以下简称国际融资论坛)的焦点就是把融资和新农村建设联系在一起.     

农业产业化始终是解决“三农”问题的关键——兼论订单农业中的利益机制和履约机制

对于。三农”问题,已经成为我国党和政府的重点工作,也是能否实现建设社会主义新农村的关键。为提高农民收入、缩小城乡居民收入差距,国家实行工业反哺农业,城市支持农村的政策,实行城乡统筹、城乡一体化政策,这都是为了支持农业发展、提高农民收入。然而解决“三农”问题最为核心的依然是依靠农业产业化的推进,带动农民致富。实践证明,这对发展现代农业、促进科技进步在农业中的作用、推动农民组织化程度的提高、带动农民与市场对接等都是一种有效的途径。农业产业化也是国际上推动农业发展、农民致富共同的路径。     

The future of morality

Moral criticism of human institutions is frequent : the acceptance of social constraints by the free individual is rare. This moral inversion is inconsistent with the survival of an increasingly interdependent society. Statements of human rights must be replaced by statements of human responsibility if we are to make the world viable.     

The Era of finance: Proposals for the future

Finance, the economic activity intermediating between savings and investments, is probably the first to reach the stage of globalization; as a consequence, the financial sector is taking a leading position in modern economic systems. While the world expects from financial efficiency an increasingly positive contribution to welfare, it appears that recent developments of financial leadership in an increasingly deregulated world system, are also acting negatively on world welfare. In many aspects, it can be established that finance is crisis prone, induces deflationary biases and stimulates speculative behaviour: crisis, deflation and speculation are often harmful to the real economy. A set of proposals are made in order to improve world financial stabilization, promote growth and encourage the spirit of enterprise, as a way of enhancing the future contribution of financial activities to world welfare.