区域贸易协定如何影响FDI选择——基于三国自由资本模型的研究

本文以三国自由资本模型为基础,考察差异化收入水平和生产率条件下区域贸易协定对FDI流向和流量的影响。结果发现:(1)多数情况下,FDI会从区外向区内流动,更多流向区内高收入成员国。(2)当区域自由化程度越高,区内外国家劳动生产率差异越大,或区外国家收入水平越高时,有越多的FDI从区外流向区内;当区域自由化程度越高,区内外国家劳动生产率差异越大,或区内国家收入水平差异越大时,FDI的区内流量越大。基于此,本文指出:为了获取更多的国际生产资本,各国都应积极主动加入自由贸易协定;积极发展深度一体化的区域贸易协定;区内落后国家应高度关注成立区域贸易协定后的利益分配,提升劳动生产率有利于改善区内落后国家的生产效应。     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.     

Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey

This article updates the May 1989 literature survey on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region published in this journal. Following an overview of trends of FDI in the 1990s, it focuses on three key issues: the impact of the recent Asian economic crisis on FDI inflow relative to other forms of capital inflows; the link between FDI and trade; and technology transfer and adaptation. It is too early to discern the implications of the crisis for host-country policies and investment decisions of multinational corporations, but the indications are that FDI will continue to play a pivotal role in economic transformation, and in regional and global economic integration.     

People's Republic of China and its Neighbours: evidence on regional trade and investment effects

The very rapid economic growth of the People's Republic of China (PRC), its dramatic success in world export markets and its heavy receipts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have generated much thought and debate in policy and business circles in different parts of the world. This paper surveys evidence from research by ADB Institute staff and Visiting Fellows conducted over the last two years that sheds light on these issues. The paper examines differences in trade structure between the PRC and its trading partners, finding that the PRC's current structure is closest to that of Korea and Taipei, China in 1990. It also considers changes in market share and finds that the PRC exports are eroding the market share of its regional neighbours in the USA and Japan, particularly in products in which trading partners are most specialised. There is no evidence of FDI diversion from elsewhere in the region to PRC. The trade diversion effects in the US and Japan are offset however by strong trade creation as the rapid growth in PRC leads to a substantial rise in its imports.
The paper surveys the projections of models that demonstrate the gains in greater trade and income for the region from closer trade links with the PRC. The broad conclusion that emerges is that whilst there may be risks to individual sectors in all countries concerned, the pattern of regional trade and investment that is emerging is mutually beneficial, provided enterprises and governments representing the PRC's regional partners respond effectively to the adjustments required.     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

中国当前FTA贸易效应分析与比较

根据2002-2010年中国进出口数据,利用混合效应面板数据模型,考察中国当前FTA的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应,得出如下结论:中国参与FTA产生的贸易创造效应明显,而贸易转移效应较少;中国参与FTA明显推动了中国出口,而对进口影响因伙伴国不同而有所差异;FTA成立时间越长,体现出的贸易创造和贸易转移效应越明显;FTA的贸易效应与伙伴国经济发展水平密切相关;FTA伙伴国地理距离越近,贸易效应越明显。中国应选择经济互补性强、资源丰富、市场潜力大的国家缔结FTA,逐步扩大区域经济合作的地域范围,建立更广泛的区域经济合作伙伴关系。     

Impact of Foreign Bank Presence on Foreign Direct Investment in China

We analyze the impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. The connection between the two could be particularly relevant for an emerging economy like China because the supply of financial services provided by banks may act as a constraining factor. Foreign bank presence may then enable and foster FDI and not simply result from it. Our estimates demonstrate that FDI across regions in China is increasing in the existing network of regional branches of foreign banks, which itself is driven (and, therefore, instrumented) by the timing of the regional phasing out of the local limits for foreign banks on local currency business. The effect of foreign bank presence on FDI is particularly strong for some specific sectors (farming, manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale/retail trade and real estate) if those sectors are strongly represented in the source economies.     

Human capital,FTAs and foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN in a gravity model using the bilateral FDI data from 2000 to 2009. In particular, we study the key factors that determine the FDI flows into the region including human capital development and whether membership of a bilateral or regional trade agreement has a differential impact on FDI flows using an extended gravity model. The empirical results indicate that free trade agreements do have positive impact on FDI inflows. However, the returns on FDI inflows depend on the domestic absorptive capacity of the economy and region. It is imperative for ASEAN to align its infrastructure, human capital and technologies to provide MNCs with the necessary linkages to the global network and also to move the domestic industries seamlessly up the global production value-chain. The paper highlights that this is crucial for deeper ASEAN integration and for sustainable growth in the region.     

Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements

We argue that competitive diffusion is a driver of the trend toward international investment agreements with stricter investment rules, namely defensive moves of developing countries concerned about foreign direct investment (FDI) diversion in favor of competing host countries. Accounting for spatial dependence in the formation of bilateral investment treaties and preferential trade agreements that contain investment provisions, we find that the increase in agreements with stricter provisions on investor-to-state dispute settlement and pre-establishment national treatment is a contagious process. Specifically, a developing country is more likely to sign an agreement with weak investment provisions if other developing countries that compete for FDI from the same developed country have previously signed agreements with similarly weak provisions. Conversely, contagion in agreements with strong provisions exclusively derives from agreements with strong provisions that other FDI-competing developing countries have previously signed with a specific developed source country of FDI.     

南南型区域经济一体化能否促进FDI流入?——中国-东盟自由贸易区引资效应分析

随着区域经济一体化程度的加深,发展中国家逐渐将吸引FDI作为参与区域经济一体化的主要目标。本文以古诺数量竞争模型为基础构建了一个三国模型,指出区内贸易壁垒下降可以促进跳过关税型投资和重组性平台投资。通过对中国、东盟地区1992年——2004年FDI影响因素进行检验,指出市场规模、进口额、工资水平、对区内市场的开放程度等因素对FDI流入有影响。中国一东盟自由贸易区通过影响上述因素而提高区位优势,促进区内FDI流入的整体水平,同时中国相对于东盟国家的优势可以使一体化条件下厂商增加在中国的重组性投资。     

粤港澳湾区市场一体化对该地区FDI的影响——基于固定效应及异质性检验的分析

运用粤港澳湾区2001—2018年的商品市场一体化指数,通过固定效应模型实证研究市场一体化对粤港澳湾区外商直接投资(FDI)的影响并进行异质性检验.结果显示:粤港澳湾区的市场一体化指数与FDI负相关,市场一体化指数越高,FDI反而减少;同时,滞后的市场一体化指数与FDI具有显著的负相关关系,而不同地区的市场一体化程度对外商投资有不同的影响.在此基础上,政府应当积极制定引导政策,大力推进高素质人才建设,并坚持对外开放,同时针对地区差异因势利导,发挥优势促进经济内循环.     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.     

The effects of regional trade agreements on FDI by its origin and type: Evidence from U.S. multinational enterprises activities

The effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) depend on both the origin and type of FDI. To estimate the various effects of RTAs, I differentiate between various types of FDI by using data on the sales destinations of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs), while also addressing the endogeneity of RTA formation. Consistent with the theory of MNEs, I find that RTAs reduce horizontal FDI from intra-RTA countries and increase export-platform and total FDI from extra-RTA countries. Moreover, the overall effects of RTAs are positive for extra-RTA FDI, but inconclusive for intra-RTA FDI. The results also support the effect of integrated markets’ economies of scale in inducing extra-RTA FDI.     

FDI、进出口贸易对中国经济增长影响的区域差异研究

本文采用中国东、中、西部的1993年至2007年的年度样本数据,运用协整理论和VAR模型等现代计量方法,定量分析了FDI、进出口贸易对东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响的动态关系。研究发现,东、中、西部地区的FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系;东部和中部地区的进口贸易均是经济增长的Granger原因,FDI和出口贸易仅在东部构成了经济增长的Granger原因;脉冲函数和方差分解也表明,在不同的区域条件约束下,FDI、进出口贸易对经济增长的冲击并无稳定一致的关系。     

Reviving Foreign Direct Investments in Southern Africa: Constraints and Policies

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the factors that determine the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to SADC member states, which is critical for introducing widespread technological change, complementing domestic investment, improving the agility and competitiveness of firms, and providing access to skills and global markets. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, FDI flows to SADC have improved significantly increasing from an annual average of only $660 million in 1985–95 to about $5.9 billion in 2000–04. A number of countries in the region have taken additional steps to reform their policy stance in order to boost prospects for increased FDI inflows, while South Africa has now become an important growth pole for attracting foreign investment to the region. However, despite the economic and institutional reforms, especially by some of the low‐income countries in the region, the flow of FDI to SADC member states remains low and concentrated in few countries and sectors. The paper identifies a number of factors constraining FDI inflows, including the small size of the regional economy, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty in some important economies, high administrative barriers, inadequate physical infrastructure, weak financial systems, and growing perception of corruption. The paper argues that SADC member states need to strengthen efforts to enhance policy frameworks, both individually and collectively, in order to make the region attractive for foreign investors. More progress is required on improving the efficiency of institutions, macroeconomic policy co‐ordination and harmonization, opening up to trade, strengthening energy, transport and telecommunications infrastructure, putting more resources in developing local skills, reducing bureaucratic red tape and curbing corruption. Importantly, SADC member states should avoid heated competition or “bidding wars” for FDI, where countries seek to outbid each other in offering fiscal and financial subsidies to attract foreign investors. Competition for FDI between neighbouring countries is not only wasteful and costly, but may also weaken regional co‐operation and integration. Co‐operation at a SADC level may therefore help avoid costly bidding wars.     

我国高技术产业创新绩效与区域差异性研究

采用我国2000—2010年26省市的高技术产业面板数据,对国内研发、技术转移和国外技术溢出与高技术产业的创新绩效关系进行实证研究。同时,考虑到省市间经济发展水平和创新能力存在较大差异,又把26个省市按照经济发展水平划分为三个区域,分别考察各区域的创新绩效。研究发现,本国科研人员投入及技术转移对技术发明起到明显的促进作用,科研人员投入等本国要素及FDI、出口贸易等国外因素则对产业创新有较为显著的作用。各因素对不同收入水平的地区有明显的地区差异性:国内研发等要素投入对高收入地区的技术创新促进性作用比较明显,而FDI等因素对低收入地区整体创新能力均产生明显的积极效应。因此需要根据各地区的经济发展水平和创新能力制定相应的科技政策。     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.     

区域投资实际汇率、FDI与经济增长

文章基于跨境投资视角测度中国2000~2017年29省时变权重的区域投资实际有效汇率(RIREER),并将汇率、FDI与经济增长纳入同一分析框架构建理论模型。在此基础上,从汇率水平和波动两维度深入考察经由FDI渠道对区域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,RIREER升值有助于吸引FDI,进而对东道国(地区)经济扩张产生积极作用,该积极作用在沿海地区效果更为显著,拉大了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但RIREER升值对FDI的边际吸引力递减。RIREER波动导致FDI流出,对东道国(地区)经济产生负向冲击,该负向经济冲击对沿海地区影响更为明显,缩小了沿海与内陆经济增长差距,但汇率风险增大引发FDI流出的边际作用递减。     

Trade effects of foreign direct investment: Evidence for Taiwan with four ASEAN countries

Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence for Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. —This paper examines the trade effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) between Taiwan and each of the following four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Regression results show that Taiwan's outward FDI has a significant positive effect on exports to and imports from the host country, whereas no such effects were consistently found for inward FDI from the same country.     

FDI、对外贸易对中部经济增长影响的实证分析

本文利用中部地区1993年至2007年年度样本数据,应用协整理论及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学方法,定量分析了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,中部地区经济增长在短期内与对外贸易互为Granger原因,而外商直接投资在短期内与中部经济增长不构成Granger因果关系;经济增长对对外贸易的波动冲击表现出较大的正向效应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小,同时方差分解也表明对外贸易在中部经济增长预测误差的方差贡献度中所占比重最大。