Should Policy-Based Lending Still Involve Conditionality?

Traditional conditionality in policy-based lending is oftencriticized as being ineffective, intrusive, and corrosive. Disillusionmenthas led to proposals to replace ex ante conditionality withex post conditionality and to focus on ownership, selectivity,and partnerships. This article reviews experiences with conditionalityin the World Bank's policy-based lending and explores the benefitsand drawbacks of various approaches. It argues that conditionalityshould play a central role in policy-based lending—butcannot substitute for country ownership and good policies. Moreover,an exclusive focus on conditionality based on ex ante commitmentsor ex post results may not be practical or useful for the Bank'spolicy-based lending. Thus a key recommendation is to use conditionalityselectively, tailored to country circumstances. Indeed, an eclecticmix of traditional and new approaches is already being used—withprogrammatic policy-based lending offering a particularly promisingway to reconcile the debate between the traditional ex anteapproach and the aspirations of a results-based approach toconditionality.      

REFORM OF TRADE POLICY: Recent Evidence from Theory and Practice

In the 1980s many developing countries began to recognize thatrestrictive trade policies can constrain growth. To facilitatetrade and integration into the world economy, many countrieshave embarked on reform programs. This survey synthesizes theconclusions of the literature on trade policy reform with thoseof a recent study by the World Bank analyzing reforms in developingcountries, particularly those supported by adjustment lendingprograms. Its objective is to shed light on some of the questionsabout these programs to guide policymakers in the future. Thearticle reviews conditions in these countries before trade policyreforms were implemented and examines how much reform actuallytook place. It also examines the effects of the reforms on economicperformance and reviews the factors that constrained the reformprocess. The survey considers the most important issues in designingand implementing trade policy reforms and concludes that althoughpast reforms have had a positive impact, future programs shouldemphasize three elements: reducing the level of protection,maintaining macroeconomic stability, and accounting for theconflicts and complementarities with other policies.      

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

A comprehensive macroeconomic adjustment program is expectedto have the following objectives: a sustainable current accountposition, a stable and high rate of economic growth that wouldallow for a steady rise in per capita consumption, a reducedrate of inflation, and a manageable level of foreign debt. Thepackage designed to meet these objectives would typically includepolicy measures that simultatenously restrain aggregate demandand increase the availability of resources. These policies maybe grouped as follows: demand-management policies, structuralpolicies, exchange rate policies, and external financing policies.This article describes how these policies can be expected toachieve the goal of macroeconomic adjustment. The focus is primarilyon the theoretical and empirical links between policy instrumentsand ultimate objectives. An examination of these links is necessarybefore issues of the appropriate mix of demand-management, structural,exchange rate, and external policies, and the sequencing ofthese policies in a program, can be properly addressed.      

Let's lessen conditionality in times of force majeure events. The archaic righteousness of the policy of conditionality of international Institutions amid COVID-19

This article investigates how international decision-making's conditionality aids countries during strenuous economic conditions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines and contrasts the European Union's conditionality policies, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank as the more influential and leading groups of institutions. The article reveals notable policy differences. As opposed to that of the IMF and WB, the EU's approach is more comprehensive and not confined to economic considerations. Those variations aside, the article draws on the same premise: expectations of compliance with the set conditions. While in-depth, structural requirements could guide ordinary decision-making and build up resilient national institutions and policies, this article questions the merits of large-scale comprehensive terms in the face of a situation created by a force majeure or a humanly uncontrollable event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. With no more initial research addressing the specific question of the application and adequacy of conditionality to force majeure emergencies or pandemic situations of the scale of COVID-19, this article argues in favor of a measured and targeted response limited to the development, design, or determination of policy choices that tackle the intended purpose. Also, for validly practical considerations that search for to ensure the better use of aid and avoid distracting or overburdening the recipient countries to the point of risking losses of devastating proportions, the article proposes to revise and limit conditionality during force majeure events to the essential aspects of transparent management of funds for the sole intended purpose. This in itself is a distinct democratic exercise of efficient and accountable public management decision-making.     

IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis

This paper has three objectives. First, using a richer and more comprehensive set of IMF-related news than previous studies, we examine the impact of IMF-related news on both financial and real stock sector returns in Indonesia during the Asian crisis. Second, we draw lessons about financial and real sectoral patterns of adjustment in crisis countries, including whether and how IMF programs facilitate this adjustment. Third, we explore the interplay between IMF actions in crisis countries and the actions and responses of local authorities. To do so, not only do we account for the impact of news regarding IMF policy actions but also the government’s reaction to them and willingness to implement such policies, and the public sentiment about the implemented IMF programs and government policies. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ECONOMIC POLICY REFORM?

The recent wave of democratization in developing countries andin formerly communist ones has sparked renewed interest in therelation between politics and economic adjustment. Adjustmentprograms, however well designed in a technical economic sense,are often politically difficult to launch and, once launched,to keep afloat. Success in implementing an adjustment programmay depend on a government's skill in generating political supportand holding off the opposition. This article explores the politicsof economic reform, drawing on country studies by politicalscientists and country specialists, the growing theoreticalliterature by economists, and the findings of a World Bank researchproject on the political economy of adjustment in new democracies.The article examines three broad clusters of variables: institutionalcharacteristics of the political system, aspects of the internaland external economy, and the design of the reform program.It also considers the relevance of political analysis for policymakersand for international financial institutions.      

EVALUATING SOCIAL POLICIES: PRINCIPLES AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

Invariably, studies, proposals, and plans for social programscontain a strong recommendation for evaluation and monitoring.Reliable information about what works and why is clearly vitalfor improving existing programs or designing future ones. Makingsuch assessments requires effective methods of evaluation. Policymakerswho use these evaluations need to know about the methods—the pitfalls to watch for and the relative advantages and disadvantagesof different techniques in different situations. This articledescribes these evaluation methods and the experience accumulatedin the United States in applying them in practice.      

STABILIZATION POLICIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The article focuses on the design of stabilization measuresto correct excessive balance of payments deficits and moderatethe rate of inflation. It distinguishes three sources of balanceof payments difficulties—excessively expansionary aggregatedemand policies; domestic supply shocks stemming, for example,from increases in real wages in excess of productivity growth;and external terms of trade shocks. It also analyzes the effectsof devaluations. The second part of the article discusses policiesaimed at reducing the rate of inflation and summarizes the theoreticalliterature on the dynamics and the transitional costs of adjustmentto lower rates of inflation in closed economies. Evidence onthe adjustment costs of disinflationary policies is reviewed,and the discussion is extended to some recent analysis of adjustmentin open economies.      

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The short-run adjustment problem in developing countries involvesboth the improvement of the current account and the reductionof inflation. In both cases, the usual reason for adjustmentis shown to be the fiscal deficit. The article distinguishesprimary adjustment costs, which are inevitable, from secondarycosts, which result, for example, from failure to devalue orfrom real wage rigidity. The article then analyzes the effectsof expenditure reduction and currency devaluation on varioussectors of the economy. Reducing inflation involves both aninflation tax replacement and a price adjustment problem, and"heterodox" policies designed to deal with the latter are discussed.If the fiscal deficit cannot be reduced, the article argues,improving the current account may be at the cost of increasinginflation and likewise reducing inflation may be at the costof worsening the current account.      

WHAT MAKES RURAL FINANCE INSTITUTIONS SUCCESSFUL?

Providing affordable credit to the rural population has longbeen a prime component of development strategy. Governmentsand donors have sponsored and supported supply-led rural financeinstitutions both to improve growth and equity and to neutralizeor mitigate urban-biased macroeconomic policies. But becauseof high risks, heavy transaction costs, and mounting loan losses,many of the programs have drained state resources to littlepurpose, reaching only a small part of the rural populationand making little progress toward self-sustainability. There are, however, a few success stories. This article reviewsthe policies, modes of operation, incentives, and financialperformance of four publicly sponsored programs in Asia thatare widely perceived to be successful, to find out what economic,social, and institutional factors contributed to their success.      

WHEN DO HETERODOX STABILIZATION PROGRAMS WORK?: Lessons from Experience

What advantages and disadvantages does the heterodox strategyoffer to stabilization programs in countries with chronic highinflation? Heterodox stabilization programs, in our definition,are those that support orthodox policies— that is, tightfiscal policy and a fixed exchange rate—with the initial,temporary use of incomes policies— that is, price andwage controls. This evaluation, based on several heterodox programs,successful and unsuccessful, from the 1960s and 1980s in LatinAmerican countries and Israel, affords four principal lessons: * The rapid reduction in inflation at the beginning of heterodoxprograms (which usually comes about at small cost) is the easypart; the problem is to maintain price stability over time. * Incomes policies in heterodox stabilization programs are justifiedonly in countries with high chronic inflation, where persistentinflation is more pervasive and problematic. * There is a case for a bigger fiscal adjustment in heterodoxthan in orthodox programs because of the risk that a programwith price controls may be misperceived as a populist devicefor achieving price stability without adjusting. * The failure of a heterodox program is more likely to destabilizeinflation than is the failure of an orthodox program.      

Appraising Workfare

Workfare programs aim to reduce poverty by providing low-wagework to those who need it. They are often turned to in a crisis.This article offers some simple analytical tools that can beused to rapidly appraise the cost-effectiveness of an existingworkfare operation as a basis for deciding whether the programshould be expanded. For pedagogic purposes, two stylized versionsof a range of programs found in practice are analyzed: one fora middle-income country, the other for a low-income country.The cost of a given gain to the poor is about the same for bothprograms, although the components of that cost are very different,with implications for the timing of benefits. The author pointsto program design changes that could enhance the impact on poverty.      

Adjustment with IMF lending

Adjustment programs supported by the IMF are frequently criticized by creditor countries as involving conditions which are too lax or, once violated, too easily modified or pushed aside. At least as frequently, these same conditions are criticized by international debtors, or those adopting their interests, for being too harsh and rigid. Neither side has explained very well (1) how exactly the Fund impinges on the path of adjustment a country would choose unaided and what that path is, (2) why the Fund must be expected to accelerate adjustment to safeguard its objectives, and (3) what limits the Fund's ability to do so. This paper attempts a theoretical deduction showing how this two-sided conflict arises from the Fund's obligation to adjudicate benefits and costs in negotiating programs acceptable not only to its debtor, but also to its creditor countries.     

The Evolution of the World Bank's Land Policy: Principles, Experience, and Future Challenges

This article examines the evolution of policy recommendationsconcerning rural land issues since the formulation of the WorldBank's "Land Reform Policy Paper" in 1975. That paper set outthree guiding principles: the desirability of owner-operatedfamily farms; the need for markets to permit land to be transferredto more productive users; and the importance of an egalitarianasset distribution. In the 25 years since that paper was published,these guiding principles have remained the same, but it is nowrecognized that communal tenure systems can be more cost-effectivethan formal title, that titling programs should be judged ontheir equity as well as their efficiency, that the potentialof land rental markets has often been severely underestimated,that land-sale markets enhance efficiency only if they are integratedinto a broader effort at developing rural factor markets, andthat land reform is more likely to result in a reduction ofpoverty if it harnesses (rather than undermines) the operationof land markets and is implemented in a decentralized fashion.Achieving land policies that incorporate these elements requiresa coherent legal and institutional framework together with greaterreliance on pilot programs to examine the applicability of interventionsunder local conditions.      

ISSUES IN MEDIUM-TERM MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT

Four years after the onset of the world debt crisis, the issueis how to restore growth. The answer is structural adjustment,both macro and micro. At the macro level, adjustments have tobe made to the structure of aggregate demand and supply to restoregrowth while generating the needed trade surpluses. This meansprimarily real exchange rates that are maintained at appropriatelevels and an emphasis on investment. At the micro level, itis argued that most developing countries need to liberalizetrade, allow the price system to operate, develop financialsystems, reform taxes, and improve the efficiency of publicenterprises, perhaps by selling them. The article discussesthe nature of these two types of reforms and the policy andresearch issues relevant to World Bank analysis of growth programs.      

PRIVATIZATION: LESSONS FROM MARKET ECONOMIES

In the past decade governments all over the world have begunprivatizing state enterprises—indeed, it is becoming quitehard to find a country without a program of privatization underway or at least on the policy agenda. This striking reversalof the push to expand state ownership in the 1960s and 1970sresults from generally poor performance of state enterprisesand a disappointing record of past reform efforts that fellshort of ownership change. This article examines the objectives of privatization and thestrategies for achieving them, documenting recent trends andreviewing the experience with privatizing state-owned commercial,manufacturing, and service enterprises in both competitive andnoncompetitive markets. The authors analyze the various tacticsthat can be or have been employed, in relation to scope, pace,sequencing, and methods of implementation. The evidence showsthat privatization produces benefits of efficiency and innovation—ifdone right. The lessons of experience discussed in the articleoffer guidance on how to realize the promise of privatizationwhile minimizing the risks and costs.      

THE DEBT CRISIS: WHERE DO WE STAND AFTER SEVEN YEARS?

The past seven years have seen little improvement in the worlddebt situation. During this period, policymakers have shiftedtheir attention from demand reduction by debtor nations to supplyexpansion. Most recently, debt reduction has become the principalissue. This article reviews various ways of resolving the debt problem.There is widespread agreement among competing proposals thatan efficient solution requires both debt reduction and economicgrowth in debtor countries. Disagreement arises over whetherthe necessary debt reduction and consequent adjustment in policiesin developing countries can be generated by market forces alone.The alternative is usually thought to be intervention by governmentsand commitment of public funds. This article groups and analyzesproposed solutions according to their relation to these twopositions. The survey concludes that there is no clear-cut solution tothe problem. Methods vary widely in their implications for efficiencyand equity as well as in their capacity to improve the situationand to do so quickly. Inevitably, official policy will continueto be determined less by economic ideals than by exigencies.The more urgent the problem becomes, the more likely the balanceis to swing from reliance on the market to direct intervention.      

IN SEARCH OF OWNERS: PRIVATIZATION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

Experiments in privatizing enterprises in transition economiesabound, from extensive efforts at sales to strategic owners(as in Estonia and Hungary), to programs based primarily oninsider buyouts (as in Russia and Slovenia), to innovative massprivatization programs involving the creation of large and powerfulnew financial intermediaries (as in the Czech and Slovak republicsand Poland). Each approach has inherent strengths and risks.But if the objectives are to sever the links between the stateand the enterprises, to school the population in market basics,and to foster further ownership change, the initial weight ofevidence seems to favor significant reliance on voucher privatization,especially given the difficulty most countries have findingwilling cash investors.      

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey

What role does trade play in international technology transfer?Do technologies introduced by multinational firms diffuse tolocal firms? What kinds of policies have proved successful inencouraging technology absorption from abroad and why? Usingthese questions as motivation, this article surveys the recenttrade literature on international technology transfer, payingparticular attention to the role of foreign direct investment.The literature argues that trade necessarily encourages growthonly if knowledge spillovers are international in scope. Empiricalevidence on the scope of knowledge spillovers (national versusinternational) is ambiguous. Several recent empirical plant-levelstudies have questioned earlier studies that argued that foreigndirect investment has a positive impact on the productivityof local firms. Yet at the aggregate level, evidence supportsthe view that foreign direct investment has a positive effecton economic growth in the host country.