THE CREATION OF A MICRODATA FILE FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME*

This paper describes the methods used by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, in creating a microdata file for use in estimating the size distribution of income. It explains the techniques of statistical matching involved in merging microdata files from various sources to correct and supplement income estimates in the original field survey (The Current Population Survey) and to incorporate additional information that can be used to estimate items and types of income not contained in the original file.     

ESTIMATING THE RANK OF COINTEGRATION AFTER ESTIMATING THE ORDER OF A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION*

Small sample properties are studied for the maximum likelihood test in determining the rank of cointegration. Firstly, some statistical methods are developed to determine the lag order of the vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes with unit roots. The asymptotic x² distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is proved. Then the asymptotic standard normal distribution of the t-ratio is established for coefficients of differenced variables in the error correction representation. The t-ratio can be used to test the significance of individual coefficients in the highest order term of VAR processes without using any information on co-integration. The small sample properties of the likelihood ratio test, the t-test, AIC, and BIC are explored by simulations which are found indispensable in finding the order of VAR processes possibly with unit roots. Furthermore, and most importantly, our simulation shows that the trace test for finding the rank of co-integration does not depend much on the lag order selection criteria. Whichever procedure is used to find the lag order of a VAR process, the trace or the maximum eigen value test may on average give a similar rank of co-integration though this can be wrong.     

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF AN INCOME TAX

The paper proposes an indicator of the performance of a tax and benefit system in generating a high level of social welfare. Under standard assumptions on the form of the admissible social welfare functions, the indicator is shown to be increasing in the progressivity of the system. Using UK household data for 1985, the paper asks (i) What can the performance of a tax system with constant residual progression be? (ii) Relative to a proportional system, what is the performance of existing or proposed tax and benefit systems? (iii) How can we estimate the average residual progression of unevenly progressive tax and benefit systems?     

INCOME REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE TAX SYSTEM: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF TAX REFORM

In this paper, we consider reforming the tax system to a comprehensive income tax model in order to amend the differential treatment of income sources. Our simulation analysis shows that the tax reform improves the effectiveness of the tax system on the redistribution of all sources of income including earned income, financial wealth income, and imputed rent. The analysis of incidence of the tax reform suggests that the tax burden for young renters decreases the most and that for young loan-free land owners increases the most through this tax reform.     

中国人才地理特征

中国人才地理分布的主要特点是：①东多西少：②南多北少;③江浙一带最密集。这些特点根植于气候、地貌和海岸线等自然环境以及悠久的历史文化背景。以太湖流域为代表的人才密集区和人才的大规模迁移对我国各地区的社会经济发展有重大影响。中国人才地理特征研究是人文地理、文化地理和历史地理的重要内容。有助于洞察文化资源对当今社会经济发展的深远影响。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY BALANCES AND THE NONNEUTRALITY OF MONEY*

Recent monetary models with explicit microfoundations are made tractable by assuming that agents have access to centralized markets after one round of decentralized trade. Given quasi‐linear preferences, this makes the distribution of money degenerate—which keeps the models simple but precludes the discussion of distributional effects of monetary policy. We generalize these models by assuming two rounds of trade before agents can readjust their money holdings to study a range of new distributional effects analytically. We show that unexpected, symmetric lump‐sum money injections may increase short‐run output and welfare, whereas asymmetric injections may increase long‐run output and welfare.     

EVALUATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE*

This article evaluates the distribution of public expenditure on subsidized goods and services over income categories. It is argued that undifferentiated application of usual measures of dispersion must be rejected when judging the distribution of these expenditures, because there are hardly any subsidized goods and services for which the government aims at equal consumption. Such an application requires a normative distribution of expenditure. The normative distribution of expenditure is derived from a normative distribution of consumption and the distribution of normative charges. Central elements are needs of consumers and their financial capacity. The normative distribution of consumption is based on government intentions with respect to the goods and services under consideration.